Saturday, March 30, 2013

Louisiana Derby Stakes Racing Roundup



The mad scramble for Derby points continues today as the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” travels to bayou country where trainer Todd Pletcher will send Revolutionary, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and Palace Malice (5-1) to the starting gate in the 100th running of the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds racetrack.

I like both colts in this race. But, of the two, I’m especially interested to see how well Revolutionary runs. I profiled him in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook as a colt to watch on the Derby trail, and so far, he’s met my expectations.

Revolutionary comes into today’s race with a 2-1-2 record in five starts including a narrow win in the Withers Stakes (G3) last month at Aqueduct. Stuck in traffic in the stretch, it looked like Revolutionary would get shut out of the money. But, he found a hole and split horses in the final strides to get up for the win by a neck.

Any improvement off of his Withers Stakes win should make Revolutionary competitive, and he has the breeding to perform well in today’s race.

Revolutionary is a descendant of the Cherokee Run sire line and in my July 3 blog of 2009 I noted the importance of keeping track of colts from that line when they stretch out to route racing.

Over the years, the Cherokee Run sire line has produced a lot of good middle- distance runners such as War Pass, the sire of Revolutionary. Other good runners from that line include: Yonaguska, Kafwain, Sir Cherokee, During, Chelokee, Zanjero, Recapturetheglory, Musket Man and The Pamplemousse.

In addition, the distaff pedigree of Revolutionary is very strong and the tail-female line is reinforced with the stallions A.P. Indy, Hoist The Flag, Herbager and Court Martial.

The tail-female line descends from the outstanding foundation mare La Troienne (Family 1-x) and that line has produced eight Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: Super Saver (2010), Smarty Jones (2004), Go For Gin (1994), Sea Hero (1993), Prairie Bayou (1993), Easy Goer (1989), Personality (1970) and Bimelech (1940). 

It remains to be seen if Revolutionary has any classic potential. However, I’m looking for him to run a good race today.

This is the time of year when 3-year-old colts can make big improvements in a short period of time and Palace Malice looks like he could be ready to make a big step forward.

After a four-month layoff, Palace Malice returned to racing in January, finishing second in a 7-furlong sprint in the slop at Gulfstream Park. Pletcher wheeled him back a month later where he finished third in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), one-half length shy of victory.

Palace Malice and the winner, Ive Struck a Nerve, were the only two in that four-horse blanket finish that rallied from off the pace, and that race was a good conditioning for a young colt that has room to improve in his third start off of the layoff.

Palace Malice, with a 1-2-1 record in four starts, has been close to victory in all of his previous starts. But he appears to be behind the form of his sire, Curlin, who was undefeated in three starts, including a win in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2), en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Curlin went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) by a head and he lost the Belmont Stakes (G1) by a head. He won numerous Eclipse awards, compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts and earned over $10.5 million dollars.

Palace Malice’s grandsire, Smart Strike, has proven to be an outstanding sire of champions and classic champions. He sired the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Curlin and Lookin at Lucky and he’s the damsire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

In addition, Smart Strike is the sire of numerous Canadian Sovereign Award winners: Soaring Free, Portcullis, Added Edge, Eye of the Sphynx, Gold Strike; and Smart Strike is the sire of the American Eclipse Award winner English Channel.

Royal Anthem, the damsire of Palace Malice, was an outstanding turf horse who did his best racing at 10-furlongs and further winning the Fairway Stakes, King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) and Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) in England as well as the Canadian International Stakes (G1), then, Palace Malice should run better as the races get longer.

Another move forward will make Palace Malice competitive in today’s race.

Two long shots I like in this race are Departing (8-1) and Sunbean (12-1) who will go to the starting gate for trainer Al Stall.

Departing is undefeated in three starts including a win in the Texas Heritage Stakes on March 2 and another move forward will make him competitive. Sunbean comes into today’s race with a 3-1-0 record in four starts and he especially looked good winning his last race, the Gentilly Stakes, by an impressive 4¾-lengths.



