Saturday, February 27, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup - 2/27

Trainer Michael Machowsky already has a nice Kentucky Derby prospect in undefeated Caracortado and he’s hoping to add another one to his Derby roster when he sends the 5-2 morning line favorite Nextdoorneighbor to the starting gate of the $150,000 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

After two previous attempts, Nextdoorneighbor broke his maiden last month and he will be making his stakes debut in the Sham. Nextdoorneighbor has been working out good with stablemate Caracortado and a bullet work February 15 suggests that he could be ready to run a good race. But, I’m not so sure he is as good as Caracortado, who I like a lot, and I believe there are others in here that could pull off the upset.

Lightly-raced Kettle River (6-1) looks like he could be ready to run a real good race. In his maiden debut last August, Kettle River finished a poor sixth, beaten by 9 ½ - lengths in a 6-furlong sprint at Saratoga. Trainer Eoin Harty gave Kettle River a three month break and brought him back in 8.5-furlong race on the turf which he won by 1 ¼ - lengths.

Last month, Kettle River won another 8.5-furlong race at Santa Anita and earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. His speed figures have improved with every race and I believe that he will be very competitive in this race.

At 10-1 morning line odds, Outlaw Man looks like an interesting long shot. His last three races were on the turf and trainer Ken McPeak drops him back in distance for today’s race. Outlaw Man broke his maiden last time out and he has finished in the money in his last two races. I look for him to be competitive.

In his maiden debut last September, Setsuko (3-1) finished fourth in a 5 ½ - furlong sprint at Del Mar. Since then, Setsuko has run in five route races, finishing in the money in every outing. His speed figures are consistently in the 80’s and on par with the other runners in this race. I look for him to be competitive and would not be surprised if he won.

Borderland Derby

The $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park is not a graded-stakes race and does not count in earnings for the Kentucky Derby. However, it is a scoring race in the Road ToThe Roses contest.

Tango Tango, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the 9-5 morning line favorite. But, I like the second-choice Storming Saint (5-2) the best.

Storming Saint, powering home in a 13-length romp, broke his maiden last November running in a mile route race at Zia Park. He came back in December and finished third in a 6-furlong stakes race at Sunland Park. Since then, he has been working out good and his bullet work February 20 indicates he could be ready for another good race.

Guiltbyassociation (10-1) and Raise The Bridle (25-1) look like a couple of interesting long shot possibilities.

Guiltbyassociation, like last year’s Borderland Derby runnerup Mine That Bird, was sired by Birdstone. Guiltbyassociation had previously raced on the turf in California. But, earlier this month, it looks like Guiltbyassociation found the Sunland Park dirt surface more appealing as he finally broke his maiden by a nose in a 6-furlong sprint. Guiltbyassociation earned and 84 speed figure for that effort and he may be ready to run another good race.

Raise The Bridle has only one race to his credit and he lost that by a nose to Guiltbyassociation. It looks like Raise The Bridle could, perhaps, be in over his head, but I like his odds and he has a nice pedigree. His sire, Spanish Steps, is a full-brother to Unbridled’s Song. On the female line, Raise The Bridle gets stamina influence from Gulch, Wavering Monarch and Ribot.

At 25-1 odds, I believe he is worth a small wager.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup - 2/20

Trainer Nick Zito is no stranger to the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He won it in 2005 with High Fly and Cool Coal Man won in 2008. Zito has high hopes today to win it a third time when he sends 5-2 morning line favorite Jackson Bend and Ice Box (10-1) to the starting gate of the $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

Jackson Bend failed as the favorite last time out in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), beaten three-quarters of a length by Winslow Homer and I believe that he will not fair any better today. Although I have to admit that Jackson Bend did better in the Holy Bull than I thought he would.

If the odds on Ice Box stay at 10-1 or go higher, I believe that he may be a good long shot bet. After three previous attempts, Ice Box finally broke his maiden at the Meadowlands last October and earned an 80 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. Also in that race was fourth-place finisher Worth A Buck who three races later finished second to Laus Deo in the Count Fleet Stakes.

