Friday, July 30, 2010

Vandal Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Todd Pletcher is looking to claim his first win in the $150,000 Vandal Stakes at Woodbine Saturday when he sends the 9-5 morning line favorite Sensational Slam to the starting gate.

The Grand Slam colt won his debut race on July 3 in the 5 ½ - furlong Clarendon Stakes also at Woodbine. Sensational Slam earned a 93 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort which is the highest of all the other eight horses entered in the Vandal. If Sensational Slam repeats that performance, he will be tough to beat.

Sensational Slam is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been two horses from that sire line to win the Vandal Stakes: Twisted Wit (2003) and Heavenly Valley (1995).

Grand Slam, the sire of Sensational Slam, has five winners in 19 starters for 26 percent and is ranked eighth on the 2010 Juvenile Sire List.

Invitation Only (6-1) would give trainer David Cotey his second Vandal Stakes win. Cotey won the Vandal in 2004 with Moonshine Justice. Invitational Only is still a maiden but he was closing fast in his only start and narrowly lost by three-quarters of a length to Quintana (4-1) who is also entered in the Vandal.

Invitation Only is a descendent of the Northern Dancer sire line and since 1990 there have been six horses from that sire line that have won the Vandal: Leonnatus Anteas (2006), Canadian Triple Crown winner Wando (2002), Rare Friends (2001) Swampster (1999), Nite Dreamer (1997) and Dancing Deputy (1992),

Invitation Only also has a good female line. His dam, Star Guest, is the second dam of Woodbine Oaks winner and Queen’s Plate third-place finisher Roan Inish.

Whippit is also a maiden stepping up in to stakes competition but he looks interesting at 12-1 morning line odds. In his maiden debut, the Champali colt closed a lot of ground in the stretch to get up for third-place.

Whippit adds blinkers for trainer Audre Cappuccitti and if he can be closer to the pace, with a little racing luck, he may be able to be a factor in the Vandal Stakes.

Whippit is a descendent of the Bold Ruler sire line and five horses from that line have won the Vandal since 1990: Win And Reign (2008), Stuck In Traffic (2007), Catahoula Parish (1998), Welbred Fred (1993) and Marious (1991).

Lassair, the sole filly in the field and a full sister to Roan Inish, has very good breeding and at 15-1 morning line odds, she looks like another interesting long shot. However, in her only start, Lassair finished well back in the 12-horse field of the Shadywell Stakes – beaten by 21 lengths.

A recent bullet work indicates that Lassair could be improving and if she looks good in the post parade, she may warrant a small wager. Lassair is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line and her sire, Elusive Quality, is the sire of the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Sanford Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Richard Violette Junior's Bail Out The Cat heads a field of eight 2-year-old thoroughbreds Sunday as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the 96th running of the $150,000 Sanford Stakes (G2) at Saratoga.

Bail Out The Cat is stepping up in class and he has never run in a stakes race – but looks tough in this spot. In his only start, the even-money favorite Bail Out The Cat handily defeated runner-up Soldat by 2 ¼-lengths in a 5-furlong sprint on a muddy track at Belmont last month

Bail Out The Cat earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort and a repeat of that in the Sanford will make him tough to beat.

Bail Out The Cat is a descendent of the Northern Dancer sire line and since 1990, four horses from that line have won the Sanford Stakes: Scat Daddy (2006), Polished Brass (1997), Dehere (1993) and Mountain Cat (1992).

Bail Out the Cat's sire, Tale Of The Cat, has six winners out of 17 juvenile starters for 35 percent.

Dogwood Stables sends to the starting gate the coupled 3-1 second co-choice morning line favorites Lou Brissie and Blue Right By.

Lou Brissie is the only horse in the Sanford with any stakes racing experience. Lou Brissie comes into the race after suffering his fist loss in three starts to Kantharos in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs earlier this month. Prior to that, Lou Brissie won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on April 30, defeating Boys At Tosconova by 1 ½ - lengths.

