Wednesday, September 21, 2016

The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, A Powerful Handicapping and Sales Analysis Tool, Picks Iroquois Stakes, Several Top Yearlings at Keeneland Sale

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Since the debut of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (G1), Dallas and I are excited about the results we’ve achieved with the software as a powerful handicapping and Thoroughbred sales analytical tool.
We see our software as “A New Vision, Standard Of Excellence, For An Old Industry.” And, we are confident that it will revolutionize the Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry.
The software assigns each horse a profile score. The higher the score the more potential that horse has to be a top-quality stakes winner or a winner of a classic race like the Kentucky Derby.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is a powerful tool that helps horse owners and breeders take the guesswork breeding their horses. In addition, the profile is a powerful sales analytical tool for horse buyers, helping them make the best decisions and investments when buying horses at auction.
For example, Carpe Diem was a $1.6 million dollar purchase as a 2YO in training. However, our software profile accurately predicted he would not finish in the money in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Last weekend, readers who used my picks for the Iroquois Stakes (G3) could have cashed in on the Exacta ($40.80) and Trifecta ($173.80).
In addition to being and excellent handicapping tool, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is also a proven sales analytical tool that picked several of the top-priced yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
Overall there were 4,479 yearlings cataloged for sale with 2,334 colts. I know the breeding it takes to produce a young horse with stakes and classic potential and through session eight I profiled 101 colts that had an A+ or A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Grade Index. Of those, 11 sold for over $500,000. Here’s a look at those horses.








































Hip 845, a bay colt by Curlin out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, brought the hammer down for $1 million as the sale topper on day one of book two and he was purchased by Mike Ryan, a bloodstock agent for E5 Racing. Ryan also was involved in a previous yearling sale with the purchase of Palace Malice, another son of Curlin and winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1). 
“He’s as good a Curlin as you’ll see,” said Ryan in a Bloodhorse news story. “Curlin is Curlin. In my mind he’s as good as Tapit.”
Here’s the video of his sale:




In session eight, Ryan also purchased Hip 2582, a bay colt by Curlin out of Mystery Trip by Belong to Me, for $280,000. This colt was one of my personal favorites and best of sale. I watched his sale on line and he appeared to have a very good mind and temperament. He stood there like a statue with his ears flicking back and forth, surveying his environment, and appeared to be very composed and in command.
I’ll be looking forward to see how he fares in his development as a young colt in training. One never knows how any of these young horses will fare as a racehorse. But he has a good pedigree and, if he lives up his breeding, he has the potential to be competitive in stakes and classic competition.
Hip 154, a chestnut colt by Tapit out of Afleeting Lady by Afleet Alex, sold for $850,000 to Courtlandt Farm and he was the third highest price on day one of book one. Here’s the video of his sale:





Hip 161, a gray or roan colt by Tapit out of Alittlebitearly by Thunder Gulch, sold for $800,000 to John C. Oxley and he was the fourth highest priced yearling on day one of book one. Here’s the video of his sale.
Hip 374, a bay colt by Tapit out of Grand Prayer by Grand Slam, was the seventh highest priced yearling on day two of book one and he sold for $700,000 to Hidden Brooke Farm. Here’s the video of his sale.
Hip 183, a bay colt by Curlin out of Arania by Dynaformer, was the sixth highest priced yearling sold on day one of book one and he sold for $675,000 to Lanes End. Here’s the video of his sale.
Hip 956, a chestnut colt by Curlin out of On My Way by Giant’s Causeway, was the third highest priced yearling on day one of book two and he sold for $550,000 to Tom Conway. Here’s the video of his sale.
Here’s a look at the other horses I profiled through session eight that had an A+ or A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®:

Sire
Hip – (Dam)

Galileo                                             Sale Price       Buyer
Hip 446 – (La Traviata)                      out

Mineshaft
Hip 1976 – (Bola de Cristal)              $52,000           Denholtz Stables
Hip 2164 – (Mumbo Jumbo)              $33,000           K.O.I.D. Co., Ltd.
Hip 1030 – (Snooki)                          $120,000         Winchell Thoroughbreds
Hip 1420 – (Screen Goddess)             $275,000         Steven W. Young, Agent
Hip 1773 – (Opera Song)                   $55,000           Main Line Stable
Hip 853 – (Greatest Show)                $210,000         Reeves Thoroughbred
Hip 1952 – (Aurora Prospect)            $55,000           Robert Meier

