Thursday, April 14, 2016

Arkansas Derby Racing Roundup



©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where the final prep race worth 100 points to the victor will be ran at Oaklawn Park. A field of 12 has been drawn for the 80th running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) with Cupid tagged as the 2-1 morning-line favorite. Post time is 7:18 ET.
To date, Cupid has compiled a 2-1-0 record in four starts for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert, including a 1¼ length win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 19. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

CUPID broke behind the leaders, used to secure inside position up front into the first turn, pace, given a breather into the far turn when maintaining daylight advantage, dipped in when straightened for home, continued to hold a daylight edge past the furlong marker, responded when the runner up challenged late, kicked clear again in the waning strides in finding more.

Setting fast early fractions, Cupid led from gate to wire and crossed the finish line in the final time of 1:43.84.
Like many horses on this year’s trail, Cupid has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. However, his Behavior Index makes him competitive and it will be interesting to see he can carry his speed to nine furlongs and still be victorious.
Tapit, the sire of Cupid, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Baffert won this race in 2015 with American Pharoah and Bodemeister in 2012. But, Cupid does not appear to be in league with them and time will tell if he can get Baffert to the winners circle.
Suddenbreakingnews (5-1) is a horse I liked last fall and I wrote about in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook. With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s the best bred horse in this race and time will tell if he lives up to his breeding.
To date, Suddenbreakingnews has compiled a 3-3-0 record in seven starts including a troubled trip in the Rebel Stakes (G2) where he finished a disappointing fifth to Cupid. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS raced well back early, in some traffic while still back far turn, briefly lost action inside of a rival, steadied, moved out for the drive then mounted a mild rally down the middle of the strip.

Suddenbreakingnews has good speed but he’ll need to be closer to the pace in this race if he’s going to be the victor.
Mineshaft, the sire of Suddenbreakingnews, was an outstanding route racer who compiled a 10-3-1 record in 18 lifetime starts. He began his racing career in England at the age of three, winning a maiden weight for age race at Newmarket. In November, Mineshaft was shipped to America where he won two more races to close out the season with a 3-1-1 record in nine starts.
As a four year old, Mineshaft really proved himself as a champion and compiled a 7-2-0 record in route to earning Horse of the Year and Champion Older Horse honors. In nine starts, Mineshaft won the New Orleans Handicap (G2), Ben Ali Stakes (G3), Pimlico Special Handicap (G1), Suburban Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1) and the Jockey Club Gold Club Stakes (G1).
Suddenbreakingnews has the breeding to wear the “Roses in May.” However, it remains to be seen if he has classic potential.
Gettysburg (6-1) ships in from Keeneland where he been training for Todd Pletcher and he comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in five starts including a second-place finish in the Sunland Park Festival of Racing Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

GETTYSBURG chased the early leader, went four wide into the stretch to vie and sustained a mild gain.

Gettysburg broke from the far outside post and got into position in second place but was unable to pass Collected who led throughout the race. The time for the mile of 1:35.94 and final time of 1:48.90 is what I like to see a young colt run on the Derby trail.
Gettysburg is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and his C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® makes him competitive in this race.
Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Gettysburg, was a pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two year old including a win in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1).
As a three year old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Gettysburg has yet to win a stakes race and he has room to improve off of his second-place finish in his last race.
Jockey John Velazquez gets the mount and I look for the pair to run a good race.
A long shot I like in this race is American Pioneer (8-1) who’s lightly raced with a 1-1-0 record in two starts and stepping up to in class for trainer Wayne Catalano. He comes into this race off of a 3¾-length maiden win last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

AMERICAN PIONEER forwardly placed, dropped to the inside second turn, slipped through in challenging turning for home, quickly clear, ridden out.