Lou Brissie is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990, five horses from that line have won the Sanford: Backtalk (2009), Desert Party (2008), Afleet Alex (2004), Whywhywhy (2002) and City Zip (2000).

Lou Brissie's sire, Limehouse, has two winners out of nine starters for 22 percent.

Blue Right By took three tries to break his maiden and comes into the race off of a 2 ½-length win in a 5 ½-length sprint at Churchill Downs on June 19. Blue Right By is also a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line and his sire Bluegrass Cat is ranked second on the 2010 Juvenile Sire List. Bluegrass Cat has eight winners from 23 starters for 35 percent.

Of the two, I like the pedigree of Blue Right By the most and look for him to do better as the races get longer.

A couple of interesting long shots are Maybesomaybenot (6-1) and Nacho Saint (10-1).

Maybesomaybenot comes into the race with a 6-length gate-to-wire romp at Churchill Downs on July 3, covering the 6-furlongs in a time of 1:10.76. I like the progression of Maybesomaybenot and he has been working out good.

Maybesomaybenot is also a descendent of Mr. Prospector. His sire, Sunday Break, won races from 7-furlongs to 8 ½-furlongs and was a pretty good middle-distance runner. His grandsire, Forty Niner, also was a good middle-distance runner and he won the 1987 Sanford Stakes.

Sunday Break has four winners from nine juvenile starters for 44 percent.

Nacho Saint is stepping up in class and, with two second-place finishes, he has yet to break his maiden. But his speed figures have been good and a bullet work out July 18 suggests that he may be ready to run a good race.

Nacho Saint is a descendent of the Bold Ruler sire line and Montreal Red (1994) is the last horse from that line to win the Sanford since 1990.

Nacho Saint's sire, Yes It's True, has two winners from 18 starters for 11 percent.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Del Mar, Saratoga Summer Meet

This story originally appeared in the July/August issue of The Horseplayer Magazine.

Now that the Triple Crown is over, the next crop of 2-year-old thoroughbreds are ready to begin racing.

Pedigree, of course, is one of the most important tool handicappers have when wagering on precocious juveniles – it can determine which horses have the potential to be rising stars and stakes winners.

Not surprisingly, descendents of the Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer sire lines perform extremely well as juveniles, and it would do the horseplayer some good to pay attention to these pedigrees as the prestigious 2-year-old races at Del Mar and Saratoga get underway.

Del Mar (July 21 to September 8)

Del Mar hosts two marquee races for juvenile colts: the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and Del Mar Futurity (G1).

The Best Pal Stakes (G2) is eponymously named after the California-bred racehorse, who began racing at two and had over $5.6 million in earnings when he retired at the age of eight. The Best Pal Stakes (G2) produced this year’s Preakness (G1) winner, Lookin At Lucky, who also won 2009’s Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Traditionally held on the closing day of the meet, the Del Mar Futurity (G1) has long been a springboard for top runners. Del Mar Futurity (G1) winners that became classic champions include:

• Lookin At Lucky (Preakness)
• Silver Charm (Kentucky Derby, Preakness)
• Gato del Sol (Kentucky Derby)
• Tomy Lee (Kentucky Derby).

Saratoga (July 23 to September 6)

Saratoga hosts the Sanford Stakes (G2), Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and Three Chimney’s Hopeful Stakes (G1) – all prestigious races in their own right. Sanford Stakes (G2) winners that went on to become a classic champion include:

• Affirmed (Triple Crown winner)
• Secretariat (Triple Crown winner)
• Afleet Alex (Preakness, Belmont)
• Regret (Kentucky Derby)
• Vagrant (Kentucky Derby)
• Spendthrift (Belmont)

Saratoga Special Stakes winners that became classic champions include:

• Whirlaway (Triple Crown winner)
• Morvich (Kentucky Derby)
• Regret (Kentucky Derby)
• Swale (Kentucky Derby, Belmont)
• Bold Forbes (Kentucky Derby, Belmont)
• Native Dancer (Preakness, Belmont)
• Bimelech (Preakness, Belmont)
• Conquistador Cielo (Belmont)
• Blue Larkspur (Belmont)
• Colin (Belmont)
• Summer Squall (Preakness)

