Friday, March 29, 2019

Florida Derby Stakes Racing Roundup




This weekend, we’ll log a lot of miles on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. On Saturday, the road takes us first to Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, the “City of Gold” in the United Arab Emirates and finally we’ll travel to Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
At Gulfstream Park, HIDDEN SCROLL has been tabbed as the 5-2 morning line favorite in 67th running of the $1 million, Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). NBC television will broadcast the race live beginning at 6 p.m. ET. Post time is 6:30 ET.
Hidden Scroll comes into this race with a win and a loss in two starts including a fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

HIDDEN SCROLL got bumped off stride and lost couple steps at the start, vied for the lead with GLADIATOR KING in first turn, continued to set pressured pace on top then cleared over rival, continued to hold off challengers in final turn, appeared all out when CODE OF HONOR moved up to challenge upper stretch but continued to fight back gamely then had nothing left in late reserve.

Hidden Scroll has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which had him ranked fifth in this race and there were several other ranked above him with an A+ profile.
Hard Spun, the sire of Hidden Scroll, was undefeated in three starts as a two-year-old, including wins in the Port Penn Stakes and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. As a three-year-old on the Derby trail, Hard spun was 2-0-0 in three starts including wins in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Lane’s End Stakes (G2).
Hard Spun went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and rounded out his classic campaign with a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
As a stallion, Hard Spun’s best runner on the Kentucky Derby trail was Wicked Strong who finished fourth in the 2014 Derby. His other top runners include: Le Romain, Hard Aces, Hard Not to Like, Someries, Gatting, King’s Spun, Promising Run, Questing and Hardest Core.
Hidden Scroll is a talented colt, but he will need to improve his game if he is going to earn graded stakes honors.
A long shot I like is CURRENT (15-1) who comes into this race with a 2-0-2 record in six starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. In his last race, he finished third in the Dania Beach Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

CURRENT broke slowly and shifted in brushing SHOOTIN THE BREEZE in the hind end, advance three to four wide through the middle stages, had a clear shot turning for home, but lacked a solid closing kick.

Current raced in the middle of the herd for most to the race and closed the gap in the final stages to finish a respectable third in his first start of the season.
 Curlin, the sire of Current, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
In six crops as a stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator. In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Good Magic (second, 2018 Kentucky Derby), Tenfold (third, 2018 Preakness), Ride On Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice (third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).

Current was a yearling (Hip 1149) we profiled at the 2017 Keeneland September sale and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he’s the best-bred colt in his herd. He has the breeding to be competitive and time will tell if he can step up to win his first graded stakes race on the dirt.
Another long shot I like is HARVEY WALLBANGER (15-1). He’s never finished worse than second in five starts and comes into this race off a win in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

HARVEY WALLLBANGER settled nicely out of the gate and secured inside position on the first turn, continued unhurried saving ground through the backstretch, patiently ridden then let out notch at three eighths pole, gained closer contention then cut the corner entering top stretch, given cue under right handed drive, kicked in with strong response, powered forward to the lead and held firm.

Harvey Wallbanger tracked the leaders to the far turn while steadily gaining ground, powered through on the rail and took the lead in the stretch to prevail by one length at the wire.
Congrats, a full brother to Flatter and the sire of Harvey Wallbanger, did his best running at 8½ furlongs and farther. His most notable stakes wins were the 7½ furlong Ack Ack Handicap, the Alysheba Stakes and San Pasqual Handicap (G2), both at the 8½ furlongs, and he won 9 furlong San Antonio Handicap (G2). In addition, Congrats finished second in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), both at 10 furlongs.
As a stallion, Congrat’s best runners include Turbulent Descent, Jupiter Gold (AUS), Haveyougoneaway, Polar River, Pat On the Back, I’m Steppin’ It Up, Toasting, Bravo Watchman (AUS) and Top Decile to name a few.

Harvey Wallbanger has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he was a yearling (Hip 176) we profiled at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Sale.

A recent bullet workout could have Harvey Wallbanger ready to run another good race. He was my upset pick in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and he has the breeding to upset in the Florida Derby (G1).

