2017 Kentucky Derby Outlook

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Once again, it’s time to take a look at the young Thoroughbreds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and prepare the 2017 Kentucky Derby Outlook which is an annual tradition here at the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds blog. I always enjoy researching this blog and, by far, my best pick was in December of 2010 when I wrote in my 2011 Kentucky Derby Outlook that Animal Kingdom would most likely be my Derby favorite. At that time, Animal Kingdom had a 1-1-0 record in two starts – both were maiden special weight races on all-weather tracks.

I had no idea if the connections planned to give Animal Kingdom a classic campaign. But research of his pedigree showed me that, given a chance, he had the potential to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred.

Now that the racing season for two years old has come to an end, let’s take a look at the current top 20 horses that have qualified for the 2017 Kentucky Derby (G1).

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Classic Empire, 30, Mark Casse, $1,459,520

2. Practical Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000

3. Gunnevera, 10, Antonio Sano, $738,600

4. Lookin At Lee, 10, Steve Asmussen, $275,600

5. Mastery, 10, Bob Baffert, $240,000

6. Gormley, 10, John Sherriffs, $200,000

7. Mo Town, 10, Tony Dutrow, $180,000

8. McCraken, 10, Ian Wilkes, $165,048

9. Wild Shot, 6, Rusty Arnold, II, $87,200

10. No Dozing, 5, Arnaud Delacour, $85,000

11. Klimt, 4, Bob Baffert, $380,000

12. Hot Sean, 4, Bob Baffert, $180,000

13. Dangerfield, 2, Doug O’Neill, $168,500

14. Syndergaard, 4, Todd Pletcher, $160,000

15. Irap, 4, Doug O’Neill, $60,000

16. Straight Fire, 2, Keith Desormeaux, $96,000

17. Favorable Outcome, 2, Chad Brown, $50,345

18. Recruiting Ready, 2, Horacio DePaz, $43,750

19. Takaful, 2, Kiaran McLaughlin, $30,000

20. Warrior’s Club, 2, D. Wayne Lukas, $18,600

x-Not This Time, retired to stud at Taylor Made Farm.

In addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. The horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

2016/2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer

1. Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki

2. Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara

3. Blane Eclat, 8, Ryo Takei

4. Lavapies (JPN), 4, Ryuji Okub

At this time of year, it is very difficult to pick the Kentucky Derby winner when one only looks at the current list of top 20 horses. And, I documented that difficulty in my December 26, 2014 blog where I analyzed the results of 14 years of two-year-old Thoroughbreds on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

The races used in that analysis were the major end-of-year prep races: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Hollywood Futurity (G1), Remsen (G2), Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot (G3).

Historically, those prep races have produced a few runners that went on to compete in the Kentucky Derby (G1). However, since 2000 only five horses that competed in those prep races went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Nyquist was undefeated in four starts when he won the 2015 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). He remained undefeated early in his season as a three year old and won the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a 1¼ length victory in the 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Street Sense won the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1); Super Saver won the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and the 2010 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Giacomo finished second in the 2004 Hollywood Futurity (G1) and won the 2005 Kentucky Derby (G1). Mine That Bird finished 12^th (dead last) in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and won the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Since 2000, there have been no winners of the Remsen Stakes (G2) that went on to win the Kentucky Derby and the same is true for the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) which began racing in 2002. It’s interesting to note that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) has produced the most runners that went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1): Nyquist, Street Sense and Mine That Bird.

With that in mind, let’s look at the current top 20 and see how they fared in the previously mentioned end-of-year prep races:

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

CLASSIC EMPIRE: a bay colt by Pioneerof the Nile out of Sambuca Classica by Cat Thief, currently tops the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with 30 points and he’s trained by Doug O’Neil.

Classic Empire goes into his three year old season with four wins in five starts including wins in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), Claiborne Breeders Futurity (G1) and the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Juvenile:

CLASSIC EMPIRE prompted the pace under rating and to the outside of SYNDERGARRD, drew on near even terms leaving the three eighths pole, moved to a slim lead a quarter mile out, kicked clear after being put to drive in upper stretch, kept on under repeated left handed rousing in the final sixteenth and dug in gamely to fend off NOT THIS TIME.