Three Chimney’s Hopeful Stakes winners that became classic champions include:

• Affirmed (Triple Crown winner)
• Secretariat (Triple Crown winner)
• Whirlaway (Triple Crown winner)
• Foolish Pleasure (Kentucky Derby)
• Morvich (Kentucky Derby)
• Regret (Kentucky Derby)
• Ben Ali (Kentucky Derby)
• Afleet Alex ({Preakness, Belmont)
• Man O’War (Preakness, Belmont)
• Native Dancer (Preakness, Belmont)
• Nashua (Preakness, Belmont)
• Bimelech (Preakness, Belmont)
• Needles (Kentucky Derby, Belmont)
• Middle Ground (Kentucky Derby, Belmont)
• Zev (Kentucky Derby, Belmont)
• Jaipur (Belmont)
• Peter Pan (Belmont)
• Summer Squall (Preakness)

Sire Lines for the Last Five Key 2-Year-Old Stakes

Sanford Stakes (G2), $150,000, 6 furlongs, July 25
Year - Horse, Sire, Sire Line
2009 - Backtalk, Smarty Jones, Mr. Prospector
2008 - Desert Party, Street Cry, Mr. Prospector
2007 - Ready’s Image More Than Ready Royal Charger
2006 - Scat Daddy Johannesburg Northern Dancer
Note: in 2005, the Sanford Stakes (G2) was not run.

Best Pal Stakes (G2), purse $150,000, 6 ½ furlongs, August 8
Year - Horse, Sire, Sire Line
2009 - Lookin At Lucky, Smart Strike, Mr. Prospector
2008 - Azul Leon, Lion Heart, Northern Dancer
2007 - Salute The Sarge, Forest Wildcat, Northern Dancer
2006 - Principle Secret, Sea Of Secrets, Northern Dancer
2005 - What A Song, Songandaprayer, Mr. Prospector

Saratoga Special (G2), $150,000, 6 ½ furlongs, August 16
Year - Horse, Sire, Sire Line
2009 - D’Funnybone, D’Wildcat, Northern Dancer
2008 - Run Away and Hide, City Zip, Mr. Prospector
2007 - Kodiak Kowboy, Posse, Northern Dancer
2006 - Chace City, Carson City, Mr. Prospector
2005 - Henny Hughes, Hennessy, Northern Dancer

Three Chimney’s Hopeful (G1), $250,000, 7 furlongs, September 6
Year - Horse, Sire, Sire Line
2009 - Dublin Afleet Alex, Mr. Prospector
2008 - Vineyard Haven Lido Palace, Mr. Prospector
2007 - Majestic Warrior A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler
2006 - Circular Quay Thunder Gulch, Mr. Prospector
2005 - First Samurai Giant’s Causeway, Northern Dancer

Del Mar Futurity (G1), $300,000, 7 furlongs, September 8
Year - Horse, Sire, Sire Line
2009 - Lookin At Lucky, Smart Strike, Mr. Prospector
2008 - Midshipman, Unbridled’s Song, Mr. Prospector
2007 - Georgie Boy, Tribal Rule, Northern Dancer
2006 - Horse Greeley, Mr. Greeley, Mr. Prospector
2005 - Stevie Wonderboy, Stephen Got, Even Bold Ruler

Friday, July 16, 2010

Colin Stakes Racing Roundup

Oh Canada

Juvenile stakes racing action moves North of the border Saturday as trainer Wesley Ward’s Madman Diaries heads a field of five 2-year-olds in the 54th running of the $150,000 Colin Stakes at Woodbine racetrack.

Madman Diaries, the 1-2 prohibitive morning-line favorite, looks like the horse to beat. In May, he broke his maiden in a 4 ½ - furlong sprint at Woodbine by 9 ¾ lengths and followed that up last month with a 9 ¼ - length romp in the 5-furlong Victoria Stakes.

Madman Diaries earned a 96 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort in the Victoria Stakes and that tops the speed figures for all of the horses entered in the Colin Stakes. A recent bullet work out on July 9 and it appears that Madman Diaries is ready to run another good race.

Trainer Nicholas Gonzalez won the Colin Stakes in 2004 with Whoelottabourbon and he starts the 3-1 second choice Glory Game from post position three. Glory Game is stepping up in class and comes into the race off of a 6 ¾ - length maiden win July 2 at Woodbine. Glory Game earned an 89 speed figure for that maiden win.

At 9-2 morning line odds, Devilish Stunt is also stepping up in class but looks like an interesting long shot for a potential upset. Devilish Stunt, trained by Scott Fairlie, comes into the race off a 6-length maiden win, earning a 90 speed figure for that effort.

Fairlie knows how to prepare his charges for big races. Last year, Who’s Big Daddy came in second for Fairlie in the Colin Stakes. A recent sharp 5-furlong work out on July 9 indicates that Fairlie has Devilish Stunt ready to run another good race.

Devilish Stunt is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990, five horses from that line have won the Colin Stakes: Fearless Cowboy (2009); Barilko (2006); Miners Mirage (1995); Chip N Charge (1994) and O’Martin (1993).

Glory Game is a descendent of the Northern Dancer sire line and his great grandsire, Deputy Minister, won the 1981 Colin Stakes. Since 1990, three Northern Dancer sire line horses have won the Colin Stakes: Southern Exchange (2008); Bear Holiday (2007) and Judith’s Wild One (1996).

Madman Diaries is a descendent of the Nasrullah sire line. Rights Reserved (2002) is the only Nasrullah sire line horse to win the Colin Stakes since 1990.

Monday, July 5, 2010

Hollywood Juvenile Stakes Racing Roundup

J P’s Gusto heads a field of eight horses as the 7-5 morning line favorite of the 71st running of the $100,000 Hollywood Juvenile Championship at Hollywood Park.

Trained by David Hofmans, J P’s Gusto comes into the race off a 4 ½ - length maiden win in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes. J P’s Gusto earned a 99 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort which is the highest of all the horses entered in today’s race.

J P’s Gusto is a descendent of the Man o’ War sire line and the last horse from that line to win the Hollywood Juvenile was the 1986 victor Captain Valid who was sired by Valid Appeal – the grandsire of J P’s Gusto.

(Addendum: In 1992, Altazarr was the last Man o' War descendent to win the Hollywood Juvenile Championship.)

Western Mood, the 2-1 second-choice, comes into the race off of a 5-furlong maiden-winning debut last month at Hollywood. Western Mood is owned and trained by Jerry Hollendorfer who won the Hollywood Juvenile in 1988 with King Glorious.

A bullet work out on June 2 indicates that Western Mood should be ready to run another good race.

Western Mood is a descendent of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been five descendents from that line who have won the Hollywood Juvenile: K. O. Punch (1997), Squirtle Squirt (2000), Came Home (2001), Crowned Dancer (2002) and What A Song (2005). Also entered in today’s field, Minutesandtouches (10-1) is a Mr. Prospector sire line descendent.

A couple of nice looking long shots are Marvin’s Magic (8-1) and Edgewick Road (10-1).

Marvin’s Magic comes into the race off of a one-length maiden-winning debut at Emerald Downs last month. Marvin’s Magic earned a 90 speed figure for the effort and has produced several nice work outs since he’s been in training. A sharp work out July 2 and a jockey change to Mike Smith, indicates that Marvin’s Magic could be ready to run another good race.

Marvin’s Magic, a descendent of the Bold Ruler sire line, was sired by Aptitude and his grandsire A.P. Indy was also the grandsire of Perfect Moon who won the 2003 Hollywood Juvenile.

Since 1990, there have been four Bold Ruler sire line descendents who have won the Hollywood Juvenile: Scherando (1991), Yes It’s True (1998), Perfect Moon (2003) and Chandtrue (2004). Also in today’s field, Tappin Tough (20-1) is a Bold Ruler sire line descendent.

