Monday, October 9, 2017

Welcome To The 21st Century Thoroughbred: Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Software Tabs Keeneland Sales Graded Stakes Winners, Kentucky Derby Qualifiers

By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The ability to know the potential of a horse before he goes to the breeding shed, sales ring or race track is of utmost importance.
Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC – a new vision, standard of excellence for an old industry – is an innovative bloodstock consulting firm and leader in cutting-edge software analysis of Thoroughbred breeding, sales and race potential. The empirical data gathered by the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software easily shows which horses have the potential to be quality stakes winners or classic champions.
In 2016, Classic Champion Thoroughbreds profiled 101 yearlings listed in the Keeneland September Sale. Each of those profiled yearlings had a grade ranking of an A+ or A.
Now, there are numerous, promising two year olds in training from that sales list. Also from the Keeneland sales list we now have two graded stakes winners: Free Drop Billy (G1-Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity) and Archaggelos (G3-Grey Stakes).
In addition, of the 16 horses currently listed on the 2018 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, four (25%) of them are from our Keeneland Sales list.


STAKES WINNERS

Of the yearlings profiled at the 2016 Keeneland September Sale, we now have two graded stakes winners.


FREE DROP BILLY (Hip 104), a chestnut colt by Union Rags out of Trensa by Giant’s Causeway, is a half-brother to multiple group stakes winner Hawkbill and was purchased for $200,000 by agents Kempton/Berkelhammer for the Albaugh Family Stable. Here’s the video of Free Drop Billy in the Auction Ring.
Free Drop Billy is trained by Dale Romans and he has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. In four starts, he’s compiled a 2-2-0 record including a second-place finish in both the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Hopeful Stakes (G1), and a runaway four-length win in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of His Grade One Futurity win:




In his two previous stakes races, Free Drop Billy came up just shy of victory. However, his breeding shows that he has the potential to excel as the races get longer and he did not disappoint stretching out in the Grade One Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
"We always thought (it would suit him)," Romans said in a Bloodhorse news story. "If you look at all his numbers on paper, every time they stretched a race a bit, he got a little bit better. Today I think we saw what he is really capable of."
Free Drop Billy has good breeding and I look for him to be a factor on the Kentucky Derby Trail.


ARCHAGGELOS (Hip 2138), a bay colt by Temple City out of Mien by Nureyev, is a half-brother to dual classic winner Big Brown and was a $200,000 RNA for consignor Monticule, LLC.
Archaggelos is trained by Michael Dickinson and he has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. In three starts, Archaggelos has compiled a 2-1-0 record including an authoritative 2¾ length win in the Grey Stakes (G3). Here’s a look at the video and chart call of his win in the Grey Stakes (G3).
Archaggelos “strode clear with authority to take the GIII Grey Stakes at Woodbine Sunday by two lengths,” according to a Thoroughbred Daily News article. He paid $21 for the win which was especially impressive as Dickinson wheeled him back off one week’s rest from breaking his maiden at Laurel Park on September 24.
I look for Archaggelos to improve off of that effort and he has the breeding to be a factor on the Kentucky Derby Trail.


KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Of the 16 horses currently listed on the 2018 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, four (25%) of them are from our 2016 Keeneland Sales list.


FREE DROP BILLY (Hip 104): see write up above.


GOOD MAGIC (Hip 845), a chestnut colt by Curlin out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, was a $1 million session four sale topper purchased by agent Mike Ryan for E5 Racing. Here’s the video of Good Magic in the auction ring:



“He’s as good a Curlin as you’ll see,” said Ryan in a Bloodhorse news story.  “Curlin is Curlin. In my mind he’s as good as Tapit.”
Trained by Chad Brown, Good Magic has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s compiled a 0-2-0 record in two starts including a narrow half-length loss in the Grade One Champagne Stake. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:




In just his second start, Good Magic looked good finishing second in the Grade One Champagne and he has room to improve off of that effort. He has the breeding to be competitive and I look for him to be a factor as a three year old on the Kentucky Derby Trail.


HOLLYWOOD STAR (Hip 395), a dark bay or brown colt by Malibu Moon out of Hollywood Story by Wild Rush, was a $550,000 purchase by Kempton/Berkelhammer for the Albaugh Family Stable.
Hollywood Star has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s compiled a 1-2-0 record in three starts for trainer Dale Romans including second-place finishes in both the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and Iroquois Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of the Iroquois:




Hollywood Star narrowly lost to Tabulator by three quarters of a length but he has the breeding to excel as the distances get longer and I look for him to be a factor on the Kentucky Derby Trail.


