Friday, January 25, 2013

Holy Bull Stakes Racing Roundup



Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) winner and Eclipse Award Champion Two-Year-Old Colt Shanghai Bobby will make his first start Saturday as a 3-year-old and was tabbed as the prohibitive 4-5 morning line favorite in the 26th running of the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulstream Park.

Undefeated in five starts, Shanghai Bobby will put his record on the line attempting to earn more points and secure his spot in the starting gate of Kentucky Derby 139. Currently he has 20 points and is ranked second in the top twenty list of Derby qualifiers. The top twenty horses with the most points will qualify to enter the Derby.

Since this is the first time that Churchill Downs has used a point system to determine eligibility for the Derby, no one knows exactly how many points it will take for a horse to get into the starting gate. However, I recently read at the Downey Profile that a horse may be able to qualify with less than 40 points.

Whatever the final count, if Shanghai Bobby continues to improve he shouldn’t have a problem qualifying for the Derby and I look for him to be competitive in the Holy Bull. However, it remains to be seen if he has classic potential.

In my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook I noted that the distaff pedigree of Shanghai Bobby is not as strong as what I’d like to see in colt that may have classic potential and I thought that was evident in his narrow victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) to my long shot pick He’s Had Enough.

Orientate, the damsire of Shanghai Bobby, was a champion sprinter that won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) as well as the graded stakes Forego Handicap (G1), the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G2) and the Aristides Handicap (G3). Orientate was also able to stretch out his speed to win the 8½-furlong Indiana Derby. Carson City, the sire of the second dam Steel Band, also adds speed influence to the distaff pedigree.

Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of Shanghai Bobby, was a precocious colt and good middle-distance runner that was 4-2-0 in six starts as a two year old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes, Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.

As a 3-year-old, Harlan’s Holiday finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1). He followed up with a win in the Florida Derby (G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and went into the 2002 Kentucky Derby as the 6-1 favorite but finished seventh in a field of 18.

Regular jockey Rosie Napravnik has done a masterful job guiding Shanghai Bobby to victory in all five of his starts but their courage could be severely tested in the Holy Bull by Itsmyluckyday (6-1) who, in his 3-year-old debut, was an impressive 6¾-length winner in the 8-furlong Gulstream Park Derby at Gulfstream Park on January 13.

Itsmyluckyday earned an impressive 111 Brisnet Speed Figure for his romp in the Derby and the time of 1:34.39 is outstanding. Itsmyluckyday showed good speed running on the lead in that race and appeared to be full of energy at the finish. If he improves off of that performance, Itsmyluckyday should be competitive in the Holy Bull.

With three wins in seven starts as a 2-year-old, the form of Itsmyluckyday is similar to that of his sire Lawyer Ron who had three wins in 10 starts as a 2-year-old. As a 3-year-old, Lawyer Ron was a tough competitor and undefeated in four starts winning the Southwest Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a 12th-place finish in the 2006 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Doneraile Court, the damsire of Itsmyluckyday, compiled a 5-2-2 record in 12 route races and his best stakes performance as a 3-year-old was a second-place finish in 1999 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Another young colt that could, perhaps, give the 2-year-old champ Shanghai Bobby a run for his money is Bern Identity who is the 4-1 morning line second choice. In six starts, Bern Identity has never been out of the money. But, he’s yet to race as a 3-year-old and he comes into the Holy Bull off of a two-month layoff.

In his last race, Bern Identity was running in 5th-place going into the stretch of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) when he made a nice move to rally and close the gap to finish second to Goldencents who is currently ranked 1st in the Kentucky Derby top twenty list.

Bern Identity only lost by 1¾-lengths to Goldencents and he finished 5½-lenghts ahead of Itsmyluckyday who finished sixth in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). So, it will be interesting to see if Bern Identity can step up in his 3-year-old debut and run a big race like Itsmyluckyday ran in the Gulfstream Park Derby.

Bern Identity has already run the distance of the Holy Bull Stakes and a recent bullet work out at Palm Meadows Training Center could have him ready to run a good race.

Two long shots I like in the Holy Bull are Tulira Castle (30-1) and Dewey Square (12-1).

