©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby will take us to the Fair
Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana where Girvin heads a field of nine young
Thoroughbreds as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 104th running
of the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2). Post time is 6:21 p.m.
ET.
Girvin
comes into this race for trainer Joe Sharp with a 2-1-0 record in three starts
including a win in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in his last outing. Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
GIRVIN brushed
the inside of the gate at the start, saved ground on the first turn, settled
off the pace, was asked at the half mile pole, rounded the far turn in the two
path, was roused inside the three-eighths, rallied under a left handed whip in
upper stretch, made a bid while switched to a right-handed whip at the furlong
marker, swapped leads back and forth while moving clear to the sixteenth-pole
and proved best under strong urging.
Girvin
is a proven competitor on the Kentucky Derby Trail and with a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking his Behavior Index
makes him competitive in Louisiana Derby (G2).
Tale
of Ekati, the sire of Girvin, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in 15
starts with $1,182,992 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Tale of Ekati
was 2-1-0 in three stars with a win in the Futurity Stakes (G2) and a
second-place finish in the Sanford Stakes (G2).
As a three year old, Tale of
Ekati was 3-0-0 in eight starts with a win in the 9-furlong Wood Memorial
Stakes (G1) in route to a fourth-place finish in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. His
other stakes wins include the one mile Jerome Handicap (G2) and the Hill ‘N’
Dale Cigar Mile Handicap (G1).
Tale
of Ekati made three starts as a four year old but did not finish in the money.
Girvin
has never finished worse than second in his three previous starts and I look for
him to run good on Saturday. However, nine furlongs may be at his limit and I’ll
be interested to see how well he handles the stretch out in distance.
A
mild long shot I like is the lightly-raced Patch (9-2) who’s compiled a
1-1-0 record in two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher and he comes into this
race off of a maiden win at Gulfstream Park on February 18. Here’s the video
and chart call of his last race:
PATCH was close
up early toward the inside, came out three wide nearing the stretch to go after
the leaders, caught MEANTIME in deep stretch and drove clear.
Patch
looked good breaking his maiden in just his second start and he has room to
improve in his third start of the season.
Union
Rags, the sire
of Patch, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1),
compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with $1,798,800 in
earnings.
As
a two year old, he won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and Champagne
(G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
stakes.
At
the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes
and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish
in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck
over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.
With
an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, Patch has the breeding to
win the Louisiana Derby (G2). However, it remains to be seen if he can make the
step up in class in just his third start to win graded stakes honors.
Guest
Suite (4-1)
comes into this race for trainer Neil Howard with a 3-0-2 record in six starts
including a fourth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
GUEST SUITE went
three then two wide on the first turn, settled towards the rear of the field,
was ridden along while three wide on the far turn, came four wide into the
stretch, angled out near the three-sixteenths and improved position to just
miss the show.
Guest
Suite was only beaten by 4½ lengths and narrowly missed finishing third by a
neck.
Quality
Road, the sire
of Frank Conversation, easily won his maiden debut, and only race as a two year
old, in November of 2008. In his debut as a three year old, he finished second
in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in January. He followed that in
February with a 4¼ length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and in
March, Quality Road ran to a 1¾ length win over Dunkirk in the Florida Derby (G1).
In
late April, Quality Road developed a quarter crack on his right front foot and
that prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby. After a three month
break, Quality Road returned to racing to win the Amsterdam Stakes (G2).
Quality
Road completed his racing career with wins in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3), Donn
Handicap (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Woodward Stakes (G1). He finished
third in the Travers Stakes (G1) and second in both the Jockey Club Gold Cup
Stakes (G1) and Whitney Handiciap (G1).
With
a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating Guest Suite has the
breeding to be competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
Local
Hero (7-2)
comes into this race for trainer Steve Asmussen with a 1-2-1 record in four
starts including a third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Here’s the
video
and chart
call of that race:
LOCAL HERO was
hustled to the lead, raced in the three then two path on the first turn, opened
up a sizeable advantage, came under some strong urging in the two path on the
far turn, was asked for more at the quarter-pole, lost the advantage at the
furlong marker and weakened while able to just hold the show.
Local
Hero took the lead at the start but did not have enough to capture the win at 8½-furlongs.
Hard
Spun, the sire
of Local Hero, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old, including wins
in the Port Penn Stakes and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. As a three year old on
the Derby trail, Hard spun was 2-0-0 in three starts including wins in the Le
Comte Stakes (G3) and Lane’s End Stakes (G2).
Hard
Spun went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the
Preakness Stakes (G1) and rounded out his classic campaign with a fourth-place
finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
With
a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating, Local Hero should be
competitive in this race. However, it appears that this running style on the
lead is not conducive to him scoring the win in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Honorable
mention goes to Monaco
(12-1) who comes into this race off a maiden win in three starts for trainer
Todd Pletcher. Here’s the video
of that race.
Monaco
is a long-striding colt and appeared to win with ease. However, the times were slow
and he’ll need to pick up the pace considerably in order to score the win.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Louisiana
Derby (G2) will receive 100 points, the second-place finisher will receive 40
points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive 10 points.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Thunder Snow,
100, Saeed bin Suroor, $1,621,063
2. Gunnevera, 64,
Antonio Sano, $1,042,800
3. Tapwrit, 54,
Todd Pletcher, $295,570
4. J Boys Echo,
53, Dale Romans, $255,000
5. Hence, 50,
Steve Asmussen, $$481,129
6. Malagacy, 50,
Todd Pletcher, $540,000
7. **Fast and
Accurate, 50, $320,712
8. Girvin, 50,
Joe Sharp, $249,800
9. Practical
Joke, 34, Chad Brown, $766,000
10. Untrapped,
34, Steve Asmussen, $210,000
11. Classic Empire,
32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
12. El Areeb, 30,
Cathal Lynch, $330,000
13. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $284,000
14. State of
Honor, 22, Mark Casse, $119,564
15. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
16. Master Plan,
20, Todd Pletcher, $214,700
17. Iliad, 20,
Doug O’Neill, $200,000
18. Sonneteer,
20, Keith Desormeaux, $186,000
19. Blueridge
Traveler, 20, $95,000
20. Cloud
Computing, 20, Chad Brown, $60,000
**Owner
Kendall Hansen has indicated that the late supplemental nomination fee of
$200,000 will be paid. Not This Time, retired to stud at Taylor
Made Farm. Mastery is off the trail with a
condylar fracture.
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Here’s the video
of the Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
The connections of Epicharis have stated
that they will skip the Kentucky Derby (G1) and may go to the Preakness (G1)
and Belmont Stakes (G1).
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