Sunday, March 28, 2010

Sunland Derby Racing Roundup

Undefeated Conveyance puts his record on the line today for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert when he goes to the starting gate as the 9-5 morning line favorite of the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park.

Conveyance has been brilliant in all four of his previous races, winning most of them by going gate-to-wire and he already has enough graded earnings to run in the Kentucky Derby. But the farthest Conveyance has run is 8-furlongs and with his front-running style, the question remains as to whether he can get the 10-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby.

In the San Rafael Stakes (G3), Conveyance won by open lengths but in the Southwest Stakes (G3), Conveyance held on to win by only three-quarters of a length. With Indian Charlie as his sire and Holy Bull as the damsire, the 9-furlongs of the Sunland Derby should not be a problem.

But you never know how well a horse that likes the lead will perform when they stretch out farther and I’ve been waiting to see Conveyance run at 9-furlongs. If he runs well, I believe Conveyance could be a good under-the-radar horse to hit the board or finish in the money in the Kentucky Derby. Only time will tell.

At 10-1 morning line odds, I like Endorsement as my long shot pick. Endorsement makes a big class jump today coming into the race off of a maiden win February 20. His Brisnet Speed Figures have improved with every race and I like the way he has moved forward. Endorsement picks up jockey Robby Albarado for the mount and a bullet work out March 22 suggests that he may be ready to run another good race.

Trainer Steve Klelsaris ships Tempted To Tapit (3-1) in for the Derby and he should like the stretch out to 9-furlongs. Tempted To Tapit was a fast closing second to Discreetly Mine in the 8 ½ -furlong Risen Star (G2), narrowly beating Northern Giant who finished second in yesterday’s Lane’s End Stakes (G2). Tempted To Tapit has been working out good and I look for him to be competitive in today’s race.

Nacho Friend (9-2) comes into the Derby with a third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and trainer Kelly Breen is hoping he’ll stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. The Gotham was Nacho Friend’s first start for the year and he’s eligible to improve in his second start off of the layoff.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Lanes End Stakes Racing Roundup

Todd Pletcher already has Rule, Aikenite and Discreetly Mine going to the Kentucky Derby and he’s looking to add two more to the list of starters when he sends the 9-5 morning line favorite Connemara and Doubles Partner (10-1) to the starting gate of the $500,000 Lanes End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park.

Connemara comes into the Lanes End with three wins and a second-place finish in four starts including the 9-furlong El Camino Real Derby (G3). Connemara obviously has talent but his winning time in the El Camino Real was a slow 1:51.26 and he will need to pick up the pace if he’s going to win the Lanes End. At 9-5 odds, I will give him a pass.

Of Pletcher’s two entries, Doubles Partner looks like an interesting long shot at 10-1 odds.

Last November, Doubles Partner broke his maiden in a 9-furlong turf race at Churchill Downs in a time of 1:50.35. When he returned as a 3-year-old running the same distance at Gulfstream Park, Doubles Partner knocked two seconds off of his previous effort to win in a time of 1:48.41. That’s the kind of improvement I like to see in a colt at this time of year. Doubles Partner should improve in his second start off of the layoff and I look for him to be competitive.

If Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s Dean’s Kitten (5-1) can transfer his recent turf form to synthetic, he is the most likely winner of the Lanes End. Dean’s Kitten finished second in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) earlier this month, beaten by 2 ½ lengths. His estimated time for the 9-furlongs was a blisteringly fast 1:45.82 which is just a few ticks off of the time Connemara ran in the 8 ½ -furlong California Derby. A sharp work out March 20 indicates that Dean’s Kitten may be ready to run another good race.

Trainer Ken McPeek ships in Outlaw Man (8-1) and adds blinkers for his run in the Lanes End. In his last outing, Outlaw Man finished fourth in the Sham Stakes (G3) but he closed well to just narrowly miss finishing third. His Brisnet Speed Figures have improved with every race and his average time of 1:49 and change in his last two races, both at 9-furlongs, makes Outlaw Man very competitive in the Lanes End.

Last year, long shot Flying Private finished second in the Lanes End for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and it looks like Lukas has another solid competitor in Northern Giant (5-1) who comes into race off of a fast-closing, third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Calvin Borel rode Northern Giant to his only win in seven starts and Borel picks up the mount for today’s race.

The pace in the Lanes End should be more to the liking of Northern Giant and a sharp work out March 21 indicates that he may be ready to make another move forward off of his third-place finish in the Risen Star.

Friday, March 26, 2010

Louisiana Derby Racing Roundup

If Todd Pletcher has his way Saturday, he just might be humming a few bars of My Old Kentucky Home if Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazible finish one, two in the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds. Pletcher also has Connemara and Doubles Partner (who I like a lot) entered in the Lanes End (G2) at Turfway Park.

