Friday, February 22, 2013

Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup



An overflow field of 15 young Thoroughbreds has been drawn for Saturday’s 40th running of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds racetrack and it appears that several of them, depending on their level of development, could have the potential to step up and earn graded-stakes honors. Only 14 horses are eligible to enter the starting gate, but a recent post at the Downey Profile notes that Departing, Sunbean, and He’s Had Enough will be scratched from the race.

Trainer Chad Brown’s Normandy Invasion has been installed as the tepid 5-2 morning line favorite.  But, he hasn’t raced in over three months and he’s making his 3-year-old debut in what appears to be a contentious field. If Normandy Invasion repeats the form he displayed as a 2-year-old, he should be competitive but I’m not too keen on him for the win.

Trainer Steve Asmussen’s best hope for Derby glory this year could be, perhaps, Proud Strike who’s been tabbed with morning-line odds of 8-1. Proud Strike has been on my watch list since last fall. However, I did not mention him in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook because I could not find any videos of his previous races. In addition to pedigree, I always like to view videos of previous races to see if the horse has the will to win.

Nevertheless, I’ve been looking forward to see how Proud Strike would fare as a 3-year-old. And, I wasn’t disappointed he finally broke his maiden in his 3-year-old season debut at the Fair Grounds on January 12. The fractional splits and final time of 1:46.18 was not too impressive. But his Brisnet Pace Figures are a little above par for this race and his final speed figure of 98 is not too far off the mark.

Proud Strike has room to improve in his second start of the season and he picks up the services of veteran jockey Gary Stevens who came out retirement this year to resume racing. Stevens knows how to handle a young colt and he’s had his share of classic victories, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) three times in 1988, 1995 and 1997. He also won the Preakness Stakes (G1) twice in 1997 and 2001, and he’s a three-time winner of the Belmont Stakes (G1) with victories in 1995, 1998 and 2001.

Smart Strike, the sire of Proud Strike, has proven to be an outstanding sire of champions and classic champions. He sired the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Curlin and Lookin at Lucky and he’s the damsire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

In addition, Smart Strike is the sire of numerous Canadian Sovereign Award winners: Soaring Free, Portcullis, Added Edge, Eye of the Sphynx, Gold Strike; and Smart Strike is the sire of the American Eclipse Award winner English Channel.

The tail-female line of Proud Strike is pretty good, too, descending from the fifth dam and outstanding Matriarch of the Turf Gallorette. The tail-female line is also reinforced with the dual Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Pleasant Colony, The Minstrel, and Native Dancer.

If Proud Strike continues to move forward, he should be competitive in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

As the leading trainer with five horses in the Churchill Downs Leaderboard top 20, trainer Todd Pletcher ships Palace Malice (8-1) in from Gulfstream Park. He comes into the race with a second-place finish in his debut as a 3-year-old in a 7-furlong sprint over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park on January 19. His pace figures in that race are mostly above par and his final speed figure of 101 is right on the mark.

Palace Malice has yet to run in a route race. However, if he’s anything like his sire Curlin, a classic champion son of Smart Strike, or his damsire, Royal Anthem, an outstanding turf horse who did his best racing at 10-furlongs and further winning the Fairway Stakes, King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) and Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) in England as well as the Canadian International Stakes (G1), then, Palace Malice should run better as the races get longer.

A recent bullet workout on February 17 could have him ready to run a good race and I look for Palace Malice to be competitive.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, currently ranked second with four horses in the Churchill Downs top 20 leaderboard, ships in California invader Code West who looks like he could be competitive in the Risen Star. In five starts, Code West has never been out of the money and in his last race he finished second to Baffert’s other trainee Super Ninety Nine who recently won the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

Oxbow, trained by Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, already has a gate-to-wire win over this track in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) on January 19 and if he repeats the form of that race, he should be competitive in the Risen Star.



*****



As phase two of the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” kicks off this weekend, under the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Risen Star (G2) will receive 50 points while second-place will yield 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.

Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated February 19, 2013)



Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000

2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000

5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600

6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381

7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374

8 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000

9 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000

10 = Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000

11 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971

12 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500

13 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000

13 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000

15 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668

16 = He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000

17 = Fear The Kitten, 6, Mike Maker, $84,890

18 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017

19 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000
20 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated February 24, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Ive Struck a Nerve, 51, Keith Desormeaux, $268,000
2 = Orb, 50, Shug McGaughey III, $240,000
3 = Violence, 30, Todd Pletcher, $575,000
4 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
5 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000
6 = Code West, 20, Bob Baffert, $80,000
7 = Oxbow, 16, D. Wayne Lukas, $196,000
8 = Speak Logistics, 11, Eddie Pleasa, Jr., $52,500
9 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
10 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381
11 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
12 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
13 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
14 = Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000
15 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971
16 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500
17 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000
17 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000
19 = Palace Malice, 10, Todd Pletcher, $40,000
20 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668