Classic Empire has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index and other potential Data Mining variables make him competitive. If he stays healthy, I look for him to be in the Derby starting gate. However, it remains to be seen if he has any classic potential. His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, sired the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

Pioneerof the Nile was a good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two year old including a win in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1).

As a three year old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Other top 20 horses that ran in this race include: third-place finisher Practical Joke (ranked second with 14 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard points), fourth-place finisher Lookin at Lee (ranked fourth with 10 points), Syndergaard, fifth-place finisher (ranked 14^th with four points), seventh-place finisher Gormley (ranked sixth with 10 points) and Klimt who finished eighth (ranked 11^th).

In addition to Classic Empire, I’m especially interested to see how Gormley and Practical Joke will fare as three years old on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY

MASTERY: a dark bay, brown colt by Candy Ride out of Steady Course by Old Trieste, is currently ranked fifth in the point standings and he’s trained by Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert.

Mastery was a perfect three wins in three starts as a two year old including victories in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Futurity:

MASTERY had good early speed and dueled outside a rival, was fanned out some into the stretch, inched away under left hand urging, then drifted in and drew off under steady handling late.  

Like Classic Empire, Mastery also has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive.

Candy Ride, the sire of Mastery, was bred in Argentina and during his racing career he was undefeated in six starts.

In his maiden debut as a three year old, Candy Ride won the Premio El Quimico, a six furlong sprint, by 12 lengths. He went on to finish the season with a win in the one mile Gran Premio San Isidro (G1) by eight lengths and another win by eight lengths in the one mile Joaquin S de Anchorena (G1).

As a four year old, Candy Ride was shipped to America where won his U.S. debut in an 8½ furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Hollywood Park on June 7, 2003. A month later, he ran on the turf winning the 9 furlong American Handicap (G2) and in August, Candy Ride was able to carry his speed to a 3¼-length victory in the 10 furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) in a record time of 1:59.11.

If Mastery continues to improve as a three year old, he could earn a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Other top 20 horses that ran in this race are: my long shot pick Irap who finished second (ranked 15^th with four Derby Leaderboard points) and third-place finisher Dangerfield (ranked 13^th with four points). Dangerfield was my long shot pick in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3).

REMSEN STAKES

MO TOWN: a bay colt by Uncle Mo out of Grazie Mille by Bernardini, is ranked seventh with 10 Derby points and he’s trained by Anthony Dutrow.

Mo Town compiled a 2-1-0 record in three starts as a two year old including a 2 ½ length win in the nine furlong Remsen Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Remsen:

MO TOWN raced three wide on the clubhouse bend, rapidly moved up to latch on to TAKAFUL as the tempo softened during the setting of the second split, was patiently ridden keeping an eye on that foe all throughout the run on the far turn, narrowed in after three-quarters had been reached, spun into the lane directly alongside the one to catch, challenged in earnest when switched over to a drive in the vicinity of the three-sixteenths marker, took charge during the ensuing sixteenth, steadily added to the margin, kept busy to the end.

Mo Town has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score and he was sired by Uncle Mo, sire of the 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, Nyquist. Whether Mo Town has any classic potential remains to be seen. But his Behavior Index makes him competitive and he if continues to improve as a three year old he could earn a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Uncle Mo was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.

As a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis. 

Other top 20 horses that ran in this race include: second-place finisher No Dozing (ranked 10^th with 5 points) Takaful (ranked 19^th with two points). I’m very interested to see how those two fare as three year olds, especially Takaful who has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and the potential, if he lives up to his breeding, to be competitive in the Derby.

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES

MCCRAKEN: a bay colt by Ghostzapper out of Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold, is ranked eighth with 10 points and he’s trained by Ian Wilkes.

Like Mastery, McCracken was a perfect three wins in three starts as a two year old including victories in the Street Sense Stakes and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Jockey Club:

MCCRACKEN was unhurried early, swung into the six path in the far turn, made a bid four wide down the lane, edged clear past the leader while ridden out to the finish.