Curlin
Hip 1256 – (Guard the Lines)            $450,000         Jerry Crawford/Donegal Racing
Hip 512 – (Moonlight Lover)               $300,000         Katsumi Yoshida        
Hip 2582 – (Mystery Trip)                  $280,000         Mike Ryan, Agent
Hip 806 – (Devious Intent)                 $425,000         Zayat Stables, LLC
Hip 662 – (Surf Song)                        $270,000         Zayat Stables. LLC
Hip 1678 – Curlin/In Escrow            $35,000           K.O.I.D. Co., Ltd.
Hip 458 – Curlin/Lilies So Fair          $200,000         Reeves Thoroughbred
Hip 2129 – (Marcellina d'Oro             out
Hip 2181 – (Over the Edge)                $140,000         Grand Oaks
Hip 528 – (Mythical Bride)                 $410,000         Mike Repole
Hip 1023 – (Silva)                              out
Hip 981 – (Purrfectly)                         $95,000           RNA
Hip 469 – (Love Match)                      $100,000         Tom McCrocklin

Giant’s Causeway
Hip 1410 – (Sail Away Home)             $35,000            RNA
Hip 464 – (Lost Empire)                    out
Hip 164 – (Alone)                              $180,000         Bluesky Bloodstock
Hip 1753 – (Miss Salsa)                    $25,000           Harry Weisleder
Hip 2204 – (Quiet Dance)                 $27,000           K.O.I.D. Co., Ltd.

Lemon Drop Kid
Hip 2097 – (Kulik Cat)                      $40,000           Luis A. Shirley
Hip 2045 – (Finnie Mac Cool)            $110,000         Bruno DeBerdt, Agent
Hip 2055 – (Genuine Class)              $5,000             Jerry Antoniuk
Hip 1117 – (Ava Darling)                  $45,000           RNA

Smart Strike
Hip 612 – (Sanima)                          $50,000           RNA
Hip 14 – (Secret Status)                   $90,000           King’s Equine
Hip 263 – (Compelling)                     $170,000         RNA
Hip 1112 – (A.P. Double Cat)            $67,000           King’s Equine
Hip 40 – (Soul Search)                       out

Bodemeister
Hip 1582 – (Cassis Royale)               $85,000           Juan Garcia
Hip 1100 – (Adream)                        $225,000         Bluewater Sales, Agent
Hip 1160 – (Composing)                   $17,000           RNA
Hip 591 – (Refinement)                     $80,000           RNA
Hip 497 – (Mining My Own)               $185,000         RNA
Hip 2293 – (Termite)                         out
Hip 2581 – (My Dear Lady)                $12,000           H. Allen Poindexter
Hip 890 – (Kootenai)                          $120,000         RNA

Distorted Humor
Hip 330 – (Eternal Bounty)                out
Hip 187 – (Aryaamm)                         out
Hip 42 – (Spare Change)                    $190,000         RNA
Hip 252 – (Cindy’s Mom)                   $230,000         Ben Glass
Hip 354 – (Gamely Girl)                     $450,000         A. Lavin, Agent

Bernardini
Hip 474 – (Madame Du Lac)              $60,000           RNA
Hip 607 – (Ruthian)                          $220,000         RNA
Hip 33 – (Smart Believer)                   $140,000         RNA
Hip 1361 – (Onza)                             $27,000           RNA
Hip 310 – (Dowell House)                  $260,000         Hartley/De Renzo
Hip 280 – (Dancing Flame)                out
Hip 318 – (Easter Bunnette)              $235,000         RNA

Medaglia d’Oro
Hip 278 – (Danceinthesunlight)          out
Hip 484 – (Malvinia)                          out

Street Sense
Hip 1639 – (Front and Center)          $70,000           Kazakov
Hip 1740 – (Media Madness)             $150,000         Parker Place Racing

Pioneerof the Nile
Hip 888 – (Katz Me If You Can)          $280,000         WD North TBs
Hip 1164 – (Cool Storm)                    out

Tapit
Hip 1274 – (Hurricane Flag)              $475,000         Sallusto & Albina Agent
Hip 36 – (Society Pages                     $150,000         Two Brothers Stable

Super Saver
Hip 186 – (Art Teacher                       out
Hip 193 – (Awesome Fleet                   out
Hip 1188 – (Donnay                          $22,000           RNA
Hip 1132 – (Be Smart                        $200,000         Silver Creek Thoroughbreds
Hip 1029 – (Snicker Belle                  $45,000           RNA