CODE OF HONOR (3-1) comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in 4 starts for trainer “Shug” McGaughey including a win last out in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

CODE OF HONOR gained contending position out of the gate, settled nicely being rated path off the inside, commenced steady advance entering far turn, moved up closer alongside at quarter pole then quickly angled out turning for home, given cue and roused forward to challenge HIDDEN SCROLL, vied for the lead then took control and kept clear.

Code of Honor made a big step forward in his second start of the season to prevail by three quarters of a length and win his first graded stakes race.
Noble Mission, the sire of Code of Honor, is a full brother to Classic Champion Thoroughbred Frankel and multiple Group Stakes winner that compiled a 9-6-2 record in 21 starts with $2,202,887 in career earnings.
Noble Mission finished second in his only start as a two year old racing in the United Kingdom.
As a three-year-old, Noble Mission was 3-3-0 in seven starts with wins in the maiden weight for age race, Qatar Racing Newmarket Stakes and Bet365 Gordon Stakes (Group 3). He finished second in the Popetelecom.com.co.uk Fairway Stakes, King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) and the Worthingtons Champion Shield Navigation Brewery St. Simon Stakes (Group 3).
At the age of four, Noble Mission was 1-0-2 in six starts with a win in the Tapster Stakes. He finished third in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise John Porter Stakes (Group 3) and the Betfred Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3).
Noble Mission was 5-2-0 in seven starts at the age of five with victories in the Betfred Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3), Betfair Price Rush Huxley Stakes (Group 3), Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1), Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) and the QIPCO Champion Stakes (Group 1). He finished second in the John Porter Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Group 3) and the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis – Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (Group 1).

Code of Honor has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the second best-bred horse in this herd of runners. He has room to improve in his third start of the season and I look for him to run a good race.
Honorable mention goes to Bourbon War (7-2) and Maximum Security (9-2). Bourbon War has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I like him better than Hidden Scroll. His breeding ranks him fourth in this herd of runners behind Current, Code of Honor and Harvey Wallbanger.



*****

A total of 35 prep races comprise the USA Road to the Kentucky Derby. In addition, there are seven races on the European road and four races on the Japan road to Derby glory.


2019 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. By My Standards, 100, Bret Calhoun, $600,000
2. War of Will, 60, Mark Casse, $440,840
3. Code of Honor, 54, Shug McGaughey, $338,070
4. Long Range Toddy, 53.5, Steve Asmussen, $830,000
5. Cutting Humor, $50, Todd Pletcher, $462,467
6. Haikal, 50, Kiaran McLaughlin, $247,500
7. Tacitus, 50, Bill Mott, $210,000
8. Game Winner, 43, Bob Baffert, $1,610,000
9. Spinoff, 40, Todd Pletcher, $224,000
10. Omaha Beach, 37.5, Richard Mandella, $450,000
11. Mind Control, 30, George Sacco, $355,000
12. Anothertwistafate, 30, Blaine Wright, $228,960
13. ++Country House, 30, Bill Mott, $120,000
14. Sueno, 28, Keith Desormeaux, $265,000
15. Improbable, 25, Bob Baffert, $389,520
16. Mucho Gusto, 24, Bob Baffert, $286,800
17. Gunmetal Gray, 21.75, Jerry Hollendorfer, $247,500
18. Bourbon War, 21, Mark Henning, $90,200
19. Somelikeithotbrown, 20, Mike Maker, $321,665
20. Outshine, 20, Todd Pletcher, $74,500
+ = Profiled as an A+ yearling on our 2017 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sales list. ++ = Profiled as a B yearling at the 2017 Keeneland September sale.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Royal Marine (IRE), 10, Saeed bin Suroor, $264,968
2. Magna Grecia (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $185,000
3. Mohawk (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $128,702
4. Japan (GB), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $75,316
5. Phoenix of Spain (IRE), 4, Charlie Hill, $157,944
6. Broome (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $140,871
7. Sydney Opera House (GB), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $40,956
8. Mount Everest (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $24,254
9. Anodor (FR), 2, Freddie Head, $99,215
10. Western Australian (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $43,084
11. Cape of Good Hope (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $41,515
12. Power of Now (IRE), 2, Michael O’Callaghan, $11,489
13. Boitron (FR), 1, Richard Hannon, $44,917
14. Victory Command, (IRE), 1, Mark Johnston, $35,108
15. Circus Maximus (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $24,368
16. Sovereign (IRE), 1, Aiden O’Brien, $5,106


