©2018 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby comes to an end with the final
prep races at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky and Oaklawn Park in
Hot Springs Arkansas.
At
Keeneland, MY
BOY JACK
heads a herd of twelve
young Thoroughbreds as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 37th
running of the $200,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3). Post time is 5:34
p.m. ET.
My
Boy Jack is ranked 21st on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and he
needs at least a second-place finish to make it into the Derby staring gate. He
comes into this race with a 2-3-2 record in nine starts for trainer Keith
Desormeaux including a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Here’s
the video and chart call of that race:
MY BOY JACK dropped
well behind early, went two to three wide on the first turn, drifted well out
in the track early on the backstretch, angled in near the seven-sixteenths,
started the far turn in about the two patch, angled seven wide while gaining
late on that bend, came eight wide into the stretch, closed strongly to make a
bid near the eighth-pole, battled with the top two in the final furlong and
then missed while well clear for the show.
My
Boy Jack ran at the back of the herd, twelve lengths off the leaders, until he
entered the far turn where he made a huge run to close the gap and get up for
third, just three-quarters of a length shy of victory.
Creative Cause, the sire of My Boy Jack, was a multiple graded
stakes winner that compiled a 4-2-3 record in 10 starts with $1,039,000 in
career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Creative Cause compiled a 3-1-1 record in five starts with wins
in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and Norfolk Stakes (G1). He finished second in the
Del Mar Futurity (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).
As
a three-year-old, Creative Cause was 1-1-2 in five starts. He finished third in
his debut as a three-year-old in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and followed that
with a win in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and a second-place finish in the Santa
Anita Derby (G1) en route to a respectable fifth-place finish in the Kentucky
Derby (G1).
Creative
Cause finished his racing career with a third-place finish in the Preakness
Stakes (G1).
With
an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, My Boy
Jack is one of the best-bred colts in this herd and I look for him to run a
good race.
GREYVITOS (6-1) makes his debut as a
three-year-old for trainer Adam Kitchingman and he comes into this race with a
2-0-1 record in four starts including a win in the Springboard Mile at
Remington Park. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
GREYVITOS stalked
the pace while three wide on the backstretch, rallied on the far turn and drew
clear in upper stretch then was kept to a drive to the end.
Greyvitos
raced in third behind the leaders to the far turn when he took command at the
top of the stretch and pulled away to win by 2¼ lengths.
Malibu
Moon, the sire
of Greyvitos, made only two starts as a two-year-old, compiling a 1-1-0 record,
before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At
stud, Malibu Moon sired the
2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been
competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley, Danzig
Moon, Mr.
Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu
Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care,
Declan’s Moon, Ask
the Moon,
Prospective, Kauai
Katie, Moon Catcher,
Moonshine Memories, Ransom the Moon,
and Malibu Mint.
Greyvitos
has not raced in three months but, despite the layoff, with an A Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be competitive in this
race.
TELEKINESIS (4-1) comes into this race with
a 1-0-1 record in two starts for trainer Mark Casse including a third-place
finish in his last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
TELEKINESIS angled
in while going to the front, contested the pace on the inside while in hand,
was asked at the five-sixteenths, came under a left-handed whip in upper
stretch, fought into the final sixteenth then was out finished while well clear
for the show.
Telekinesis
broke sharply and took the lead setting soft fractions to the final yards when
he was bested by two rivals and came up 1¾ lengths shy of victory.
Ghostzapper, a 2012 Hall of Fame inductee
and the sire of Telekinesis, was an
incredibly talented, multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 9-0-1 record
in 11 starts with $3,466,120 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Ghostzapper won his maiden special weight debut by nine lengths
and was 1-0-0 in two starts. At the age of three, Ghostzapper won the Vosburgh
Stakes (G1) and finished third in the King’s Bishop (G1), compiling a 3-0-1
record in four starts.
As
a four-year-old, Ghostzapper was undefeated in four starts winning the Tom Fool
Handicap (G2), Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3), Woodward Stakes
(G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (G1). In addition,
Ghostzapper was selected as the 2004 Eclipse Horse of the Year and Eclipse
Champion Older Horse.
In
his only start as a five-year-old, Ghostzapper was a 6 ¼ length winner of the
one-mile Metropolitan Handicap (G1).
Telekinesis
has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive
in this herd.
BATTLE AT SEA (8-1) comes into this race with
a 2-0-1 record in five starts for trainer Michael Maker including a win in the
Crescent City Derby. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
BATTLE AT SEA went
three then two wide on the first turn, set an uncontested pace, raced in the
two path on the far turn, was asked outside the quarter pole, came under a
right-handed whip in upper stretch, switched to a left-handed whip at the
furlong marker and proved best under strong urging.
