Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Outcome of Kentucky Derby 144

Tabbed 2016 Keeneland Sales Graduates, Kentucky Derby Qualifiers Good Magic, Vino Rosso, Solomini And Free Drop Billy

By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

For the past eight months, we’ve travelled down the Road to the Kentucky Derby which, now, brings us to Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky where this Saturday a field of 20 young Thoroughbreds will enter the starting gate in Kentucky Derby 144.

This year’s Derby has shaped up to be very special for me and my brother, Dallas. At the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, out of 2,334 yearling colts, we profiled 101 that had an A or A+ grade ranking and from that sales list four horses have qualified for the Kentucky Derby: Good Magic (Hip 845), Vino Rosso (Hip 528), Solomini (Hip 662) and Free Drop Billy (Hip 104).

We also have from that sales list graded stakes winner Archaggelos (Hip 2138) and the graded stakes-placed Hollywood Star (Hip 395). Stakes-placed colts are: Wentz (Hip 1029), Stronger (Hip 4154) and Tigerbeach (Hip 2001).

Let’s look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in Kentucky Derby 144.

Knowing as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®  which is an analytical tool that measures the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. And, I use it to measure the graded stakes and classic potential of young horses.

In 2014, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® was developed into a software program by my brother, Dallas, and it assigns each horse a numerical score and grade ranking which is the indicator of that horse’s potential. The higher the score, the more potential that horse has to become a quality stakes horse or classic champion.

As you can see in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, 12 of the horses entered in this race have a grade ranking of B and above making this one of the best Kentucky Derby fields in recent memory.

In the first chart, Solomini is ranked first with an A+ profile and Hofburg is ranked second with an A+ profile. Good Magic is ranked third, Free Drop Billy is ranked fourth and My Boy Jack is ranked fifth and they all have an A profile ranking.

In addition to the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move horses up or down in ranking. Some horses like Justify (C), Mendelssohn (D) and Audible (G) can be moved up in raking because their Behavior Index makes them competitive, enabling them to win races that are shorter than the classic 10-furlong distance.

For example, in my blog about the nine-furlong 2016 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), I noted that Outwork, who has an E grade rating, was a horse I liked because his Behavior Index showed me he had the potential to be competitive at that distance. Indeed, Outwork went on to win the Wood, however, in the Kentucky Derby (G1) his grade ranking had him ranked sixteenth and he finished fourteenth.

In addition to moving some horses up, the Behavior Index can also move down horses like Solomini (A+), Free Drop Billy (A), Hofburg (A+), Magnum Moon (A), My Boy Jack (A) and Lone Sailor (A).

When horses are moved down in ranking because they fail to run close to their profile score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full potential needs to be investigated. And there can be many contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.

All the horses listed in upper case the Behavior Index chart have had the Behavior Index variable factored into their grade ranking, and, knowing how to apply that variable is crucial. For example, one potential chart has Mendelssohn ranked in the top four while another chart has Justify out of the top four.

This is one of the best Derby fields in some time and Dallas and I will be rooting for the horses we picked at the 2016 Keeneland Yearling Sale. In addition, other horses that could, perhaps, be a factor in Kentucky Derby 144 are Justify, Hofburg, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Audible and My Boy Jack. Of those, I like Justify, Hofburg and Mendelssohn best.

Of our four horses, Good Magic and Vino Rosso appear to solid while Solomini and Free Drop Billy will need to pick up their game some. And, they have the potential to improve in the stretch out to ten furlongs.

Let’s look at our 2016 sales picks:

GOOD MAGIC (12-1) comes into this race for trainer Chad Brown with a 2-2-1 record in five starts including a win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

GOOD MAGIC came out at the start, was well placed early on along the five path, shifted into the four path entering the lane while making a bid, swiftly took command in the stretch while driven clear and held sway at the wire.

Good Magic took another step forward off his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) to win his final prep race by 1½ lengths.

A chestnut colt by Curlin out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, Good Magic has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he was one of my top picks (Hip 845) at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Good Magic’s sire, Curlin, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.

Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.

In his first five crops as a stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator. In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Ride On Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice (third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).

It’s been exciting to watch the development of Good Magic on the Derby trail and, since his last race, he’s been training well.

Good Magic is primed to take another big step forward in his third start of the season and I like him for the win.

VINO ROSSO (12-1) comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in five starts including a win in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

VINO ROSSO took up position in mid-pack after the start, went about the first turn from the three path, got maneuvered into the fourth one during the journey on the backstretch, scurried into the contention with a four wide run on the far turn, closing with gusto on the runaway leader, moved temporarily into the five path, zooming by that rival in tandem with the second place finisher, at the five-sixteenths pole, was still directly abreast of ENTICED as they hit the top of the lane, but back into the path four, began to come in after the rider switched over to a strong hand ride, intimidated the nemesis into moving closer to the rail, rider still asking his mount for run all the while, bumped solidly two times in rapid succession with the runner up during the run leading up to and then through the furlong grounds, held an even course thereafter, put away ENTICED coming up to the sixteenth pole and drew clear.