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Earnings
1. Nova Lenda (JPN), 20, Takashi Saito, $446,285
2. f-Make Happy, 12, Koichi Shinkai, $184,181
3. Derma Louvre (JPN), 8, Hirofumi Toda, $447,672
4. Gal Vihara, 4, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $216,271
2. Kingen (JPN), 4, Kunihide Matsuda, $97,867
3. Johaan (JPN), 2, Yasuyuki Takahashi, $72,900
4. Romantico (JPN), 1, Kazuo Fujisawa, $91,245

Friday, March 22, 2019

Louisiana Derby Stakes Racing Roundup


©2019 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Fair Grounds Race Course where WAR OF WILL has been tabbed as the 6-5 morning line favorite in the 106th running of the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2). Post time is 6:13 p.m. ET.
War of Will comes into this race with a 3-1-1 record in seven starts including a win in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2)for trainer Mark Casse. Here’s the video and chart call of the Risen Star:

WAR OF WILL was asked to establish position leaving the gate, went four wide on the first turn, tracked the pace down the backstretch, engaged the leader while three wide early on the far turn, took the lead just inside the three eighths, moved clear approaching the quarter pole responded well in the stretch and held under steady urging.

War of Will was clearly dominate in this race and he took another step forward to win his second start of the season by 2¼ lengths.
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor, a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and his profile ranks him second in this herd of runners. He’s been training well at Fair Grounds and I look for him to take another step forward in his run to potential Kentucky Derby glory.
COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Bill Mott including a second-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

COUNTRY HOUSE was off slow, spotted the front a couple of lengths, moved in near the back, raced inside early on the first turn then moved to the two path, settled towards the rear, was urged along while three then four wide on the far turn, came between horses at the five sixteenths, gained five wide into the stretch, lugged in significantly near the three sixteenths then was straightened by the rider, continued to lug in some in the final furlong and finished willingly for the place.

Country House looked good in his second start of the season to finish with second-place stakes honors.
Lookin at Lucky, the sire of Country House, was a multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 9-1-1 record in 13 starts with $3,307,278 in career earnings.
Undefeated in four starts, Lookin at Lucky scored impressive stakes victories as a two year old in the Best Pal Stakes (G2), Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Norfolk Stakes (G1), before suffering his first loss by a neck to Vale of York in the 2009 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). He came back from that loss to close the season with a win in the CashCall Futurity Stakes (G1).
As a three year old, Lookin at Lucky won the Rebel Stakes (G2) and he finished third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) en route to a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Lookin at Lucky went on to earn Classic Champion Thoroughbred honors with a three-quarter length victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Country House has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s a yearling (Hip 2203) we profiled at the 2017 Keeneland September sale. However, the only yearlings I mentioned in my blog post were ones with an A+ or A grade ranking.
Country House is an improving colt and I look for him to take another step forward in his third start of the season.
SPINOFF (8-1) comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 2-0-1 record in three starts including a win in an Allowance Optional Claiming race last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SPINOFF was bumped soon after the start, vied inside for the early lead, eased back off the pace on the backside, re bid outside of MERCUSIO entering the far turn, took charge at the quarter pole, responded when roused under right handed urging in upper stretch and drew away for the win.

After taking a break for six months, Spinoff looked good to win his first start of the season by a dominating 11 lengths.
Hard Spun, the sire of Malpais, was undefeated in three starts as a two-year-old, including wins in the Port Penn Stakes and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. As a three-year-old on the Derby trail, Hard spun was 2-0-0 in three starts including wins in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Lane’s End Stakes (G2).
Hard Spun went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and rounded out his classic campaign with a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
As a stallion, Hard Spun’s best runner on the Kentucky Derby trail was Wicked Strong who finished fourth in the 2014 Derby. His other top runners include: Le Romain, Hard Aces, Hard Not to Like, Someries, Gatting, King’s Spun, Promising Run, Questing and Hardest Core.
Spinoff has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to take another step forward in his second start of the season.
SUENO (8-1) comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record in five starts for trainer Keith Desormeaux including a second-place finish in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SUENO stalked the pace between foes, bid late in the four path outside of the winner and missed.

