Thursday, November 22, 2012

Remsen Stakes Racing Roundup

     Saturday could be a very good day for trainer Todd Pletcher if all three of the horses he has running in the $250,000 Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct racetrack finish in the money.

     Pletcher will send the Dixie Union colt Delhomme to the starting gate as the 2-1 morning line favorite. He also has the Mike Repole coupled-entry of Overanalyze and Micromanage at 4-1 morning line odds.

     Of those three, I like Delhomme the best. Delhomme has yet to run in a stakes race but he should be able to make the step up in class and stretch out to 9-furlongs.

     His sire, Dixie Union, won the 8½-furlong Norfolk Stakes (G2) and the 9-furlong Haskell Invitational Handicap (G1).

     The damsire of Delhomme, Out of Place, was 6-6-5 in 21 dirt routes with multiple stakes race second and third-place finishes and a win in the 9-furlong Clark Handicap (G3).

     Three other horses I like are Indy’s Illusion, Normandy Invasion and Vegas No Show.

     In his last race, Indy’s Illusion ran mid-herd tracking fast fractions and made a nice move in the stretch to break his maiden on his third attempt and win by 1½-lengths at Belmont Park on October 4.

     The time of 1:38 and change for the one mile race over a muddy track was not that impressive but Indy’s Illusion received a 90 Brisnet Speed Figure and I believe he’ll improve off of that effort.

     With A.P. Indy as his sire and Mr. Prospector as the damsire, Indy’s Illusion will not have a problem stretching out to 9-furlongs and if he improves off his last race, he’ll be very competitive.

     His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile is an outstanding 96.25 but I’ve seen a lot of 2-year-olds that, for one reason or another, failed to live up their breeding. Time will tell.

   Normandy Invasion comes into the Remsen with an impressive 9¼-length maiden-breaking romp at Aqueduct on November 2.

     Tapit, the sire of Normandy Invasion, was a decent lightly-raced router with a win in the 8½-furlong Laurel Futurity (G3) and 9-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) en route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

     Boston Harbor, the damsire of Normandy Invasion, was the 1996 champion 2-year-old and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Breeders' Futurity (G2), Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes (G3) and Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes.

     Normandy Invasion received a 92 speed figure for his performance in his last race and I look for him to be competitive in the Remsen.

     Like his sire Hard Spun, who was a gritty competitor on the 2007 Kentucky Derby trail, Vegas No Show showed a lot of spirit in his last race when he was cut off multiple times in the stretch but rallied for second, two lengths behind the undefeated Medaglia d’Oro colt Violence.

     Turkoman, the damsire of Vegas No Show, was a pretty good middle-distance horse that won the Affirmed Handicap (G3), Marlboro Cup Invitational Handicap (G1), Oaklawn Handicap (G2), Widener Handicap (G1) and Tallahassee Handicap.

     Turkoman is also the sire of Turcomedy – the second dam of Vegas No Show.

     Lord Carson, the damsire of Vegas No Show, competed mostly in sprints but he sired the 2000 Remsen Stakes winner Windsor Castle who turned out to be a good middle-distance runner and winner of the 9-furlong William Donald Schaefer Handicap (G3) in addition to several graded stakes second and third-place finishes.

     A sharp bullet work out at Belmont on October 28 could have Vegas No Show primed to run a good race and I look for him to be competitive in the Remsen Stakes (G2).


***


     With three Thanksgiving celebrations this weekend, I’ll try to post about the $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G3) which is at Churchill Downs on Saturday. But I make no guarantees.

     I briefly looked at the entries and I thought that Java’s War and Uncaptured looked good but more analysis is needed.

     The Remsen Stakes and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes are qualifying races for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. The winner of each race will receive 10 points, second-place finisher will receive 4 points, third-place finisher gets 2 points and the fourth-place finisher gets 1 point.

The updated Kentucky Derby leaderboard will be posted sometime this weekend. 
     Good luck with your picks and have a happy and safe Thanksgiving everyone.


Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated November 25, 2012)

Individual Leaders, total points
Shanghai Bobby, 20
Goldencents, 14
Joha, 10
Overanalyze, 10
Power Broker, 10
River Seven, 10
Steeler, 10
Uncaptured, 10
Tesseron, 5
Artigiano, 4
Bern Identity, 4
Capo Bastone, 4
Dynamic Sky, 4
Frac Daddy, 4
He’s Had Enough, 4
Know More, 4
Normandy Invasion, 4
Fortify, 3
Al Waab, 2
Delhomme, 2
Dewey Square, 2
Indiano Jones, 2
Java’s War, 2
Mylute, 2
Archwarrior, 1
Carving, 1
Birdman, 1
Five Iron, 1
Hightail, 1
Pataky Kid, 1
Quinienne Monarque, 1

Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), Newmarket, September 29, 2012
1. Steeler,10
2. Artigiano,4
3. Al Waab,2
4. Birdman,1

Frontrunner Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, September 29, 2012
1. Power Broker, 10
2. Know More, 4
3. Capo Bastone, 2
4. Carving, 1

Foxwoods Champagne Stakes (G1), Belmont Park, October 6, 2012
1. Shanghai Bobby, 10
2. Goldencents, 4
3. Fortify, 2
4. Archwarrior, 1

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Keeneland, October 6, 2012
1. Joha, 10
2. Dynamic Sky, 4
3. Java’s War, 2
4. Pataky Kid, 1

Grey Stakes (G3), Woodbine, October 7, 2012
1. River Seven, 10
2. Tesseron, 4
3. Indiano Jones, 2
4. Five Iron, 1

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, November 3, 2012
1. Shanghai Bobby, 10
2. He’s Had Enough, 4
3. Capo Bastone, 2
4. Fortify, 1

Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), Delta Downs, November 17, 2012
1. Goldencents, 10
2. Bern Identity, 4
3. Mylute, 2,
4. Hightail, 1

Remsen Stakes (G2), Aqueduct, November 24, 2012
1. Overanalyze, 10
2. Normandy Invasion, 4
3. Delhomme, 2
4. Quinzieme Monarque, 1

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), Churchill Downs, November 24, 2012
1. Uncaptured, 10
2. Frac Daddy, 4
3. Dewey Square, 2
4. Tesseron, 1




Saturday, November 17, 2012

Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes Racing Roundup

   Trainer Doug O’Neill just might have a golden opportunity today to cash in on the $1 million purse of the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3) at Delta Downs racetrack and casino when he sends the 5-2 morning line favorite Goldencents and Know More, the 5-2 third-choice, to the starting gate in a field of nine 2-year-old thoroughbreds.
   Goldencents won his maiden debut with an impressive 7¼-length romp at Del Mar on September 2. He followed that performance with a respectable second-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1) to Shanghai Bobby who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and will most likely be selected as the champion 2-year-old.
   As a 2-year-old, Into Mischief, the sire of Goldencents, finished second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and won the 8½-furlong CashCall Futurity (G1) in a time of 1:40.82 – just a few ticks off of the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.    
   Banker’sGold, the sire of Goldencents’ dam Golden Works, was a pretty good sprinter that was able to carry his speed to victory in the 9-furlong Peter Pan Stakes (G2).
   If Goldencents repeats the form of his previous races, he should be competitive in the Jackpot.
   Know More comes into the race off of a disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Santa Anita Park where he finished 13th in a 14-horse field. Prior to that, Know More won his maiden debut in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and he finished second in both the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the Frontrunner Stakes (G1).
   Know More is a much better horse than his performance on the turf would suggest and I’m willing to overlook his last race. A return to his previous form will make him competitive. 
   Central Banker, a son of Speightstown, is an interesting long shot at 6-1 morning line odds. In four starts, Central Banker has never been out of the money and he comes into today’s race off of an impressive 5-length romp in a 6½-furlong race at Churchill Downs on October 28.
   Central Banker has never run in a route race but he shouldn’t have a problem stretching out to 8½-furlongs.
   Speightstown was a champion sprinter but his son Haynesfield was competitive at routes winning the 9-furlong Discovery Handicap (G3) and Empire Classic Handicap (twice). He also won the 9-furlong Suburban Handicap (G2) and 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1). 
   Go For Gin, the damsire of Central Banker, was a competitive route racer. As a 2-year-old, He won the one mile Chief’s Crown Stakes and the 9-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Go For Gin won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and finished second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
   I look for Central Banker to be competitive in the Jackpot. 
   Bern Identity (7-2) has never been out of the money in five starts. He comes into today’s race a 3-length victory in the one mile Jean Laffitte Stakes at Delta Downs and he’s been training good at the track with a bullet work out on November 10.
   Jockey Paco Lopez who guided Bern Identity to victory in the Jean Laffitte Stakes retains the mount for today’s race.
   The Jackpot is a qualifying race for the Kentucky Derby. The winner will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive four points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.
   After the race, I’ll post the updated list of Kentucky Derby qualifying leaders at the end of this blog.