SOLOMINI (Hip 662), a chestnut colt by Curlin out of Surf Song by Storm Cat, was purchased for $270,000 by Zayat Stables, LLC.
Conditioned by Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert, Solomini has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s compiled a 1-1-0 record in two starts including a second-place finish in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:




In just his second start, Solomini looked good to get up for the second-place finish. He has good breeding and I look for him to be a factor on the Kentucky Derby Trail.


*****

With over 22 years of experience studying Thoroughbreds, Calvin is the creator of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which was developed into a software program by his brother, Dallas, in 2014.
The profile assigns each horse a numerical score and grade ranking which is the indicator of that horse’s potential. The higher the score, the more potential that horse has to become a quality stakes horse or classic champion.
In 2015, we made this video about the software program:




The profile software is a powerful analytical tool that takes the guesswork out of breeders making mating selections, it also evaluates the graded stakes and classic potential of horses bought at auction or in handicapping races.


BREEDING

● The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® unlocks the secret of the Ancestral Herd influence.

● Is a valuable analytical tool that shows horse owners and breeders how a mare can upgrade or downgrade a stallion she is bred to through the profile score of the foal from that mating.

● Shows if the foal has the potential to be a quality stakes horse or classic champion.

● Shows horse owners how their entire herd of bloodstock can be upgraded by using the profile score to help them make the best breeding decisions resulting in less overbreeding and fewer potential equine welfare issues.


SALES, AUCTION

● The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is a valuable Thoroughbred sales analytical tool that shows buyers at auction how make the best decisions and investments when buying horses.

● Shows buyers at auction how to save on their time and monetary investments by helping them to zero in on the horses that have the best potential to become graded stakes winners or a Classic Champion Thoroughbred.


RACING, HANDICAPPING

● The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® shows handicappers, horse owners and trainers which horses have the best potential to be a top-quality stakes winner or a classic winner of races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

● Shows horse owners and trainers the best race distance that their horse will have the most success, be it in sprint racing, middle distance or routing, and can help them spot their horses in those races.


If you are planning to breed, or purchase horses at auction, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need to take the guesswork out of breeding and buying champion racehorses. The profile will give you the important information necessary to make the best decisions and investments when breeding or buying horses at auction.
If you are racing horses, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® can help you spot them in races where they will have the most success.
For a free consultation, please contact us at our website contact page here.


Friday, October 6, 2017

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Keeneland Race Course Saturday where FREE DROP BILLY heads a herd of 13 young Thoroughbreds as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the 104th running of the $500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) stakes. Post time is 5:10 p.m. ET.
Free Drop Billy comes into this race for trainer Dale Romans with 1-2-0 record in three starts including a second-place finish in both Sanford Stakes (G3) and Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of the Hopeful:

FREE DROP BILLY five wide in pursuit down the backstretch from the tail of the field early on, advanced into the turn and was put to coaxing four wide three furlongs from home, swung five wide from the head of the stretch, rallied with good energy to threat in the late stages, had the aforementioned foe [SPORTING CHANCE] duck out safely in front, never lost any momentum as the rider kept on about his business unabashed by the leader and missed at the wire.

Free Drop Billy has come up short of victory in his last two sprint races. However, with an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s one of the best bred colts in this race and I think he will appreciate the stretch out in distance.
Union Rags, the sire of Free Drop Billy, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1), compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with $1,798,800 in earnings.
As a two year old, Union Rags won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and Champagne (G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) stakes.
At the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.
Free Drop Billy was a yearling (Hip 104) I liked in session one at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. It remains to be seen if he can earn classic honors, however, if he lives up to his breeding he could be a factor on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
LONE SAILOR (12-1) comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Tom Amoss including an 11-length maiden win last out over a muddy track at Saratoga. Here’ the video and chart call of that race:

LONE SAILOR tracked the pace on the outside, made a bid at the seven-sixteenths, vied in the three path on the turn, kicked clear into the stretch, drew away under the whip into the final sixteenth and was hand ridden to the wire while much the best.