Sueno tracked the leaders mid pack to the far turn then made his move on the far turn to get up for second just three-quarters of a length shy of victory.
Atreides, the sire of Sueno, was a precocious and brilliant son of Medaglia d’Oro and multiple stakes winner that compiled a 4-0-0 record in five starts with $120,000 in career earnings before he was retired due to a tendon injury.
Atreides did not race as a two-year-old but at the age of three he showed a lot of promise as a quality stakes horse winning his stakes debut in the Monarchos Stakes by an outstanding 17½ lengths. In his last race, Atreides won the Aventura Stakes by 4½ lengths.
Sueno has an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him, potentially, competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Roiland (12-1) and Limonite (20-1) who could be factors in the exotics.


*****

A total of 35 prep races comprise the USA Road to the Kentucky Derby. In addition, there are seven races on the European road and four races on the Japan road to Derby glory.


2019 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. War of Will, 60, Mark Casse, $440,840
2. Code of Honor, 54, Shug McGaughey, $338,070
3. Long Range Toddy, 53.5, Steve Asmussen, $830,000
4. Haikal, 50, Kiaran McLaughlin, $247,500
5. Tacitus, 50, Bill Mott, $210,000
6. Game Winner, 43, Bob Baffert, $1,610,000
7. Omaha Beach, 37.5, Richard Mandella, $450,000
8. Mind Control, 30, George Sacco, $355,000
9. Improbable, 25, Bob Baffert, $389,520
10. Gunmetal Gray, 21.75, Jerry Hollendorfer, $247,500
11. Bourbon War, 21, Mark Henning, $90,200
12. Somelikeithotbrown, 20, Mike Maker, $321,665
13. ++Country House, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000
14. Outshine, 20, Todd Pletcher, $74,500
15. Knicks Go, 18, Ben Colebrook, $656,085
16. Signalman, 18, Ken McPeek, $392,840
17. Mucho Gusto, 14, Bob Baffert, $210,000
18. Tax, 12, Danny Gargan, $167,500
19. +Harvey Wallbanger, 10, Kenny McPeek, $208,320
20. Well Defined, 10, Kathy O’Connell, $172,970
+ = Profiled as an A+ yearling on our 2017 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sales list. ++ = Profiled as a B yearling at the 2017 Keeneland September sale.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Royal Marine (IRE), 10, Saeed bin Suroor, $264,968
2. Magna Grecia (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $185,000
3. Mohawk (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $128,702
4. Japan (GB), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $75,316
5. Phoenix of Spain (IRE), 4, Charlie Hill, $157,944
6. Broome (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $140,871
7. Sydney Opera House (GB), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $40,956
8. Mount Everest (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $24,254
9. Anodor (FR), 2, Freddie Head, $99,215
10. Western Australian (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $43,084
11. Cape of Good Hope (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $41,515
12. Power of Now (IRE), 2, Michael O’Callaghan, $11,489
13. Boitron (FR), 1, Richard Hannon, $44,917
14. Victory Command, (IRE), 1, Mark Johnston, $35,108
15. Circus Maximus (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $24,368
16. Sovereign (IRE), 1, Aiden O’Brien, $5,106


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Earnings
1. Nova Lenda (JPN), 20, Takashi Saito, $446,285
2. f-Make Happy, 12, Koichi Shinkai, $184,181
3. Derma Louvre (JPN), 8, Hirofumi Toda, $447,672
4. Gal Vihara, 4, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $216,271
2. Kingen (JPN), 4, Kunihide Matsuda, $97,867
3. Johaan (JPN), 2, Yasuyuki Takahashi, $72,900
4. Romantico (JPN), 1, Kazuo Fujisawa, $91,245