By
Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The classic trail
to the second jewel of the Triple Crown takes us this Saturday to Pimlico Racecourse
in Baltimore, Maryland, where IMPROBABLE tagged as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 144th
running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1). Post time is 6:48 ET.
Knowing
as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a
classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research
and study led to the creation of the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which is an analytical tool that measures the
breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The profile is breeding, sales
and racing analysis tool used to measure
the graded stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
In
addition to the profile, we have also created a Behavior Index which allows us to identify legitimate
and false race contenders and thus move some horses up or down in ranking.
Let’s
look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in Kentucky Derby 145.
As
you can see in the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, five of the horses entered in this race
have a grade ranking of A or better and three have a ranking of B.
In
the second chart, the Behavior Index has been applied to five horses
highlighted in red allowing us to move horses up or down in ranking. In regard
to handicapping, if you think that any of the top four horses in the first
chart are false contenders, then they could be moved down in ranking and horses
like Improbable and Anothertwistafate in the second chart could be moved up in
raking.
Let’s
look at the morning line favorite as well as others that I like in this race.
IMPROBABLE comes into this race with a 3-2-0
record in six starts for trainer Bob Baffert including a fifth-place finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1). Improbable was placed fourth on the disqualification of
Maximum Security. Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
IMPROBABLE went
along in striking range covered up in the two path, idled through the far turn in
traffic losing some position, shifted out in the drive and offered some mild
response.
In
our Kentucky Derby analysis,
we had Improbable ranked sixth and he finished fifth.
City Zip,
the sire of Improbable, ran mostly in sprint races, compiling a 9-5-4 record in
31 starts with $818,225 in career earnings.
As a two year old, City Zip won
the Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2), Saratoga Special (G2) and the
Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, as a three year old on the 2001 Kentucky Derby
Trail, his best finish was a third place to Songandaprayer
in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1).
Despite his propensity for
sprinting, at stud City Zip has sired his share of numerous, good, sprinters as
well as several middle-distance runners such as Collected,
Get
Serious, Alert Bay,
Acting
Zippy, Dayatthespa,
With
a City, Unzip Me,
City
to City, Workin for
Hops and Personal Diary.
Improbable
has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and his
Behavior Index indicates that he will be competitive in this field. I look for
him to run a good race.
WAR OF WILL (4-1) comes into this race with
a 3-1-1 record in nine starts including an eighth-place finish in the Kentucky
Derby (G1). Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
WAR OF WILL found a
good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along
reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY
leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE
TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three path into upper
stretch and weakened.
War
of Will was running well but lost his momentum when Maximum Security moved out
and nearly collided with him.
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a
graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet
Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a
final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints
where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and second-place
finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went on as a
three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor,
a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2)
and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War Front’s lifetime top runners
include: Lines
of Battle, Departing,
Declaration
of War, Warning
Flag, Lancaster
Bomber, Summer Front,
War
Dancer, Roly Poly,
Avenge,
Jack
Milton, Air Force
Blue, Data Link
and Hit
it a Bomb.
War
of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and his
profile makes him a legitimate contender.
BOURBON WAR (12-1) comes into this race with
a 2-1-0 record in five starts for trainer Mark Henning including a fourth-place
finish in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
BOURBON WAR was
unhurried early in the two path, raced three then four wide around the far turn,
and improved position without a solid bid.
Bourbon War looked good and
appeared to be poised for at least a placing, of not victory, in classic
competition.
Tapit,
the sire of Bourbon War, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a
3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was
undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for
much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial
Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous
graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit
(2017), Creator
(2016) and Tonalist
(2014).
Bourbon
War has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s much better than
his fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1) indicates. I look for him to
run a good race.
I
think that three horses mentioned above are solid competitors. Other horses
that could be factors in the bottom of the exotics are Anothertwistafate, Bodexpress, Alwaysmining and Laughing Fox.
