Thursday, April 12, 2018

Arkansas Derby Racing Roundup


©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where the final prep race worth 100 points to the victor will be ran at Oaklawn Park. A field of nine Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 82nd running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) with MAGNUM MOON tagged as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Post time is 7:18 ET.
Undefeated in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, Magnum Moon returns to the track as the hero of the Rebel Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MAGNUM MOON pressed the pace in the three path, bid on the far turn, went clear in the stretch and won under intermittent pressure.

Magnum Moon stalked the pace on the outside and was in perfect position at the top of the stretch to take the lead and win by 3½ lengths. The time of 1:36.39 for the mile and final time of 1:42.68 is what I like to see young colts run on the Derby trail.
Malibu Moon made only two starts as a two-year-old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley, Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher, Moonshine Memories, Ransom the Moon, and Malibu Mint.
Magnum Moon has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and a couple of recent bullet work outs could have him ready to run another good race.
SOLOMINI (2-1) is 1-3-1 in five starts and he comes into this race off a second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SOLOMINI stalked the pace in the three path, bid at the quarter pole and was steadied while in tight, then came again late.

Solomini saved ground at the rail but was stuck behind horses at the top of the stretch until he finally found room and was able to get up for second place.
Curlin, the sire of Solomini, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Solomini was a yearling (Hip 662) we profiled in session four at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he’s is the best-bred colt in this herd.
Solomini has room to improve in his second start of the season and I look for him to take a step forward in the stretch out in distance.
Undefeated in two starts for trainer Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen, TENFOLD (10-1) is a long shot I like in this race. He comes into the Derby off a win in an Allowance Optional Claiming race last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TENFOLD broke readily to gain a forward position tracking just off the leaders while angling inward a bit on the first turn, continued outside a rival under light rating to the second bend, shifted three deep nearing upper stretch while advancing to challenge for command, then wrested a narrow advantage in time under firm handling.

In just his second start, Tenfold showed a lot of grit in his stretch duel with Navistar to prevail by a neck in a final time of 1:44.16.
Curlin, the sire of Tenfold, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Tenfold is a lightly race, improving colt, and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be competitive in this race.
Hall of Fame Jockey Victor Espinoza picks up the mount on Tenfold who has room to improve in his third start of the season. However, he’ll need to pick the pace considerably if he’s going the earn graded stakes honors.
COMBATANT (6-1) comes into this race with a 1-3-1 record in six starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

COMBATANT was bumped early, bid inside at the three-eighths pole, angled three wide at the stretch and just missed the place.

Combatant ran toward the back of the herd but made up good ground on the far turn and stretch to close the gap and get up for third-place.
Scat Daddy, the sire of Combatant, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
In his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish in the Derby.
In addition to Combatant, Scat Daddy’s best runners on the Derby Trail include Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway, Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El Kabeir, Frac Daddy, Azar and Dice Flavor who was my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real Derby (G3).
Combatant has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to QUIP (6-1) who comes into this race off a win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
Here’s a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Brisnet Prime Power of the horses entered in the Arkansas Derby (G1):































In the first chart Solomini is ranked first with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. Tenfold is ranked second with an A+ profile. Magnum Moon is ranked third with an A profile and Combatant is ranked fourth with a C profile.
In addition to the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move horses up or down in ranking. In the first chart, honorable mention Quip is ranked seventh but his Behavior Index potentially moves him up in ranking to fifth in the second chart.



2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 134, Chad Brown, $1,838,400
2. Audible, 110, Todd Pletcher, $803,520
3. Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000
4. Vino Rosso, 107, Todd Pletcher, $572,500
5. Bolt d’Oro, 104, Mick Ruis, $980,000
6. Enticed, 103, Kiaran McLaughlin, $545,880
7. Mendelssohn, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
8. Justify, 100, Bob Baffert, $600,000
9. Flameaway, 70, Mark Casse, $672,260
10. Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913
11. Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480
12. Magnum Moon, 50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000
13. Runaway Ghost, 50, $520,310
14. Quip, 50, Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000
15. +Free Drop Billy, 44, Dale Romans, $597,200
16. Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347
17. Hofburg, 40, Bill Mott, $192,000
18. Firenze Fire, 39, Jason Servis, $647,500
19. +Solomini, 34, Bob Baffert, $616,000
European Road Qualifier
20. Gronkowski, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
+ = Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. McKinzie is off the Derby trail with and injury.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. *GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
2. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
3. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
4. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
5. Iconic Sunset (GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139
6. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
7. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076
8. Court House (IRE), 8, John Gosden, $0
9. Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti, $21,854
10. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630
11. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
12. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
13. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
14. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4, Andrew Balding, $1,800
15. Purser, 3, John Gosden, $19,215
16. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
17. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
18. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
20. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
          *Mendelssohn, Gronkowski, Threeandfourpence and Seahenge are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo Takahashi, $291,287
2. *RUGGERO (JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861
3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori Makiura, $299,689
4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935
5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $436,916
6. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696
7. Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586
8. Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981
9. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796
10. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920
11. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes. 







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