Vino Rosso showed a lot of grit in his duel with Enticed in the stretch run to pull away and win by three lengths.

Curlin, the sire of Vino Rosso, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.

Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.

In his first five crops as a stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator. In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Ride On Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice (third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).

Vino Rosso is a colt we profiled as a yearling (Hip 528) at the 2016 Keeneland September sale. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has the breeding to be competitive in the stretch out to ten furlongs and a recent bullet work could have him ready to run his best race yet.

SOLOMINI (30-1) is 1-3-2 in six starts and he comes into this race off a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SOLOMINI stalked the pace in the four path, bid at the quarter pole but faltered in the stretch.

Solomini ran wide throughout the entire race and narrowly lost second-place honors by a neck to Quip.

Curlin, the sire of Solomini, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.

Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.

In six starts, Solomini has never been out of the money but he’s yet to earn graded stakes honors. Last Fall, he finished first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) but was disqualified to third. I thought his disqualification wasn’t justified but that exemplifies his lack of good fortune despite his success.

With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Solomini was a yearling (Hip 662) we profiled in session four at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he’s is the best-bred colt in this herd.

He’s been training good and a recent bullet work should have him primed to run another good race. Solomini should like the stretch out to ten furlongs and if he puts it together he has the breeding to be in the top four and, perhaps, upset at a nice price.

Owned by Albaugh Family Stables, LLC and trained by Dale Romans, FREE DROP BILLY (30-1) comes into this race with a 2-3-2 record in eight starts including a fourth-place finish due to interference by in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

FREE DROP BILLY raced back early on from the five path, swung into the six path on the far turn, made a bid in the stretch but was bothered badly and altered near the sixteenth pole and flattened out late in the drive.

Free Drop Billy was advancing nicely in the stretch when Sporting Chance veered sharply to the right and interfered with his run. Free Drop Billy finished fourth but was placed third by the disqualification of Sporting Chance.

Union Rags, the sire of Free Drop Billy, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1), compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with $1,798,800 in earnings.

As a two-year-old, Union Rags won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and Champagne (G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) stakes.

At the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.

Free Drop Billy was a yearling (Hip 104) we profiled at the 2016 Keeneland September sale. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Free Drop Billy has good breeding but he has yet to reach his full potential.

Free Drop Billy should make a move forward in the stretch out to ten furlongs and a recent bullet work could have him primed to run his best race yet.

JUSTIFY is the 3-1 morning line favorite and he comes into this race off a win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call.

MENDELSSOHN is the 5-1 morning line second choice and he comes into this race off a win in the UAE Derby (G2). Here’s the video of that race.

HOFBURG (20-1) comes into this race off a second-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call.

*****

2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Magnum Moon, 150, Todd Pletcher, $1,140,000

2. +Good Magic, 134, Chad Brown, $1,838,400

3. Audible, 110, Todd Pletcher, $803,520

4. Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000

5. Vino Rosso, 107, Todd Pletcher, $572,500

6. Bolt d’Oro, 104, Mick Ruis, $980,000

7. Enticed, 103, Kiaran McLaughlin, $545,880

8. Mendelssohn, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299

9. Justify, 100, Bob Baffert, $600,000

10. Flameaway, 70, Mark Casse, $672,260

11. +Solomini, 54, Bob Baffert, $716,000

12. Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913

13. My Boy Jack, 52, Keith Desormeaux, $622,000

14. Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480

15. +Free Drop Billy, 44, Dale Romans, $597,200

16. Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347

17. Hofburg, 40, Bill Mott, $192,000

18. Firenze Fire, 39, Jason Servis, $647,500

19. Combatant, 32, Steve Asmussen, $350,000

20. Instilled Regard, 29, Jerry Hollendorfer, $246,000

+ = Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. McKinzie is off the Derby trail with and injury.

EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. *GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496

2. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299

3. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017

4. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807

5. Iconic Sunset (GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139

6. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648

7. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076

8. Court House (IRE), 8, John Gosden, $0

9. Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti, $21,854

10. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630

11. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505

12. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826

13. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074

14. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4, Andrew Balding, $1,800

15. Purser, 3, John Gosden, $19,215

16. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264

17. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981

18. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634

20. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904

          *Mendelssohn, Gronkowski, Threeandfourpence and Seahenge are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.

JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo Takahashi, $291,287

2. *RUGGERO (JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861

3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori Makiura, $299,689

4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935

5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $436,916

6. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696

7. Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586

8. Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981

9. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796

10. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920

11. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes.