Thursday, June 6, 2019

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Outcome of Belmont Stakes


Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Outcome of Belmont Stakes

By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The classic trail to the third jewel of the Triple Crown takes us this Saturday to Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, where TACITUS has been tagged as the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the 151st running of the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1). Post time is 6:37 ET.
Knowing as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®  which is an analytical tool that measures the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The profile is breeding, sales and racing analysis tool used to measure the graded stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
In addition to the profile, we have also created a Behavior Index which allows us to identify legitimate and false race contenders and thus move some horses up or down in ranking.
Let’s look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in the Belmont Stakes.



As you can see in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, seven of the ten horses entered in this race have a grade ranking of A or better making this a very good Belmont field of contenders.
In the second chart, the Behavior Index has been applied to five horses highlighted in red allowing us to move horses up or down in ranking. Regarding handicapping, if you think that any of the top four horses in the first chart are false contenders, then they could be moved down in ranking and horses like Tax and Intrepid Heart, in the second chart, could be moved up into the top four ranking.
Let’s look at the horses I like in this race.


TACITUS has been tabbed the 9-5 morning-line favorite and he comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in five starts for trainer Bill Mott including fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He was placed third due to the disqualification of Maximum Security who crossed the finish line first. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TACITUS steadied while unsettled behind horses first time through the stretch, found a better rhythm through the middle stages, came five wide off the turn, exchanged brushes with GAME WINNER late and finished with good courage.

Tacitus ran well in just his third start of the season to finish only 3¼ lengths shy of victory.
Tapit, the sire of Tacitus, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
Tacitus has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the best-bred horse in this herd of runners. Tacitus has the breeding to win this race and I look for him to take another step forward in the stretch out to 12 furlongs.


WAR OF WILL (2-1) comes into this race with a 4-1-1 record in ten starts including a win in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

WAR OF WILL broke alertly, was nicely in hand saving ground on the first turn, rated kindly behind the leader down the backstretch, advanced leaving the far turn, had an opening along the inner rail, took command leaving the three sixteenths, edged away under brisk urging and held firm.

War of Will’s win in the Preakness Stakes (G1) was sweet redemption after he was hampered severely by Maximum Security at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby (G1)
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor, a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him a legitimate contender.


TAX (15-1) comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record in six starts including a fifteenth-place finish in the win in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TAX saved ground throughout and was no factor.

Tax is much better than how he ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and I look for him to improve off that race.
Arch, the sire of Tax, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969 in career earnings.
Arch made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3).
Arch passed away in 2016 and as a stallion, his best runners include: Instilled Regard, Nyaleti, Arklow, Blame, Grand Arch, Arravale, Hymn Book, Art Trader, Les Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine Island.
Tax has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding to be competitive. I look for him to run good.


INTREPID HEART (10-1) comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a third-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

INTREPID HEART stumbled at the start then got bumped by FEDERAL CASE who broke inwards, chased just off the inside down the backstretch, came under coaxing at the nine-sixteenths and tipped four wide through the turn, swung five wide into upper stretch, drifted in straightened away and weakened while passing a pair of tiring rivals to secure the show honors.

In just his third career start, and second start of the season, Intrepid Heart finished a respectable third in the step up to Graded Stakes competition against seasoned runners.
Tapit, the sire of Intrepid Hearst, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
Intrepid Heart has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding to be competitive. He’s an improving colt and I look for him to take another step forward in his third start of the season.

Tacitus has the best breeding by far and he should win this race. There’s not much in the profile score that separates the other five horses with an A+ profile. Honorable mention goes to Bourbon War (12-1), Spinoff (15-1) and Sir Winston (12-1).







Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Outcome of Preakness Stakes


By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The classic trail to the second jewel of the Triple Crown takes us this Saturday to Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland, where IMPROBABLE tagged as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 144th running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1). Post time is 6:48 ET.
Knowing as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®  which is an analytical tool that measures the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The profile is breeding, sales and racing analysis tool used to measure the graded stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
In addition to the profile, we have also created a Behavior Index which allows us to identify legitimate and false race contenders and thus move some horses up or down in ranking.
Let’s look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in Kentucky Derby 145.




As you can see in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, five of the horses entered in this race have a grade ranking of A or better and three have a ranking of B.
In the second chart, the Behavior Index has been applied to five horses highlighted in red allowing us to move horses up or down in ranking. In regard to handicapping, if you think that any of the top four horses in the first chart are false contenders, then they could be moved down in ranking and horses like Improbable and Anothertwistafate in the second chart could be moved up in raking.
Let’s look at the morning line favorite as well as others that I like in this race.


IMPROBABLE comes into this race with a 3-2-0 record in six starts for trainer Bob Baffert including a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Improbable was placed fourth on the disqualification of Maximum Security. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

IMPROBABLE went along in striking range covered up in the two path, idled through the far turn in traffic losing some position, shifted out in the drive and offered some mild response.

