Friday, November 27, 2015

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

In addition to the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” will also take us this Saturday to the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs where Airoforce will go to the starting gate as the 3-1 morning-line favorite in what appears to be a wide-open, 89th running of the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Post time is 5:35 p.m. ET.
Airoforce comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in three starts, all on the turf, for trainer Mark Casse, including a win in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) and a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Here’s a look at the video and chart call of his last race:

AIROFORCE, in close entering the first turn, rated between rivals past the half mile marker, angled out progressing in mid-stretch, rallied between runners to be on near even terms in deep stretch and kept on gamely.

There are several horses that could vie for first place honors in this race and it remains to be seen if Airoforce can score the win. However, his breeding indicates that 8½ furlongs is well within his range of competitiveness.
Colonel John, the sire of Airoforce, was a very competitive colt that compiled a 2-2-0 record in four starts as a two year old including a first-place finish in the Real Quiet Stakes and a second-place finish in the CashCall Futurity Stakes (G1), both at 8½ furlongs.
As a three year old, Colonel John won the Sham Stakes (G3) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), both at nine furlongs, in route to a sixth-place finish in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He later went on to win the 10 furlong Travers Stakes and closed his three-year-old season with a 3-0-1 record in seven starts.
Regular jockey Julien Leparoux has ridden Airoforce in all three of his previous starts and I look for them to run another good race in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
Mor Spirit (7-2) ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert and he comes into this race with 1-1-0 record in two starts. Here’s the video and chart call of his maiden win:

MOR SPIRIT stalked the pace off the rail, bid three deep into the second turn and alongside the runner-up leaving that turn, took the lead nearing mid-stretch, inched away approaching the sixteenth pole and won clear under a moderate hand ride.

Mor Spirit ran comfortably in third until the three eighths pole, then gradually moved up to take the lead and cantered home to win by an impressive 4¼ lengths. Despite his stalking trip, Mor Spirit appeared to be in control throughout the race and the ease of his win suggests that he may be very competitive in this race.
Eskendereya, the sire of Mor Spirit, was my 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite until an injury took him off the trail. During his career, Eskendereya compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts which culminated in a 9¾ length win in the 2010 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).
Other key stakes wins included the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Pilgrim Stakes.
Mo Tom (8-1) has compiled a 2-0-1 record in three starts and he comes into this race off of a one length win in the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on November 1. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

MO TOM was unhurried early, fanned into the seven path in the turn, rallied into the lane, took over command in the stretch, drew clear and held sway in the final stages.

The finish time of 1:36.78 is what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail and his breeding indicates that he could be competitive in this race.
Uncle Mo, the sire of Mo Tom, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.
As a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.  
Jockey Corey Lanerie returns to the irons and another move forward will make Mo Tom competitive in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
Other horses that could, perhaps, be competitive include Gun Runner (8-1), Perfect Saint (30-1) and Annual Report (5-1).


*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2015/2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
4. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
5. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
6. Cocked and Loaded, 10. Larry Rivelli, $280,840
7. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
8. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600
9. R Rated Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $78,200
10. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
11. Harlan Punch, 2, Tom Amoss, $138,000
12. Hollywood Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,000
13. Portfolio Manager, 2, Chad Brown, $50,000
14. Tizarunner, 2, Mark Casse, $44,948
15. Unbridled Outlaw, 2, Dale Romans, $14,100
16. Found Money, 1, Doug O’Neill, $129,000
17. Van Damme, 1, Robert Gorham, $31,290
18. Sail Ahoy, 1, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $25,000
18. Stickstatelydude, 1, Greg Burchell, $25,000
20. Rare Candy, 1, David Hofmans, $24,000
21. Conquest Windycity, 1, Mark Casse, $7,050

Remsen Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Empire State Saturday where Mohaymen will go to the starting gate as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 101st running of the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time is 1:50 ET.
Undefeated in two starts, Mohaymen comes into this race for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin off of a 1¾-length victory in the one mile Nashua Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on November 4. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

MOHAYMEN moved up into a contending position down the backstretch, departed it from the three path, pressed the issue as the widest of a trio on the turn, bid in earnest as the field headed into the stretch, came inward to meet and draw up shoulder to shoulder with MAGNA LIGHT in upper stretch, bested that one the rest of the way to the furlong marker to emerge as the new leader, drifted out somewhat in the last sixteenth, particularly after some left handed stick work, held off the second place finisher though, under a hand drive finishing the race.