*****



The winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) will receive 100 points while second-place will yield 40 points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:





Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated March 29, 2013)



Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1 = Will Take Charge, 60, D. Wayne Lukas, $512,971

2 = Vyjack, 50, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000

3 = Govenor Charlie, 50, Bob Baffert, $400,000

4 = Black Onyx, 50, Kelly Breen, $317,130

5 = Orb, 50, Shug McGaughey III, $240,000

6 = Verrazano, 50, Todd Pletcher, $210,000

7 = Hear The Ghost, 50, Jerry Hollendorfer, $195,400

8 = Oxbow, 36, D. Wayne Lukas, $316,000

9 = Uncaptured, 30, Mark Casse, $394,674

10 = Flashback, 30, Bob Baffert, $180,000

11 = Goldencents, 29, Doug O’Neill, $758,000

12 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000

13 = Java’s War, 22, Ken McPeek, $201,772

14 = Den’s Legacy, 20, Bob Baffert, $325,000

15 = Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500

16 = West Hills Giant, 20, John Terranova II, $89,000

17 = Code West, 20, Bob Baffert, $80,000

18 = Dynamic Sky, 13, Mark Casse, $289,168

19 = Speak Logistics, 11, Eddie Pleasa, Jr., $52,500

20 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600

Friday, March 29, 2013

Florida Derby Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” enters the stretch drive this weekend with the Florida Derby (G1), Louisiana Derby (G1) and the UAE Derby (G1) kicking off phase three of the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility to enter the Kentucky Derby (G1) starting gate. The winner of those races will receive 100 points each and for many colts on the Derby trail, it’s “do or die” time.
Let’s take a look at the Florida Derby (G1).
Trainer Eddie Plesa’s 3-year-old colt, Itsmyluckyday, heads a field of 10 horses as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the 64th running of the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
Itsmyluckyday has been training well and I look for him to run a good race. In January, he was my pick in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) to upset the Eclipse Champion 2-year-old, Shanghai Bobby, who’s also entered in the Florida Derby (G1) as the 5-2 morning-line second choice.
As a 3-year-old, Itsmyluckyday is undefeated in two starts with victories in the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull Stakes (G3). His form is similar to that of his sire, Lawyer Ron, who was a tough competitor as a 3-year-old, and undefeated in four starts, on the 2006 Derby trail with victories in the Risen Star Stakes, Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a 12th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Plesa has high hopes for Itsmyluckyday to earn enough points to get into the Derby starting gate. Another move forward off of his previous form will make him tough to beat in the Florida Derby (G1).
One colt that, perhaps, could severely test the courage of Itsmyluckyday is Pick of the Litter, a mild 6-1 long shot who is trained by Dale Romans. Pick of the Litter did not race as a 2-year-old and he is not nominated for the Kentucky Derby.
In his debut as a 3-year-old, Pick of the Litter finished ninth in a one-mile turf race at Gulfstream Park on February 2. He came back 25 days later at Gulfstream and easily broke his maiden by 7½-lengths in 9-furlong race that was taken off the turf.
The fractional splits were pretty good for Pick of the Litter, who stalked the pace. The final time of 1:49.35 and the 95 Brisnet Speed Figure he earned for that performance makes him a contender.
Since that race, Pick of the Litter has fired two bullets in workouts and another move forward will make him competitive in the Florida Derby.
Orb (3-1), a young Malibu Moon colt trained by Shug McGaughey, comes into the Florida Derby with a 3-0-1 record in starts including a half-length victory over a very game Violence in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes (G2).
Last August, Orb finished third in his maiden debut as a 2-year-old. He struggled in his next two starts, finishing off the board. Finally, on his fourth start last November, Orb broke his maiden, winning a one mile race at Aqueduct. As a 3-year-old, Orb is undefeated in two starts and he appears to be getting good at the right time of year.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Orb, only made two career starts. But with A.P. Indy has his grandsire and Unbridled has his damsire, Orb should not have a problem stretching out to 9-furlongs
Since the Fountain Of Youth Stakes (G2), Orb has been working good and another move forward will make him competitive in the Florida Derby (G1).
A long shot I like in this race is Indy’s Illusion (20-1) who finished fifth in the 9-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) last November. The top three finishers in that race – Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion and Delhomme – all finished out of the money in their debut as 3-year-olds.
Despite those poor performances, Indy’s Illusion managed to finish third in his 3-year-old debut, racing 9-furlongs Gulfstream Park. And earlier this month at the same race track, Indy’s Illusion finished second in another 9-furlong race. The finish times for both of those races was slow but Indy’s Illusion is steadily improving and another move forward would make him competitive in the Florida Derby.
Shanghai Bobby is a very talented colt. However, I’ve always had concerns about how far he wanted to run, and his narrow victory over He’s Had Enough in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and his loss to Itmyluckyday in the Holy Bull Stakes confirmed those suspicions.  
If Shanghai Bobby improves in his second start as a 3-year-old, he should be competitive. But I don’t like him for the win and would use him in the bottom of the exotics.