In our Kentucky Derby analysis, we had Improbable ranked sixth and he finished fifth.
City Zip, the sire of Improbable, ran mostly in sprint races, compiling a 9-5-4 record in 31 starts with $818,225 in career earnings.
As a two year old, City Zip won the Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2), Saratoga Special (G2) and the Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, as a three year old on the 2001 Kentucky Derby Trail, his best finish was a third place to Songandaprayer in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1).
Despite his propensity for sprinting, at stud City Zip has sired his share of numerous, good, sprinters as well as several middle-distance runners such as Collected, Get Serious, Alert Bay, Acting Zippy, Dayatthespa, With a City, Unzip Me, City to City, Workin for Hops and Personal Diary.

Improbable has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and his Behavior Index indicates that he will be competitive in this field. I look for him to run a good race.


WAR OF WILL (4-1) comes into this race with a 3-1-1 record in nine starts including an eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

WAR OF WILL found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three path into upper stretch and weakened.

War of Will was running well but lost his momentum when Maximum Security moved out and nearly collided with him.
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor, a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).

War of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and his profile  makes him a legitimate contender.


BOURBON WAR (12-1) comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in five starts for trainer Mark Henning including a fourth-place finish in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

BOURBON WAR was unhurried early in the two path, raced three then four wide around the far turn, and improved position without a solid bid.

Bourbon War looked good and appeared to be poised for at least a placing, of not victory, in classic competition.
Tapit, the sire of Bourbon War, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).

Bourbon War has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s much better than his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1) indicates. I look for him to run a good race.
I think that three horses mentioned above are solid competitors. Other horses that could be factors in the bottom of the exotics are Anothertwistafate, Bodexpress, Alwaysmining and Laughing Fox.

Sunday, May 5, 2019

Kentucky Derby 145 Wrapup: Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Derby Outcome


Tabbed Country House at 2017 Keeneland Sale

By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, for the second year in a row, shows its prowess as a sales analysis tool with the win of Country House in Kentucky Derby 145.  A chestnut colt by Lookin at Lucky out of Quake Lake by War Chant, Country House was a yearling (Hip 2203) we profiled at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
In 2016, Classic Champion Thoroughbreds LLC debuted the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® as a sales analysis tool at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale and Good Magic was our best of sale pick. Good Magic went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile stakes, earning him the Eclipse Champion Two Year Old award, and he won the Blue Grass Stakes en route to a second-place finish in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Let’s look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Behavior Index of the horses in Kentucky Derby 145:




In the first chart above are the ranking of horses based upon the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The second chart list the ranking by breeding as well as the Behavior Index which we created to identify legitimate and false contenders. And, the third chart lists the Brisnet Prime Power rankings.
As you can see in the first chart, Country House has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s ranked ninth in breeding. Horses with his profile can be competitive on the Derby trail and I’ve written about him in my blog posts of prep races.
The reason why we profiled Country House at the 2017 Keeneland Sale is that there are specific, proprietary breeding influences we’ve identified that could factor into our profile analysis. However, when we profiled him at the Keeneland Sale it was too soon to add those breeding influences into our profile analysis.
When those breeding influences are added into our profile analysis, as you can see in chart two, Country House has an A+ profile and he’s ranked third in breeding. Also, in chart two, when we factor in the Behavior Index of the horses highlighted in green, Improbable, Game Winner, Vekoma, Roadster, Maximum Security are moved up in ranking while Spinoff is dropped in ranking. In addition, when you look at the breeding and Behavior Index, the profile tabbed five of the top seven finishers.
In my Kentucky Derby blog, I listed Code of Honor as potentially dropping in ranking but his pedigree shows that he could be competitive and he lived up to that breeding in the Derby.

*****

Since the debut of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, we’ve had tremendous success with horses that we profiled winning and placing in stakes competition.

2017 SALES

Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC currently has 18 horses we profiled (https://bit.ly/2PlLilZ) at the 2017 yearling sales that are performing well nationally and internationally.

COUNTRY HOUSE (Hip 2203): 2nd Kentucky Derby (G1), placed 1st in DQ. 2nd Risen Star (G2). 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1).

HARVEY WALLBANGER (Hip 176): 1st Holy Bull (G2).

STANDARD DEVIATION (Hip 1630): 3rd Champagne (G1).

CURRENT (Hip 1149): 1st Dixiana Bourbon (G3), Dania Beach.

SO ALIVE (Hip 000): 3rd Sam F. Davis (G3).

KINGLY (Hip 29): 1st California Derby.

DUNPH (Hip 114): 1st Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion. 3rd Remington Springboard Mile.

FIVE STAR GENERAL (Hip 66): 1st Central Park.

(f)-GRANDARIA (Hip 1025): 3rd Silverbulletday.

