©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights
reserved.
The classic trail
to Triple Crown glory takes us Saturday to Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore,
Maryland, where Kentucky Derby (G1) winner JUSTIFY will attempt to win the second jewel of the
crown as the prohibitive 1-2 morning-line favorite in the 143rd running
of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1).
Justify is the
deserving favorite and he’ll be tough to beat. He’s undefeated in his last four
starts with a combined win margin of 21½
lengths.
Here’s a look his Derby win via the Bloodhorse 2018 Kentucky Derby Race Sequence.
In addition to Justify,
Good Magic (3-1), Tenfold (20-1) and Lone
Sailor
(15-1) are horse I like in this race. Honorable mention goes to Quip (12-1) and Diamond King (30-1).
Knowing
as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a
classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research
and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® which is an analytical tool
that measures the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. And, I
use it to measure the graded stakes and classic potential of young horses.
In
2014, the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® was developed into a software program by my
brother, Dallas, and it assigns each horse a numerical score and grade ranking
which is the indicator of that horse’s potential. The higher the score, the
more potential that horse has to become a quality stakes horse or classic
champion.
At the 2016 Keeneland September sale, we
debuted our Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software as a sales
analytical tool and out of 2,334 yearling colts, we profiled 101 colts
that had an A or A+ grade ranking. From that sales list four horses ran in the
2018 Kentucky Derby:
Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt, Good
Magic (Hip 845), winner
of the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and Toyota Blue Grass
Stakes (G2) Vino Rosso (Hip 528),
winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), Free Drop Billy (Hip 104),
winner of the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity Stakes (G1), and the multiple
graded-stakes placed Solomini (Hip 662).
In addition, we also have from that 2016
sales list Archaggelos (Hip 2138),
winner of the Grey Stakes (G3), and the multiple graded stakes-placed Hollywood Star (Hip 395). Stakes-placed colts from
our list are: Wentz (Hip 1029), Stronger (Hip 4154) and Tigerbeach (Hip 2001).
As
you can see in the Preakness, the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above has Tenfold ranked first with an
A+ profile grade ranking while Good Magic and Lone Sailor have an A profile
grade ranking. Justify has a C profile grade ranking.
In addition to the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move some horses like Justify (C) up in ranking while some horses like Tenfold (A+)
can be moved down in ranking.
In
the Behavior Index chart above, Justify and Tenfold have had the Behavior Index
variable factored into their grade ranking, and, knowing how to apply that
variable is crucial.
Let’s
take a look at the horses I like in Preakness Stakes 143:
JUSTIFY, a chestnut colt by Scat Daddy
out of Stage Magic by Ghostzapper, comes into this race undefeated in four
starts with a combined win margin of 21½ lengths for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob
Baffert. Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Kentucky Derby
(G1):
JUSTIFY came away
in good order, shadowed PROMISES FULFILLED under rating three deep, moved
alongside with five furlongs remaining, spurted clear leaving the three furlong
marker, rebuffed the bid of GOOD MAGIC approaching the stretch, dug in when put
to a stern left handed drive leaving the three-sixteenths and was unwavering to
the wire.
Justify
soon took the lead and set fast fractions en route to a
2½ length victory in Kentucky Derby 144.
Scat Daddy,
the sire of Justify, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1
record in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was
3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes
(G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
In his season debut as a
3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and
followed up with wins in the 9 furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and
Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish in the Derby.
In addition to Justify, Scat
Daddy’s best runners on the Derby Trail include Mendelssohn,
Flameaway,
Daddy
Long Legs, Daddy Nose
Best, El Kabeir,
Frac
Daddy, Azar
and Dice
Flavor who was my long shot pick
to win the 2013 El Camino Real Derby (G3).
Justify
has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® but his
Behavior Index moves him up in raking and makes him competitive in this herd.
He’s the first classic champion in North America for his sire, Scat Daddy, and
he looms as the horse to beat in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
GOOD
MAGIC, chestnut
colt by Curlin out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, comes into this race for trainer Chad
Brown with a 2-3-1
record in six starts including a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby
(G1). Here’s the video
and chart call of his run in the Derby (G1):
GOOD MAGIC was in hand between rivals in good position, shifted out and
made his run at JUSTIFY nearing the quarter pole, continued a valiant chase to
deep stretch, flattened slightly late and just held the place.
Chasing fast fractions, Good Magic showed
his talent and determination to challenge Justify to the wire only to finish 2½
lengths shy of victory.
Good Magic’s
sire, Curlin, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16
career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the
age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings
including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a
third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the
Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
In his first five crops as a
stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace
Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes
(G1) winner Exaggerator.
In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Good Magic (second,
2018 Kentu,cky Derby), Ride On
Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice
(third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War
Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).
It’s been exciting to watch Good Magic’s
development on the Derby trail and I look for him to take another step forward
in his quest capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
TENFOLD, a dark bay colt by Curlin out of Temptress by
Tapit, comes into this race for Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen with a
2-0-0 record in three starts including a fifth-place finish in the Arkansas
Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that
race:
TENFOLD stalked
the pace in the three path, bid four wide at the quarter pole, then faltered
late.
In just his third career start, Tenfold was among a
group of four horses vying for second-place honors with only a neck separating
each horse at the wire. He finished a respectable fifth just 4½ lengths shy of
victory.
Curlin, the
sire of Tenfold, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in
16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the
age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings
including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a
third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the
Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include
the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai
World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE
Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Tenfold is a lightly race, improving colt, and with
an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be
competitive in this race. However, it remains to be seen if he can step up to
earn graded stakes honors.
LONE SAILOR, a bay colt by Majestic Warrior out of
Ambitious by Mr. Greeley, comes into this race for trainer Tom Amoss with a 1-3-1
record in nine starts including an eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby
(G1). Here’s the video
and chart call of that race:
LONE SAILOR was brushed
and off slowly, angled sharply to the rail, continued along the inside, was
stymied in traffic from the seven-sixteenths to inside the three-furlong
marker, got through and stayed on the rail to the stretch, shifted out late and
kept on to the wire.
Despite
traffic problems, Lone Sailor showed a lot of grit and determination to finish nicely.
He’s yet to earn graded stakes honors but he’s been knocking on the door with a
third-place finish in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), a second-place
finish in the Street Sense Stakes and a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky
Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
Majestic Warrior, the sire of Lone Sailor, compiled a 2-0-0 in seven
starts during his racing career with $239,229 in earnings including a win in
the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and a fourth-place finish in the Woody Stephens Stakes
(G2).
Currently
Majestic Warrior stands stud in Japan and as a stallion he’s sired
numerous graded stakes winners including: Princess of Sylmar, Best Warrior, Lady
Sabelia, Declan's Warrior and Mavic.
With
an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Lone Sailor has the breeding to be
competitive in this race and, with a potentially much cleaner trip, he could
hit the board at a nice price.
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