In his last outing, Edgewick Road was beaten 13 ¾ -lengths by J P’s Gusto in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes. However, Edgewick Road made a nice run in the stretch to close from seventh to third place and if he can be closer to the pace, with some racing luck, he could be a factor in today’s race.

Edgewick Road is owned and trained by Mike Harrington who also trained his sire Swiss Yodeler – winner of the 1996 Hollywood Juvenile. Edgewick Road is a descendent of the Damascus sire line and since 1990 there have been two descendents from that line who have won the juvenile: Ramblin Guy (1993) and Swiss Yodeler (1996). Also entered in today’s race, Leon Ayala (20-1) is a Damascus sire line descendent.

Interestingly, none of the horses in today’s field are descendents of the Northern Dancer sire line which has produced eight juvenile winners since 1990: Deposit Ticket (1990), Mr. Purple (1994), Hennessy (1995), Dixie Union (1999), E Z Warrior (2006), Salute The Sarge (2007), Azul Leon (2008) and Necessary Evil (2009).

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Queen's Plate Stakes Racing Roundup

A field of 13 horses will compete Sunday in the 151st running of the $1 million Queen’s Plate Stakes (G1) at Woodbine and with the entry of the first and second-place finishers of the Woodbine Oaks and Plate trail, the race is shaping up to be very competitive.

Inaugurated in 1860, The Queen’s Plate is North America’s oldest thoroughbred horse race and trainer Mark Frostad is hoping that his triactor of Hotep, Giant’s Tomb and Dark Cloud Dancer can help him claim his fifth plate victory.

Since returning to Woodbine in May, Hotep, the 3-1 morning line favorite, has finished first in the Wando and placed in the Marine Stakes. Hotep had been campaigned for a bid at the American Classics but was returned to Woodbine after disappointing finishes in the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2).

Hotep is a full brother to last year’s Queen’s Plate winner Eye of the Leopard and he definitely has the breeding to get the distance but I’m somewhat leery about his prospects. I like to see a horse race in a 9-furlong prep before taking on the added distance of 10-furlongs and Hotep’s last race was the 8.5-furlong Marine Stakes.

Giant’s Tomb (12-1) comes into the race with a fourth-place finish in the Plate Trial and the lightly-raced Dark Cloud Dancer (15-1) has yet to run in stakes competition.

Dark Cloud Dancer is my favorite of Frostad’s entries. Dark Cloud Dancer is stepping up in class but he is an improving horse and he’s never been off the board in three starts. In his last race, Dark Cloud Dancer narrowly missed the win by a half-length in a 9-furlong allowance at Woodbine.

Dark Cloud Dancer’s sire is Storm Cat who is known mostly as a sire of sprinters and middle-distance horses but his best router was Giant’s Causeway. I believe that Dark Cloud Dancer should be able to get the distance of the Queen’s Plate as his dam, Dancethruthedawn won the 2001 Queen’s Plate and finished second in the Prince of Wales Stakes (G1). His second dam was the 1991 Canadian Triple Crown winner Dance Smartly.

With some racing luck, I believe that Dark Cloud Dancer could be a factor in the Queen’s Plate.

Trainer Roger Attfield adds blinkers to Mobilizer (7-2) who comes into the race off of a hard-fought second-place finish to Big Red Mike in the Plate Trial. I really like the pedigree of Mobilizer as the first four stallions of the sire line were all Classic Champion Thoroughbreds – as well as the second damsire, Roberto.

A win by Mobilizer would give trainer Roger Attfield his 9th Queen’s Plate victory making him the trainer with the most plate wins.

Mobilizer is also an improving horse and he’s never been off the board in four starts. With the addition of blinkers, a sharp workout on June 25 and the added distance of an extra furlong, I believe that Mobilizer will be tough to beat in the Queen’s Plate.