Chasing fast fractions, Lone Sailor tracked the leader Mad Munnys then grabbed the lead in the far turn to pull away and break his maiden by an impressive 11 lengths. Lone Sailor also has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and should appreciate the stretch out in distance.
Majestic Warrior, the sire of Lone Sailor, compiled a 2-0-0 in seven starts during his racing career with $239,229 in earnings including a win in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and a fourth-place finish in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G2).
Currently Majestic Warrior stands stud in Japan and as a stallion he’s sired numerous graded stakes winners including: Princess of Sylmar, Best Warrior, Lady Sabelia, Declan's Warrior and Mavic.
Jockey Florent Geroux retains the mount on Lone Sailor who also has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for the pair to run a good race.
TEN CITY (10-1) is 2-0-2 in four starts for trainer Kenny McPeek with a win in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) and a third-place finish in both the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes and Iroquois Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of his finish in the Iroquois:

TEN CITY was unhurried on early on while wide, swung into the sixth path in the far turn, made a bid in the stretch and was slowly gaining in the late stages.

Ten City raced near the back of the herd until the far turn when he made his move, passing horse and making up ground, to get up for third-place 3¾ lengths shy of victory.
Run Away and Hide, the sire of Ten City, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old and showed promise of good things to come on the Derby trail winning the Kentucky Stakes (G3) and the Saratoga Special (G2) before he was retired with a career-ending injury while in training for the fall racing season.
As a stallion, Run Away and Hide has sired numerous graded stakes winners such as Are You Kidding Me, a multimillion dollar earner and Sovereign Award Champion Older Male (twice), Heaven’s Runway, Mico Margarita, Take It Like A Man, Forever Young, Run Away and Ten City to name a few.
Ten City has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
In his three previous starts, EZMOSH (6-1) has finished third, second and then first in his last race for trainer Brad Cox. Here’s the video and chart call:

EZMOSH disputed the pace along the inside, opened clear after a half, was kept to task and held sway.

Setting fast fractions, Ezmosh took a clear lead in the far turn to pull away and break his maiden by two lengths. Ezmosh has good speed and the final time of 1:35.82 is what I like to see in young colts on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Tizway, the sire of Ezmosh, was a multiple graded stakes winner that raced for five season compiling a 7-1-5 record in 20 starts with $1,359,274 in career earnings.
Tizway made only one start as a two year old. During his first two racing season, he ran in maiden special weight races, breaking his maiden in his sixth start running nine furlongs at Woodbine.
During his racing career, Tizway’s most notable stakes wins were in the Kelso Handicap (G2), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1). He finished third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G3), Metropolitan Handicap (G1), Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) and the Charles Town Classic Stakes (G3).
Tizway also has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but he has good speed and that could potentially carry him the distance in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Enticed (15-1) who is also cross entered in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and expected to scratch.


2017/2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Bold d’Oro, 10, Mick Ruis, $360,000
2. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $126,750
3. Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $68,500
4. Solomini, 4, Bob Baffert, $60,000
5. Ten City, 2, Kenny McPeek, $83,300
6. Take the One O One, 2, Brian Koriner, $36,345
7. Ayacara, 1, Keith Desormeaux, $18,000
8. Ebben, 1, Steve Margolis , $7875


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Happily, 10, Aidan O’Brien,
2. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $84,592
3. Roaring Lion (USA), 10, John Gosden, $75,986
4. Olmedo, 4, Jean-Claude Rouget,
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar, 2, Aidan O’Brien,
8. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
9. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
10. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
11. Woodmax, 1, Nicolas Clement,
12. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182

Champagne Stakes Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to the Empire State Saturday where GOOD MAGIC has been tabbed as the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite in the 146th running of the $500,000 Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. Post time is 4:13 p.m. ET. for the Champagne Stakes (G1) which is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Race.
There are several horses in this herd that recently broke their maiden and Good Magic, comes into this race off of a second-place finish in his maiden debut for trainer Chad Brown. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

GOOD MAGIC three wide in pursuit, advanced to latch on to the aforementioned foe [HAZIT] midway on the turn, came under coaxing five-sixteenths from home, continued three wide into upper stretch shaken off a bit straightened away, rallied to latch on once more a furlong out digging in under a drive but was ultimately repelled to the finish while clear of the rest for the place honors.

Good Magic looked good finishing second in his maiden debut and he has room to improve off that effort. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Good Magic is one of the better bred colts in this race.
Curlin, the sire of Good Magic, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two year old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Good Magic was a $1 million session four sale topper at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he was a yearling (Hip 845) on my sales list.
It remains to be seen if Good Magic can step up in class to win graded stakes honors. However, he has the breeding to be competitive and two recent bullet work outs since his last race could have him ready to take another big step forward.
I look for Good Magic to run a good race.
A long shot I like is STRONGER (15-1) who’s trained by Eric Guillot. He comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in two starts including an impressive maiden win at Gulfstream Park last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

STRONGER sat in god stalking position sitting outside the top trio, let out notch and steadily moved up closer reaching the leader at the quarter pole, matched strides turning for home then gave rival slip, pulled away to clear commanding lead and ridden out in deep stretch.

