By
Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
(As of the posting of
this blog, Tacitus and Improbable are the current co-favorites at 9-2. Maximum Security is 5-1, Game Winner is 6-1 and Roadster is 8-1. Tax is 44-1 and War
of Will is 18-1).
For
the past eight months, we’ve travelled down the Road to the Kentucky Derby which, now, brings us to
Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky where this Saturday a field of 19 young
Thoroughbreds will enter the starting gate in Kentucky Derby 145.
On
Thursday, the morning-line favorite, Omaha Beach, was scratched from running due
to an entrapped epiglottis and Haikal was also scratched on Friday due
to a foot abscess.
Knowing
as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a
classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research
and study led to the creation of the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile®
which is an analytical tool that measures
the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The profile is breeding, sales
and racing analysis tool used to measure
the graded stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
In
addition to the profile, we have also created a Behavior Index which allows us to identify legitimate
and false race contenders and thus move some horses up or down in ranking.
Let’s
look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in Kentucky Derby 145.
As
you can see in the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, eight of the horses entered in this race
have a grade ranking of A or better and four have a ranking of B.
In
the second chart, the Behavior Index has been applied to six horses
highlighted in red allowing us to move horses up or down in ranking. In regard
to handicapping, if you think that any of the top four horses are false
contenders, then they would be moved down in ranking and horses like Improbable
and Game Winner could be moved up in raking.
Let’s
look at the morning line favorite as well as others that I like in this race.
GAME WINNER (9-2), with the scratch of Omaha
Beach, has now been tabbed the morning-line favorite by
odds maker Mike Battaglia.
Game
Winner comes into this race with a 4-2-0 record in six starts for Hall of Fame
Trainer Bob Baffert including a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby
(G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
GAME WINNER four
wide into the first turn, stalked outside then bid four wide on the backstretch
and into the second turn, battled three deep into the stretch, drifted in some
in mid-stretch, fought back between horses, put a head in front a sixteenth out
and could not quite hold off the winner.
Game
winner travelled wide throughout the race and still finished a respectable
second just one half length shy of victory.
Candy Ride, the sire of Game Winner, was bred in Argentina and
during his racing career he was undefeated in six starts.
In his maiden
debut as a three year old, Candy Ride won the Premio El Quimico, a six furlong
sprint, by 12 lengths. He went on to finish the season with a win in the one
mile Gran Premio San Isidro (G1) by eight lengths and another win by eight
lengths in the one mile Joaquin S de Anchorena (G1).
As a four year
old, Candy Ride was shipped to America where won his U.S. debut in an 8 ½
furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Hollywood Park on June 7, 2003. A
month later, he ran on the turf winning the 9 furlong American Handicap (G2)
and in August, Candy Ride was able to carry his speed to a 3¼-length victory in
the 10 furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) in a record time of 1:59.11.
As a stallion,
Candy Ride’s top ten lifetime performers include Gun Runner, Shared Belief, Game Winner, Misremembered, Sidney’s Candy, Leofric, Twirling Candy, Ascend and Capt. Candyman
Can.
Game Winner has
a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and but his Behavior Index potentially makes him
competitive in this race.
TACITUS (8-1) comes into this race with
a 3-0-0 record in four starts for trainer Bill Mott including a win in the Wood
Memorial Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
TACITUS bumped
soundly in the shadow of the starting gate due to pressure originating from
JOVEIA, became rank on the bit approaching the end of the homestretch, got
clipped from behind by OVERDELIVER, himself somewhat unsettled at the time,
settled into stride soon afterwards and took up the chase at or near the two
path all the way to the quarter pole, got cued up angling approximately four
wide into the lane, became locked up in an one on one contest with TAX, briefly
went shoulder to should with that foe to and then poking a head down in front
deep into the furlong grounds, came inward in a steadfast fashion in the last
eighth, leading the runner up to move closer to the rail too, got the job done
and edged away.
Tacitus
looked good overcoming adversity and a tough stretch duel to win his second
start of the season by 1¼ lengths.
Tapit, the sire of Tacitus, was a
multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with
$557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont
Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
Tacitus has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the
best-bred horse in this herd of runners. Tacitus is an improving colt and I
look for him to take another step forward in the stretch out to 10 furlongs.
TAX (20-1) comes into this race with
a 2-2-1 record in five starts including a second-place finish in the win in the
Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
TAX unscathed
during the opening stages of the race, went about towards path two travelling
on the first turn, was patiently ridden keeping watch on the duelers, tipped to
the outside prior to stepping off the backstretch positioned now in path three,
began to close the gap when let out a notch at the three-eighths pole, was on
the cusp of taking charge stepping into the lane, with TACITUS also looming
bolding one path farther to the outside, rubbed shoulder with that foe as that
opponent forged to the front during a spirited tussell, fell back slowly but
steadily, shifting inward same as the winner did in the last eighth, until in tight
very late, finally crossing the wire in hand.
Tax
looked good in his second start of the season to finish a respectable second to
a formidable competitor, Tacitus.
Arch, the sire of Tax, was a multiple
graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969
in career earnings.
Arch
made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at
Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at
Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including
wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders'
Cup Stakes (G3).
Arch
passed away in 2016 and as a stallion, his best runners include: Instilled Regard, Nyaleti, Arklow, Blame, Grand
Arch, Arravale, Hymn
Book, Art
Trader, Les
Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine
Island.
I
like what turf writer Steve Haskin noted in his Derby Dozen blog that Tax is the only horse to run three straight
triple-digit Brisnet Speed Figures making him the fastest horse on the Derby
trail.
Tax
has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and he
definitely has the breeding too win this race. I look for him to run another
good race.
WAR OF WILL (15-1) comes into this race with
a 3-1-1 record in eight starts including a ninth-place finish in the Louisiana
Derby (G2). War of Will stumbled out of the gate and trainer Mark Casse said he pulled a muscle. Here’s the video and chart call of the race:
WAR OF WILL lost
his footing in the hindquarters after the start, went four then three wide on
the first turn, settled near the middle of the field, moved closer midway down
the backstretch, was roused three wide on the far turn, spun four wide into the
stretch and also failed to respond.
War
of Will is much better than what he showed in this race and it’s a complete
throwout for me.
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a
graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet
Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a
final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints
where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and
second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went
on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor,
a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2)
and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War Front’s lifetime top runners
include: Lines
of Battle, Departing,
Declaration
of War, Warning
Flag, Lancaster
Bomber, Summer Front,
War
Dancer, Roly Poly,
Avenge,
Jack
Milton, Air Force
Blue, Data Link
and Hit
it a Bomb.
War
of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and his
profile makes him a legitimate
contender. He’s been training well since his last race and three straight
bullet work outs could have him ready to run a good race.
Honorable
mention goes to Spinoff (30-1), Cutting Humor (30-1), Country House (30-1), Code of Honor (12-1), Improbable (5-1) and Roadster (5-1).
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