©2018 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road
to the Kentucky Derby takes us to California this Saturday where Hall
of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert will send IMPROBABLE to
the starting gate as the 6-5 morning line favorite in the $300,000 Los Alamitos
Cash Call Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos Race Course. Post time is 5:28 p.m. ET.
Baffert
has won the Futurity a record 10 times and, since 2014, he’s won the last four
editions of this race.
Undefeated
in two starts, Improbable comes into this race off a win in the Street Sense
Stakes at Churchill Downs on November 2. Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
IMPROBABLE chased
the pace early, made a bid three wide nearing the lane, took over command in
the stretch then drew off late under a brisk drive.
Improbable
stalked the leaders to the far turn then drew off to win his stakes debut by an
impressive 7¼ lengths.
City Zip, the sire of Improbable, ran
mostly in sprint races, compiling a 9-5-4 record in 31 starts with $818,225 in
career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, City Zip won the Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2),
Saratoga Special (G2) and the Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, as a three year old
on the 2001 Kentucky Derby Trail, his best finish was a third place to Songandaprayer
in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1).
Despite
his propensity for sprinting, at stud City Zip has sired his share of numerous,
good, sprinters as well as several middle-distance runners such as Acting
Zippy, Dayatthespa, With a
City and Personal Diary.
Improbable
has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and that makes him competitive in this race.
A
long shot I like is KING OF SPEED
(15-1). He comes into this race with a 2-1-1 record in seven starts for trainer
Jeff Bonde including a twelfth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
(G1). Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
KING OF SPEED saved
ground off the pace, was under a ride past the three eighths and came up empty.
King
of Speed wasn’t a factor in this race and he may have not liked the yielding turf
course. In his previous turf race he won the one-mile Zuma Beach stakes in the
racehorse time of 1:34.35. Here’s the video.
Jimmy Creed, the sire of King of Speed, was
a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 4-2-2 record in 10 starts with
$439,250 in career earnings.
He
finished second in his maiden debut as a three-year-old and went on to compile
a 3-2-1 record in seven starts with a win in the Malibu Stakes (G1), a
second-place finish in the El Cajon Stakes and a third-place finish in the
Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (G1).
At
the age of four, Jimmy Creed was 1-0-1 in three starts with a win in the
Potrero Grande Stakes (G2) and a third-place finish in the Bing Crosby Stakes
(G1).
King of Speed
has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the best-bred colt in
this small herd of runners. He has the breeding to win this race and upset at
nice price.
Only time will
tell if King of Speed can step up in class to earn graded stakes honors.
Also
undefeated in two starts for trainer Bob Baffert is MUCHO GUSTO
(3-1). He comes into this race off a win in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3). Here’s
the video
and chart
call:
MUCHO GUSTO a bit
crowded at the start, had speed inside to set a pressured pace, inched away
approaching the turn, fought back along the rail on the turn and in the
stretch, inched away again under left-handed urging past mid-stretch and gamely
prevailed.
Mucho
Gusto took the lead at the start and led all the way, despite a challenge from
two rivals in the stretch, to win his graded stakes debut by 1½ lengths.
Mucho Macho
Man, the sire of Mucho Gusto, was a hearty, multiple graded stakes winner
that raced for six seasons compiling a 9-5-6 record in 25 starts with
$5,625,410 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Much Macho Man was 1-3-1 in five starts with second-place finishes
in both the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2).
At
the age of three, Much Macho Man was 2-0-2 in seven starts with a win in the
Risen Star Stakes (G3) and third-place finishes in both the Louisiana Derby (G2)
and Kentucky Derby (1).
Mucho
Macho Man was 3-2-1 in six starts as a four-year-old with wins in the Florida
Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes, Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) and Suburban
Handicap (G2). He finished second in both the Woodward Stakes (G1) and Breeders’
Cup Classic (G1), and, he finished third in the Alysheba Stakes (G2).
As
a five-year-old, Much Macho Man was 2-0-2 in five starts with wins in the
Awesome Again Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He finished third in
the Criminal Type Stakes and Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1).
Mucho
Macho Man ran twice at the age of six, finishing first in the Florida Sunshine
Millions Classic Stakes and fourth in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).
Mucho
Gusto has an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes
him competitive in this race.
Honorable
mention goes to Extra Hope (7-2).
*****
A
total of 35 prep races comprise the USA Road to the Kentucky Derby. In
addition, there are seven races on the European road and four races on the
Japan road to Derby glory.
2018/2019 KENTUCKY DERBY
LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Game Winner, 30, Bob Baffert, $1,460,000
2. Knicks Go, 18,
Ben Colebrook, $656,085
3. Signalman, 18, Ken McPeek, $392,840
4. Complexity, 10,
Chad Brown, $275,000
5. Maximus
Mischief, 10, “Butch” Reid, Jr., $137,500
6. Cairo Cat, 10, Ken McPeek, $86,490
7. Gunmetal Gray, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer, $120,000
8. Code of Honor, 4, Shug McGaughey, $100,000
9. Network Effect, 4, Chad Brown, $90,000
10. Tight Ten, 4, Steve Asmussen, $67,900
11. Plus Que Parfait, 4, Brendan Walsh, $36,400
12. Call Paul, 2, Jason Servis, $194,000
13. Mr. Money, 2, Bret Calhoun, $100,000
14. Rowayton, 2, Jerry Hollendorfer, $96,000
15.+Standard Deviation, 2, Chad Brown,
$50,000
16. Tax, 2, Danny Gargan, $30,000
17. Limonite, 2, Steve Asmussen, $18,200
18. Pole Sitter, 2, Brad Cox, $17,950
19. Sombeyay, 1, Todd Pletcher, $158,500
20. Tobacco Road, 1, Steve Asmussen, $63,400
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on our
2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Royal Marine (IRE), 10, Saeed bin Suroor, $264,968
2. Magna Grecia
(IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $185,000
3. Mohawk (IRE),
10, Aidan O’Brien, $128,702
4.
Japan (GB), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $75,316
5.
Phoenix of Spain (IRE), 4, Charlie Hill, $157,944
6.
Broome (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $140,871
7.
Sydney Opera House (GB), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $40,956
8.
Mount Everest (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $24,254
9.
Anodor (FR), 2, Freddie Head, $99,215
10.
Western Australian (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $43,084
11.
Cape of Good Hope (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $41,515
12.
Power of Now (IRE), 2, Michael O’Callaghan, $11,489
13.
Boitron (FR), 1, Richard Hannon, $44,917
14.
Victory Command, (IRE), 1, Mark Johnston, $35,108
15.
Circus Maximus (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $24,368
16.
Sovereign (IRE), 1, Aiden O’Brien, $5,106
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Earnings
1.
f-Make Happy, 10, Koichi Shinkai, $153,066
2.
Kingen (JPN), 4, Kunihide Matsuda, $97,867
3.
Johaan (JPN), 2, Yasuyuki Takahashi, $72,900
4.
Romantico (JPN), 1, Kazuo Fujisawa, $91,245