Stronger improved in the stretch out in distance and looked good breaking his maiden by 6½ lengths. But the time of 1:37.78 for the mile was slower than what I like and he’ll need to pick up the pace in order to earn graded stakes honors in the Champagne Stakes (G1).
Bodemeister, the sire of Stronger, did not race until the age of three when he made six starts for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert, compiling a 2-4-0 record in six starts with $1,304,800 in career earnings.
He raced twice in the maiden ranks before finishing second in his third start, the San Felipe Stakes (G2). In his fourth start, Baffert shipped Bodemeister to Oaklawn Park where he was my pick to win the Arkansas Derby (G1). Bodemeister trounced the field, winning by an outstanding 9½ lengths. He then went on to finish second in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1).
Stronger is the best bred colt in this race with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he was a yearling (Hip 4154) I liked at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. However, he was taken out of the sale.
Stronger appears to like the Belmont track and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to run a career best.
HONORABLE TREASURE (6-1) comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Kenny McPeek including an impressive win in a maiden race last out at Saratoga. Here’s the video and chart call:

HONORABLE TREASURE four then three wide in aim of the front, came under coaxing at the five-sixteenths upping the pressure on the leader, spun just off the inside for home taking over command, drew clear under a drive kept to task.

Honorable Treasure tracked just off the leader, chasing fast fractions, and pulled away with authority at the eighth pole to win by an impressive 6¼ lengths.
To Honor and Serve, the sire of Honorable Treasure, was a young colt I liked, along with my top pick Animal Kingdom, on the 2011 Kentucky Derby Trail.
In three racing seasons, To Honor and Serve was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled an 8-1-3 record in 17 starts with $1,798,840 in career earnings.
To Honor and Serve compiled a 3-1-0 record in four starts as a two year old with wins in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2).
As a three year old, he was 3-0-2 in seven starts with a win in the Pennsylvania Derby and (G2) and the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1).
At the age of four, To Honor and Serve won the Westchester Stakes (G3) and Woodward Stakes (G1).
Honorable Treasure has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and has room to improve in his third start of the season. I look for him to run a good race.
ENTICED (10-1) comes into this race off of a maiden debut win over a muddy track for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. Here’s the video and chart call:

ENTICED broke at the start, jostled with EGYPTIAN PRICE early, chased the pace on the outside, dropped back while climbing into the kickback mid-way down the backstretch, raced inside early on the turn,

When he initially encountered the kickback, Enticed dropped back five lengths off of the leaders but recovered nicely and made up ground to win “in hand” by 1¾ lengths at the finish.
Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of Enticed, was a good multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled an 8-7-0 record in 17 starts with $5,754,720 in career earnings. Overall, he had seven wins and five second-place finishes in 14 route races.
Medaglia d’Oro finished second in his only start as a two year old but as a three year old he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
In the Preakness Stakes (G1), Medaglia d’Oro finished eighth but rebounded from that run to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He went on to complete his racing season as a three year old with wins in the nine-furlong Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
As a four year old, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Strub Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1). In addition, he finished second in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
At the age of five, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Donn Handicap (G1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (G1).
Enticed has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and a recent bullet work out since his last race could have him ready to take another big step forward.
Honorable mention goes to HAZIT (4-1) who comes into this race off of a maiden win, defeating Good Magic by one length.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).



2017/2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Bold d’Oro, 10, Mick Ruis, $360,000
2. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $126,750
3. Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $68,500
4. Solomini, 4, Bob Baffert, $60,000
5. Ten City, 2, Kenny McPeek, $83,300
6. Take the One O One, 2, Brian Koriner, $36,345
7. Ayacara, 1, Keith Desormeaux, $18,000
8. Ebben, 1, Steve Margolis , $7875


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Happily, 10, Aidan O’Brien,
2. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $84,592
3. Roaring Lion (USA), 10, John Gosden, $75,986
4. Olmedo, 4, Jean-Claude Rouget,
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar, 2, Aidan O’Brien,
8. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
9. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
10. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
11. Woodmax, 1, Nicolas Clement,
12. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182