Pletcher already has Rule and Aikenite going to the Kentucky Derby. Discreetly Mine also has enough graded earnings to enter the Derby starting gate. The addition of Mission Impazible, Connemara and Doubles Partner to the lineup would definitely sweeten the Derby pie.

The sun shines bright in the old Kentucky Home. …

One thing is certain, with time running out to get the graded earnings necessary to enter the Derby starting gate, at least 10, maybe 11 of the 13 owners with horses entered in the Louisiana Derby will be singing the blues in “The Big Easy” shortly after the race.

This Louisiana Derby does not appear to the the strongest field and I believe that there are several horses that could win.

Discreetly Mine, the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite, comes into the Louisiana Derby with a gate-to-wire win in the Risen Star (G2) but he probably will not have as easy a trip this time with the addition of A Little Warm (4-1) and Wow Wow Wow (30-1) who most likely will challenge him for the lead.

I probably will pass on Discreetly Mine. Most of his wins have been in sprint races and his winning time in the Risen Star was a slow 1:44.88. However, I do like Mission Impazible (8-1) as one of my long shot picks.

Mission Impazible comes into the race with a fourth-place finish in the 8-furlong Southwest Stakes (G3) and 1-1-1 record in four starts. So far, one mile is the farthest that Mission Impazible has run. But with Unbridled’s Song as his sire and Hold Your Peace as his damsire, Mission Impazible has similar breeding to Old Fashioned, winner of the 2008 Remsen Stakes (G2), and I believe the stretch out to 9-furlongs will be more to his liking. Hold Your Peace was also the damsire of Peace Rules, winner of the 2003 Louisiana Derby.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert ships The Program in for the Derby and at 10-1 morning line odds, I also like him as a long shot pick. The Program comes into the race with a third-place finish in the Sham Stakes (G3). His estimated time of 1:49.23 is on par with the other horses entered in this race and he should be very competitive.

Jockey Martin Garcia retains the mount on The Program and they have been in the money in four of their five previous starts. The Program has only raced on synthetic surfaces but with Harlan’s Holiday as his sire and Deputy Minister as his damsire, I believe that The Program will like the surface switch and the 9-furlongs should not be a problem.

Trainer Nick Zito stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby last Saturday with the first-place finish of Ice Box in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Zito could, perhaps, have another contender with the lightly-raced Fly Down (8-1) who comes into the Derby with an allowance win February 21. Fly Down should improve in his second start off the lay off and his bullet work out March 20 indicates that he could be ready for another good effort.

Trained by Bill Mott, Drosselmeyer (5-1) could also have an impact in the Derby. He finished fourth last out in the Risen Star but was closing ground on Discreetly Mine and was only beaten by two lengths. Drosselmeyer has only been off the board one time in six starts and I believe the 9-furlongs will be more to his liking.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Florida Derby Stakes Racing Roundup

March Madness and Hoop Mania may be in full-court press but I’m beginning to feel Kentucky Derby fever as we enter the far turn of the Derby trail with the 59th running of the $750,000 Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

The Florida Derby has always been one of my favorite prep races on the Kentucky Derby Trail and with the defection of the marquee racehorse Eskendereya, this year’s contest is shaping into an interesting race with the potential for some nice handicapping action.

Several of the eleven horses entered in the Derby like to be on the lead or near the lead. The outcome most likely will boil down to the horse that gets the best trip and is the most fit.

Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Derby in 2007 with the 2-1 favorite Scat Daddy and this year he is looking for his second win with the 5-2 morning line favorite Rule.

Last October, Rule broke his maiden going gate-to-wire in a one mile maiden race at Belmont. Since then, Rule has recorded three straight victories going gate-to-wire including the Delta Jackpot (G3) and Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3).

Rule has a nice pedigree and despite the fact that all of his wins have been gate-to-wire, I believe that 9-furlongs should be well within his ability. Rule could be dangerous if allowed to get the lead in the Florida Derby.

Barbaro won the the 2006 Florida Derby for trainer Michael Matz who sends his younger brother, Lentenor (6-1), to the starting gate. In my opinion, Lentenor is not as good as Barbaro was at this point, but I believe that he has a shot to win the Derby.

Like Barbaro, Lentenor has raced primarily on the turf, but the transition to dirt should not be a problem and his bullet work March 15 indicates that he may be ready for good effort.

In addition to Rule and Lentenor, Game On Dude (12-1) and Soaring Empire (20-1) are a couple of real nice long shots that I will use in several of my wagers.