Animal Kingdom
Hip 715 – (Alyssum)                          $90,000           Bruno DeBerdt Agent
Hip 2137 – (Mesa Fresca)                  $140,000         H. Hatch, Agent 1
Hip 656 – (Subeen)                            $75,000           Winchell TBs
Hip 2275 – (St. Malo’s Gate)               $47,000           RNA
Hip 2540 – (Late Romance)                $20,000           Francisco D’Angelo, Agent

Street Cry
Hip 2781 – (Captivating Lass)          

Malibu Moon
Hip 976 – (Private Gift)                       $100,000         RNA
Hip 354 – (Fiscal Year)                       $72,000           Group 7C
Hip 46 – (Spirited Away)                     $70,000           RNA

Union Rags
Hip 104 – (Trensa)                            $200,000         Kempton
Hip 1965 – Bell’s Shoes)                    $210,000         Mike Ryan, Agent

Others
Hip 1224 – High Chaparral/Fire Fairy          $70,000           Paul Moroney Bloodstock
Hip 291 – Orb/Deep Feeling                         $300,000         Mayberry Farm
Hip 2001 – Treasure Beach/Cold Blooded     $27,000           Parrish Farms
Hip 2471 – Lonhro/Fly the Colors                $60,000           North American Thorouhbreds
Hip 289 – Frankel/Debonnaire                     $325,000         RNA
Hip 563 – War Front/Praise                         $100,000         Blandford Bloodstock
Hip 2210 – Tale of Ekati/Regally Bred          $45,000           RNA
Hip 2138 – Temple City/Mien                      $200,000         RNA
Hip 96 – Redoute's Choice/Thislillightofmine out
Hip 192 – Sea The Stars/Awesome d’Oro       $250,000         Calumet Farm
Hip 2015 – Sky Mesa/Dance Fever               $5,000             Eisaman Equine


*****
The ability to know how a horse may perform on the racetrack is a valuable resource not only for handicappers but it also is a valuable tool for breeders who want to know how to make the best breeding decisions and for buyers at auction who want to make the wisest investments.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software unlocks the secret of the pedigree and Ancestral Herd to identify which horses have the potential to be top-quality stakes winners or, perhaps, a classic champion.
If you are planning to breed, or purchase at auction, a potential classic-winning Thoroughbred, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need to take the guesswork out of buying and breeding champion racehorses.
The empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will easily show you which horses have the potential to be classic champions while other horses may only be quality stakes winners.
The profile will give you the important information necessary to make the best decisions and investments when breeding or buying horses at auction. For a free consultation, please contact us at my website Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Iroquois Stakes Racing Roundup

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The much anticipated journey on the 2016-2017 Road to the Kentucky Derby begins Saturday at Churchill Downs with the 35th running of the $150,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3). Post time is 5:59 ET.
Recruiting Ready has been tagged the 3-1 morning line favorite and he comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in three starts for trainer Horacio DePaz. In July, Recruiting Ready finished second in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3). A month later in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) he finished second but was disqualified to fourth-place. Here’s a look at that race.
Recruiting Ready picks up the services of Hall of Fame Jockey Gary Stevens and with C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the potential to be competitive and, perhaps, win this race. However, there are others I like better for the win.
Not This Time (4-1) comes into this race off of a 10-length maiden win at Ellis Park for trainer Dale Romans. Not This Time was unhurried early and finished nicely to score the easy win. Here’s a look at the race.
He looked good coming down the stretch and his final time of 1:35.99 is what I like to see in a young colt on the trail to the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Jockey Robby Albarado has ridden Not This Time in his previous two races and he retains the mount. Not this time should enjoy the stretch out in distance and I look for the pair to be competitive in the Iroquois Stakes (G3).
Lookin At Lee (6-1) comes into this race with a 2-0-0 record in three starts for trainer Steve Asmussen, including a narrow win by three-quarters of a length in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes. Here’s a look at that race.
Lookin At Lee also has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but if he runs to the same form of his last race, I look for him to be competitive.
A long shot I like in this race is Skinflint (20-1) who’s compiled a 1-1-0 record in three starts for trainer Dane Kobiskie. Skinflint comes into this race off of a 4¾-length maiden win at Gulfstream Park August 6. Here’s a look at that race.
The early fraction splits were fast and Skinflint showed good speed as he tracked the leaders to the top of the stretch where he pulled away and went on to record the easy win.
Skinflint looks like an improving young colt and another move forward will make him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Thirstforlife (7-2) who comes into this race with a 1-0-2 record in three starts for trainer Mark Casse.