Like many of the horses in the top 20, McCraken has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score and his Behavior Index makes him competitive.

Ghostzapper, a 2012 Hall of Fame inductee and the sire of McCraken, was an incredibly talented, multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 9-0-1 record in 11 starts with $3,466,120 in career earnings.

As a two year old, Ghostzapper won his maiden special weight debut by nine lengths and was 1-0-0 in two starts. At the age of three, Ghostzapper won the Vosburgh Stakes (G1) and finished third in the King’s Bishop (G1), compiling a 3-0-1 record in four starts.

As a four year old, Ghostzapper was undefeated in four starts winning the Tom Fool Handicap (G2), Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3), Woodward Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (G1). In addition, Ghostzapper was selected as the 2004 Eclipse Horse of the Year and Eclipse Champion Older Horse.

In his only start as a five year old, Ghostzapper was a 6¼ length winner of the one mile Metropolitan Handicap (G1).

Other top 20 horses that ran in this race include: Wild Shot (ranked ninth with six points) and Warrior’s Club (ranked 20^th with two points). Wild Shot was my long shot pick in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland and he paid $18.60 for the show. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score, I’m especially interested to see how Wild Shot fares on the trail as a three year old.

DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT

GUNNEVERA: a chestnut colt by Dialed In out of Unbridled Rage by Unbridled is ranked third with 10 Derby points and he’s trained by Antonio Sano.

As a two year old, Gunnevera compiled a 3-1-0 record in six start including wins in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of the Jackpot:

GUNNEVERA outrun early, advanced outside up the backstretch, circled rivals entering the second turn, gained the margin at the eighth pole and steadily drew clear in a solid effort

Gunnevera has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. If he continues to improve as a three year old, he could, perhaps, make it into the Derby starting Gate.

In his only start as a two year old Dialed In, the sire of Gunnevera, won a 6½-furlong maiden special weight by a half a length at Churchill Downs in November 2010. As a three year old, Dialed In won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes, finished second in a 9-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park, and won the Florida Derby (G1) by a head over Shackleford en route to an eighth place-finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Other top 20 horses that ran in this race include: second-place finisher Hot Sean (ranked 12^th with four Derby points) and third-place finisher Dangerfield (ranked 13^th with four points).

(Three horses that did not compete in one of the traditional end-of-year prep races include Favorable Outcome who finished 12^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), Straight Fire who finished third in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) and Recruiting Ready who finished third in the Buffalo Man Stakes.)

CATTLEYA SHO

The Cattleya Sho is not a traditional end-of-year prep race. But since this is the first year that Churchill Downs has included it in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, I’m including it in this analysis.

MONT SAINT LEGAME (JPN): a chestnut colt by Came Home out of Julia Biko (JPN) by Jade Robbery tops the Japan Leaderboard with 40 points and he’s trained by Koji Maki.

Mont Saint Legame (JPN) is undefeated in two starts including the one mile Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video of that race.

One horse that intrigues me a lot from this race is the second-place finisher, Caucus. He has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score and he’s owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Also, his trainer, Hideaki Fujiwara, is ranked seventh in the Japan Racing Association trainer standings. 

*****

So, there’s how the Japanese runners and current top 20 fared in their end-of-year prep races. In my profile analysis, I have not taken into account the horses competing in Japan but will include the top qualifier if he comes to America to compete in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Below is a listing of the current top 20 ranked according to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score:

Of the current top 20, only Takaful in chart number one has an A+ profile ranking while Gormley and Wild Shot both have an A ranking. No Dozing and Straight Fire have a B ranking while Looking at Lee, Recruiting Ready, Mo Town, Classic Empire and Gunnevera have a C ranking. All the other horses have a low profile score.

Our research, which is documented in my numerous blogs and on my website, shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score (Chart One) which is a measurement of the breeding influences found in the five-generation pedigree.

In addition to the breeding influences found in the pedigree, horse behavior is also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the racetrack and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is the addition of the Behavior Index which I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

The Behavior Index is proving to be a very valuable analytical tool, and, with its addition to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.