Lightly-raced Game On Dude steps up in class and comes into the race with a 3-length maiden win February 27. His Brisnet Speed Figures are pretty good and he has been firing bullets in his work outs. I also like Game On Dude’s pedigree and I don’t belive that 9-furlongs will be a problem. If Game On Dude can get a stalking trip, he could be a factor at the finish.

Soaring Empire is also lightly-raced and steps up in class. In his previous two victories, Soaring Empire made an impressive late move to get up for the win. Soaring Empire’s speed figures are competitive and his bullet work out March 14 indicates to me that he is ready to roll.

Miner’s Reserve (6-1), trained by Nick Zito, scored an impressive 5 ½ -length maiden win last out and I look for him to round out the bottom of the exotics.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Reflections On The Kentucky Derby Trail

Yesterday on my blog, I noted that I would like for Super Saver or Odysseus to win the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Odysseus won with a gutsy nose finish over Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver finished a respectable third with only one-half length separting the top three finishers.

Despite the finish, however, I was not overly impressed. The time was a relatively slow 1:44.31. By comparison, Street Sense won the Tampa Bay Derby in 2007 with a time of 1:43.11. Musket Man won it last year in 1:43.67. Odysseus and Super Saver should improve off that effort. But, for now, I’ll just have to see how well they move forward.

At this point on the trail, I’m pretty solid with Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky and Awesome Act as my picks for the Kentucky Derby. I really like the pedigree of Eskendereya - he has been one of my favorites since early January. Lookin At Lucky, trained by Bob Baffert, is one of the most consistent on this year's trail and I expect him to be in the money on May 1. I also like the pedigree of Awesome Act and I believe we haven't, yet, seen his best.

The real test for all this year's contenders will come when they stretch out to 9 furlongs and it’s still possible for a new horse to step forward like my “WOW” horse Summer Bird did at this time last year. I don’t see that happening, however, two horses I’m looking forward to see in their next outing are Yawanna Twist who may run in the Wood Memorial and Conveyance in the Sunland Derby.

Yawanna Twist probably needs to win the Wood Memorial to get nominated to the Kentucky Derby. Conveyance, most likely, has enough graded earnings to start.

It’s not very likely they could win the Kentucky Derby – they would need a lot of luck to pull that off. But, if both of those horses run well at 9 furlongs, I believe they could be good under-the-radar horses to hit the board or finish in the money – especially Conveyance.

For some time now, I’ve been following the progress of Cherokee Run sire line descendents on the Triple Crown Trail and, in previous years, several descendents have proven to be pretty good middle-distance runners. Yawanna Twist was sired by Cherokee Run’s son Yonaguska.

Musket Man finished third in last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Recapturetheglory finished fifth in 2008 and if War Pass had been entered in the Derby, I believe he would have finished in the money.

The pedigree of Conveyance is pretty descent and 9 furlongs should be well within his ability. His sire, Indian Charlie, was the 2-1 favorite of the 1998 Kentucky Derby and Bob Baffert trained him too. However, another Baffert-trained horse, the 8-1, fifth-choice, Real Quiet brought home the Roses. Indian Charlie finished third.

So, with Baffert looking lucky, 2010 could be a replay of 1998.

Of course, this is only speculation – reflections on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup - 3/13

I don’t know yet if I will wager on any of this weekend’s prep races for 3-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby Trail – a lot will depend on what the final odds are at post time. So, for this writeup, I thought I would talk about the horses that I would like to see win.

At this point on the trail, with a little over one month left, I’m looking for the horses I believe have the potential to move forward and be a legitimate contender.

Super Saver, along with Eskendereya and Winslow Homer, has been one of my favorites since early January and I have been eagerly awaiting his debut as a 3-year-old. Of those three, I liked the pedigree of Eskendereya most and he lived up to his breeding with a winning, wow performance in the Fountain of Youth. Winslow Homer is off the trail with an injury.

Super Saver is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and will not offer much value. However, I really like the pedigree of Super Saver and would like to see him win.

Another horse I like a lot in this race, and would not be upset if he won, is Odysseus who is listed as the 7-2 morning line fourth-choice. Odysseus also has a good pedigree filled with several Classic Champion Thoroughbred ancestors. Only time will tell if Odysseus lives up to his breeding.

Of the races this weekend, the Tampa Bay Derby may be the best betting race. If Odysseus stays at 7-2 or goes higher I may play a small win, place wager on him and use him in an exacta with Super Saver. Uptowncharlybrown (5-2) and Schoolyard Dreams (3-1) would round out the trifecta.

Rebel Stakes

Lookin At Lucky is the prohibitive 7-5 morning line favorite in the $300,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn and he already has enough graded-stakes earnings to start in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has said that the Rebel is an “experimental” race with Lookin At Lucky running on dirt and wearing blinkers for the first time.