American Pioneer looked good in his maiden win and was wrapped up at the end of the race. However, his final time of 1:44.46 and 1:38.25 for the mile is slower than I like and he’ll have to improve on that.
American Pioneer is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd and he also has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
Awesome Again, the sire of American Pioneer, did not race as a two year old. But he was a good router and multiple graded-stakes winner that ran his best from a mile to 10 furlongs, and was selected as the 2001 Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame inductee.
At the age of three, Awesome Again compiled a 3-0-2 record in six starts with wins in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the Canadian classic Queen’s Plate Stakes.
As a four year old, Awesome Again was undefeated in six starts with wins in five stakes races including the Stephen Foster Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1), both at nine furlongs, and the 10 furlong Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (G3), Saratoga Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic where he defeated the 1997 Kentucky Derby winner, Silver Charm.
Jockey Rafael Bejarano gets the mount and American Pioneer has room to improve in his third start of the season.
Honorable mention goes to Whitmore (9-2) and Creator (10-1) who have been competitive on the Arkansas trail and could be factors in this race.


*****
The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner will receive 100 points, second-place finishers will receive 40 points, third-place finishers will get 20 points and fourth-place finishers will get 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Gun Runner, 151, Steve Asmussen, $849,200
2. Nyquist, 130, Doug O’Neill, $2,289,000
3. Exaggerator, 126, Keith Desormeaux, $1,628,000
4. Outwork, 120, Todd Pletcher, $600,000
5. Brody’s Cause, 114, Dale Romans, $1,100,000
6. Lani, 100, Mikio Matsunaga, $1,300,119
7. Mor Spirit, 84, Bob Baffert, $616,800
8. Mohaymen, 80, Kiaran McLaughlin, $807,850
9. Danzing Candy, 60, Cliff Sise, Jr., $290,000
10. Destin, 51, Todd Pletcher, $338,000
11. Cupid, 50, Bob Baffert, $540,000
12. *Oscar Nominated, 50, Mike Maker, $321,360
13. Shagaf, 50, Chad Brown, $270,000
14. Tom’s Ready, 44, Dallas Stewart, $270,670
15. Majesto, 40, Gustavo Delgado, $190,000
16. Trojan Nation, 40, Paddy Gallagher, $190,000
17. My Man Sam, 40, Chad Brown, $200,000
18. Mo Tom, 32, Tom Amoss $328,326
19. Fellowship, 32, Stanley Gold, $210,590
20.  Adventist, 32, Leah Gyarmati, $155,000
*Will be supplemented to Derby.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Picks Wood Memorial Stakes Winner, Exacta



©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Congratulations to all who may have used my Wood Memorial (G1) selections Outwork ($6.80, 4.80, 3.90) and Trojan Nation ($40.60, 13.40) as a two dollar wager netted them $319.50 for the Exacta. Here’s a look at what I wrote about them:

A huge long shot I like in this race is Trojan Nation (30-1) who ships in from California for trainer Patrick Gallagher. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

TROJAN NATION between foes early, settled off the rail, continued outside leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch, drifted in some and bested the others.

Trojan Nation is yet to break his maiden and he comes into this race with a 0-0-3 record in five starts. Gallagher must like what he sees in this improving colt and, perhaps, the Wood is an easier spot for him than the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Indeed, with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Trojan Nation is the best-bred colt in this herd. But, he’s yet to live up to that breeding.
Street Cry, the sire of Trojan Nation, was an outstanding, multiple graded stakes winner who finished in the money in all 12 of his lifetime starts, compiling a 5-6-1 record with $5,150,837 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Street Cry lost out on graded stakes honors by the narrowest of margins with second-place finishes in both the Del Mar Futurity (G2) and Norfolk Stakes (G2) and a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).
As a three year old, Street Cry won the UAE 2,000 Guineas and finished second in both the UAE Derby (G2) and Discovery Handicap (G3).
Street Cry’s best season was as a four year old when he compiled a 3-1-0 record in four starts with victories in the Maktoum Challenge-Round 3 (G2), Dubai World Cup (G1) and Stephen Foster Handicap (G1). Street Cry finished his racing career with a second-place finish in the Whitney Handicap (G1).
One never knows if a young Thoroughbred, like Trojan Nation, will live up to his breeding and there can be many factors that contribute to a horse not running to his Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® – Effinex is a good example of that.
Trojan Nation has room to improve in his third start of the season, and a recent bullet work out might have him ready to make another step forward and, perhaps, a payoff at a nice price.
Outwork (5-2) is an improving colt who comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a second-place finish to Destin in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Here’s the video and chart of that race:

OUTWORK set the pace on the inside, dueled on the far turn, dug in gamely inside and battled the winner through the lane.

