©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights
reserved.
The classic trail
to Triple Crown glory takes us Saturday to Pimlico Race Couse in Baltimore,
Maryland, where Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Always Dreaming will attempt to
win the second jewel of the crown as the prohibitive 4-5 morning-line favorite
in the 142nd running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1).
Prerace television
coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on the NBC Sports Network with race coverage
beginning at 5 p.m. on NBC. You can also watch a live stream of the races at
the Preakness Stakes website link.
Always Dreaming is
the deserving favorite and he’ll be tough to beat. He’s undefeated in his last
four starts with a combined win margin of 22¾ lengths. Here’s a look his win
via the Bloodhorse 2017 Kentucky Derby Race Sequence.
In addition to Always
Dreaming, Lookin at Lee (10-1) and Classic Empire (3-1) also ran in
the Kentucky Derby and they are two horses that should be solid in this race. Another
horse I like is Hence (20-1). He also ran in the Derby and he’s
better than his eleventh-place finish (G1).
Other horses that
could, perhaps, be factors are Multiplier (30-1) and Conquest Mo Money (15-1). Cloud Computing (12-1) is a colt
I’ve liked in previous races and he’s the best bred colt in this race. However,
he’ll need to improve his game considerably in order to score the win.
Knowing
as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a
classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s and my
research and study led to the creation of the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which is an analytical tool I use to measure
the graded stakes and classic potential of young horses.
In
2014, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® was developed into a software program by my brother, Dallas, and
it assigns each horse a numerical score which is the indicator of that horse’s
potential. The higher the score, the more potential that horse has to become a
quality stakes horse or classic champion.
Let’s take a look
at the profiles of the horses in Preakness 142:
Our
research which is documented in my numerous blogs and website,
shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score which is a measurement
of the breeding influences found in the five-generation pedigree. In addition
to the profile score, the Behavior Index
and Data Mining are important tools
I use to determine horse potential.
In
the Behavior Index chart, some
horses that have a profile grade rating of B or lower like Always Dreaming, Hence, Classic Empire, Conquest Mo Money and Multiplier can be moved up because their
Behavior Index makes them competitive, enabling them to sometimes win races
that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.
For
example, in my blog about the nine-furlong 2016
Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), I noted that Outwork, who had an E grade rating,
was a horse I liked because his Behavior Index showed me he had the potential
to be competitive. Indeed, he went on to win the Wood. However, in the Kentucky
Derby (G1) Outwork’s grade rating had him ranked sixteenth and he finished
fourteenth.
Multiplier
has an E profile and he comes into this race off of a narrow win the
nine-furlong Illinois Derby (G3). His Behavior
Index made him competitive in that race (here’s the video) and time will tell how far it
will take in Preakness Stakes 142.
In
addition to moving some horses up, the Behavior
Index can also move down horses like Cloud Computing. If he doesn’t live up
to his breeding, Cloud Computing could potentially finish out of the top four.
When horses fail to run close to
their profile score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full
potential needs to be investigated. And there can be many contributing factors
for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.
Data Mining variables are another tool for
analyzing potential and when added to the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Behavior
Index, they can also move some horse up or down like Always Dreaming and Lookin
at Lee.
Always
Dreaming will be tough to beat but any of the top four horses listed in the Data Mining chart above have the
potential to win Preakness 142.
Let’s
take a look at the horses I like in this race:
ALWAYS DREAMING (4-5) is also a sire-line descendant
of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he comes into this race with 4-1-1
record in six starts including a 2¾ length win in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video
and chart call of that race:
ALWAYS DREAMING was
sent up between rivals to secure a forward position in the opening furlong,
dropped to the rail soon after to track the leader, angled back out approaching
the backstretch to take aim, drew alongside STATE OF HONOR five furlongs out,
gained a slim advantage a sixteenth later, briefly cleared then was met by a
pair of rivals with three furlongs remaining maintained command while nursed to
the quarter pole, opened up a daylight advantage after being shaken up soon
into the lane, extended his margin under repeated right hand rousing near the
sixteenth marker then comfortably held.
Always
Dreaming remained undefeated in four straight starts to easily win Kentucky
Derby 143 in a final time of 2:03.59 on a sloppy track compared to
Bodemeister’s approximate time of 2:01.83 on a fast track.
Bodemeister, the sire of Always Dreaming,
did not race until the age of three when he made six starts for Hall of Fame
Trainer Bob Baffert, compiling a 2-4-0 record in six starts with $1,304,800 in
career earnings.