After a three-month break, Ice Box returned to racing in January and earned a 94 speed figure winning a 9-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream. Ice Box has the pedigree to get the distance and his past performances have improved in the last two races. Only time will tell if Ice Box has improved enough to be competive in stakes competition. His bullet work February 12 indicates that he may be ready for a good effort.

If you throw out the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Eskendereya (5-1) has a pretty good racing record (4-2-1-0) that includes a 7 ¼ - length romp in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont last October. All four of Eskendereya’s races have been route races and in his last race, a one-mile allowance at Gulfstream, he earned a 99 speed figure for that effort.

Eskendereya has the pedigree to get the distance and I have been waiting for him to stretch out to 9-furlongs. Eskendereya has been working out good at the Palm Meadows Training Center and I look for him to be competitive.

Undefeated in three starts, Buddy’s Saint (3-1) makes his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth coming off graded-stakes wins last year in the Nashua (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). Although he has yet to race this year, Buddy’s Saint recorded a bullet work out February 7 and should be ready to put in a good effort for trainer Bruce Levine.

At 30-1 morning line odds, Prince Will I Am looks like an interesting long shot. Prince Will I Am comes in to the race with a second-place finish to Drosselmeyer in a 9-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream. Drosselmeyer earned a 103 speed figure for that effort and his bullet work January 24 indicates that he could be ready for another good effort.

Risen Star Stakes

Trainer Tom Amoss sends 3-1 morning line favorite Ron The Greek to the starting gate of the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds.

In a move reminiscent of Mine That Bird in last year's Kentucky Derby, Ron The Greek came from 15-lengths back at the second call to pull off the upset win the Lecomte Stakes (G3) last month, winning by 1 ½ -lengths over favored second-place finisher Maximus Ruler.

Ron The Greek earned a 98 speed figure for that effort and improved his recond to three wins and a fourth-place finish in four starts. Ron The Greek fired a bullet work February 10 and I look for him to put in another good effort in the Southwest.

Trainer Bill Mott ships in Drosselmeyer (4-1) from Gulfstream for a chance to win some graded-stakes money. Coming off a two-month layoff, Drosselmeyer won his 3-year-old debut last month, winninga 9-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream by 1 ¾ - lengths over Prince Will I Am who is running in the Fountain of Youth. Drosselmeyer earned a 105 speed figure for that effort and improved his record to 2-2-1 in five starts. I like him a lot in this race.

After three attempts, Tempted To Tapit (8-1) finally broke his maiden with an impressive 11 ½ -length win at Aqueduct last month, earning a 103 speed figure. Despite the step up to stakes competition, I don’t believe that will be too much of a problem for Tempted To Tapit and he should be able to handle the increased distance of 8.5-furlongs.

In four starts, Stay Put (8-1) has never been out of the money and he has improved his speed figures with every race. Stay Put has been working out good and he has previously defeated four of the horses that are entered in today’s race. I can’t see Stay Put winning but I can see using him in the exotics.

Southwest Stakes

The potential for a clash between two Hall of Fame trainers looms large at Oaklawn Park when trainer Bob Baffert sends the 7-2 morning line second-choice Conveyance to the starting gate of the $250,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) where they will square off with his old rival D. Wayne Lukas and the 5-1 morning line third-choice Dublin.

Baffert has several potential Kentucky Derby candidates this year and if Conveyance, undefeated in thee starts, wins the the Southwest, he will join Baffert’s A-Team along with Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male Lookin At Lucky.

Dublin showed real promise for Lukas early in his two-year-old season winning the the Grade-One Hopeful Stakes last September at Saratoga. But later in the year, Dublin finished off the board in the Champagne (G1) and Iroquois (G3) Stakes.

The potential cause for Dublin’s poor performance was an entrapped epiglottis which can adversely affect the horse during a race. The epiglottis was fixed and, since then, Dublin has been firing bullets in work outs over the Oaklawn track. If Dublin has returned to his previous 2-year-old winning form, he should be tough in the Southwest.