Dublin is the morning line third choice and I would like to see him win the Rebel. He showed a lot of promise last year in winning the Hopeful Stakes (G1) but finished out the year with two off-the-board finishes in the Champagne (G1) and Iroquois Stakes (G3).

Since then, Dublin had throat surgery to correct a breathing obstruction and he appears to have a new lease on racing. He finished second in his 3-year-old debut, narrowly losing by three-quarters of a length to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes (G3) last month.

Dublin should improve in his second start of the year and I think the Rebel is setting up real nice for him. I really like the pedigree of Dublin and he has fired bullets in his last three workouts at Oaklawn.

I picked Noble’s Promise (5-2) as a good long shot bet in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last fall which he won by a gutsy half-length over Aikenite. I’ve always liked this hard-fighting son of Cuvee who, in six starts, has never been out of the money. I look for Noble’s Promise to put in a repeat performance and if the odds are good, I may use him in an exacta with Dublin.

San Felipe

In February, I picked undefeated Caracortado as a good long shot bet in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) and I look for him to continue his winning ways as the 5-2 morning line favorite of the $150,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita.

Interactif and American Lion, both at 4-1 morning line odds, look like a couple of interesting longshots. If the odds are good, I may use those two with Caracortado in an exacta. If the odds on Interactif stay at 4-1 or go higher, I may play a small win, place bet on him.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup - 3/6

I believe there are several horses that could take home first place honors in the $250,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. But of the 10 entered, Peppi Knows, Shrimp Dancer and Yawanna Twist have been the most consistent.

In his six previous starts, Peppi Knows (10-1) has never been out of the money and he improved his record to 4-1-1 with a first place finish in the Whirlaway Stakes last month. Peppi Knows earned a 101 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort – the highest route speed figure of all entered the Gotham. Peppi Knows defeated Afleet Again and Three Day Rush in the Whirlaway and I believe that he has the most room for improvement in his second start of the season.

In seven starts, Shrimp Dancer (12-1) has only been off the board once and he has been in the money in the other six races. Since switching to dirt, Shrimp Dancer’s speed figures have been in the 90’s range which is better than most of the others entered in the Gotham. Shrimp Dancer should benefit from the added distance and at 12-1 morning line odds, he looks like an interesting long shot.

Of all the horse entered, Yawanna Twist (5-1) and lukewarm 7-2 favorite Awesome Act may have the most room for improvement and I’m looking forward to see how well they run.

Undefeated Yawanna Twist has never run in a route race but he won his last two races, both 6-furlong sprints, by a combined 9 ½ - lengths. Yawanna Twist is from the Cherokee Run sire line which produced the decent middle-distance runners War Pass, Recapturetheglory, The Pamplemousse and Musket Man. If he follows in the same steps, Yawanna Twist could be a factor in the Gotham.

Awesome Act has a nice pedigree but has not raced since last November when he finished fourth to Pounced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2). Awesome Act has the potential but could be up against it in the Gotham coming off the three month layoff.

Sham Stakes

Trainer Michael Machowsky already has a nice Kentucky Derby prospect in undefeated Caracortado and he’s hoping to add another one to his Derby roster when he sends the 3-1 morning line favorite Nextdoorneighbor to the starting gate of the $150,000 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

After two previous attempts, Nextdoorneighbor broke his maiden last month and he will be making his stakes debut in the Sham. Nextdoorneighbor has been working out good with stablemate Caracortado and a bullet work February 15 suggests that he could be ready to run a good race. But, I’m not so sure he is as good as Caracortado, who I like a lot, and I believe there are others in here that could pull off the upset.

Lightly-raced Kettle River (6-1) looks like he could be ready to run a real good race. In his maiden debut last August, Kettle River finished a poor sixth, beaten by 9 ½ - lengths in a 6-furlong sprint at Saratoga. Trainer Eoin Harty gave Kettle River a three month break and brought him back in 8.5-furlong race on the turf which he won by 1 ¼ - lengths.

Last month, Kettle River won another 8.5-furlong race at Santa Anita and earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. His speed figures have improved with every race and I believe that he will be very competitive in this race.

Outlaw Man (6-1) breaks from post number three for trainer Ken McPeek. His last three races were on the turf and McPeek drops him back in distance for today’s race. Outlaw Man broke his maiden last time out and he has finished in the money in his last two races. I look for him to be competitive.

In his maiden debut last September, Setsuko (7-2) finished fourth in a 5 ½ - furlong sprint at Del Mar. Since then, Setsuko has run in five route races, finishing in the money in every outing. His speed figures are consistently in the 80’s and on par with the other runners in this race. I look for him