©2018 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs,
Arkansas, where the final prep race worth 100 points to the victor will be ran
at Oaklawn Park. A field of nine Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 82nd
running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) with MAGNUM MOON tagged as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Post time is 7:18 ET.
Undefeated
in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, Magnum Moon returns to the track as
the hero of the Rebel Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
MAGNUM MOON pressed
the pace in the three path, bid on the far turn, went clear in the stretch and
won under intermittent pressure.
Magnum
Moon stalked the pace on the outside and was in perfect position at the top of
the stretch to take the lead and win by 3½ lengths. The time of 1:36.39 for the
mile and final time of 1:42.68 is what I like to see young colts run on the
Derby trail.
Malibu Moon
made only two starts as a two-year-old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab
fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the
2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb.
In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been
competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley,
Danzig
Moon, Mr. Z
and Stanford.
Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten,
Devil
May Care, Declan’s Moon,
Ask
the Moon, Prospective,
Kauai
Katie, Moon Catcher,
Moonshine
Memories, Ransom the Moon,
and Malibu
Mint.
Magnum Moon has an A Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and a couple of recent bullet
work outs could have him ready to run another good race.
SOLOMINI (2-1) is 1-3-1 in five starts
and he comes into this race off a second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) for
Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert. Here’s the
video
and chart
call of that race:
SOLOMINI stalked
the pace in the three path, bid at the quarter pole and was steadied while in
tight, then came again late.
Solomini saved
ground at the rail but was stuck behind horses at the top of the stretch until
he finally found room and was able to get up for second place.
Curlin, the
sire of Solomini, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record
in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin
did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in
nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3)
and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky
Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second
in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other
important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club
Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1),
Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
With an
A+ Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Solomini
was a yearling
(Hip 662) we profiled in session
four at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he’s is the best-bred
colt in this herd.
Solomini
has room to improve in his second start of the season and I look for him to
take a step forward in the stretch out in distance.
Undefeated
in two starts for trainer Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen, TENFOLD (10-1)
is a long shot I like in this race. He comes into the Derby off a win in an
Allowance Optional Claiming race last out. Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
TENFOLD broke readily to gain a forward position
tracking just off the leaders while angling inward a bit on the first turn,
continued outside a rival under light rating to the second bend, shifted three
deep nearing upper stretch while advancing to challenge for command, then
wrested a narrow advantage in time under firm handling.
In just
his second start, Tenfold showed a lot of grit in his stretch duel with Navistar to prevail by a neck in a final
time of 1:44.16.
Curlin, the
sire of Tenfold, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in
16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin
did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in
nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3)
and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky
Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second
in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other
important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club
Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1),
Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Tenfold
is a lightly race, improving colt, and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® he has the breeding to be competitive in this race.
Hall of
Fame Jockey Victor Espinoza picks up the mount on Tenfold who has room to improve
in his third start of the season. However, he’ll need to pick the pace considerably
if he’s going the earn graded stakes honors.
COMBATANT (6-1) comes into this race with
a 1-3-1 record in six starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a third-place
finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
COMBATANT was
bumped early, bid inside at the three-eighths pole, angled three wide at the
stretch and just missed the place.
Combatant
ran toward the back of the herd but made up good ground on the far turn and
stretch to close the gap and get up for third-place.
Scat
Daddy, the sire
of Combatant, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record
in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford
Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful
Stakes (G1).
In
his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one-mile
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9-furlong Fountain of
Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish
in the Derby.
In
addition to Combatant, Scat Daddy’s best runners on the Derby Trail include Justify, Mendelssohn,
Flameaway,
Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El
Kabeir, Frac
Daddy, Azar and Dice
Flavor who was
my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real
Derby (G3).
Combatant
has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive
in this race.
Here’s a look at the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® and Brisnet Prime Power of the horses entered in the Arkansas
Derby (G1):
In
the first chart Solomini is ranked first with an A+ Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile®. Tenfold is ranked second with an A+ profile. Magnum Moon
is ranked third with an A profile and Combatant is ranked fourth with a C
profile.
In addition to the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move horses up or down in
ranking. In the first chart, honorable
mention Quip is ranked seventh but his Behavior Index potentially moves him up in
ranking to fifth in the second chart.
2018
KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
+Good
Magic, 134, Chad Brown, $1,838,400
2.
Audible, 110, Todd Pletcher, $803,520
3.
Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000
4.
Vino
Rosso, 107, Todd Pletcher, $572,500
5. Bolt d’Oro, 104, Mick Ruis, $980,000
6. Enticed, 103, Kiaran McLaughlin,
$545,880
7.
Mendelssohn, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
8.
Justify, 100, Bob Baffert, $600,000
9.
Flameaway, 70, Mark Casse, $672,260
10.
Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913
11.
Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480
12.
Magnum Moon, 50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000
13.
Runaway Ghost, 50, $520,310
14.
Quip, 50, Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000
15. +Free
Drop Billy, 44, Dale Romans, $597,200
16.
Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347
17.
Hofburg, 40, Bill Mott, $192,000
18. Firenze Fire, 39, Jason Servis,
$647,500
19. +Solomini, 34, Bob
Baffert, $616,000
European Road Qualifier
20. Gronkowski, 50, Jeremy Noseda,
$79,496
+
= Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland
September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. McKinzie is
off the Derby trail with and injury.
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
*GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
2. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
3. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan
O’Brien, $245,017
4.
Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
5.
Iconic Sunset (GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139
6. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan
O’Brien, $543,648
7. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076
8. Court House (IRE), 8, John
Gosden, $0
9. Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti,
$21,854
10. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630
11. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude
Rouget, $113,505
12. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan
O’Brien, $99,826
13. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4,
Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
14. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4,
Andrew Balding, $1,800
15. Purser, 3, John Gosden,
$19,215
16. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan
O’Brien, $101,264
17. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan
O’Brien, $71.981
18. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark
Johnston, $64,634
20. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2,
Brendan Duke, $12,904
*Mendelssohn,
Gronkowski,
Threeandfourpence
and Seahenge
are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video
of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video
of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo
Takahashi, $291,287
2. *RUGGERO
(JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861
3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori
Makiura, $299,689
4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10,
Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935
5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori
Makiura, $436,916
6.
Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696
7.
Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586
8.
Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981
9.
Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796
10.
Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920
11.
Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979
*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for
Triple Crown. Here’s the video
of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes.
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