After an eight-month layoff, Mission Impazible (15-1) resumed racing January 9 in a 6-furlong sprint in the slop at Gulfstream Park, narrowly losing by a head to Three Day Rush who finished third in the Whirlway Stakes February 6 at Aqueduct. Mission Impazible earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort and he could improve in his second start since the layoff.

Mission Impazible has never run in a route race but his pedigree suggests that the distance should not be a problem and I look for him to be competitive.

With two wins and a second-place finish in three starts, Pleasant Storm (8-1) has improved his performance with every race. In the Smarty Jones Stakes, Pleasant Storm finished a closing second to Dryfly, the 3-1 favorite in the Southwest, and his 92 speed figure for the effort is his best yet.

Prior to the Smarty Jones, Pleasant Storm fired a bullet work and his recent bullet work February 7 indicates that he could be ready for another good effort.

Hutcheson Stakes

Trainer Rick Dutrow sends the 2-1 morning line favorite D’Funnybone to the starting gate of the 7-furlong $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G3) for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park. D’Funnybone has not raced since last November when he finished dead-last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Since then, D’Funnybone has been working out good and drops back in distance that should be more to his liking.

The horse that interests me the most in this race is A Little Warm (3-1) who is trained by Dutrow’s older brother, Tony. After three previous attempts to break his maiden, A Little Warm powered home to a 10 ¾ - length victory in a 6-furlong sprint at Philadelphia Park last November. In January, A Little Warm earned a 106 speed figure enroute to a 1 ½ - length win in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream.

A Little Warm has the fastest times of all the horses entered in the Hutcheson and the stretch out to 7-furlongs should not be a problem. A Little Warm posted a bullet work out February 14 and he should be ready for another good race.

In three starts, Wildcat Frankie (4-1) has never been out of the money and I look for him to repeat in the Hutcheson. Wildcat Frankie is a fast horse, but he came up short in the Spectacular Bid, losing by 1 ¼ - lengths to A Little Warm.

At 12-1 morning line odds, City Trooper is an interesting long shot. He’s cutting back in distance and picks up jockey Garrett Gomez for trainer George Weaver. Last November, City Trooper won a 7-furlong sprint at Aqueduct by 6 ½ - lengths and if he can run back to that form, he can be competitive in this race.

El Camino Real Derby

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won a lot of races, but he will be looking for his first win in the 9-furlong $150,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Park when he sends 2-1 morning line favorite Connemara to the starting gate.

Connemara failed as the favorite in last month’s California Derby, beaten three-quarters of a length by Ranger Heartley (5-2) who is also entered in the El Camino Real Derby. California Derby third-place finisher Thomas Baines returns for today’s race as the 7-2 morning line third choice. It’s a good possibility that today’s race could end up as a repeat of the California Derby.

Of the new players, Haimish Hy at 15-1 morning line odds and Posse Power (12-1) looks like a couple of interesting long shots and they could, perhaps, be a factor in the race.

Since moving to the barn of Steve Sherman, Haimish Hy has won three of his last four races improving his record to 3-0-1 in six starts. He has the pedigree to handle the distance and could be tough in this spot.

In five starts, Posse Power has never been out of the money and he has been running in mostly sprint races. However, Posse Power did successfully stretch out to an 8.5-furlong race in his last outing which he won by a head. His sire, Posse, was a successful sprinter, but Posse Power receives some stamina influences from his dam Stellerina and damsire, Pleasant Colony.

A bullet work out February 10 could indicate that Posse Power is ready to run a good race.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup

The potential for a clash between two Hall of Fame trainers looms large at Oaklawn Park today when trainer Bob Baffert sends the 5-2 morning line favorite Conveyance to the starting gate of the $250,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) where they will square off with his old rival D. Wayne Lukas and the 9-2 morning line third-choice Dublin.

Baffert has several potential Kentucky Derby candidates this year and if Conveyance, undefeated in thee starts, wins the the Southwest, he will join Baffert’s A-Team along with Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male Lookin At Lucky.

