©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to California
Saturday where seven young Thoroughbreds have been entered in what appears to
be a wide-open edition of the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate
Fields. Sheer Flattery has been tabbed the 7-5
morning line favorite in the first test this year for three year olds running
in a nine furlong Derby points race.
Most
of the horses in this race have a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score and those types of horses
can often be inconsistent in their performance in the racetrack.
Of
the seven, Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie have the top profile scores with
a C profile grade rating. While other horses like Colonel Samsen (10-1) and More Power to Him (6-1) could potentially move
up in ranking because their Behavior Index makes them competitive.
Favored
Sheer Flattery comes into this race for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with a 1-1-1
record in five starts including a third-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis
Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
SHEER FLATTERY
four wide into the first turn, angled in and chased a bit off the rail then
inside, moved up inside leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch and
just missed the place.
Sheer
Flattery was the favorite in this race but he was no competition for Royal
Mo who won by
an easy 3¾ lengths.
Flatter, the sire of Sheer Flattery, was
a decent middle-distance horse who competed, mostly, in maiden and allowance
races and in his only stakes start he finished third in the 8½-furlong
Washington Park Handicap (G2). But in six starts, Flatter compiled a 4-0-1
record and was a winner from 7½-furlongs to 9-furlongs.
Despite
his favoritism, there are other horses in this race that could give Sheer
Flattery a run for his money. With a C profile rating, Sheer Flattery will need
to improve his game if he’s going to earn graded stakes honors and be
competitive on the Derby trail.
Ann Arbor Eddie (2-1) comes into the El Camino with a 3-0-1
record in four starts for trainer Doug O’Neil including wins in the King Glorious Stakes and the California Cup Derby.
Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:
ANN ARBOR EDDIE stalked
between rivals then then bid between foes five eighths out, stalked again
between horses on the backstretch and into the second turn, continued just off
the rail leaving that turn, came out in the stretch and rallied under urging to
get up in the last stride.
Ann
Arbor Eddie has finished in the money in all of his previous starts and he has
room to improve in his second start of the season.
Square
Eddie, the
sire of Ann Arbor Eddie, initially raced in England but was trained by Doug
O’Neill when he made his second start in America. He showed promise as a two
year old, compiling a 2-2-1 record in six starts, including a win in the Lane’s
End Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a second-place finish in the Bessemer Trust
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
As
a three year old, Square Eddie finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2)
and third in the Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G3) before he was taken off the
Derby trail with a shin injury.
Ann
Arbor Eddie appears to be one of the most consistent colts in this race. Jockey
Mario Gutierrez has ridden Ann Arbor Eddie in all of his previous starts and I
look for the pair to be competitive.
Colonel
Samsen comes into this race with a 2-1-2 record in eight starts for trainer
Eoin Harty. To date, his best performance in stakes competition was in the one
mile Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields where he
was a 1¾ lengths victor over third-place finisher More Power to Him. In his
last race Colonel Samsen finished third in the California Derby. Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
COLONEL SAMSEN tracked the pace to the second turn, was roused
three then four wide to the stretch, got outkicked to mid-stretch then finished
evenly.
It
seemed to me that Colonel Samsen lost his focus in the stretch and that allowed
second-place finisher More Power to Him to out run him to the finish.
Tiznow, the sire of Colonel Samsen,
was a multiple graded-stakes winner and an outstanding router who won
10-furlong Super Derby (G1) by six lengths and the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) by
five lengths.
The
most notable 10-furlong wins of Tiznow came in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)
where he defeated the European champion Giant’s Causeway by a neck. In 2001, Tiznow defended his title of
champion in Breeders’ Cup Classic when he defeated the European invader and
formidable winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Sakhee, by a nose.
Colonel
Samsen has been inconsistent on the trail but he has room to improve in his
third start of the season. If he runs like he did in the Gold Rush, he could be
competitive.
More
Power to Him comes into this race with a 2-1-1 record in six starts for trainer
Faith Taylor including a second-place finish in the California Derby. Here’s
the video and chart
call of that race:
MORE POWER TO HIM
was allowed to settle to the second turn, rallied four wide then swung out five
wide into the stretch, rallied to the lead in mid-stretch, battled on late, but
could not stall the winner.
More
Power to Him finished with good energy and it appears that he should be able to
handle the stretch out to nine furlongs.
Jockey
Alejandro Gomez retains the mount on More Power to Him and they have finished
in the money in their last four races. It remains to be seen if More Power to
Him has the talent to secure the win but I look for him to be competitive.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the El Camino
Real Derby Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will
receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the
fourth-place finisher will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top
twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Classic
Empire, 32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
2. El Areeb, 20,
Cathal Lynch, $300,000
3. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
4. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $260,000
5. Gunnevera, 14,
Antonio Sano, $807,200
6. Practical
Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000
7. Uncontested,
11, Wayne Catalano, $99,300
8. Lookin At Lee,
10, Steve Asmussen, $275,600
9. Irish War Cry,
10, Graham Motion, $272,660
10. Mastery, 10,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
11. Mo Town, 10,
Tony Dutrow, $180,000
12. Guest Suite,
10, Neil Howard, $128,040
13. Royal Mo, 10,
John Sherriffs, $90,000
14. Irap, 8, Doug
O’Neill, $90,000
15. Wild Shot, 7,
Rusty Arnold, II, $97,200
16. True Timber,
6, Kiaran McLaughlin, $65,000
17. No Dozing, 5,
Arnaud Delacour, $89,000
18. Bonus Points,
5, Todd Pletcher, $52,500
19. Klimt, 4, Art
Sherman, $380,000
20. Hot Sean, 4,
Bob Baffert, $180,000
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
2.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
3.
Blane Eclat, 8, Ryo Takei, $22,340
4.
Lavapies (JPN), 4, Ryuji Okub, $52,163
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