©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to sunny Florida,
Saturday where Classic Empire will go the starting gate as
the 3-5 morning-line favorite in the 32nd running of the $350,000
Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Classic
Empire comes into this race with a 4-0-0 record in five starts for trainer Mark
Casse, including wins in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), the Clairborne
Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) and the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Stakes (GC1). Here’s the video of the Bashford Manor (G3).
Here’s the video of the Futurity. Here’s the video and chart call of the Juvenile Stakes (G1):
CLASSIC
EMPIRE prompted the pace under rating and to the outside of SYNDERGAARD, drew
on near even terms leaving the three eighths pole, moved to a slim lead a
quarter mile out, kicked clear after being put to a drive in upper stretch,
kept on after repeated left hand rousing the final sixteenth and dug in gamely
to fend off NOT THIS TIME.
Classic
Empire looked good in this race and held off a very nice colt, Not This Time,
who was unfortunately retired after the Juvenile.
Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Gettysburg, was a
pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that
compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two year old including a win in the CashCall
Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
(G1).
As
a three year old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1)
in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Regular
jockey Julian Leparoux retains the mount on Classic Empire and he has ridden
him in all of his previous four victories. I look for the pair to run a good
race.
A
long shot I like in this race is Irish War Cry (15-1) who comes into this race undefeated in two
starts for trainer Graham Motion including a narrow win by a nose in the
Marylander Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
IRISH WAR CRY
gained command between rivals soon after the break, fought restraint while
contesting the pace outside UNDULATED, settled near the half mile marker then
briefly spurted clear three furlongs out, dropped in towards the fence while engaged
by O DIONYSIUS mid turn, dueled inside that one through the duration of the
stretch, kept on under repeated left handed encouragement and prevailed by the
slimmest of margins.
I
like how Irish War Cry persisted down the lane to score the win over a
determined O Dionysius and that duel was probably a good lesson for contests
like the Holy Bull Stakes (G2).
Curlin, the sire of Irish War Cry, was an outstanding
racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800
in career earnings.
Curlin did not
start as a two year old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine
starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and
Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby
(G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important
stakes wins include the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
With
a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Irish War Cry has the breeding to
be competitive in this race and I look for him to run a good race.
Fact Finding (6-1) comes into this race undefeated in three
starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a win by seven lengths in the Smooth
Air Stakes at Gulfstream on December 10. Here’d the video and chart call of that race:
FACT FINDING held
slight lead out of the chute then came under pressure from BASHA, continued to
duel for the lead racing along inside of rival through the backstretch, edged
away past the quarter pole, continued driving on top, pulled away then finished
ridden out in final sixteenth.
Fact
Finding looked good scoring an easy win the Smooth Air Stakes and, with three
straight wins, he appears to be farther along than his sire, The
Factor, was at
this point on the trail.
The
Factor was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 6-2-0 record in 13
starts with $922,180 in career earnings and, as a two year old, he compiled a
1-0-0 record in two starts.
As
a three year old, The Factor won four races in seven starts. His most notable
wins were in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and Rebel Stakes (G2). After finishing
seventh in the Arkansas Derby, The Factor was given a four month rest and came
back to win the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G1) and Malibu Stakes (G2).
The
Factor went on at the age of four to win the San Carlos Stakes (G2) and he finished
second in both the Triple Bend Handicap (G1) and the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1).
Fact
Finding has been training well and a recent bullet work on January 21 could
have him ready to run another good race.
Gunnevera (9-2) comes into the race for
trainer Antonio Sano with a 3-1-0 record in six starts including a win in the
Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:
GUNNEVERA outrun early, advanced outside up the backstretch,
circled rivals entering the second turn, gained the margin at the eighth pole
and steadily drew clear in a solid effort.
Gunnevera
trailed the field until the far turn when he made a big move to take command at
the top of the stretch and not look back.
Gunnevera
has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him
competitive in this race.
Dialed
In, the sire of
Gunnevera, won his only start as a two year old – a 6½ furlong maiden special
weight by a half a length at Churchill Downs in November 2010. As a three year
old, Dialed In won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes, finished second in a
9-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park, and won the Florida
Derby (G1) by a head over Shackleford en route to an eighth place-finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Gunnevera has room to improve in his first
start as a three year old and a repeat of his performance in the Delta Downs
Jackpot (G3) will make him competitive.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes
(G2) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4 points,
the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher
will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby
qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Classic
Empire, 30, Mark Casse, $1,459,520
2. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $260,000
3. Practical
Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000
4. Uncontested,
11, Wayne Catalano, $99,300
5. Gunnevera, 10,
Antonio Sano, $738,600
6. Lookin At Lee,
10, Steve Asmussen, $275,600
7. Mastery, 10,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
8. Mo Town, 10,
Tony Dutrow, $180,000
9. McCraken, 10,
Ian Wilkes, $165,048
10. El Areeb, 10,
Cathal Lynch, $150,000
11. Guest Suite,
10, Neil Howard, $128,040
12. Wild Shot, 6,
Rusty Arnold, II, $87,200
13. No Dozing, 5,
Arnaud Delacour, $85,000
14. Klimt, 4, Art
Sherman, $380,000
15. Hot Sean, 4,
Bob Baffert, $180,000
16. Dangerfield,
2, Doug O’Neill, $168,500
17. Syndergaard,
4, Todd Pletcher, $160,000
18. Irap, 4, Doug
O’Neill, $60,000
19. Petrov, 4,
Ron Moquett, $50,000
20. Bonus Points,
4, Todd Pletcher, $40,000
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
2.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
3.
Blane Eclat, 8, Ryo Takei, $22,340
4.
Lavapies (JPN), 4, Ryuji Okub, $52,163
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