Dublin showed real promise for Lukas early in his two-year-old season winning the the Grade-One Hopeful Stakes last September at Saratoga. But later in the year, Dublin finished off the board in the Champagne (G1) and Iroquois (G3) Stakes.

The potential cause for Dublin’s poor performance was an entrapped epiglottis which can adversely affect the horse during a race. The epiglottis was fixed and, since then, Dublin has been firing bullet work outs over the Oaklawn track. If Dublin has returned to his previous 2-year-old winning form, he should be tough in the Southwest.

After an eight-month layoff, Mission Impazible resumed racing January 9 in a 6-furlong sprint in the slop at Gulfstream Park, narrowly losing by a head to Three Day Rush who finished third in the Whirlway Stakes February 6 at Aqueduct. Mission Impazible earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort and he could improve in his second start since the layoff.

Mission Impazible has never run in a route race but his pedigree suggests that the distance should not be a problem and I look for him to be competitive.

With two wins and a second-place finish in three starts, Pleasant Storm has improved his performance with every race. In the Smarty Jones Stakes, Pleasant Storm finished a closing second to Dryfly (3-1), who is also entered in the Southwest, and his 92 speed figure for the effort is his best yet.

Prior to the Smarty Jones, Pleasant Storm fired a bullet work and his recent bullet work February 7 indicates that he could be ready for another good effort.

San Vicente Stakes

Sidney’s Candy heads a field of seven 3-year-olds entered in the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Trained by John Sadler, Sidney’s Candy is the 2-1 morning line favorite but, in my opinion, the race appears to be wide open and there are others that I like better in this race.

Quiet Invader (3-1) drops back in distance from a route to a sprint for trainer Bob Baffert and I believe that should be more to his liking. In his last outing, an 8 ½ - furlong race at Santa Anita, Quiet Invader led the race until the stretch and faded to fourth at the finish.

Last September, Raging Wit (6-1) broke his maiden by 2 ¼ -lengths in a 6-furlong sprint at Turfway Park. Since then, Raging Wit finished off the board in his last three starts – all of them route races – and despite his seventh-place finish in the Dania Beach Stakes last month, Raging Wit lost by only 3 ½ -lengths and his 92 speed figure for that effort was his best yet. The drop back to a sprint today and the recent bullet work February 8 indicates that he could be competitive.

At 20-1 morning line odds, Gilligan looks like an interesting long shot. With 13 starts to his credit, Gilligan has the most experience of all the horses entered in the San Vicente and he drops back in distance today from a route to a 7-furlong sprint race for trainer Melvin Stute.

In his last four starts, all of them route races, Gilligan steadily improved his performance and speed figures and finished in the money in all of those races. I would not be surprised to see him repeat that performance in the San Vicente.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup

Uptowncharlybrown will get his first serious class test today when he faces off with 8-5 morning line favorite Rule in the $225,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.

So far Uptowncharlybrown, the 2-1 morning line second-choice, has done everything right in his previous two starts at Tampa Bay.

In December, Uptowncharlybrown broke his maiden in a 6 ½ -furlong spint, winning by an impressive nine lengths and earning a 98 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. Last month, Uptowncharlybrown powered home to win the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes by another impressive six-length margin.

In the negative column, Uptowncharlybrown has yet to run in a route race and he has the least experience of the seven horses entered in the race. I don’t know if he can win this race but I expect him to be competitive.

Rule’s win in the Delta Jackpot (G3) has given him enough graded stakes earnings to run in the Kentucky Derby and trainer Todd Pletcher said that he looking for Rule to put in a good effort.

"What we're looking for here is a good comeback without him overdoing it while gradually building him up for a peak performance, hopefully, on Derby Day," said Pletcher in a Mike Welsch Daily Racing Form news story.

In his last three starts, Rule won going gate-to-wire, but I would not be surprised to see jockey Johnny Velazquez place Rule in the second or third spot to see if he can win from off the pace. In five starts, Rule has never been out of the money and I look for him to repeat that performance here today.