Moment of Majesty (12-1), who narrowly lost to Roan Inish by a head in the 9-furlong Woodbine Oaks, should also like the added distance of the Queen’s Plate. Her pedigree is stamina-laden with Breeders’ Cup Classic Champion Saint Liam as her sire and the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew and Rainbow Quest on the bottom.

Moment of Majesty appears to have come out of the Oaks in good condition and a sharp bullet work out June 26 indicates that she could be ready to put in another good race.

Big Red Mike (6-1) and Roan Inish (9-2) also look tough in this race.

Big Red Mike went gate-to-wire in the Plate Trial setting soft fractions and it will be interesting to see if he will be able to repeat that effort in the Queen’s Plate.

Roan Inish came from off the pace to win the Oaks by a head and she should be in contention at the end of the Queen’s Plate.

In the past 20 years, nine Queen’s Plate races have been won by descendents of the Northern Dancer sire line. Four Plate winners have been descendents of the Mr. Prospector sire line and Eye of the Leopard is the only Bold Ruler sire line descendent to win since 1990.

Six of the 13 horses entered in the Queen’s Plate are descendents of the Northern Dancer sire line: Mobilizer, Dark Cloud Dancer, Giant’s Tomb, D’s Wando, Who We Gunna Call and Mobthewarrior. Big Red Mike and Roan Inish are descendents of the Mr. Prospector sire line. Hotep and Smart Sky are Bold Ruler sire line descendents.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Bashford Manor Stakes Racing Roundup

The trail to the 2011 Kentucky Derby opens Saturday with the 109th running of the 6-furlong $100,000 Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Six of the past 11 editions of the Bashford Manor Stakes have been won by descendents of the Mr. Prospector sire line. Of the six juveniles entered in the Bashford Manor, four of them are descendents of Mr. Prospector: Gold For Cash, Saturday Dance, Lou Brissie and Thewayitusedtobe. Speed Demon and Kantharos are descendents of the Northern Dancer sire line.

Trainer Steve Asmussen hopes to claim his third Bashford Manor win with the 6-5 morning line favorite Kantharos. Amusssen previously won the Bashford Manor with Kodiak Kowboy in 2007 and Lunarpal in 2004.

With only one start to his credit, Kantharos comes into the race with an impressive 11 ¾ - length romp in the slop at Churchill Downs last May. Jockey Robby Albarado guided Kantharos to his maiden win and retains the mount.

Trainer Neil Howard’s Lou Brissie is the 7-5 morning line second-choice and should be tough in this spot. Undefeated in two starts, Lou Brissie comes into the race with a 1 ½ -length win in the 5-furlong Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (G3), earning a 99 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.

Coincidentally, Limehouse, the sire of Lou Brissie, was also undefeated in two starts when he won the 2003 Bashford Manor Stakes by 4 ½ lengths with Albarado in the saddle. Albarado was also aboard Lou Brissie when he broke his maiden in April but he opted to ride Kantharos in today’s race. Corey Lanerie, who guided Kodiak Kowboy to his Bashford Manor win, will get the mount on Lou Brissie.

A couple of long shots that could add some spice to the exotics are Thewayitusedtobe (15-1) and Saturday Dance (15-1).

Trainer Rafael Flores ships Thewayitusedtobe in from a 3-length maiden win at Arlington Park on June 4. Sunday Break, the sire of Thewayitusedtobe, stands at stud in France and is the sire of Never On Sunday – a multiple group winner in France. The damsire, Double Honor, finished second to speedster Favorite Trick in the 1997 Bashford Manor Stakes.

I like the progression of Saturday Dance who comes into the Bashford Manor with a third-place finish at Keeneland in April and a second-place finish at Churchill Downs on June 19. In his last race, Saturday Dance was 5 ½ lengths back in fourth place going into the stretch and closed ground nicely to finish second – beaten 2 ½ lengths by Blue Right By.

With Roman Ruler as his sire and Lemon Drop Kid as the damsire, it’s only a matter of time before Saturday Dance breaks his maiden. Saturday Dance should like the added distance and with some racing luck he could be competitive in the Bashford Manor.