©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us this Saturday to
Louisiana, the Pelican State, where Mo
Town will go
to the starting gate as the lukewarm 7-2 morning-line favorite in what appears
to be a wide open 45th running of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes
(G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time is 6:00 PM ET.
Mo
Town has not raced since last November and he comes into this race for trainer
Anthony Dutrow with a 2-1-0 record in three starts including a 2 ½ length win
in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
MO TOWN raced
three wide on the clubhouse bend, rapidly moved up to latch on to TAKAFUL as
the tempo softened during the setting of the second split, was patiently ridden
keeping an eye on that foe all throughout the run on the far turn, narrowed in
after three-quarters had been reached, spun into the lane directly alongside
the one to catch, challenged in earnest when switched over to a drive in the
vicinity of the three-sixteenths marker, took charge during the ensuing
sixteenth, steadily added to the margin, kept busy to the end.
Mo
Town’s victory in this race established him as a top contender in last year’s
herd of two year old runners and it remains to be seen if he can continue to
improve as a three year old.
Uncle
Mo, the sire
of Mo Tom, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the
Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was
picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.
As
a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in
the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo
was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed
as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.
Mo
Town has not raced in three months but he has been training well. A couple of
recent bullet works could have him ready to run a good race in his debut as a
three year old.
Local
Hero (4-1)
comes into this race for trainer Steve Asmussen with a 1-2-0 record in three
starts including a blowout maiden win by 7¼ lengths in his last race. Here’s
the video and chart call of that race:
LOCAL HERO bumped
with a rival at the start, set the pace on the inside, responded well when set
down in upper stretch, drew off under a moderate hand ride into the final
sixteenth then was eased up while much the best.
Local
Hero was geared down at the finish and his finish time of 1:42.49 is much the
best of all the other horses in this race that have run at that distance.
Hard
Spun, the sire
of Local Hero, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old, including wins
in the Port Penn Stakes and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. As a three year old on
the Derby trail, Hard spun was 2-0-0 in three starts including wins in the Le
Comte Stakes (G3) and Lane’s End Stakes (G2).
Hard
Spun went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the
Preakness Stakes (G1) and rounded out his classic campaign with a fourth-place
finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Local
Hero is stepping in class and he has room to improve off of his maiden win victory.
With a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® grade
rating, he has the breeding to be competitive in this race and potential to
earn graded stakes honors in his second start as a three year old.
Untrapped (10-1) is also trained by
Asmussen and he comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record in three starts
including a second-place finish in the LeComte Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
UNTRAPPED raced
in the two path on the first turn, settled towards the front, was urged along
in the two path on the far turn, waited behind horses turning into the stretch,
shifted out from behind rivals a the three-sixteenths, chased until the final
sixteenth, drifted out late and finished with good courage to get the place.
Untrapped
finished a respectable second in his debut as a three year old and with a B Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating, he has the breeding to be
competitive in this race.
Trappe
Shot, the sire
of Wild Shot, raced mostly in sprints from the age of two to four, compiling a
6-2-0 record in 12 starts with $703,884 in career earnings. His best stakes
victories were in the six furlong Waldoboro Stakes, True North Handicap (G2)
and he did stretch out to win the 8½ furlong Long Branch Stakes. In other route
races, Trappe Shote finished second in the nine-furlong Izod Haskell
Invitational (G1) and ninth in the Travers Stakes (G1).
To
date, Trappe Shot’s best runner on the Kentucky Derby Trail has been My
Man Sam who
finished second in the nine furlong 2016 Toyota Blue Grass (G1) stakes.
In
the LeComte (G3), Untrapped was closing ground in the stretch but run out of
running room. I look for him to improve in his second start of the season.
Guest
Suite (6-1) comes
into this race for trainer Neil Howard with a 3-0-2 record in five starts
including a 1¼ length win in the LeComte Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
GUEST SUITE went
three wide on the first turn, settled nicely in the middle of the field, was
roused three wide then four wide on the far turn, rallied five wide into the
stretch, closed strongly to get the lead at the three-sixteenths, inched clear
inside the furlong marker and held under steady urging.
Guest
Suite was able to score the win in his debut as a three year old and it remains
to be seen if he can extend his winning streak in the Risen Star (G2).
Quality
Road, the sire
of Frank Conversation, easily won his maiden debut, and only race as a two year
old, in November of 2008. In his debut as a three year old, he finished second
in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in January. He followed that in
February with a 4¼ length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and in
March, Quality Road ran to a 1¾ length win over Dunkirk in the Florida Derby (G1).
In
late April, Quality Road developed a quarter crack on his right front foot and
that prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby. After a three month
break, Quality Road returned to racing to win the Amsterdam Stakes (G2).
Quality
Road completed his racing career with wins in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3), Donn
Handicap (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Woodward Stakes (G1). He finished
third in the Travers Stakes (G1) and second in both the Jockey Club Gold Cup
Stakes (G1) and Whitney Handiciap (G1).
With
a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating Guest Suite has the
breeding to be competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
Honorable
mention goes to Horse Fly (30-1), Cool
Arrow (15-1)
and Arklow (15-1), and it would not be a
surprise if any of these made it into the exotics. One horse I’m going to pay
special attention to is Horse Fly who is the best bred horse in this race with
an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating.
To
date, Horse Fly has yet to live up to his breeding but he appears to be
improving. Whether he can earn graded stakes honors remains to be seen. If
he looks good in the post parade, Horse Fly may be worth a wager.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Southwest
Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4
points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive one point.
The
pace on the Derby Trail really begins to quicken next weekend on February 25
with the Risen Star Stakes (G2) as the debut race of the Championship Series,
which consists of 16 races. The winner of those races will receive 50 points,
the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will
receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway
through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2)
on March 25, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for
second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Classic
Empire, 32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
2. El Areeb, 20,
Cathal Lynch, $300,000
3. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
4. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $260,000
5. Gunnevera, 14,
Antonio Sano, $807,200
6. Practical
Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000
7. Lookin At Lee,
12, Steve Asmussen, $325,600
8. Uncontested,
11, Wayne Catalano, $100,729
9. One Liner, 10,
Todd Pletcher, $300,000
10. Irish War
Cry, 10, Graham Motion, $272,660
11. Mastery, 10,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
12. Mo Town, 10,
Tony Dutrow, $180,000
13. Guest Suite,
10, Neil Howard, $128,040
14. Royal Mo, 10,
John Sherriffs, $90,000
15. Petrov, 8,
Ron Moquett, $150,000
16. Irap, 8, Doug
O’Neill, $90,000
17. Wild Shot, 7,
Rusty Arnold, II, $97,200
18. True Timber,
6, Kiaran McLaughlin, $65,000
19. No Dozing, 5,
Arnaud Delacour, $89,000
20. Bonus Points,
5, Todd Pletcher, $52,500
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Here’s the video
of the Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