After leading throughout the race, Outwork finally gave up the lead and was a one length, runner up to Destin who set a new track record time of 1:42.82 in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
Uncle Mo, the sire of Mo Tom, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.
As a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis. 
Outwork is one of several Uncle Mo colts on this year’s trail and he has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score. However, his Behavior Index makes him competitive, and, sometimes, horses with a low profile score can win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.
It will be interesting to see if Outwork can finish better in this race than his sire, Uncle Mo, who finished third in the 2011 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).

Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree of the horse if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.
In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.
Some unique features of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®:

  • It unlocks the secret of the Ancestral Herd influence.

  • Is a valuable handicapping tool that shows in the profile score which horses have the potential to be top-quality stakes winners or a classic winner of races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

  • Is a valuable breeding analytical tool that shows horse owners and breeders how a mare can upgrade or downgrade a stallion she is bred to through the profile score of the foal from that mating.

  • Shows if the foal has the potential to be a quality stakes horse or classic champion.

  • Shows horse owners how their entire bloodstock can be upgraded by using the profile score to help them make the best breeding decisions resulting in less overbreeding and fewer potential equine welfare issues.

  • Is a valuable Thoroughbred sales analytical tool that shows buyers how to make the best decisions and investments when buying horses at auction.

  • Shows which horses purchased at auction may have the potential to be a top-quality stakes winner while a select few will have a profile score that indicates they could be a winner of a classic race like the Kentucky Derby.

If you are planning to breed, or purchase at auction, a potential classic-winning Thoroughbred, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need to take the guesswork out of buying and breeding champion racehorses.
The empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will easily show you which horses have the potential to be classic champions while other horses may only be quality stakes winners.
The profile will give you the important information necessary to make the best decisions and investments when breeding or buying horses at auction. For a free consultation, please contact us at my website Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC.

Friday, April 8, 2016

Santa Anita Derby Stakes Racing Roundup



©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, with three marquee races on tap, the Road to the Kentucky Derby enters the stretch drive taking us to Kentucky, New York and California where winners of those races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
At Santa Anita Park in California, Mor Spirit has been tagged the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 80th running of the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1). Post Time is 6 p.m. ET. Television coverage of the race will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network from 5-7 p.m. ET.
Compared to the small fields in the previous California prep races, the Derby field has grown to 10 entrants, but it’s difficult to imagine any of the new runners being much of a factor.
Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert trains Mor Spirit and he’s had good fortune in this race, previously winning it a record seven times with Dortmund (2015), Midnight Interlude (2011), Pioneerof the Nile (2009), Point Given (2001), General Challenge (1999), Indian Charlie (1998) and Cavonnier (1996).
Whether Mor Spirit can bring Baffert more good fortune remains to be seen. He comes into this race with a 3-3-0 record in six starts, including a win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and a second-place in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

MOR SPIRIT pulled his way along a bit off the rail and steadied off heels on the first turn, chased just off the inside then angled to the fence into the stretch, came out under left handed urging past mid-stretch and out-finished a rival for the place.

Mor Spirit only lost by two lengths. But he made a nice move from fifth-place to get up for second and with a few more strides, probably would have closed the gap to score the win.
With a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Mor Spirit is one of the better-bred horses in this herd. But, he’s yet to show the same “spirit” on the racetrack as that of his sire, Eskendereya, who has an A profile rating.
Eskendereya was a competitive colt and my favorite on the 2010 Kentucky Derby Trail until he was sidelined with an injury. During his career, Eskendereya compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts which culminated in a 9¾ length romp in the 2010 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).
Other key stakes wins include a runaway win by 8½ lengths in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and an impressive 7¼ length victory Pilgrim Stakes.
Hall of Fame Jockey Gary Stevens has ridden Mor Spirit in five of his previous six starts and he returns to the irons. A recent bullet work out could have Mor Spirit ready to run a good race and score a win leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Danzing Candy, winner of the San Felipe Stakes (G2), has been tabbed as the 9-5 morning-line second choice and he comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in four starts for trainer Clifford Sise. Here’s the chart call of his last race:

DANZING CANDY had speed outside a rival then inched away on the first turn, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, continued along the fence in the stretch and held on gamely under left handed urging.

