Friday, January 26, 2018

Good Magic Chosen As 2017 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

My brother, Dallas, and I are excited that Good Magic was chosen as the 2017 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Good Magic was on our list of promising yearlings (Hip 845) at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale: http://bit.ly/2cS8Mwu.
From foal to finish line™ the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need for breeding, purchasing at auction and racing equine champions: http://bit.ly/2E99liF.
Here’s the video of Good Magic in the auction ring:




In 2016, Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC, a unique innovative bloodstock consulting firm, profiled 101 yearlings at the Keeneland September Sale and four horses from our sales list are currently ranked on the 2018 Kentucky Derby LeaderboardGood Magic (Hip 845), Solomini (Hip 662), Free Drop Billy (Hip 104) and Hollywood Star (Hip 395).
Good Magic was one of my top picks at the sale.
In addition, there are several horses from our 2016 sales list, including Grey Stakes (G3) winner Archaggelos (Hip 2138), that could make an impact as a three-year-old on the 2018 Derby trail.
The ability to know the potential of a horse before he goes to the breeding shed, sales ring or race track is of utmost importance.
Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC – a new vision, standard of excellence for an old industry – is an innovative bloodstock consulting firm and leader in cutting-edge software analysis of Thoroughbred breeding, sales and race potential. The empirical data gathered by the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software easily shows which horses have the potential to be quality stakes winners like the yearlings we profiled at the 2016 Keeneland September Sale.
The 2018 sales are just around the corner. For a free initial consultation, please contact us at our website or at our toll-free number: (844) 346-2223.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Smarty Jones Stakes Racing Roundup

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Monday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas where MOURINHO will go to the starting gate as the 3-2 morning-line favorite in the 11th running of the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes. Post time is 5:42 p.m. ET.
Mourinho comes into this race for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert with a 1-2-0 record in three starts including second-place finishes in the Speakeasy Stakes and Bob Hope Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of the Bob Hope:

MOURINHO saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch to loom a threat behind the winner in upper stretch, could not catch that one but was clearly second best.

Mourinho showed his talent chasing a fast Greyvitos to finish a respectable second and best the rest of the field by 7¾ lengths.
Super Saver, the sire of Mourinho, was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred and my pick to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby.
As a two year old, Super Saver was 2-1-0 in four starts and finished his racing season with a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) making him, along with Street Sense and Nyquist, among a select group of two year olds to win a major end-of-year prep race that went on to victory in the Derby.
As a three-year-old, Super Saver compiled a 1-1-1 record in six starts with a third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and a gutsy second-place finish to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in route to victory in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Mourinho has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and, despite his profile grade, he’s one of the best-bred colts in this race. I look for him to run good.
COMBATANT (2-1) comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in three starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a second-place finish in the Springboard Mile. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

COMBATANT was settled on the inside on the run down the backstretch, rallied three wide on the far turn, was gaining ground and finishing well in the end.

Like Mourinho, Combatant showed good ability in the Springboard Mile chasing Greyvitos to finish a respectable second and best the rest of the field by 5¼ lengths.
Scat Daddy, the sire of Combatant, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
In his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9 furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish in the Derby.
His best runners on the Derby Trail include Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El Kabeir, Frac Daddy, Azar and Dice Flavor who was my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real Derby (G3).
Combatant also has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to run a good race.
NAVISTAR (5-2) comes into this race off a maiden win in his second start for trainer Todd Pletcher. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

NAVISTAR bumped with HE TAKES CHARGE at the start, then was bumped by ALPHA TO OMEGA at the seven-eighths pole while forwardly placed, reached a short lead between rival in the two-path around the turn, edged away into the lane, then responded gamely to remain clear late.

Despite a troubled trip, Navistar looked good breaking his maiden to win by 1½ lengths.
Union Rags, the sire of Navistar, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1), compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with $1,798,800 in earnings.
As a two-year-old, he won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and Champagne (G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) stakes.
At the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.
Navistar also has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to run a good race.
Honorable mention goes to Bode’s Maker who is the best-bred colt in this herd with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. However, he’s yet to fully live up to his breeding.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. Firenze Fire, 20, Jason Servis, $517,500
3. McKinzie, 20, Bob Baffert, $240,000
4. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
5. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
6. Instilled Regard, 14, Jerry Hollendorfer, $180,000
7. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
8. +Free Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
9. Greyvitos, 10, Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
10. Catholic Boy, 10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
11. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
12.  Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
13. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $109,913
14. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $88,500
15. Combatant, 4, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
16. Principe Guilherme, 4, Steve Asmussen, $40,000
17. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
18. Seven Trumpets, 4, Dale Romans, $30,000
19. All Out Blitz, 4, Simon Callahan, $20,000
20. Snapper Sinclair, 2, Steve Asmussen, $221,810
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2. Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro (JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

Friday, January 12, 2018

Jerome Stakes Racing Roundup

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to the Empire State Saturday where FIRENZE FIRE will go the starting gate as the 3-5 morning-line favorite in the 148th running of the $150,000 Jerome Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time for the race will be 3:50 p.m. ET.
Firenze Fire comes into this race for trainer Jason Servis with a 3-0-0 record in five starts including a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of the Juvenile:

FIRENZE FIRE settled off of the inside, entered the stretch four wide but lacked a response when called upon.