*****

This is the fifth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 35 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is that the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) will replace the Grey Stakes (G3) as a qualifying race.

In addition, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Friday, August 5, 2016

Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Reaches Milestone 200,000 Views

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Since I started Classic Champion Thoroughbreds blog in June of 2009, I’m grateful for the reception it has received from people all over the word and, recently, my blog reached a milestone 200,000 page views.
When I created Classic Champion Thoroughbreds I had no idea if anyone would ever read a word I wrote. But, horses and horseracing are my passion and I had a lot to write about those subjects.
 And, I still have much to write about – especially about horses and the influence of the Ancestral Herd and the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which is a powerful software analytical tool that I use to determine the stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
Considering that my blog is only advertised by word of mouth and from faithful readers and bloggers who often link to my stories, I’m thankful for everyone who follows my blog and your support in sharing with others what I’ve previously written.
Thanks to all who read my blog and contribute comments. I appreciate all of your insights, comments and look forward to reading your commentary in the future.


Sincerely, 
Calvin

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Exaggerator Makes Bid In Belmont To Win Last Leg Of Triple Crown

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the trail to classic glory takes us to Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, where Exaggerator will go the starting gate as the 9-5 morning line favorite in the 148th running of the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1) which is the last jewel of the prestigious Triple Crown of American horseracing.
Prerace television coverage begins at 3 p.m. ET on the NBC Sports Network with race coverage switching to NBC at 5 p.m. Post-race coverage will be on the NBC Sports Network from 7 to 7:30 p.m. ET.
In addition to Exaggerator, Suddenbreakingnews (10-1) and Lani (30-1) could be solid competitors if they live up to their breeding. Other horses that could, perhaps, be factors are Stradivari (5-1) and Governor Malibu (12-1).
Knowing as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s and my research and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®  which is an analytical tool I use to measure the graded stakes and classic potential of young horses.
In 2014, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® was developed into a software program by my brother, Dallas, and it assigns each horse a numerical score which is the indicator of that horse’s potential. The higher the score, the more potential that horse has to become a quality stakes horse or classic champion.
Let’s take a look at the profiles of the horses in Belmont Stakes (G1) 148:













As you can see in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, the quality of breeding is much better than in the previous two classic races and there six horses with an A+ grade ranking: Suddenbreakingnews, Lani, Trojan Nation (30-1),  Brody’s Cause (20-1), Seeking the Soul (30-1) and Destin (6-1).
Governor Malibu and Forever d’Oro (30-1) both have an A profile rating while Stradivari and Creator (10-1) have B rankings. Gettysburg (30-1) and Exaggerator have C profile rankings.
Suddenbreakingnews and Lani have the best breeding and they rank in the top four in the three charts above. However, they have yet to fully live up to their breeding and there can be many contributing factors for horses like those two not running to their profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.
Our research which is documented in my numerous blogs and website, shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score which is a measurement of the breeding influences found in the five-generation pedigree. If horses like Suddenbreakingnews and Lani are not running close to their profile score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full potential needs to be investigated.
Horse behavior is also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the racetrack and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is the addition of the Behavior Index which I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
The Behavior Index is proving to be a very valuable analytical tool, and, with its addition to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.
In addition to the Behavior Index, Data Mining is also a valuable analytical tool that helps to improve the result of a horse with a low profile score. For example, in the last chart above, when Data Mining is applied to Exaggerator and Stradivari, they move up into the top four and Cherry Wine also moves up in the ranking.
Other horses that perhaps should receive Data Mining are Governor Malibu and Creator. When that variable is added to those two, Governor Malibu is tied with Stradivari in fourth and Creator moves up to sixth in the ranking.
There’s no doubt about adding Data Mining to Exaggerator and time will tell if it was justifiable to add that variable to Stradivari, Governor Malibu, Creator and Cherry Wine.
Some horses that have low profile scores, like Nyquist and Exaggerator who have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, can be moved up because their Behavior Index and Data Mining makes them competitive, enabling them to sometimes win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance. However, only a few horses with low profile scores, like Nyquist and Exaggerator, can go on to win races at the classic distance.
In the final analysis, the Behavior Index and Data Mining variables are applied to a select few horses while the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the standard of measurement for the rest of the horses in the race.
Let’s take a look at the horses I like in Belmont Stakes (G1) 148:


SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (10-1) is sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he’s the best bred horse in this race.
I’ve liked Suddenbreakingnews since last fall and I wrote about him in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook. At that time, he was ranked number one on my list of horses that had yet to qualify for the Derby.
To date, Suddenbreakingnews has compiled a 3-4-0 record in nine starts including a troubled trip in the Rebel Stakes (G2) where he finished a disappointing fifth to Cupid. Suddenbreakingnews improved off of that run to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and he came from almost dead last in the Kentucky Derby (G1) to finish a respectable fifth. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of the Derby as well as an interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse.