The time of 1:36.01 is what I like to see in a young colt on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Mohaymen is a sire-line descendant of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has the breeding to be competitive in the Remsen Stakes (G2).
Tapit, the sire of Mohaymen, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Regular jockey Junior Alvarado returns to the irons and I look for the pair to be competitive in this race.
A mild long shot I like in this race is Sail Ahoy (6-1) who also ran in the Nashua and finished third, just two lengths shy of victory. Here’s his chart call:

SAIL AHOY devoid of early foot, picked up interest and proceeded to vacate the inside route leaving the five-sixteenths marker, swung three wide into the stretch and had a good finish down the outside to secure the show.
  
 Sail Ahoy comes into this race with a 1-0-2 record in four starts for trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey. With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he also has the breeding to be competitive and should like the stretch out to nine furlongs.
Bernardini, the sire of Sail Ahoy, did not race as a 2-year-old but at the age of three, he was a fast colt that won races from a mile to 10-furlongs.
He broke his maiden on his second start running a mile at Gulfstream Park in 1:35.57. That’s the kind of time I like to see a young colt run in a mile. Bernardini went on to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred, compiling a 6-1-0 record in eight starts with $3,060,480 in career earnings.
Notable races won by Bernardini in route to becoming the 2006 Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male include: Withers Stakes (G3, 8-furlongs), Preakness Stakes (G1, 9½-furlongs), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2, 8½ furlongs), Travers Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs), Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs) and he finished second, a length behind Invasor, winner of the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1, 10 furlongs).
Jockey Joel Rosario has ridden Sail Ahoy in all four of his previous starts and I look for them to run another good race in the Remsen Stakes (G2).
Another long shot I like is Donegal Moon (15-1) who comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 1-1-1 record in four starts. He’s stepping up in class and he’s yet to win a stakes race. However, he’s steadily improving and he broke his maiden in his last start. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

DONEGAL MOON set the pace early, angled off the rail into the far turn then drew away late in the stretch under a brisk drive.

Donegal Moon led from gate to wire and his finish time of 1:39.06 is slower than I like. However he also is sire-line descendant of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he should be competitive in this race.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Donegal Moon, made only two starts as a two year old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher and Malibu Mint.
Donegal Moon will have to improve his game to secure the win in the Remsen Stakes (G2) but I look for him to run a good race.
Honorable mention goes to Flexibility (3-1), Gift Box (4-1) and Ravenheart (30-1). They could, perhaps, be competitive but I’m not too keen on a win by either of them.


*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Remsen Stakes (G2) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2015/2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
4. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
5. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
6. Cocked and Loaded, 10. Larry Rivelli, $280,840
7. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
8. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600
9. R Rated Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $78,200
10. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
11. Harlan Punch, 2, Tom Amoss, $138,000
12. Hollywood Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,000
13. Portfolio Manager, 2, Chad Brown, $50,000
14. Tizarunner, 2, Mark Casse, $44,948
15. Unbridled Outlaw, 2, Dale Romans, $14,100
16. Found Money, 1, Doug O’Neill, $129,000
17. Van Damme, 1, Robert Gorham, $31,290
18. Sail Ahoy, 1, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $25,000
18. Stickstatelydude, 1, Greg Burchell, $25,000
20. Rare Candy, 1, David Hofmans, $24,000
21. Conquest Windycity, 1, Mark Casse, $7,050

Friday, November 20, 2015

Delta Downs Jackpot Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Vinton, Louisiana Saturday for the 13th running of the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) at Delta Downs racetrack. Exaggerator heads the field of 10 as the 2-1 morning line favorite. Post time is 5:15 ET.
Exaggerator comes into this race for trainer Kent Desormeaux with a 2-1-0 record in five starts and he’s the only horse in this race with the most experience in graded stakes company.
In August, Exaggerator was a three-quarter length winner in the Saratoga Special (G2). He followed that victory with a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Here’s a look at the video and chart call of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile:

EXAGGERATOR was bothered and forced out a bit early, quickly recovered and was well placed along the backstretch, shifted into the four path in the far turn, made a bid in the stretch but flattened out late in the drive.