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated November, 17, 2012)

Individual Leaders, total points
Shanghai Bobby, 20
Goldencents, 14
Joha, 10
Power Broker, 10
River Seven, 10
Steeler, 10
Artigiano, 4
Bern Identity, 4
Capo Bastone, 4
Dynamic Sky, 4
He’s Had Enough, 4
Know More, 4
Tesseron, 4
Fortify, 3
Al Waab, 2
Indiano Jones, 2
Java’s War, 2
Mylute, 2
Archwarrior, 1
Carving, 1
Birdman, 1
Five Iron, 1
Hightail, 1
Pataky Kid, 1

Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), Newmarket, September 29, 2012
1. Steeler,10
2. Artigiano,4
3. Al Waab,2
4. Birdman,1

Frontrunner Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, September 29, 2012
1. Power Broker, 10
2. Know More, 4
3. Capo Bastone, 2
4. Carving, 1

Foxwoods Champagne Stakes (G1), Belmont Park, October 6, 2012
1. Shanghai Bobby, 10
2. Goldencents, 4
3. Fortify, 2
4. Archwarrior, 1

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Keeneland, October 6, 2012
1. Joha, 10
2. Dynamic Sky, 4
3. Java’s War, 2
4. Pataky Kid, 1

Grey Stakes (G3), Woodbine, October 7, 2012
1. River Seven, 10
2. Tesseron, 4
3. Indiano Jones, 2
4. Five Iron, 1

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, November 3, 2012
1. Shanghai Bobby, 10
2. He’s Had Enough, 4
3. Capo Bastone, 2
4. Fortify, 1

Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), Delta Downs, November 17, 2012
1. Goldencents, 10
2. Bern Identity, 4
3. Mylute, 2,
4. Hightail, 1
 


Thursday, November 1, 2012

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes Racing Roundup


Undefeated in four starts, Shanghai Bobby will put his untarnished record on the line this Saturday when he goes to the starting gate as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the $2 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park.

Only nine juvenile colts will go to the post in the 29th running of the prestigious stakes race and, with a maximum of 14 possible entries, one has to wonder if the race did not fill because of the entry of Shanghai Bobby who’s been dominant in all four of his starts.

In April, Shanghai Bobby easily won his maiden debut by 4-lengths at Aqueduct racetrack. Since then, he’s won the Track Barron Stakes, Hopeful Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1) by 9¾-lengths combined. And he shouldn’t have a problem stretching out to the 8½-furlong distance of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).

The success of Shanghai Bobby is somewhat similar to that of his sire, Harlan’s Holiday, who was 4-2-0 in six starts as a two year old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes, Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.

As a 3-year-old, Harlan’s Holiday finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1). He followed up with a win in the Florida Derby (G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and went into the 2002 Kentucky Derby as the 6-1 favorite but finished seventh in a field of 18.

A win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile will make Shanghai Bobby the early favorite for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. However, the distaff pedigree of Shanghai Bobby is not as strong as I’d like to see in a potential Derby prospect.

Orientate, the damsire of Shanghai Bobby, was a champion sprinter that won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) as well as the graded stakes Forego Handicap (G1), the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G2) and the Aristides Handicap (G3). Orientate was also able to stretch out his speed to win the 8½-furlong Indiana Derby. Carson City, the sire of the second dam Steel Band, also adds speed influence to the distaff pedigree.

Jockey Rosie Napravnik has done a masterful job guiding Shanghai Bobby to victory in all four starts and I look for them to be competitive in the Juvenile. But their courage could be severely tested by Power Broker (5-2) who, in his last race, broke his maiden and was an impressive 6½-length winner of the Frontrunner Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park on September 29.

Power Broker has improved his performance in each of his previous four starts and if he continues to move forward, he’ll be tough to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).

Pulpit, the sire of Power Broker, did not race as a 2-year-old. But as a 3-year-old, he had an outstanding 4-1-0 record going into the 1997 Kentucky Derby with a win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and a second-place finish in the Florida Derby to Captain Bodgit.

