Friday, February 20, 2015

Rescheduled: Southwest Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
The $300,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park was originally slated to be run on President’s Day, February 16, but because of bad weather it has been rescheduled to be run this Sunday with a post time of 5:42 p.m., ET.
Far Right, winner of the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes last month, will go to the starting gate as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in what appears to be a wide-open 50th running of the Southwest Stakes (G3). He comes into this race with a 2-2-2 record in seven starts for trainer Ron Moquett. And, in stakes competition he’s compiled a 1-0-2 record in four starts.
In the Smarty Jones, it looked like Far Right would have to settle for runner up honors to Mr. Z, who is also entered in this race as the morning-line 3-1 second choice. However, for some reason Mr. Z, who was on the lead in the stretch, veered to the right and that loss of ground enabled Far Right to come up the inside along the rail and win by a 1¾-length margin.
Last November, those two faced off in the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3) where Mr. Z finished second, losing by a narrow nose to the very nice colt, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Far Right finished another four lengths back in third.
The Delta Downs Jackpot is 8½ furlongs which is the same distance as the Southwest and that could be a key factor in this race. Mr. Z is a proven competitor at this distance with a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) and he finished third by a neck to the highly-regarded Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes (G1).
I look for both horses to be competitive but Mr. Z could have an edge over Far Right going the further distance.
A couple of long shots I like are Bold Conquest (10-1) and Phenomenal Phoenix (30-1). They both have yet to prove themselves on the Derby Trail but they have the breeding to be a factor.
The Southwest will be the first start for Bold Conquest as a three year old and he comes into this race for trainer Steve Asmussen with a 1-2-1 record in four starts, including a second-place finish in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) and a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1).
Whether Bold Conquest can step up off of a four month layoff to win his first stakes race remains to be seen. However, he’s been training well at the Fair Grounds and two recent back-to-back bullet works could have him ready to run a good race.
Phenomenal Phoenix comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in four starts for trainer Donnie Von Hemel. He’ll need to improve his game in order to secure the win, but his performance last out showed promise and the addition of blinkers could help Phenomenal Phoenix be a factor in the Southwest Stakes (G3).
Honorable mention goes to Bold Animaux (30-1) who comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in five starts race including a four-length victory, last out, in a claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs. I couldn’t find any video of that race, but here’s the chart call:

 BOLD ANIMAUX stalked the leaders, bid between rivals on the turn and drew clear under urging.

I have no idea of what he looks like or how he runs and it remains to be seen if he can step up to be competitive in stakes-race company. But the time of 1:35.69 is in the time zone of what I like to see in a young colt. If he looks good in the post parade and you think he might be able to carry his speed to 8½ furlongs, he may be worth a small wager.


*****
The Southwest Stakes (G3) is the last race in Kentucky Derby Prep Season consisting of 20 races worth 10 points each to the winner. The second-place finisher received 4 points, the third-place finisher received 2 points and the fourth-place finisher received one point.
The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) on February 21 will start the Kentucky Derby Championship Series consisting of 16 races and the winner of those races will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 28, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.
Calculator, ranked 5th in the January 24 Kentucky Derby point standings, is sidelined with an injury for six months and he’s off the Derby trail. Leave the Light On, ranked 13th, is also off the trail.
Texas Red is sidelined with a foot abscess but could, perhaps, return to racing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1).
Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:


2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 25, John Terranova II, $380,792
2. International Star, 21, Mike Maker, $250,979
3. Dortmund, 20, Bob Baffert, $390,000
4. Upstart, 16, Rick Violette Jr., $538,080
5. Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
6. Texas Red, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $1,176,000
7. Mr. Z, 12, D. Wayne Lukas, $488,326
8. Far Right, 12, Ron Moquett, $205,906
9. Ocho Ocho Ocho, 10, Jim Cassidy, $660,000
10. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
11. Daredevil, 10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
12. Far From Over, 10, Todd Pletcher, $150,000
13. Metaboss, 10, Jeff Bonde, $126,000
14. Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen, $97,231
15. Frosted, 8, Kiaran McLaughlin, $156,800
16. Firing Line, 8, Simon Callaghan, $130,000
17. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $335,827
18. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
19. Rock Shandy, 6, Peter Miller, $56,000
20. Bayerd, 4, Steve Asmussen, $245,000

Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
After the 73rd running of The Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park this Saturday, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” will take us to Louisiana, the Pelican State, where Imperia will go to the starting gate as the lukewarm 7-2 morning-line favorite in what appears to be a wide open 43rd running of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time is 6:24 PM ET.
The Risen Star will be the first start as a three year old for Imperia and he comes into this race off of a second-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last November at Churchill Downs. Overall, Imperia has compiled a 1-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and, in stakes competition, he’s 1-1-0 in three starts.
Whether Imperia can secure the win off of a two and one half month layoff remains to be seen. But, with veteran jockey Mike Smith in the irons, I look for the pair to be competitive.
One horse I like for a potential upset is J S Bach who, along with War Story and Tiznow R J has been tagged as the 5-1 morning-line third choice. He’s a lightly-raced colt who comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in two starts and he’s yet to race in stakes competition.
However, last month in his debut as a three year old, J S Bach looked good breaking his maiden by an impressive 8½ lengths at Gulfstream Park. That distance of that race is the same as the Risen Star and the final time of 1:44.61 makes him competitive with this group.
This race will be J S Bach’s second start as a three year old and he has room to improve off of his last start. In addition, the pedigree of J S Bach indicates that if he lives up to his breeding he should be competitive.
A long shot I like is Bluff (12-1) who comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in three starts for trainer Larry Jones. He appears to be an improving son of Tapit and he recently broke his maiden by 5¾ lengths on January 22 at the Fair Grounds. Here’s the chart call and video of that race:

BLUFF saved ground on the first turn, was rated while well placed, chased three wide early on the far turn, made a bid passing the three-eighths pole, dropped to the two path near the five-sixteenths then moved clear, came under a right-handed whip in upper stretch, drew off under the whip until inside the furlong marker then was eased up significantly in the final sixteenth while much the best.
                                                                         
This performance was much improved over his previous off-the-board efforts and if Bluff returns to the form of his last start he could be competitive.
International Star (9-2), Tiznow R J and War Story could be there in the mix, too. They were the first three finishers in the Lecomte last month and only 2½ lengths separated the lot. However, if International Star runs a repeat performance of the Lecomte, he should have the edge on those two as he made a nice move in the final strides to get up for the win.


*****
The Kentucky Derby Championship Series consisting of 16 races begins this weekend with the running of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Risen Star Stakes (G2). The winner of those races will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 28, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.
Calculator, ranked 5th in the January 24 Kentucky Derby point standings, is sidelined with an injury for six months and he’s off the Derby trail. Leave the Light On, ranked 13th, is also off the trail.
Texas Red is sidelined with a foot abscess but could, perhaps, return to racing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1).
Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:


2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 25, John Terranova II, $380,792
2. International Star, 21, Mike Maker, $250,979
3. Dortmund, 20, Bob Baffert, $390,000
4. Upstart, 16, Rick Violette Jr., $538,080
5. Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
6. Texas Red, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $1,176,000
7. Mr. Z, 12, D. Wayne Lukas, $488,326
8. Far Right, 12, Ron Moquett, $205,906
9. Ocho Ocho Ocho, 10, Jim Cassidy, $660,000
10. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
11. Daredevil, 10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
12. Far From Over, 10, Todd Pletcher, $150,000
13. Metaboss, 10, Jeff Bonde, $126,000
14. Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen, $97,231
15. Frosted, 8, Kiaran McLaughlin, $156,800
16. Firing Line, 8, Simon Callaghan, $130,000
17. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $335,827
18. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
19. Rock Shandy, 6, Peter Miller, $56,000
20. Bayerd, 4, Steve Asmussen, $245,000