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was jammed up just after the start, steadied nearing the wire the first time while saving ground, leveled into stride along the rail, altered out and around a tiring rival leaving the far turn, dropped back to the inside cutting the corner into the lane, was maneuvered out sharply inside the three-sixteenths pole, straightened away and finished with a burst.

Like his previous races, Suddenbreakingnews was running in “race horse” time at the end but he was too far back when he started his run to finish in the money. Hopefully the switch to jockey Mike Smith in the Belmont will have him closer to the pace in the so that he can finish in the top four or, perhaps, upset at a nice price.
Mineshaft, the sire of Suddenbreakingnews, was an outstanding route racer who compiled a 10-3-1 record in 18 lifetime starts. He began his racing career in England at the age of three, winning a maiden weight for age race at Newmarket. In November, Mineshaft was shipped to America where he won two more races to close out the season with a 3-1-1 record in nine starts.
As a four year old, Mineshaft really proved himself as a champion and compiled a 7-2-0 record in route to earning Horse of the Year and Champion Older Horse honors. In nine starts, Mineshaft won the New Orleans Handicap (G2), Ben Ali Stakes (G3), Pimlico Special Handicap (G1), Suburban Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1) and the Jockey Club Gold Club Stakes (G1).
Suddenbreakingnews is bred on the nick of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd over the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd which is the same nick as Nehro who finished second in the 2011 Kentucky Derby (G1) to Animal Kingdom.
However, Suddenbreakinnews has much better breeding than Nehro and if he lives up to that breeding he has the potential to be a Classic Champion Thoroughbred.


LANI (20-1) is a sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he’s another example of a horse with a high profile that has not lived up to his breeding. He finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and fifth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Here’s the video of the Preakness Stakes (G1), chart call and interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse:

LANI bobbled at the break and was away last, dropped far back early and raced off the rail, began a run leaving the three eighths, steadied off heels soon into the lane, angled out to split rivals, lugged in briefly near the eighth pole, corrected and kept on with good energy.

Despite finishing off the board, Lani made up a lot of ground over a sloppy track to finish a respectable fifth and appears to be a horse that is improving and getting more acclimated to racing in America.
“He likes his surroundings here at Belmont Park,” said trainer Mikio Matsunaga in a Blood Horse news story.  “He’s been having a good time in New York and we’re looking forward to running Saturday...He was very controllable, according to the rider. And he showed good acceleration coming out of the turn and he had great strides,” added Matsunaga.
In the UAE Derby (G2), Lani and Polar River were the two horses I liked and his victory in that race earned him a spot in the starting gate of Kentucky Derby 142. Here’s the video and Racing Post chart call of his run in the UAE Derby:

[LANI] broke awkwardly, chased leaders 4f out, led 110 yds out, ran on well.

Lani recovered well after the horrible start to get up and secure the win over a very good Polar River who was undefeated in four starts going into that race.
To date, Lani has compiled a 3-1-0 record in eight starts. His other significant races include a win in the Cattleya Sho Stakes and a fifth-place finish in the one mile Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse. Here’s the video of Hyacinth Stakes.
Despite the fifth-place finish in the Hyacinth Stakes, Lani only lost by 2¾ lengths and the final time of 1:35.40 is what I like to see colts run on the Derby Trail.
Tapit, the sire of Lani, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Much was made about the quirky behavior of Lani leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Here’s what Bloodstock agent and clocker Gary Young had to say about Lani in his last work out on May 3:

The “Iron Horse” with a mind and a will of his own entered the building at 8:35 a.m. He had the same look on him as Russell Crowe in “Gladiator” as he entered the Coliseum. The plan was to break off at the 3/4 pole if the beast so desired. He declined. This is a prime case of the inmates running the prison but by the time he saw the 5/8 pole he decided to work. He went smoothly throughout in :24.40 and :36.60 and got to the wire under light coaxing in 1.01. He may lose the Derby but it won’t be because he’s undertrained. After he pulled up from his work, he came to a walk and was asked to walk another lap around the main track. I’m starting to believe his toughness and attitude is the stuff Godzilla was made of.

