It's A Long Way To The First Saturday In May: A Look At 14 Years of Two-Year-old Thoroughbreds On The Kentucky Derby Trail

©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The victory of Dortmund in the exciting finish of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) brings to a close the qualifying stakes races for two year old Thoroughbreds on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Dortmund is the 9-1 individual favorite in pool one of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, and he’s the Wynn Las Vegas 12-1 pre-Derby favorite, replacing American Pharoah who is now the 15-1 second choice. If Dortmund stays healthy, he should be competitive as a three year old and he could earn a spot in the Derby starting gate.

However, when looking at the racing history of two-year-old Thoroughbreds, there’s a good possibility that we may not have seen the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner race in any of the major end-of-year prep races.

 An analysis of those major prep races for the past 14 years shows that a total of 593 two-year-old Thoroughbreds competed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Hollywood Futurity (G1), Remsen (G2), Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot (G3). Of those 593 runners, only 98 (16%) went on to compete as three year olds in the Kentucky Derby.

Astonishingly, from that group of 98 two year old Thoroughbreds, only two won their prep race and went on to win the Kentucky Derby as a three year old: Street Sense won the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the 2007 Kentucky Derby; Super Saver won the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club and the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

Giacomo finished second in the 2004 Hollywood Futurity and won the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Mine That Bird finished 12^th (dead last) in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Other horses from the group of 98 that did not win the Kentucky Derby but went on to become Classic Champion Thoroughbreds include: Point Given (2001 Preakness, Belmont), Empire Maker (2003 Belmont), Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness, Belmont), Lookin at Lucky (2010 Preakness), Union Rags (2012 Belmont) and Oxbow (2013 Preakness).

Overall, out of that group of 98, as three year olds only 19 (19%) finished on the board in the Derby and 12 (12%) finished in the money. Here’s a closer look at the highlights of the individual prep races:

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

 From 2000 to 2013, a total of 168 horses competed in the Juvenile. Of those 168 horses, 42 (25%) competed in the Kentucky Derby as a three year old. Of those 41 horses, seven (17%) finished on the board in the Derby and five (12%) finished in the money.

2004 – Afleet Alex finished third in Juvenile and 2005 Kentucky Derby.

2005 – Brother Derek finished fourth in Juvenile and 2006 Kentucky Derby.

2006 – Street Sense won Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby.

2007 – Tale of Ekati finished fourth in Juvenile and 2008 Kentucky Derby.

2008 – Mine That Bird finished 12^th in Juvenile and first in the 2009 Derby. Pioneerof the Nile finished fifth in Juvenile and second in the Derby.

2011 – Dullahan finished fourth in Juvenile and third in the 2012 Derby.

LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY

(formerly the Hollywood Futurity

and CashCall Futurity)

A total of 124 horses competed in the Futurity from 2000 to 2013. Of those 124 horses, 23 (18%) competed as a three year old in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 23 competitors, five (21%) finished on the board in the Derby and three (13%) finished in the money.

2003 – Lion Heart won the Futurity and finished second in the 2004 Derby.

2004 – Giacomo finished second in the Futurity and won the 2005 Derby.

2005 – Brother Derek won the Futurity and finished fourth in the 2006 Derby.

2008 – Pioneerof the Nile won the Futurity and finished second in the 2009 Derby.

2009 – Make Music for Me finished third in the Futurity and fourth in 2010 Derby.

REMSEN

From 2000 to 2013, a total of 110 horses competed in the Remsen. Of those 110 horses, 20 (18%) went on to compete as three year olds in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 20 competitors, five (25%) finished on the board in the Derby and three (15%) finished in the money.

2002 – Empire Maker finished third in Remsen and second in the 2003 Derby.

2005 – Bluegrass Cat won the Remsen and finished second in the 2006 Derby.

2010 – Mucho Macho Man finished second in Remsen and third in the 2011 Derby.

2012 – Normandy Invasion finished second in Remsen and fourth in the 2013 Derby.

2013 – Wicked Strong finished third in Remsen and fourth in the 2014 Derby.

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB

A total of 122 horses competed in the Kentucky Jockey Club from 2000 to 2013. Of those, 19 (15%) went on as three year olds to run in the Kentucky Derby. From that group of 19, only one horse, Super Saver, made his mark winning the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club and the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

BOYD’S GAMING DELTA JACKPOT

From 2002 to 2013, a total of 107 horses competed in the Jackpot. Of those 107 horses, nine (8%) went on as three year olds to run in the Derby. Only one, Closing Argument, made his mark by finishing second in the 2004 Jackpot and second in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

Here’s a year-by-year look at the major prep races and final Kentucky Derby finish of two year old Thoroughbreds on the Derby Trail:

2000

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2001 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 14 horse field

2^nd – Point Given, 5^th (1^st Preakness, Belmont)

10^th – Dollar Bill, 15^th

14^th – A P Valentine, 7^th

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 4 horse field

1^st – Point Given, 5^th (1^st Preakness, Belmont)