*****

The winner of the Florida Derby (G1) will receive 100 points while second-place will yield 40 points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:


Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated March 29, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Will Take Charge, 60, D. Wayne Lukas, $512,971
2 = Vyjack, 50, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000
3 = Govenor Charlie, 50, Bob Baffert, $400,000
4 = Black Onyx, 50, Kelly Breen, $317,130
5 = Orb, 50, Shug McGaughey III, $240,000
6 = Verrazano, 50, Todd Pletcher, $210,000
7 = Hear The Ghost, 50, Jerry Hollendorfer, $195,400
8 = Oxbow, 36, D. Wayne Lukas, $316,000
9 = Uncaptured, 30, Mark Casse, $394,674
10 = Flashback, 30, Bob Baffert, $180,000
11 = Goldencents, 29, Doug O’Neill, $758,000
12 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
13 = Java’s War, 22, Ken McPeek, $201,772
14 = Den’s Legacy, 20, Bob Baffert, $325,000
15 = Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500
16 = West Hills Giant, 20, John Terranova II, $89,000
17 = Code West, 20, Bob Baffert, $80,000
18 = Dynamic Sky, 13, Mark Casse, $289,168
19 = Speak Logistics, 11, Eddie Pleasa, Jr., $52,500
20 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600

Monday, March 25, 2013

Govenor Charlie Has All The Goods



An interesting traveler on the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” was discovered yesterday in New Mexico when post-time favorite Govenor Charlie set a new track record and easily won the 11th running of the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park by a widening 5-lengths.

The win came as no surprise as I found him to be the most intriguing of nine horses that had been entered in the Derby. Here’s a look at my pre-race blog post about Govenor Charlie:

Of the two Baffert horses, Govenor Charlie is the most intriguing. He didn’t race as a 2-year-old, and with two career starts, he comes into today’s race off a maiden win last month at Santa Anita Park. Govenor Charlie showed good speed in that race and the time of 1:36.28 is what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail.
It remains to be seen how far Govenor Charlie can carry his speed. However, his breeding indicates that he should be able to stretch out to 9-furlongs.
His sire, Midnight Lute, was an Eclipse champion male sprinter and two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). However, his grandsire, Real Quiet, won the 1998 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and lost by a nose to Victory Gallop in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
The dam of Govenor Charlie, Silverbulletway, was unraced. But his second dam, Silverbulletday, was an outstanding champion racehorse who compiled a 15-3-1 record in 23 starts with career earnings over $3 million.
Silverbulletday was competitive in sprints and route races and her most notable wins were in 9-furlong races such as the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2), Gazelle Handicap (G2), Davona Dale Stakes (G2), and the 10-furlong Alabama Stakes (G1).