As a student of Life, I’m always interested in learning why individuals, be they human or one of God’s Equine creations, fail to live up to their full potential. Lani has yet to live up to his potential, but, since coming to America, he now appears to be well adjusted in his training at Belmont Park.
If Lani returns to his previous form in the UAE Derby and runs much closer to the pace, I look for him to be competitive and, perhaps, upset at a nice price.


EXAGGERATOR (9-5) is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd which has been a powerful influence in American classic racing. Since 1990 descendants of that herd have sired 30 Classic Champion Thoroughbreds who have won 41 of the past 78 Triple Crown races for a 53% strike rate.
Exaggerator comes into this race with a 5-3-1 record in 11 starts for trainer Keith Desormeaux including a fast closing second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and a win in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Here’s the video of the Preakness Stakes (G1), chart call and interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse:

EXAGGERATOR dove toward the fence in the initial furlong as the leaders were content to contest the pace off the inside, quickly gained along the rail nearing the half marker and took measure of the leaders, was patiently handled leaving the three eighths, angled out to be six wide entering the stretch, forged past NYQUIST with three sixteenths remaining, kicked clear then lugged in despite left-handed rousing in mid-stretch, kept on after his rider switched to the right stick and held firm.

Exaggerator has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, but his Behavior Index and Data Mining variables make him competitive in this race.
Curlin, the sire of Exaggerator, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Exaggerator is the horse to beat and while it remains to be seen if he can win the Belmont Stakes (G1), I look for him to be competitive.


STRADIVARI (5-1) is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd and he comes into the Belmont Stakes (G1) with a 2-0-0 record in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, including a fourth-place finish in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Here’s the video of the Preakness Stakes (G1), chart call and interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse:

STRADIVARI broke inward and brushed with FELLOWSHIP, corrected then was difficult to settle when rank advancing into the first turn, continued rank heading toward the backstretch, moved with the winner while between horses into the far turn, gave hard chase past the five sixteenths, was carried six wide as the winner angled for room, straightened away to remain a solid presence to mid-stretch then gave way grudgingly.

Despite his light seasoning and stepping up in class, Stradivari ran valiantly and just barely missed finishing second by a half a length.
Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of Stradivari, was a good middle-distance runner that compiled an 8-7-0 record in 17 starts with $5,754,720 in career earnings. Overall, he had seven wins and five second-place finishes in 14 route races.
Medaglia d’Oro finished second in his only start as a two year old but as a three year old he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
In the Preakness Stakes (G1), Medaglia d’Oro finished eighth but rebounded from that run to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He went on to complete his racing season as a three year old with wins in the nine-furlong Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
As a four year old, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Strub Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1). In addition, he finished second in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
At the age of five, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Donn Handicap (G1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (G1).
Stradivari’s ranked ninth in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart and when you add his Behavior Index and Data Mining influences he moves up into the top four.
He ran exceptionally well in the Preakness Stakes (G1) just off the leaders who set blistering fast fractions. Stadivari has room to improve in his third start of the season and another move forward would make him very competitive in the Belmont Stakes (G1).


GOVERNOR MALIBU (12-1) is a sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and he has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. He comes into this race for trainer Christophe Clemente with a 2-4-1 record in seven starts including a second-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) at Belmont on May 14. Here’s the video and chart call of the Peter Pan:

GOVERNOR MALIBU crossed to the two path shortly after the start allowed to settle near the rear early on, remained saving ground unhurried until the five-sixteenths when put to coaxing, continued just off the inside into upper stretch, rallied angling out nearing the sixteenth marker offering up a good finish to threaten late, shied under a near sided stick and was corrected then latched on to the forementioned foe in the final jumps.

The fractions in this race were blistering fast with the mile split at 1:34.46 and the finish time of 1:47.14. That’s the kind of time I like to see in colts on the Triple Crown Trail and Governor Malibu ran just a few lengths off the leaders but came up short to lose by three-quarters of a length to a talented Unified.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Governor Malibu, made only two starts as a two year old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher and Malibu Mint.
Governor Malibu appears to be an improving colt while his performance in the Peter Pan was his best yet. Jockey Joel Rosario retains the mount on Governor Malibu and another move forward could make him very competitive in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Honorable mention goes to Brody’s Cause, Destin, Trojan Nation and Seeking the Soul who have an A+ ranking but have yet to live up to the breeding.
I wrote about Brody’s Cause and Destin in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook and a finish in the top four by either of them would be no surprise. In two charts above, Brody’s Cause is ranked in the top four while Destin is ranked in the top four in one chart.