Exaggerator has the class and breeding to be competitive in this race but it remains to be seen if he can live up to his favoritism and score a win for owner Big Chief Racing, LLC. With a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Exaggerator is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd.
Curlin, the sire of Exaggerator, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Regular jockey Kent Desormeaux returns to the irons and I look for them to run a good race.
A long shot I like in this race is Memories of Winter (10-1) who comes into this race for trainer Anthony Margotta, Jr. with a 2-0-0 record in two starts. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race at Laurel Park:

MEMORIES OF WINTER, close up down the backstretch, advanced three deep on the turn, gained command entering the stretch, drew off under brisk urging, drifted out near the eighth pole and drifted out near the sixteenth pole.

Memories of Winter won the mile race by 2¾ lengths in a time of 1:38.83 which is slower than what I like to see to see in a young colt on the Kentucky Derby Trail. However, with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has good breeding and the potential to improve in the third start of his season as a two year old.
Hard Spun, the sire of Memories of Winter, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old, including wins in the Port Penn Stakes and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. As a three year old on the Derby trail, Hard spun was 2-0-0 in three starts including wins in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Lane’s End Stakes (G2).
Hard Spun went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and rounded out his classic campaign with a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Whitmore (8-1) is another young horse that could, perhaps, be competitive in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). He’s stepping up in class and comes into this race off of a 7¼ length maiden win at Churchill Downs on November 6 for trainer Ron Moquett. Here’s the video and chart call of the race:

WHITMORE broke slowly, stalked the pace early, fanned into the five path in the turn, veered out a bit under left handed urging in the stretch and drew off late under a steady drive.

Whitmore showed good speed in that race and if he can carry speed to a route of ground, he has the breeding to be competitive.
Pleasantly Perfect, the sire of Whitmore, did not race as a two year old and only made one off-the-board start as a three year old. However, during his racing career, he was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 9-3-2 record in 18 starts with $7,789,880 in earnings.
His most notable wins were in the 2002 and 2003 Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap, (G2), 2003 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), 2004 San Antonio Handicap (G2), Dubai World Cup (G1) and Pacific Classic Stakes (G1).
 Found Money (6-1) is a fast colt that has compiled a 2-2-0 record in five starts for trainer Doug O’Neill. In his maiden debut win at Santa Anita Park, Found Money set a new track record of 50.89 for 4½ furlongs.
Since that win, Found Money won the Santa Anita Juvenile Stakes and finished off the board in the Best Pal Stakes (G2). He followed that with a second-place finish in both the I’m Smokin Stakes and the Golden State Juvenile Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

FOUND MONEY had speed between foes then dueled three deep, battled outside a rival into and on the turn, took a short lead in the stretch, was between foes in deep stretch and could not hold off the winner.

Found Money has yet to run in a route race, but his breeding indicates that he should be competitive at this distance.
Square Eddie, the sire of Found Money, initially raced in England but was trained by Doug O’Neill when he made his second start in America. He showed promise as a two year old, compiling a 2-2-1 record in six starts, including a win in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and a second-place finish in the Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
As a three year old, Square Eddie finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2) and third in the Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G3) before he was taken off the Derby trail with a shin injury.  
If Found Money improves off of his last race, he should be competitive in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3).
Honorable mention goes to Forevamo who has a win over this track in the Jean Lafitte Stakes.

*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2015/2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
3. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
4. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
5. Cocked and Loaded, 10. Larry Rivelli, $280,840
6. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
7. Exaggerator, 4, Keith Desormeaux, $340,000
8. R Rated Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $78,200
9. Sunny Ridge, 4, Jason Servis, $175,600
10. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
11. Hollywood Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,000
12. Portfolio Manager, 2, Chad Brown, $50,000
13. Tizarunner, 2, Mark Casse, $44,948
14. Unbridled Outlaw, 2, Dale Romans, $14,100
15. Van Damme, 1, Robert Gorham, $31,290
16. Sail Ahoy, 1, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $25,000
16. Stickstatelydude, 1, Greg Burchell, $25,000
18. Rare Candy, 1, David Hofmans, $24,000
19. Conquest Windycity, 1, Mark Casse, $7,050