At this point on the Derby trail, I won’t declare Govenor Charlie the winner of the Kentucky Derby until I see the other 9-furlong preps. But, Govenor Charlie has all the goods to be a superfecta horse:

1. He’s a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line which, since 1990, has produced 11 Kentucky Derby winners: I’ll Have Another (2012), Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Real Quiet (1998), Grindstone (1996), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (1990). Most importantly, he’s a descendant of the Fappiano branch and that line produced four of those 11 Derby winners: Mine That Bird, Real Quiet, Grindstone and Unbridled.

2. He’s bred on the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer nick which, since 1990, has been the most successful nick in the American classic races with 12 winners and three of those were Kentucky Derby winners:

Drosselmeyer – 2010 Belmont
Sire line – Distorted Humor/Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Golden Ballet/Moscow Ballet/Nijinsky/Northern Dancer

Lookin at Lucky – 2010 Preakness
Sire Line – Smart Strike/Mr. Prospector
Damsire Line – Private Feeling/Belong To Me/Danzig/Northern Dancer

Summer Bird – 2009 Belmont
Sire line – Birdstone/Grindstone/Unbridled/Fappiano/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Hong Kong Squall/Summer Squall/Storm Bird/Northern Dancer

Curlin – 2007 Preakness
Sire line – Smart Strike/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Sherrifs Deputy/Deputy Minister/Vice Regent/Northern Dancer

Street Sense – 2007 Kentucky Derby
Sire line – Street Cry/Machiavellian/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Bedazzle/Dixieland Band/Northern Dancer

Jazil – 2006 Belmont
Sire line – Seeking The Gold/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Better Than Honour/Deputy Minister/Vice Regent/Northern Dancer

Birdstone – 2004 Belmont
Sire Line – Grindstone/Unbridled/Fappiano/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Dear Birdie/Storm Bird/Northern Dancer

Empire Maker – 2003 Belmont
Sire line – Unbridled/Fappiano/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Toussard/El Gran Senor/Northern Dancer

Fusaichi Pegasus – 2000 Kentucky Derby
Sire line – Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Angel Fever/Danzig/Northern Dancer

Victory Gallop – 1998 Belmont
Sire line – Cryptoclearance/Fappiano/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Victorious Lil/Vice Regent/Northern Dancer

Thunder Gulch – 1995 Kentucky Derby & Belmont
Sire line – Gulch/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Line of Thunder/Storm Bird/Northern Dancer

Hansel – 1991 Preakness & Belmont
Sire line – Woodman/Mr. Prospector
Damsire line – Count On Bonnie/Dancing Count/Northern Dancer

3. His tail-female line traces back to the dam, Etoile Filante, and that is the same family that produced Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone, Preakness Stakes winner High Quest and Belmont Stakes winners Pass Catcher and Arts and Letters. He’s a tail-female line descendant of Mustard (Family 1-c), and since 1980, family number one has dominated the Kentucky Derby producing 10 classic winners: Animal Kingdom (1-h), Super Saver (1-x), Smarty Jones (1-x), Grindstone (1-c), Go For Gin (1-x), Sea Hero (1-x), Unbridled (1-r), Spend A Buck (1-s), Swale (1-n) and Genuine Risk (1-n).

4. He ran a mile in 1:34.96 and 9-furlongs in racehorse time of 1:47.54 and still had strong energy at the finish – outstanding!

5. He has close breeding to the ancestral herd.

6. He has the will to win.

7. Govenor Charlie is trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert who also trained his sire Midnight Lute and his grandsire Real Quiet. Baffert has an intimate knowledge of colts from the Mr. Prospector sire line. He trained five Classic Champion Thoroughbreds and four of them are sire-line descendants of Mr. Prospector – Real Quiet, Point Given, War Emblem and Lookin At Lucky. Bodemeister, second-place finishers in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, is also a sire-line descendant Mr. Prospector and he’s bred on the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer nick.

Govenor Charlie is lightly-raced with only three career starts. I’d like to see him run in the Arkansas Derby to give him a little more foundation going into the Kentucky Derby.

It remains to be seen if Govenor Charlie has any classic potential. But, from this corner, it looks like he has all the goods.