Battle
At Sea led throughout and held off challengers in the final yards to win by 2¼
lengths.
Into Mischief, the sire of Battle At Sea, was a precocious colt
and multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-3-0 record in six starts
with $597,080 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Into Mischief easily won his maiden debut by 2½ lengths at
Santa Anita Park on October 21, 2007. He went on to finish second in the
Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and followed that with a win in the 8½-furlong
CashCall Futurity (G1). His finish time of 1:40.82 was just a few ticks off of
the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.
In
his debut as a three-year-old in February 2008, Into Mischief finished second
in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and after an extended break, he returned to
racing in October winning the Damascus Stakes by two lengths. In December, Into
Mischief finished his racing season with a second-place finish in the Malibu
Stakes (G1).
On
the Kentucky Derby Trail, his best runners have been Audible, winner of the Florida Derby
(G1), Goldencents, Practical Joke, Vyjack and Vicar’s in Trouble. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby and finished
17th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Practical Joke finished second in
the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Derby. Vyjack finished third
in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and 18th in the Derby. Vicar’s in
Trouble won the Louisiana Derby and finished 19th in the Kentucky
Derby (G1).
Harlan’s Holiday, the grandsire of Audible, won the Florida Derby
(G1), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby
(G1).
Battle
At Sea has a low F Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior
Index potentially makes him competitive in this herd.
Here’s a look at the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® and Brisnet Prime Power of the horses entered in the Lexington
Stakes (G3):
In
the first chart, Greyvitos is ranked first with an A Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile®. My Boy Jack is ranked second with an A profile. Magicalmeister
is ranked third with an B profile and Pony Up is ranked fourth with a C
profile.
In addition to the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move horses up or down in
ranking.
In the second chart, the Behavior Index of Telekinesis, Battle At
Sea and Zanesville potentially moves them up in ranking. Time will tell if it
was justifiable to add the Behavior Index variable to those horses.
*****
2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. +Good
Magic, 134, Chad Brown, $1,838,400
2. Audible, 110,
Todd Pletcher, $803,520
3. Noble Indy, 110,
Todd Pletcher, $640,000
4. Vino
Rosso, 107, Todd Pletcher, $572,500
5. Bolt d’Oro, 104, Mick Ruis, $980,000
6. Enticed, 103, Kiaran McLaughlin, $545,880
7. Mendelssohn, 100,
Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
8. Justify, 100,
Bob Baffert, $600,000
9. Flameaway, 70,
Mark Casse, $672,260
10. Bravazo, 54, D.
Wayne Lukas, $349,913
11. Promises
Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480
12. Magnum Moon,
50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000
13. Runaway Ghost,
50, $520,310
14. Quip, 50,
Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000
15. +Free
Drop Billy, 44, Dale Romans, $597,200
16. Lone Sailor,
42, Tom Amoss, $273,347
17. Hofburg, 40,
Bill Mott, $192,000
18. Firenze Fire, 39, Jason Servis, $647,500
19. +Solomini, 34, Bob Baffert, $616,000
European
Road Qualifier
20. Gronkowski, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
+ = Horses we picked
as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good
Magic = Eclipse Champion Two
Year Old Male. McKinzie
is off the Derby trail with and injury.
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total
points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. *GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
2.
*MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien,
$1,947,299
3.
Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
4. Roaring Lion
(USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
5. Iconic Sunset
(GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139
6.
f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
7.
*THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden
O’Brien, $54,076
8.
Court House (IRE), 8, John Gosden, $0
9.
Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti, $21,854
10.
*SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien,
$145,630
11.
Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
12.
Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
13.
Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
14.
Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4, Andrew Balding, $1,800
15.
Purser, 3, John Gosden, $19,215
16.
Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
17.
The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
18.
Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
20.
Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
*Mendelssohn,
Gronkowski, Threeandfourpence and Seahenge are only horses nominated for
Triple Crown. Here’s the video of Mendelssohn’s win in the
Patton Stakes. Here’s the video of Gronkowski’s win in the
Conditions Stakes.
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo Takahashi, $291,287
2.
*RUGGERO (JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861
3.
Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori Makiura, $299,689
4.
Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935
5.
Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $436,916
6. Mic Ben Hur
(JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696
7. Great Time
(JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586
8. Haseno Pyro
(JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981
9. Meiner
Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796
10. Dark Repulser
(JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920
11. Bronze Kay
(JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979
*Ruggero is the only horse
nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes. 
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