He
raced twice in the maiden ranks before finishing second in his third start, the
San Felipe Stakes (G2). In his fourth start, Baffert shipped Bodemeister to
Oaklawn Park where he was my pick to win the Arkansas Derby
(G1). Bodemeister trounced the field, winning by an outstanding 9½ lengths. He
then went on to finish second in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness
Stakes (G1).
With
a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Always Dreaming has the breeding to
win this race and he looms as the horse to beat in Preakness Stakes 142.
LOOKIN AT LEE (10-1) is a sire-line descendant of the Mr.
Prospector Ancestral Herd and he comes into this race for trainer Steve
Asmussen with a 2-3-2 record in ten starts including a second-place finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s
the chart call of that race:
LOOKIN AT LEE settled
well back while saving ground, picked up the pace leaving the far turn,
continued skimming the rail advancing past the five sixteenths, continued his
run to mid-stretch, altered out and kept on gamely.
Lookin
at Lee likes run at the back of the herd and that running style enabled him to
close with good energy and finish third in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and second
in the Kentucky Derby (G1). A repeat of those runs in Preakness 142 should put
him in the money and, perhaps, the winners circle.
Lookin at Lucky, the sire of Lookin at Lee, was an exceptional
two year old who was undefeated in four starts, including victories in the Best
Pal Stakes (G2), Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Norfolk Stakes (G1), before
suffering his first loss by a neck to Vale of York in the 2009 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Stakes (G1).
As
a three year old, Lookin at Lucky won the CashCall Futurity (G1), Rebel Stakes
(G2) and he finished third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Lookin at Lucky
finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby and he earned the title Classic Champion
Thoroughbred with a three-quarter length victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Corey
Lanerie retains the mount on Lookin at Lee who’s a proven competitor on the
classic trail.
I
look for the pair to run a good race.
CLASSIC EMPIRE (3-1) is a sire-line descendant of the
Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd. He comes
into this race for trainer Mark Casse with a 5-0-1 record in eight starts off
of a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the chart call of that race:
CLASSIC EMPIRE
bobbled soon after the break then was hammered off stride between rivals when
forced down, regrouped to rate off the inside, picked up steam leaving the far
turn, swung five wide for the drive, had his run briefly interrupted when
bumped and carried out mid-stretch, regrouped and churned on.
Classic
Empire had a rough trip in this race but rallied in the stretch to finish a
respectable fourth. His gritty performance showed why he is the 2016 two year
old champion and a proven competitor on the trail.
Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Classic Empire,
was a pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that
compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two year old including a win in the CashCall
Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
(G1).
As
a three year old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1)
in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Regular
jockey Julien Leparoux retains the mount on Classic Empire and he’s a proven
competitor on the Triple Crown trail. If he has a better trip than he had in
the Kentucky Derby, Classic Empire has the potential to finish much better and,
perhaps, win Preakness Stakes 142.
HENCE (20-1) is a sire-line descendant of the Mr.
Prospector Ancestral Herd and he comes into this race for trainer Steve
Asmussen with a 2-1-1 record in seven starts including an eleventh-place finish
in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s
the chart call of that race:
HENCE in tight at
the break, settled well back, steadied off heels leaving the five sixteenths,
swung wide for the drive but failed to muster up the needed kick.
On
overall profile score, Hence is ranked third in this herd but his Behavior
Index ranks him eighth. Why he did not run better is not known but trainer
Steve Asmussen said in a Bloodhorse article that
the track conditions and kickback could have been a factor.
Street
Boss, the sire
of Hence, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled a 7-3-1- record in
13 starts with $831,800 in earnings.
Street
Boss did not race until he was a three year old compiling a 1-1-0 record in for
starts. At the age of four, Street Boss was 6-2-1 in nine starts with wins in
the Bing Crosby Handicap (G1), Triple Bend Invitational Handicap (G1) and the
Los Angeles Handicap (G3). He ran second in the Ancient Title Stakes (G1) and
third in the Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
Like
Always Dreaming, Hence also has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®
grade rating and he has the potential to be competitive in this race.
Jockey
Florent Geroux retains the mount on Hence and if improves off the Derby, he
could be a big factor in the exotics at a nice price.
Honorable
mention goes to CLOUD
COMPUTING
(12-1) who comes into this race for trainer Chad Brown with a 1-1-1 record in three
starts including a third place finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes. Here’s the video
of that race.
Cloud
Computing has the breeding to win this race. But he is lightly raced and will
need to make a big step forward to advance to the classic winner’s circle.