Risen Star Stakes (G2), Fair Grounds, February 23, 2013
1. Ive Struck a Nerve, 50
2. Code West, 20
3. Palace Malice, 10
4. Oxbow, 5

Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Gulfstream Park, February 23, 2013
1. Orb, 50
2. Violence, 20
3. Speak Logistics, 10
4. Majestic Hussar, 5
 

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Fountain of Youth Stakes Racing Roundup



Derby fever rises a couple of degrees this Saturday and there could be several new additions to the Churchill Downs Leaderboard top 20 as phase two of the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” kicks off with the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds racetrack.
Under the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of both races will receive 50 points while second-place will yield 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Currently, trainer Todd Pletcher tops the leaderboard with five horses in the top 20. Trainer Bob Baffert is in second place with four horses in the top 20 (see top 20 list at the end of this blog).
Let’s take a look at the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Seeking to maintain his lead as top trainer, Pletcher will send Violence, who’s making his debut as a 3-year-old, to the starting gate as the prohibitive 9-5 morning-line favorite in the prestigious $400,000 graded-stakes race.
Violence was a horse I profiled in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook and I’ve been looking forward to see how he would fare as a 3-year-old. As a 2-year-old, Violence was undefeated in three starts including a 2-length win in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and a 1¼-length win in the CashCall Futurity Stakes (G1). My pick in the CashCall, Vilolence has a nice turn of foot and speed that I like to see in a young colt I believe may have classic potential.
Violence’s sire, Medaglia d’Oro, was a pretty good middle-distance runner with seven wins and five second-place finishes in 14 route races. He finished second in his only start as a 2-year-old but as a 3-year-old he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) en route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
Gone West, the damsire of Violence, also was a competitive middle-distance runner. As a 2-year-old, he won a 7-furlong maiden race at Belmont Park and finished the season with a 1-1-1 record in four starts.
 As a 3-year-old, Gone West won the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G2) and Withers Stakes (G2). He finished second in the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (G3) and finished third in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G3).
If Violence repeats his form as a 2-year-old, he’ll be competitive in the Fountain of Youth.
Another young colt I profiled in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook is Falling Sky who will go to the start gate tied with Majestic Hussar as the morning-line, third co-choice at 6-1 odds.
Falling Sky, leading from gate to wire in his debut as a 3-year-old, narrowly won the Sam F Davis Stakes (G3) by a neck over Speak Logistics (12-1) who is also entered in the Fountain of Youth.
His only loss as a 2-year-old came to Purple Egg in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on December 1 and he comes into the Fountain of Youth with a 3-0-0 in four starts. Falling Sky has room to improve in his second start of the season and he has the breeding to be competitive on the Derby trail.
Lion Heart, the sire of Falling Sky, was a tough competitor and good middle-distance horse that won the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and Hollywood Futurity (G1) as a 2-year-old. As a 3-year-old, Lion Heart finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) en route to a second-place finish to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
The tail-female line of Falling Sky is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Sea Hero, Roberto and Bold Ruler. Slew City Slew, the sire of Falling Sky’s second dam, was not a classic champion, but he was a tough competitor that compiled am 11-8-2 record in 32 route races and earned over $1.1 million during his racing career.
If Falling Sky continues to move forward he should be competitive in the Fountain of Youth.
Honorable mention goes to long shots Speak Logistics and Elmutahid (20).
In his last race, Speak Logistics was taken up in the stretch drive of the Sam F. Davis Stakes and finished a disappointing fourth. He gets a jockey switch to Joel Rosario and if he can get a clean trip, he could be competitive in the Fountain of Youth.
Elmutahid struggled as a 2-year-old but finally broke his maiden on his 3-year-old debut running 9-furlongs at Gulfstream Park on January 19. Elmutahid is stepping up in class and he has room to improve in his second start of the season. Ekmutahid has the breeding to be competitive and if he looks good in the post parade, he may be worthy of a small wager.

*****

Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:


Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated February 19, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000
3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000
4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000
5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381
7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
8 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
9 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
10 = Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000
11 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971
12 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500
13 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000
13 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000
15 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668
16 = He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000
17 = Fear The Kitten, 6, Mike Maker, $84,890
18 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017
19 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000
20 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000

Monday, February 18, 2013

Southwest Stakes Racing Roundup



Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has had good fortune shipping his horses from California to compete in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. He’s won three of the last four Southwest Stakes and today, Baffert will send Super Ninety Nine to the starting gate as the 7-5 morning line favorite in the 48th running of the prestigious $300,000 graded-stakes race.