Danzing Candy is a fast colt and he showed his speed in this race, leading from start to finish.
Like many horses on this year’s trail, Danzing Candy has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score. However, his Behavior Index makes him competitive, and, sometimes, horses with a low profile score can win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.
Twirling Candy, the sire of Danzing Candy, was a multiple graded stakes winner that was competitive in sprint and route races up to nine furlongs. During his racing career, he compiled a 7-1-1 record in 11 starts with $944,900 in career earnings.
On November 29, 2009, Twirling Candy won his first and only start as a two year old in a seven furlong sprint at Hollywood Park. As a three year old, he returned to racing in May and during that year he compiled a 4-0-0 record in five starts including wins in the Oceanside Stakes, Del Mar Derby (G2) and Malibu Stakes (G1).
At the age of four, Twirling Candy was 2-1-1 in five starts including wins in the Strub Stakes (G2) and Californian Stakes (G2).
Jockey Mike Smith has ridden Danzing Candy in three of his four starts and he returns to the irons.
A recent bullet work out could have Danzing Candy ready to run a good race, and it remains to be seen if he can carry his speed to nine furlongs to score a win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Exaggerator (4-1) is the morning-line third choice and he comes into this race for trainer Kent Desormeaux with a 3-2-1 record in eight starts including a third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). Here’s the chart call of that race:

EXAGGERATOR forced out some at the start, angled in and saved ground off the pace, moved up inside on the second turn, came out and bumped a rival nearing the quarter pole, angled out into the stretch, loomed behind the winner in mid-stretch, drifted in late and was edged for second.

In eight starts, Exaggerator has only been out of the money twice and if he runs to his previous form he should be competitive in this race.
Curlin, the sire of Exaggerator, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Regular jockey Kent Desormeaux returns to the irons and I look for them to run a good race.
Honorable mention goes to Denman’s Call (15-1) and Dressed in Hermes (15-1) who could, perhaps, be a factor in the exotics.


*****
The winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) will receive 100 points, second-place finishers will receive 40 points, third-place finishers will get 20 points and fourth-place finishers will get 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Gun Runner, 51, Steve Asmussen, $849,200
2. Nyquist, 130, Doug O’Neill, $2,289,000
3. Lani, 100, Mikio Matsunaga, $1,300,119
4. Mohaymen, 80, Kiaran McLaughlin, $807,850
5. Destin, 51, Todd Pletcher, $338,000
6. Cupid, 50, Bob Baffert, $540,000
*. Oscar Nominated, 50, Mike Maker, $321,360
7. Danzing Candy, 50, Cliff Sise, Jr., $240,000
8. Shagaf, 50, Chad Brown, $240,000
9. Mor Spirit, 44, Bob Baffert, $416,800
10. Tom’s Ready, 44, Dallas Stewart, $270,670
**. f-Polar River, 40, Doug Watson, $700,000
11. Majesto, 40, Gustavo Delgado, $190,000
12. Mo Tom, 32, Tom Amoss $328,326
13. Fellowship, 32, Stanley Gold, $210,590
14. Exaggerator, 26, Keith Desormeaux, $1,028,000
15. Whitmore, 24, Ron Moquett, $300,000
16. Laoban, 22, Eric Guillot, $92,000
17. Azar, 20, Todd Pletcher, $273,800
18. Forevamo, 20, All Stall, Jr., $210,000
19. Dazzling Gem, 20, Brad Cox, $100,000
20. Zulu, 20, Todd Pletcher, $79,200
*Will be supplemented to Derby. **Not nominated to Derby