Firenze Fire is a talented colt with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G3) (video) and Champagne Stakes (G1) (video). However, with an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, our analysis of the Juvenile ranked him 10th and he finished seventh.
Poseidon’s Warrior, the sire of Firenze Fire, was a fast, competitive racehorse and graded stakes winner that raced to the age of four compiling a 7-2-4 record in 21 starts with $701,147 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Poseidon’s Warrior was 2-1-1 in five starts with a win in the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity, a second-place finish in the Grey Planet Stakes and a third-place finish in the First State Dash Stakes.
As a three-year-old, He was 4-1-1 in nine starts with wins in the East Hanover Stakes, New Castle Stakes and the Le Bagoter Stakes. He finished second in the Gallant Bob Stakes and third in the Valley Forge Stakes.
In seven starts as a four-year-old, Poseidon’s Warrior was 1-0-2 with a win in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) and third-place finishes in the Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (G1) and the Fabulous Strike Handicap.
Like most of the horses in the Jerome, Firenze Fire has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive in this herd. I like the cut back in distance to a mile and if he repeats the form of his win in the Champagne, he’ll be tough to beat.
A long shot I like is OLD TIME REVIVAL (10-1) who comes into this race with a 1-0-1 record in three starts with a maiden win last out for trainer Kenneth Decker. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

OLD TIME REVIVAL bobbled at the break, was under a firm hold attending the pace three to four wide outside the leader, moved clear nearing the quarter pole, kicked away after being let out in upper stretch, was kept alert with one crack of the right stick leaving the eighth pole and continued eagerly under steady hand pressure to the wire.

Old Time Revival looked good breaking his maiden on his third start to win by 4¾ lengths. With a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he’s the best-bred colt in this herd.
Brethren, the sire of Old Time Revival, is half-brother to Super Saver and a graded stakes winner that raced to the age of five compiling a 5-2-1 record in 18 starts with $386,465 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, he was undefeated in two starts. At the age of three, Brethren won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) en route to an eleventh-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
As a four-year-old, Brethren was 1-2-0 in six starts with second place finishes in the Delta Mile Stakes and Tenacious Handicap. As a five-year-old, he was unplaced in five starts.
Old Time Revival appears to be an improving colt and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to take another big step forward.
SEVEN TRUMPETS (3-1) comes into this race for trainer Dale Romans with a 2-0-0 record in three starts including a half-length win in his last race. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SEVEN TRUMPETS attended the pace along the inside, shifted out and moved up to engage NUCLEAR OPTION entering the stretch, forged command with a furlong to run and held BATTLE STATION at bay.

Since his off-the-board finish in his debut, Seven Trumpets looked good putting together to back-to-victories to finish the racing season.
Morning Line, the sire of Seven Trumpets, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-4-2 record in 15 starts with $1,251,300 in career earnings.
Morning Line was unplaced in his only start as a two-year-old. At the age of three he was 3-3-0 in six starts with a win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
In his debut as a four-year-old, Morning Line finished third in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3). He went on to compile a 1-1-1 record in five starts with wins in the Carter Handicap (G1) and a second-place finish in the Donn Handicap (G1).
With two starts as a five-year-old, Morning Line was 1-0-0 with a win in the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (G2).
In his only start at the age of six, Morning Line finished third in the Triple Bend Handicap (G1).
Seven Trumpets is stepping up in class and he’s never raced in a route race. However, he has good speed and his D Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® makes him competitive in this herd.
COLTANDMISSISSIPPI (6-1) comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 2-0-0 record in four starts including a fifth-place finish in the Smooth Air Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

COLTANDMISSISSIPPI bumped with HANDSOME FRANCO at the start, pressed the pace inside to the turn, and weakened after six furlongs.

Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Coltandmississippi, was a pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two-year-old including a win in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1).
As a three-year-old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
As a stallion, his best runners to date on the Kentucky Derby Trail include Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Classic Empire and Cairo Prince.
Coltandmississippi has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this race. However, I’m not too keen on him for the win.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. McKinzie, 20, Bob Baffert, $240,000
3. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
4. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
5. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
6. Firenze Fire, 10, Jason Servis, $427,500
7. +Free Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
8. Greyvitos, 10, Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
9. Catholic Boy, 10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
10. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
11.  Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
12. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $109,913
13. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $88,500
14. Combatant, 4, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
15. Instilled Regard, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer, $60,000
16. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
17. All Out Blitz, 4, Simon Callahan, $20,000
18. Givemeaminit, 2, Dallas Stewart, $152,000
19. My Boy Jack, 2, Keith Desormeaux, $102,000
20. Lone Sailor, 2, Tom Amoss, $71,347
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2. Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro (JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75.979


Monday, January 8, 2018

LeComte Stakes Racing Roundup

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Louisiana, Saturday, where PRINCIPE GUILHERME will go to the starting gate as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 74th running of the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time is 6:03 ET.
Undefeated in two starts, Principe Guilheme has won his last two races for trainer Steve Asmussen by a combined 18 lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

PRINCIPE GUILHERME was hustled to the front, set the pace in the two path while well rated, responded well when shaken up a bit in upper stretch and drew off under a mild hand ride to win handily.

Principe Guilherme won with ease and is poised to earn some Derby qualifying points with a good run in the LeComte Stakes (G3). With a high A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Principe Guilherme is the best-bred colt in this herd.
Tapit, the sire of Principe Guilherme, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
Principe Guilherme won his last two races with authority and I look for him to run another good race.
INSTILLED REGARD (4-1) comes into this race for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with a 1-2-1 record in four starts including narrow three-quarter-length loss in the controversial Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1). McKinzie, an easy winner of the Sham Stakes (G2) last Saturday, finished second in the Cash Call but was given the win when first-place finisher Solomini was disqualified and placed third. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

INSTILLED REGARD came off the rail into the first turn, chased off the inside, went up four wide on the second turn then bid three deep leaving that turn and into the stretch, fought back between rivals through the drive, was bumped between foes a sixteenth out and also went on gamely.

Instilled Regard was tenacious in the stretch run with McKinzie. The mile split of 1:36.04 and final time of 1:42.57 is what I like to see young colts run on the Derby Trail. However, I thought the disqualification of Solomini was unwarranted.
Arch, the sire of Instilled Regard, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969 in career earnings.
Arch made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3).
As a stallion, Arch’s best Top Lifetime Runners include: Blame, Grand Arch, Arravale, Hymn Book, Art Trader, Les Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine Island.
Instilled Regard has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
PRINCE LUCKY (8-1) comes into this race for trainer Larry Jones with a 3-0-1 record in four starts including a win in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

PRINCE LUCKY, who’s rider did not carry a whip, raced in the five path while between foes, moved out around rivals racing into the stretch, took the lead leaving furlong grounds and drew off under mild handling.

Prince Lucky chased fast fractions and drew away in the stretch to win by 2¾ lengths. He has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him potentially competitive in this herd.
Corinthian, the sire of Prince Lucky, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 6-1-2 record in 12 starts with $1,267,273 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Corinthian went 1-1-0 in two starts. He came back as a three-year-old compiling a 1-0-2 record in three starts including first-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) but he was disqualified to third. Corinthian came out of that race with a hair-line fracture of the left hind leg that knocked him off the Kentucky Derby Trail.
He came back with a debut win as a four-year-old and went on to compile a 4-0-0 record in seven starts with stakes wins in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
Prince Lucky has good speed and I look for him to run a good race.
A long shot I like is LONE SAILOR (15-1) who comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in five starts for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s yet to earn graded stakes honors but he’s been knocking on the door with a third-place finish in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), a second-place finish in the Street Sense Stakes and a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2):

LONE SAILOR was unhurried early on, fanned into the five path in the far turn with a belated gain in the stretch run.

Lone Sailor trailed at the back of the herd until the stretch when he made a run at the leaders and finished fifth, 7¼ lengths behind the victor, Enticed. Lone Sailor has run his best when closer to the pace and new jockey Miguel Mena will need to get him more involved early in the LeComte
Majestic Warrior, the sire of Lone Sailor, compiled a 2-0-0 in seven starts during his racing career with $239,229 in earnings including a win in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and a fourth-place finish in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G2).
Currently Majestic Warrior stands stud in Japan and as a stallion he’s sired numerous graded stakes winners including: Princess of Sylmar, Best Warrior, Lady Sabelia, Declan's Warrior and Mavic.
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Lone Sailor has the breeding to be competitive in this race. However, as a three-year-old, it remains to be seen if he can live up to his breeding.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. McKinzie, 20, Bob Baffert, $240,000
3. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
4. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
5. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
6. Firenze Fire, 10, Jason Servis, $427,500
7. +Free Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
8. Greyvitos, 10, Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
9. Catholic Boy, 10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
10. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
11.  Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
12. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $109,913
13. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $88,500
14. Combatant, 4, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
15. Instilled Regard, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer, $60,000
16. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
17. All Out Blitz, 4, Simon Callahan, $20,000
18. Givemeaminit, 2, Dallas Stewart, $152,000
19. My Boy Jack, 2, Keith Desormeaux, $102,000
20. Lone Sailor, 2, Tom Amoss, $71,347
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2. Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro (JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75.979