For example, in chart number two McKraken, Mo Town, Gunnevera, Mastery, Practical Joke and Dangerfield all originally have low profile scores but they move up in the ranking when you add the Behavior Index to their profile score. Some horses that have low profile scores can be moved up because their Behavior Index makes them competitive, enabling them to sometimes win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.

In addition, if you also add Data Mining to the profile score and Behavior Index of Classic Empire he moves to the top of chart number two. Time will tell if adding Data Mining to his profile score is justifiable. In the final analysis, there could also be other horses, like Mastery, that could benefit from adding Data Mining to their score.

Horses with high profile scores like Takaful, Gormley and Wild Shot, I’ll be watching closely to see if they live up to their breeding. If they fail to run close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full potential needs to be investigated. And there can be many contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.

In addition to the top 20 qualifiers previously mentioned, there are a lot of other unranked horses that could perhaps have an impact on the Derby Trail. Below is a top 10 list of horses I’m following that have an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.

NEED TO QUALIFY FOR TOP TWENTY

1. Seau: a bay colt by Distorted Humor out of Supercharger by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 0-1-2 (4)

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

In Training: Santa Anita Park

2. Champions Maternal: a chestnut colt by Giant’s Causeway out of Danceinthesunlight by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 0-0-1 (2)

Trainer: John Servis

In Training: Palm Meadows Training Center

3. Bodie Ramsey: a bay colt by Bodemeister out of Elaganter by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 0-0-0 (1)

Trainer: Michael Maker

In Training: Belmont Park

4. Society Beau: a bay colt by Curlin out of Seattle Society by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 1-3-2 (7)

Trainer: Neil Howard

In Training: Fair Grounds

5. Win With Pride: a dark bay colt by Distorted Humor out of Love and Pride by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 1-0-1 (3)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

In Training: Belmont Park

6. Desert Frontier: a dark bay colt by Empire Maker out of Reve de Fille by Storm Cat

Race Record: 0-0-0 (1)

Trainer: Arnaud Delacour

In Training: Gulfstream Park

7. Mr. Meister: a bay colt by Bodemeister out of A.P. Double Cat by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 1-0-1 (2)

Trainer: Bill Mott

In Training: Payson Park Training Center

8. Everybodyluvsrudy: a chestnut colt by Union Rags out of Philly’s Philly by A.P. Indy

Race Record: 1-3-0 (5)

Trainer: Rudy Rodriquez

In Training: Aqueduct

9. Clearly Super: a chestnut colt by Super Saver out of Pretty Clear by Mr. Prospector

Race Record: 0-0-0 (1)

Trainer: Kenny McPeek

In Training: Oaklawn

10. Heaven Is Waiting: a dark bay gelding by Creative Cause out of Gates of Eden by Kingmambo

Race Record: 1-0-0 (3)

Trainer: Chad Brown

In Training: Palm Meadows Training Center

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Also, there are some horses with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® that are still in training and should make their first start early in 2017. They have a lot of catching up to do but they have the breeding to have an impact on the Derby trail. Here’s a list of six that I’m following.

1. Glory or Nothing: a bay colt by Tapit out of Dress Rehearsal by Galileo (IRE)

In Training: Payson Park Training Center

2. American Icon: a bay colt by Bernardini out of Acoma by Empire Maker

In Training: Fair Grounds

3. Reach the World: a gray, roan colt by Tapit out of Reach The Stars (IRE) by Galileo (IRE)

In Training: Santa Anita

4. Indy Wars: a bay colt by Bernardini out of Goldena Podkove by War Pass

In Training: Goldmark

5. Tin Drum: a chestnut colt by Super Saver out of Danzig Point by Point Given

In Training: Belmont Park

6. Saved At Sea: a dark bay colt by Super Saver out of Stormy Sea by Storm Cat

In Training: Fair Grounds

         

It remains to be seen if any of the honorable mentions or horses that have yet to qualify for the top 20 can earn a spot in the Derby starting gate. However, they have the breeding to be a factor on the Derby trail and I’ll be watching their progress in 2017.