(f)-ALEXA ROSE (Hip 719): 1st Matchbook/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Novice, 2nd Ladbrokes Bet 5 Get 20 EBF Novice, 3rd in both the Inspire Racing Club British Stallion Studs EBF Novice and Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice.

DARK LOCHNAGAR (Hip 2709): 1st EBF ‘Double Trigger’ Novice.

LAAFY (Hip 496): 1st Lutterworth Novice Stakes. 2nd British Stallion Studs EBF Novice.

SEMOUM (Hip 558): 1st Snooty Frox Ebf Novice.

RED CENTRE (Hip 460): 3rd Smarkets British EBF Novice.

IL PARADISO (Hip 201): 2nd British EBF Crown At Stowupland Novice.

SPANISH MISSION (Hip 433): 1st Bet totequadpot At totesport.com Conditions. 3rd totespool Cashback Club At totesport.com EBF Novice.

In addition, two horses have been running well in South Korea.

THUNDER BLADE has compiled a 2-2-1 record in six starts at Seoul Racecourse, South Korea: https://bit.ly/2T5bVwS. A dark bay gelding by Tale of Ekati out of Regally bred by A.P. Indy (Hip 3025), Thunder Blade has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.

CURLIN TIME has compiled a 0-2-0 record in three starts at Busan Gyeongnam Racecourse Park, South Korea: https://bit.ly/2yJ8GDi. A chestnut colt by Curlin out of Inny Minnie by Hard Spun (Hip 1684), Curlin Time has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.

2016 SALES

In 2016, we debuted our Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software as a sales analytical tool at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Of 2,334 yearling colts, we profiled 101 colts that had an A or A+ grade ranking. From that sales list we now have 15 horses and one horse from the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale list that are either winners or placers in graded stakes and stakes races. Also, Good Magic, Free Drop Billy, Solomini and Vino Rosso ran in the 2018 Kentucky Derby:

GOOD MAGIC (Hip 845): Eclipse Champion Two Year Old, 1st Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Toyota Blue Grass (G2), Haskell Invitational, 2nd Champagne (G1), Kentucky Derby (G1), 3rd Fountain of Youth (G3).

FREE DROP BILLY (Hip 104): 1st Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 2ndSanford (G3), Hopeful (G1), Holy Bull (G2), 3rd Gotham (G3), Toyota Blue Grass (G2).

SOLOMINI (Hip 662): 2nd FrontRunner (G1), Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Rebel (G2), 3rd Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), Affirmed (G3).

VINO ROSSO (Hip 528): 1st Stymie, 1st Wood Memorial (G2), 3rd Sam F. Davis (G3), Jim Dandy (G2).

ARCHAGGELOS (Hip 2138): 1st Grey (G3), 2nd Woodhaven, 3rd Stanton.

CAMPAIGN (Hip 183): 1st Tokyo City Cup (G3).

HOLLYWOOD STAR (Hip 395): 2nd Saratoga Special (G2), Iroquois (G3).

LIFE’S A PARLAY (Hip 498): 1st Excelsior (G3), 2nd Gio Ponti. Life’s a Parlay is a colt we profiled but with an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he was not mentioned in our blog post.

KING ZACHARY (Hip 956): 1st Matt Winn (G3).

MISSISSIPPI (Hip 888): 3rd Florida Derby (G1).

COAT OF ARMS (IRE), (Hip 446): 2nd Galileo Irish E.B.F. Futurity (G2).

CANADIAN GAME (Hip 293): 3rd British Columbia Derby (G3).

GUNNISON (Hip 474): 1st Tale of the Cat.

WENTZ (Hip 1029): 2nd Frank Whiteley, Jr., 3rd Miracle Wood.

STRONGER (Hip 4154): 3rd Smooth Air.

TIGERBEACH (Hip 2001): 3rd Victoria.

In addition, one horse has been running well in handicap races in South Korea.

JUMBO BLADE has compiled a 5-2-1 record in eleven starts at Busan Gyeongnam Racecourse Park, South Korea: https://bit.ly/2RBOiv5. A bay colt by Mineshaft out of Mumbo Jumbo by Kingmambo (Hip 2164), Jumbo Blade has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.

Another three-year-old colt has run well in Japan.

BASIN STREET has compiled an 0-2-1 record in five starts https://bit.ly/2DcW2hV. A bay colt by Curlin out of Judith Basin by Danzig (Hip 2121), Basin Street was a weanling colt we profiled at the 2016 Keeneland November Mixed Sale and he has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.

The empirical data gathered by the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software easily shows which horses have the potential to be quality stakes winners or classic champions.
From foal to finish line™, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is a proven analytical tool you need for breeding, purchasing at auction and racing equine champions: http://bit.ly/2E99liF.

For a free initial consultation to evaluate how Classic Champion Thoroughbreds LLC can help you achieve your goals and dreams of owning or breeding a stakes horse or Classic Champion Thoroughbred, please contact us at our website or give us a call at (844) 346-2223.