Super Ninety Nine comes into the Southwest off of an impressive 3¼-length win going a mile at Santa Anita Park on January 31. He earned a 103 Brisnet Speed Figure for that performance and his final time of 1:35.11 is in the time zone of what I like to see in a young colt that may have potential to be competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

With Pulpit as the sire and Unbridled’s Song as the damsire of Super Ninety Nine, he should be able to stretch out to 8½-furlongs and I look for him to be competitive in the Southwest Stakes (G3).

The young colt I’m most intrigued with in this race is Big Lute (6-1) who comes into the Southwest off of an impressive 4¾-length maiden debut romp in a 6-furlong sprint at Oaklawn Park on February 1.

It’s a big step in class for this young son of Midnight Lute and it’s too early to tell if he can be competitive on the Derby trail. But, the professional manner Big Lute displayed in his debut, and the ease in which he pulled away from his competition, hinted at the possibility more good things to come.

And Big Lute has the breeding to be a very good runner. Both he and his sire Midnight Lute are bred on the same nick of Fappiano over Deputy Minister.

Midnight Lute, was a tough racehorse and multiple graded-stakes winner that competed mostly in sprint races, compiling a 6-3-1 record in 13 starts. Real Quiet, the grandsire of Big Lute, won the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Belmont Stakes (G1) as a 3-year-old.

Deputy Minister, the damsire of Big Lute, was a tough competitor winning eight of nine starts as a 2-year-old and he was selected as the 1981 Canadian Horse of the Year and 2-year-old champion in Canada and the United States. As a sire, Deputy Minister sired the Canadian Classic Champion Awesome Again. As a damsire, Deputy Minister mares produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Rags to Riches and Jazil.

Palace Music, the sire of Big Lute’s second dam, was a multiple group and graded-stakes winner in the United Kingdom, France and America and as a sire he sired the outstanding champion Cigar.

Advocator, the sire of Big Lute’s third dam, was a tough competitor who competed in 46 races during his career, compiling a 5-4-10 record in 19 stakes races. As a 3-year-old, Advocator was a second-place finisher in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1), and he finished third in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Recently, Midnight Lute has received some buzz as a hot sire and his runners are just now beginning to have an impact. It remains to be seen how Big Lute will fare as a 3-year-old. But, since his impressive debut win, a recent bullet workout could have Big Lute ready to run a good race.

Another longshot I like in this race is Channel Isle (15-1). He’s trained by Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas who will also send the Smarty Jones Stakes hero Will Take Charge to the starting gate in the Southwest as the 5-1 morning line third-choice.

Channel Isle comes into the Southwest with a 2-1-1 record in seven starts. In his debut as a 3-year-old in a one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park, Channel Isle trailed in sixth-place at the three-quarter pole but made a nice rally in the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length.

Channel Isle is bred to run better as the races get longer. His sire, English Channel was a multiple graded-stakes winner and good middle-distance runner who compiled a 13-4-1 record in 22 starts on the turf. The tail-female line of Channel Isle is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Linamix and Shirley Heights.

If Channel Isle repeats the form of his last race, I look for him to be closing fast down the lane in today’s race.

Always in a Tiz , the 4-1 morning line second-choice, has never been out of the money in his last three starts and he comes into today’s race with a narrow loss by a neck in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on January 21.

 Tiznow, the sire of Always in a Tiz, was an outstanding runner who compiled an 8-4-2 record in 14 dirt route races and as a 3-year-old he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes (G1), Super Derby (G1), Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and the Affirmed Handicap (G3).

Elusive Quality, the damsire of Always in a Tiz, competed mostly in sprint races compiling a 5-2-2 record in 12 starts including a win in the Jaipur Handicap (G3) and Poker Stakes (G3). He also was equally talented in route racing compiling a 2-1-0 record in four starts.

Elusive Quality is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Smarty Jones and stakes champions Raven’s Pass, Quality Road and Maryfield.

In his last race, Always in a Tiz was closing fast in the Smarty Jones Stakes and with the added distance of ground in today’s race I look for him to be competitive.



*****



Under the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Southwest Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points while second-place will yield 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.

None of the top four finishers of the El Camino Real Derby were nominated for the Kentucky Derby so there were no changes in the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” Leaderboard top 20. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated February 2, 2013)



Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000

2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000

5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600

6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381

7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374

8 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000

9 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000

10 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $151,771

11 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500

12 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000

12 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000

14 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668

15 = He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000

16 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017

17 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000

18 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000

19 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill, $210,000

19 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham, $210,000



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated February 19, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000
3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000
4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000
5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381
7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
8 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
9 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
10 = Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000
11 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971
12 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500
13 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000
13 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000
15 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668
16 = He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000
17 = Fear The Kitten, 6, Mike Maker, $84,890
18 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017
19 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000
20 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000

Southwest Stakes (G3), Oaklawn Park, February 18, 2013
1. Super Ninety Nine, 10
2. Fear The Kitten, 4
3. Heaven’s Runway, 2
4. Channel Isle, 1