At 30-1 morning line odds, Tulira Castle is under-the-radar and if he repeats the performance of his last race – running a mile at Gulfstream Park in a time of 1:36.35 – he has the breeding to competitive and could, perhaps, upset the 2-year-old champ at a good price.

Tulira Castle is a descendant of the Cherokee Run sire line and in my July 3 blog of 2009 I noted the importance of keeping track of colts from that line when they stretch out to route racing.

Over the years, the Cherokee Run sire line has produced a lot of good middle- distance runners such as War Pass – the sire of Tulira Castle – Yonaguska, Kafwain, Sir Cherokee, During, Chelokee, Zanjero, Recapturetheglory, Musket Man and The Pamplemousse.

As a 2-year-old, War Pass won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) en route to being crowned the 2007 Eclipse Champion Two-Year-old Colt. As a 3-year-old, War Pass finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) but an injury kept him from competing in the Kentucky Derby.

General Asssmbly, the damsire of Tulira Castle, was a competitive 2-year-old colt that won the Hopeful Stakes (G1), Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Champagne Stakes (G1). As a 3-year-old, General Assembly won the Gotham Stakes (G2) and finished second in the 1979 Kentucky Derby (G1).

In three starts, Dewey Square has never finished out of the money. He’s yet to race as a 3-year-old and comes into the Holy Bull off of a two-month layoff. Currently, Dewey Square is ranked 32nd on the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby leaderboard and a win in the Holy Bull would put him in the top twenty.

In his last race, Dewey Square finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) to the winner Uncaptured (ranked 6th) and runner up Frac Daddy (ranked 23rd).

A bullet work out at Gulfstream Park on January 20 could have Dewey Square ready to run a good race and I’ll be watching to see how he looks in the post parade.



*****



Shanghai Bobby is currently ranked second and Bern Identity is ranked 13th in the Kentucky Derby top twenty list. A win by any of the other eight colts running in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) would put them in the top twenty. Here’s a look at the current top twenty list:





Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated January 21, 2013)





Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer

1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill

2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher

5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher

6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse

7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert

8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson

9 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas

10 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez

11 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert

12 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll

13 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen

14 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill

15 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher

16 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse

17 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill

18 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham

19 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer

20 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni





After the running of the Holy Bull, I’ll post an updated top twenty list at the end of this blog.




Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated January 27, 2013)


Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer
1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher
2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr.
6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
8 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
9 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
10 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas
11 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
12 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
13 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
14 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
15 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
16= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
17 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
18 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
19 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham
20 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer


Holy Bull Stakes, Gulstream Park, January 26, 2013
1. Itsmyluckyday, 10
2. Shanghai Bobby, 4
3. Clearly Now, 2
4. Joshua’s Comprise, 1


Monday, January 21, 2013

Smarty Jones Stakes Racing Roundup



Trainer Doug O’Neil’s California shipper Avare heads a field of nine 3-year-old Thoroughbreds today as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the 6th running of the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

The Smarty Jones Stakes is one mile long and Avare has already shown good speed at that distance. In his second start, Avare broke his maiden in October racing a mile on the turf at Santa Anita Park and his time of 1:36.16 is in the neighborhood of what I like a young colt to run. Avare came back in December to win the Eddie Logan Stakes by 4¼-lengths in a time of 1:36.39.

If Avare repeats the form of those previous two races he should be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

As a 2-year-old, Avare’s sire Johannesburg was a precocious sprinter in Europe that was undefeated in six starts, including three Group One victories, and he was the recipient of the Cartier Award for European Champion Two-Year-Old Colt.

Toward the end of the racing season, Johannesburg was brought to America and he successfully carried his speed to 8½-furlongs to win the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).

Johannesburg made one start in April as a 3-year-old winning the 7-furlong Gladness Stakes (Group 3) at the Curragh racetrack en route to an 8th-place finish in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.

Robellino, the damsire of Avare, made 14 starts in Europe compiled a 5-5-0 record on the turf. His best stakes wins were in the 8-furlong Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) and the 5-furlong Seaton Delaval Stakes (Group 3).

