This
Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs,
Arkansas, where the final prep race worth 100 points to the victor will be ran
at Oaklawn Park. A field of eleven Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 83rd
running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) with IMPROBABLE tagged as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Post time is 7:43 ET.
Improbable
comes into this race with a 3-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Bob Baffert
including a second-place finish last out in Division I of the Rebel Stakes
(G2). Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
IMPROBABLE stalked
the pace in the five path, bid at the three-eighths pole, was clear in the stretch
and caught at the wire.
Improbable
took the lead at the top of the stretch but came up a neck shy of victory to a
fast closing Long Range Toddy.
City Zip,
the sire of Improbable, ran mostly in sprint races, compiling a 9-5-4 record in
31 starts with $818,225 in career earnings.
As a two year old, City Zip won
the Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2), Saratoga Special (G2) and the
Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, as a three year old on the 2001 Kentucky Derby
Trail, his best finish was a third place to Songandaprayer
in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1).
Despite his propensity for
sprinting, at stud City Zip has sired his share of numerous, good, sprinters as
well as several middle-distance runners such as Collected, Get Serious, Alert Bay, Acting Zippy,
Dayatthespa,
With
a City, Unzip Me, City to City, Workin for
Hops
and Personal
Diary.
Improbable
has a B Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this field. However,
I’m not too keen on him for the win.
A
long shot I like is COUNTRY HOUSE (12-1). He comes into this race
with a 1-2-0 record in five starts for trainer Bill Mott including a
fourth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out. Here’s the video
and chart call of that race:
COUNTRY HOUSE broke
a step slow, went four wide on the first turn, settled on the outside, was
urged along midway down the backstretch, advanced six wide under urging on the
far turn, chased under the whip into upper stretch and tired.
Country
House could not close the gap to claim victory but finished a respectable fourth
in his stretch out to nine furlongs.
Lookin at
Lucky,
the sire of Country House, was a multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a
9-1-1 record in 13 starts with $3,307,278 in career earnings.
Undefeated in four starts, Lookin
at Lucky scored impressive stakes victories as a two year old in the Best Pal
Stakes (G2), Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Norfolk Stakes (G1), before suffering
his first loss
by a neck to Vale
of York in the 2009 Grey Goose Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). He came back from that loss to close the season with
a win in the CashCall Futurity Stakes (G1).
As a three year old, Lookin at
Lucky won the Rebel Stakes (G2) and he finished third in the Santa Anita Derby
(G1) en route to a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Lookin at
Lucky went on to earn Classic Champion Thoroughbred honors with a three-quarter
length victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Country House has a B Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s a yearling
(Hip 2203) we
profiled at the 2017 Keeneland September sale. However, the only yearlings I
mentioned in my blog post were ones with an A+ or A grade
ranking.
Country House is an improving
colt and I look for him to take another step forward in his third start of the
season.
OMAHA BEACH (2-1) comes into this race with
a 2-3-1 record in six starts for trainer Richard Mandella including a win in Division
II of the Rebel Stakes (G2). Here’s the video
and chart
call of that division:
OMAHA BEACH broke
sharply, raced in touch with the leaders three deep into the first turn
attending to the pace, pressed the issue midway through the backstretch to gain
a narrow advantage, went clear leaving the far turn under some prompting, then
gamely held the challenge of GAME WINNER to the end under hand urging and some
left handed pressure despite being bumped approaching the wire.
War Front looked good in the stretch out to 8½
furlongs to win his first graded stakes race and upset Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner
and Eclipse Two Year Old Champion Colt, Game Winner.
War
Front, the sire
of Omaha Beach, was a graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a
final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints
where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At
stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and
second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went
on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He
also sired The Factor, a speedy colt who as a
two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) and went on as a
three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War
Front’s lifetime top runners include: Lines of Battle, Departing, Declaration of War, Warning Flag, Lancaster Bomber, Summer
Front, War
Dancer, Roly
Poly, Avenge, Jack
Milton, Air Force Blue, Data
Link and Hit it a Bomb.
Omaha
Beach has an D Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior
Index makes him potentially competitive in this race.
LONG RANGE TODDY (5-1) comes into this race for
trainer Steve Asmussen with a 4-1-1 record in seven starts including a narrow
win in Division I of the Rebel Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
LONG RANGE TODDY dueled
early, settled off the pace inside, angled four wide at the quarter pole, rallied
at the eighth pole and was up in time under steady handling.
Long
Range Toddy settled just off the leaders and made a huge move in the stretch to
run down Improbable and claim victory by a neck.
Take Charge
Indy, the sire of Long Range Toddy,
was a multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 3-4-2 record in 14 starts
with $1,103,496 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Take Charge
Indy was 1-1-0 in four starts with a second-place finish in the Arlington-Washington
Futurity (G3).
At the age of three, Take Charge
Indy won the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a nineteenth-place finish in the
Kentucky Derby (G1). He went to the finish the season with a third-place finish
in the Fayette Stakes (G3) and a second-place finish in the Clark Handicap
(G1).
Take Charge Indy made five starts
as a four year old with a win in the Alysheba Stakes (G2), a second-place
finish in the Skip Away Stakes (G3) and a third-place finish in the Donn
Handicap (G1).
Long
Range Toddy has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile and I look for him to
be competitive.
*****
A
total of 35 prep races comprise the USA Road to the Kentucky Derby. In
addition, there are seven races on the European road and four races on the
Japan road to Derby glory.
2019 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Tacitus, 150, Bill Mott, $610,000
2. Vekoma, 110, George Weaver, $747,600
3. Plus Que Parfait, 104, Brendan Walsh, $1,540,400
4. Roadster, 100, Bob Baffert, $636,000
5. By My Standards,
100, Bret Calhoun, $600,000
6. Maximum
Security, 100, Jason Servis, $582,800
7. Game Winner, 85,
Bob Baffert, $1,810,000
8. Code
of Honor, 74, Shug McGaughey, $432,070
9. Haikal, 50, Kiaran McLaughlin, $247,500
10. War
of Will, 60, Mark Casse, $440,840
11. Long Range Toddy, 53.5, Steve Asmussen, $830,000
12. Taxs, 52, Danny Gargan, $307,500
13. Cutting Humor, $50, Todd Pletcher, $462,467
14. Win Win Win, 50, Mike Trombetta, $462,467
15. Gray Magician, 41, Peter Miller, $526,000
16. Spinoff, 40, Todd Pletcher, $224,000
17. Bodexpress, 40, Gustavo Delgado, $188,000
18. Signalman, 38, Ken McPeek, $496,840
Japan Road to Kentucky Derby
19. Master Fencer, 19, Koichi Tsunoda $234,392
European Road to Kentucky Derby
20. Bye Bye Hong Kong, 30, Andrew Balding, $16,792
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