Schoolyard Dreams (6-1) comes into the race with two wins and a third-place finish in three starts for trainer Derek Ryan. Schoolyard Dreams speed figures have improved with each race and he adds blinkers for today’s contest. Schoolyard Dreams has been working out good and his bullet work on February 7 suggests that he should be ready to put in a good effort.

Robert B. Lewis

Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert has the opportunity today to win his fourth Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) and tie the record currently held by Charles Whittingham and Ron McAnally. Baffert’s chances look pretty good too as he sends 6-5 morning line favorite Tiz Chrome to the starting gate of the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

Tiz Chrome has yet to run two turns and makes his graded-stakes debut. But he’s bred to go the distance and if he lives up to his breeding, I believe that Tiz Chrome is the most likely winner. Undefeated in two starts, Tiz Chrome comes into the race with 3 ¼ -length maiden win in a 6-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs last November. In December, Tiz Chrome powered home to a 4-length victory in the 6 ½ -furlong Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Caracortado (4-1) looks like an interesting long shot. Undefeated in four starts, Caracortado is also making his graded-stakes debut and comes into the race with a 1 ¾ -length win last December in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes at Santa Anita.

American Lion (9-5) has not raced in two months and will be stretching out in his first route race. He comes into the Lewis with a half-length win last November in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) at Hollywood Park. Last October, American Lion broke his maiden in a 7-furlong sprint at Keeneland Park by an impressive 6 ¾ -lengths.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup

Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert has the opportunity today to win his fourth Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) and tie the record currently held by Charles Whittingham and Ron McAnally. Baffert’s chances look pretty good too as he sends 2-1 morning line favorite Tiz Chrome and Macias (8-1) to the starting gate of the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

Tiz Chrome has yet to run two turns and will be making his graded-stakes debut. But he’s bred to go the distance and if he lives up to his breeding, I believe that Tiz Chrome is the most likely winner. Undefeated in two starts, Tiz Chrome comes into the race with 3 ¼ -length maiden win in a 6-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs last November. In December, Tiz Chrome powered home to a 4-length victory in the 6 ½ -furlong Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park.

Macias held on to win the Eddie Logan Stakes by three-quarters of a length last December and I look for him to round out the bottom of the exotics.

Caracortado (6-1) looks like an interesting long shot. Undefeated in four starts, Caracortado is also making his graded-stakes debut and comes into the race with a 1 ¾ -length win last December in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes at Santa Anita. If he comes from off the pace like he did in his last race, Caracortado should be competitive.

American Lion (5-2) has not raced in two months and will be stretching out in his first route race. He comes into the Lewis with a half-length win last November in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) at Hollywood Park. Last October, American Lion broke his maiden in a 7-furlong sprint at Keeneland Park by an impressive 6 ¾ -lengths.

Whirlaway Stakes

Trained by Gary Contessa, Eightyfiveinafifty is the 2-5 morning line favorite and heads a field of six 3-year-olds entered today in the $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct. In January, Eightyfiveinafifty broke his maiden in a 6-furlong sprint at Aqueduct winning by an impressive 17 ¼ -lengths and earning a 109 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. Despite that impressive win, I believe this is a wide-open race and there others here I like better.

If Peppi Knows stays at or near 15-1 that would be great because I believe that he has a good chance to win or definitely be in the money. In his five previous starts, Peppi Knows has never been out of the money and he comes into the Whirlaway with three wins, a first and a second-place finish. In November, Peppi Knows finished second in the Remsen Stakes (G2) to Buddy’s Saint, beaten by 4 ¾ -lengths. Since then, Peppi Knows has been working out good and should be competitive in this race.

Afleet Again at 30-1 morning line odds looks interesting and could, perhaps, pull off the upset. If you throw out Afleet Again’s fifth-place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes, his progression since last October has been steadily improving and he’s never been out of the money in any of those races. His last race January 17 was his best by far, earning a 92 speed figure for that effort and the turnaround time fits the race pattern. He could be ready for another good effort.

Papa’s Nice Cat (15-1) also shows some nice progression. Hia speed figures have improved with each race and his sharp work out January 23 could indicate that he is ready for a good effort.