©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs,
Arkansas, Monday, where Uncontested has been tabbed as the 5-2
morning line favorite in the 52nd running of the $500,000 Southwest
Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Most
of the horses in this race have a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score and have often been
inconsistent in their race performance. However, their Behavior Index can move
some horses up in the profile ranking like favored Uncontested and, perhaps, One
Liner (7-2). In
addition, Cu Rahy is the
best bred horse with an A profile ranking but he has yet to live up to his
breeding.
Ranked
seventh on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, Uncontested comes into this race
with a 2-0-0 record in three starts including a 5¼ length win in the Smarty
Jones Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
UNCONTESTED got clear
soon after an even start, firmly rated in the run up the backstretch,
encouraged with some hand urging to expand that advantage turning for home,
maintained a comfortable lead to the wire under intermittent urging.
Uncontested
won with ease and his finish time of 1:36.32 is what I like to see in a young
colt on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Despite Uncontested’s low Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score, his Behavior Index makes him competitive and if he
runs like he did in his last race, he’ll be tough in the Southwest Stakes (G3).
Tiz Wonderful, the sire of Uncontested, was a multiple graded
stakes winner that compiled a 3-1-0 record in five starts with $254,672 in
career earnings.
As
a two year old, Tiz Wonderful was undefeated in three starts including wins in
the Iroquois Stakes (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
Early
in his racing season as a three year old, Tiz Wonderful suffered a minor tendon injury and he was taken out of
contention for the Derby. After his recovery, Tiz Wonderful resumed racing and
finished sixth in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and second in the More Than Ready
Stakes.
Channing
Hill has ridden Uncontested in all of his previous races and I look for the
pair to run a good race.
A
long shot I like in this race is Silver
Dust (10-1)
who’s stepping up in class and hasn’t raced since last November. Trainer Randy
Morse brings him into Southwest after the three-month layoff with a 1-0-0
record in two starts including a 3½ length maiden win in his last race. Here’s
the video and chart call of that race:
SILVER DUST settled
in hand, split rivals entering the stretch, shook clear and maintained a safe
advantage.
It
looked like Silver Dust was going to be stuck behind horses entering the
stretch. But when a hole opened, Silver Dust found running room and appeared to
be running with authority in the stretch.
Tapit, the sire of Silver Dust, was
a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with
$557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two year old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three year old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s
the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
With
a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating Silver Dust is one of
the best bred colts in this race and since his layoff, he’s been training well
at Oaklawn, firing several bullet works.
Corey
Lanerie retains the mount and I look for Silver Dust to run a good race in his
debut as a three year old and, perhaps, pull an upset at a nice price.
Hence (20-1) is another long shot
that has the breeding to be a factor in this race. He comes into the Southwest
with a 1-1-1 record in four starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a
maiden win in his last race. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
HENCE stumbled
start, patiently handled off the pace and the inside, swept up four wide to
take over turning for home, ducked in sharply past the furlong marker to lose
the advantage, was righted and battled back along the inside to prove best.
Hence,
like Silver Dust, also has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade
rating and he has the breeding to be competitive in this race.
Street Boss, the sire of
Hence, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled a 7-3-1- record in 13
starts with $831,800 in earnings.
Street
Boss did not race until he was a three year old compiling a 1-1-0 record in for
starts. At the age of four, Street Boss was 6-2-1 in nine starts with wins in
the Bing Crosby Handicap (G1), Triple Bend Invitational Handicap (G1) and the
Los Angeles Handicap (G3). He ran second in the Ancient Title Stakes (G1) and
third in the Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
In
the stretch of his last race, Hence appeared to be spooked and he’ll need to
overcome those behavioral issues if he’s going to secure the win.
One
Liner (7-2)
comes into this race undefeated in two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s
stepping up in class and yet to run in a route race. Here’s the video and chart
call of his last race:
ONE LINER was
well placed three wide tracking the early leaders, then drew closer to JERSEY
STREET while being roused around the turn, took command outside into the
stretch and widened while flashed the whip, then was tapped right-handed right at
the wire being instructed to gallop out some.
One
Liner has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but is Behavior Index
could, potentially, make him competitive.
Into Mischief, the sire of One Liner, was precocious as a two
year old and he easily won his maiden debut by 2½ lengths at Santa Anita Park
on October 21 2007. He went on to finish second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes
(G3) and followed that with a win in the 8½-furlong CashCall Futurity (G1). The
finish time of 1:40.82 was just a few ticks off of the record time of 1:40.74
set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of
1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.
In
his debut as a three year old in February 2008, Into Mischief finished second
in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and after an extended break, he returned to
racing in October winning the Damascus Stakes by two lengths. In December, Into
Mischief finished his racing season with a second-place finish in the Malibu
Stakes (G1).
The
stretch out in distance in the Southwest Stakes (G3) should be in the range of One
Liner who’s been training well. A recent bullet work out could have him ready to
run a good race.
Honorable
mention goes to Lookin At Lee (8-1), Petrov (5-1) and Rowdy the Warrior
(20-1) who could, potentially, be factors in the exotics.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Southwest Stakes
(G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4 points,
the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher
will receive one point.
The
pace on the Derby Trail really begins to quicken next weekend on February 25
with the Risen Star Stakes (G2) as the debut race of the Championship Series, which
consists of 16 races. The winner of those races will receive 50 points, the
second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will
receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway
through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2)
on March 25, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points
for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Classic
Empire, 32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
2. El Areeb, 20,
Cathal Lynch, $300,000
3. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
4. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $260,000
5. Gunnevera, 14,
Antonio Sano, $807,200
6. Practical
Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000
7. Uncontested,
11, Wayne Catalano, $99,300
8. Lookin At Lee,
10, Steve Asmussen, $275,600
9. Irish War Cry,
10, Graham Motion, $272,660
10. Mastery, 10,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
11. Mo Town, 10,
Tony Dutrow, $180,000
12. Guest Suite,
10, Neil Howard, $128,040
13. Royal Mo, 10,
John Sherriffs, $90,000
14. Irap, 8, Doug
O’Neill, $90,000
15. Wild Shot, 7,
Rusty Arnold, II, $97,200
16. True Timber,
6, Kiaran McLaughlin, $65,000
17. No Dozing, 5,
Arnaud Delacour, $89,000
18. Bonus Points,
5, Todd Pletcher, $52,500
19. Klimt, 4, Art
Sherman, $380,000
20. Hot Sean, 4,
Bob Baffert, $180,000
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Here’s the video of the Cattleya
Sho Stakes.
Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
good write up,thanks
ReplyDeleteThanks, Sean.
Delete