I look for Avare to be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

In five starts, Brown Almighty (4-1) has only been out of the money once and since his maiden-debut win in July his other four races have been stakes races.

In September, Brown Almighty finished a neck behind Java’s War in the Sunday Silence Stakes in a time of 1:36.73. His final time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Santa Anita Park in November was close to the 1:36 mark.

Big Brown, the sire of Brown Almighty, was a lightly-race, precocious colt that won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and was favored to win the Belmont Stakes (G1) but was pulled up by jockey Kent Desormeaux before the finish.

Brown Almighty’s damsire, Gone For Real, raced mostly on the turf compiling a 5-3-1 record in 11 starts. His best win came in the Royal Palm Handicap (G3) and he placed in several stakes as well.

All of Brown Almighty’s races have been on the turf. If he can transfer that form to the dirt and run close to the 1:36 mark as he has in previous races he should be competitive in today’s race.

Always in a Tiz (9-2) is stepping up in class and he’s never ran in a route race but he’s shouldn’t have a problem stretching out to 8-furlongs.

Tiznow, the sire of Always in a Tiz, was an outstanding runner who compiled an 8-4-2 record in 14 dirt route races and as a 3-year-old he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes (G1), Super Derby (G1), Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and the Affirmed Handicap (G3).

Elusive Quality, the damsire of Always in a Tiz, competed mostly in sprint races compiling a 5-2-2 record in 12 starts including a win in the Jaipur Handicap (G3) and Poker Stakes (G3). He also was equally talented in route racing compiling a 2-1-0 record in four starts.

Elusive Quality is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Smarty Jones and stakes champions Raven’s Pass, Quality Road and Maryfield.

In his maiden debut win, Always in a Tiz defeated the third-place finisher Revolutionary who went on to finally break his maiden with an impressive 8½-length romp and he’s one of the horses I wrote about in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook. In his second race, Always in a Tiz finished second to the undefeated Vyjack who recently won the Jerome Stakes (G2).

If he continues to move forward, Always in a Tiz should be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

A long shot I like in today’s race is Best of Birdstone (20-1). All three of his previous races were stakes and he has the breeding to be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

His tail-male sire line is especially impressive with the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Birdstone, Grindstone and Unbridled. Storm and a Half, the damsire of Best of Birdstone, was unraced but his second damsire is the Sire of Sires Storm Cat who has produced numerous stakes winners.

In his last race, Best of Birdstone lost to Texas Bling and Will Take Charge who are also entered in today’s race. So, I’ll be looking those three over very closely and if Best of Birdstone looks good in the post parade he may be worthy of a wager.

A nice work out at Oaklawn Park on January 8 could have him ready to run a good race.





*****



The Smarty Jones Stakes is not a graded stakes and this is the first year that any horses in this race will earn any points under the new Churchill Downs grading system to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Under the old system, the horses with the most graded stakes earnings qualified to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The winner of today’s race will receive 10 points while second-place will yield 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.

A win by any of the horses running in the Smarty Jones Stakes would put them in the top twenty. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Kentucky Derby qualifiers:





Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated January 19, 2013)





Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer

1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill

2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher

5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher

6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse

7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert

8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson

9 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez

10 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert

11 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll

12 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen

13 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill

14 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher

15 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse

16 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill

17 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer

18 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni

19 = Normandy Invasion, 4, Chad Brown

20 = Golden Soul, 4, Dallas Stewart



An updated leaderboard will be posted at the end of today’s race.




Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated January 21, 2013)


Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer
1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher
3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
9 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas
10 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
11 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
12 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
13 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
14 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
15 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
16 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
17 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
18 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham
19 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
20 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni

The first two finishers in the Smarty Jones stakes, both previously unranked, are now in the top twenty list of Derby qualifiers. Will Take Charge earned 10 points for his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes and is now ranked 9th. Texas Bling earned 4 points and is now ranked 18th.  

Smarty Jones Stakes, Oaklawn Park, January 21, 2013
1. Will Take Charge, 10
2. Texas Bling, 4
3. Always in a Tiz, 2
4. Stormy Holiday, 1