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Fountain Of Youth Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Florida this Saturday where Upstart, winner of the Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2), will go the starting gate as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 73rd running of The Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2, $400,000) at Gulfstream Park.
In five starts the New-York bred son of Flatter has compiled a 3-1-1 record for trainer Richard Violette, including a win as a two year old in the Funny Cide Stakes, and he finished second in the Champaign Stakes (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). In the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) Upstart looked impressive winning his debut as a three year old by 5½ lengths.
In stakes competition, Upstart has been running against the likes of Texas Red, Carpe Diem and Daredevil, and Frosted who is also entered in this race as the 5-2 morning line second choice. He’s a proven competitor who’s never finished worse than third in five starts and regular rider Jose Ortiz, who’s ridden Upstart in all his races, retains the mount.
Indeed, Upstart is a nice horse and I like him in this race. But, Gorgeous Bird (6-1) and Itsaknockout (4-1) are two young colts that could, perhaps, pull off the upset.
Since finishing off the board in his maiden debut last August, Gorgeous Bird has been perfect in his last two races, compiling a 2-0-0 record in three starts for trainer Ian Wilkes.
Last November, Gorgeous Bird flashed good speed in a seven furlong sprint at Churchill Downs to break his maiden by a 1¾-length margin. Here’s the chart call and video of that race:

GORGEOUS BIRD settled in hand, advanced between rivals through the turn, was pocketed to the three-sixteenths pole, split horses and edged away once clear.

The fractional splits were fast in that race and Gorgeous Bird stalked the leaders, just three lengths off the pace. In the stretch, it looked like Gorgeous Bird, who was stuck behind a group of four horses, would finish off the board. But, he made a nice move by swinging wide and splitting horses to find running room and get up for the win.
In his debut as a three year old last month, Gorgeous Bird looked good winning by an impressive seven lengths in a one mile optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. Here’s the chart call and video of that race:

GORGEOUS BIRD settled off the leaders early, moved outside though the turn, reached the fore into the lane and drew off as a handy winner.

Gorgeous Bird was off slower in this race but he made up ground to win by an easy seven lengths. He has room to improve in his second start as a three year old and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to run a good race.
Itsaknockout is also a lightly-raced colt and he comes into this race with a 2-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. Last December he broke his maiden running seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park in the time of 1:24.96. Here’s the chart call and video of his maiden win:

ITSAKNOCKOUT kept along in range three wide, carried out four wide in the turn, dueled with THE SON WIND, took the lead and held on by a nose over late surging rival.

Itsaknockout showed good speed in that race and a month later, making his debut as a three year, he again flashed speed in winning a one mile optional claiming race at Gulfstream by an impressive 5¼ lengths. Here’s the chart call and video of that race:

ITSAKNOCKOUT settled just off the leaders from the outside, moved up to take command nearing the three-sixteenths pole and drew off as a handy winner.

Itsaknockout easily won that race and another move forward off of his first start as a three year old will make him competitive.
Frosted (5-2) is always competitive on race day but he still has yet to win his first stakes race. He comes into this race with a 1-4-0 record in five starts for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
He’s been training well at the Palm Meadows Training Center and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to run another good race.


*****
The Kentucky Derby Championship Series consisting of 16 races begins this weekend with the running of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Risen Star Stakes (G2). The winner of those races will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 28, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.
Calculator, ranked 5th in the January 24 Kentucky Derby point standings, is sidelined with an injury for six months and he’s off the Derby trail. Leave the Light On, ranked 13th, is also off the trail.
Texas Red is sidelined with a foot abscess but could, perhaps, return to racing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1).
Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:


2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 25, John Terranova II, $380,792
2. International Star, 21, Mike Maker, $250,979
3. Dortmund, 20, Bob Baffert, $390,000
4. Upstart, 16, Rick Violette Jr., $538,080
5. Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
6. Texas Red, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $1,176,000
7. Mr. Z, 12, D. Wayne Lukas, $488,326
8. Far Right, 12, Ron Moquett, $205,906
9. Ocho Ocho Ocho, 10, Jim Cassidy, $660,000
10. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
11. Daredevil, 10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
12. Far From Over, 10, Todd Pletcher, $150,000
13. Metaboss, 10, Jeff Bonde, $126,000
14. Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen, $97,231
15. Frosted, 8, Kiaran McLaughlin, $156,800
16. Firing Line, 8, Simon Callaghan, $130,000
17. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $335,827
18. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
19. Rock Shandy, 6, Peter Miller, $56,000
20. Bayerd, 4, Steve Asmussen, $245,000