As a sire, Pulpit has sired the multimillion dollar winners Pit Fighter (JPN), Essence of Dubai, Pyro, Rutherienne and Corinthian.

Wild Again, the damsire of Power Broker, is also the damsire of Pyro. So Power Broker is bred on the same successful Pulpit, Wild Again nick that produced one of Pulpit’s best runners - Pyro.

Wild Again was a very good middle-distance runner that won the 9-furlong Oaklawn Handicap (G2), the New Orleans Handicap (G2) and Meadowland Cup Handicap (G1). He also was able to stretch out to 10-furlongs and win the 1984 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

In some respects, this race is shaping up like the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) where Pyro finished second to the speedy, undefeated War Pass.

Time will tell if Power Broker, a close relative to Pyro, can turn the tables on the speedy, undefeated Shanghai Bobby.

A long shot I like in this race is He’s Had Enough (20-1). On paper, it looks like He’s Had Enough is going backwards instead of forward which is what one hopes a young 2-year-old Thorougbred to be doing at this time of year.

In all three of his previous starts, He’s Had Enough has shown a great deal of immaturity. However, his recent bullet work out has caught my attention. He’s never fired a bullet before and maybe he’s ready to get serious and run the best race of his career.

He’s Had Enough got off to a good start winning his maiden debut by a half-length but his immaturity showed in his run down the stretch.

His lack of focus and maturity showed in his second race, however, he managed to close from last to finish sixth only 2¼-lengths behind the victor Dry Summer. Just a few ticks off of the finish time of 1:35.16 for the mile, He’s Had Enough is right in the time zone that I like to see for young colts I think may have potential to be competitive.

In his third start, He’s Had Enough was hopelessly stuck behind a wall of horses going into the stretch of the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland but he still managed to finish only 4¾-lengths off of the victor Joha.

And with Tapit as his sire and Dixieland Band as the damsire, He’s Had Enough has the breeding to be competitive. Tapit sired Hansen, winner of the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Dixieland Band is the damsire of Street Sense – winner of the 2006 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).

I know it’s a stretch and a lot will depend on how well he looks in the paddock and post parade. If he looks good and you’re feeling lucky, he may be worthy of a wager.

In three starts, Fortify (9-2) has never been out of the money.

Fortify doesn’t seem to have the same speed or turn of foot as Power Broker and Shanghai Bobby who’s already beaten him twice. But his third-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1) wasn’t that bad and if Fortify can repeat that performance, then he should be competitive.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) is the only race on the Breeders’ Cup card that is a qualifying race for the Kentucky Derby. The winner will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive four points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.

After the race, I’ll post the updated list of Kentucky Derby qualifying leaders at the end of this blog.



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated November 3, 2012)

Individual Leaders, total points
Shanghai Bobby, 20
Joha, 10
Power Broker, 10
River Seven, 10
Steeler, 10
Artigiano, 4
Capo Bastone, 4
Dynamic Sky, 4
Goldencents, 4
He’s Had Enough, 4
Know More, 4
Tesseron, 4
Fortify, 3
Al Waab, 2
Indiano Jones, 2
Java’s War, 2
Archwarrior, 1
Carving, 1
Birdman, 1
Five Iron, 1
Pataky Kid, 1

Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), Newmarket, September 29, 2012
1. Steeler,10
2. Artigiano,4
3. Al Waab,2
4. Birdman,1

Frontrunner Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, September 29, 2012
1. Power Broker, 10
2. Know More, 4
3. Capo Bastone, 2
4. Carving, 1

Foxwoods Champagne Stakes (G1), Belmont Park, October 6, 2012
1. Shanghai Bobby, 10
2. Goldencents, 4
3. Fortify, 2
4. Archwarrior, 1

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Keeneland, October 6, 2012
1. Joha, 10
2. Dynamic Sky, 4
3. Java’s War, 2
4. Pataky Kid, 1

Grey Stakes (G3), Woodbine, October 7, 2012
1. River Seven, 10
2. Tesseron, 4
3. Indiano Jones, 2
4. Five Iron, 1

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, November 3, 2012
1. Shanghai Bobby, 10
2. He’s Had Enough, 4
3. Capo Bastone, 2
4. Fortify, 1