2^nd – Millennium Wind, 11^th

REMSEN (G2) – 8 horse field

No runners competed in the 2001 Kentucky Derby

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 6 horse field

1^st – Dollar Bill, 15^th

2001

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2002 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 12 horse field

1^st – Johannesburg, 8^th

7^th – Came Home, 6^th

8^th – Saarland, 10^th

10^th – It’sallinthechase, 16^th

12^th – Essence of Dubai, 9^th

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 8 horse field

No runners competed in the 2002 Kentucky Derby

REMSEN (G2) – 9 horse field

1^st – Saarland, 10^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 6 horse field

2^nd – Request for Parole, 5^th

2002

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2003 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 13 horse field

No runners competed in the 2003 Kentucky Derby

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 6 horse field

3^rd – Domestic Dispute, 10^th

REMSEN (G2) – 8 horse field

3^rd – Empire Maker, 2^nd (1^st Belmont)

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 12 horse field

2^nd – Ten Cents a Shine, 8^th

9^th – Domestic Dispute, 10^th

DELTA JACKPOT – 10 horse field

1^st – Outta Here, 7^th

2003

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2004 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 12 horse field

1^st – Action This Day, 6^th

2^nd – Minister Eric, 16^th

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 5 horse field

1^st – Lion Heart, 2^nd

REMSEN (G2) – 11 horse field

1^st – Read the Footnotes, 7^th

2^nd – Master David, 12^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 8 horse field

1^st – The Cliff’s Edge, 5^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT – 10 horse field

No runners competed in the 2004 Kentucky Derby

2004

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2005 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 8 horse field

1^st – Wilko, 6^th

2^nd – Afleet Alex, 3^rd (1^st Preakness, Belmont)

3^rd – Sun King, 15^th

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 7 horse field

2^nd – Giacomo, 1^st

3^rd – Wilko, 6^th

REMSEN (G2) – 6 horse field

No runners competed in the 2005 Kentucky Derby

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 9 horse field

1^st – Greater Good, 13^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT – 10 horse field

2^nd – Closing Argument, 2^nd

2005

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2006 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 14 horse field

4^th – Brother Derek, 4^th

14^th – Private Vow, 15^th

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 8 horse field

1^st – Brother Derek, 4^th

3^rd – Bob and John, 17^th

4^th – A. P. Warrior, 18^th

REMSEN (G2) – 8 horse field

1^st – Bluegrass Cat, 2^nd

2^nd – Flashy Bull, 14^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 7 horse field

1^st – Private Vow, 15^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT

Did not race

2006

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2007 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 14 horse field

1^st – Street Sense, 1^st

2^nd – Circular Quay, 6^th

3^rd – Great Hunter, 13^th

4^th – Scat Daddy, 18^th

5^th – Stormello, 19^th

10^th – Teuflesberg, 17^th

HOLLYWOOD FUTURITY (G1) – 10 horse field

1^st – Stormello, 19^th

2^nd – Liquidity, 14^th

REMSEN (G2) – 8 horse field

1^st – Nobiz Like Shobiz, 10^th

2^nd – Zanjero, 12^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 9 horse field

2^nd – Any Given Saturday, 8^th

3^rd – Dominican, 11^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field

No runners competed in the 2007 Kentucky Derby

2007

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2008 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 11 horse field

2^nd – Pyro, 8^th

4^th – Tale of Ekati, 4^th

5^th – Z Humor, 14^th

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 12 horse field

2^nd – Colonel John, 6^th

4^th – Monba, 20^th

REMSEN (G2) – 6 horse field

1^st – Court Vision, 13^th

4^th – Big Truck, 18^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 7 horse field

1^st – Anak Nakal, 7^th

7^th – Cool Coal Man, 15^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field

1^st – Z Humor, 14^th

2008

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2009 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 12 horse field

5^th – Pioneerof the Nile, 2^nd

6^th – West Side Bernie, 9^th

12^th – Mine That Bird, 1^st

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 11 horse field

1^st – Pioneerof the Nile, 2^nd

3^rd – Chocolate Candy, 5^th

REMSEN (G2) – 7 horse field

2^nd – Atomic Rain, 16^th

5^th – Hold Me Back, 12^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 9 horse field

No runners competed in the 2009 Kentucky Derby

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field

2^nd – West Side Bernie, 9^th

2009

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2010 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 13 horse field

2^nd – Lookin at Lucky, 6^th (1^st Preakness)

3^rd – Noble’s Promise, 5^th

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 7 horse field

1^st – Lookin at Lucky, 6^th (1^st Preakness)

2^nd – Noble’s Promise, 5^th

3^rd – Make Music for Me, 4^th

REMSEN (G2) – 6 horse field

5^th – Homeboykris, 16^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 9 horse field

1^st – Super Saver, 1^st

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 9 horse field

No runners competed in the 2010 Kentucky Derby

2010

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2011 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 10 horse field

5^th – Stay Thirsty, 12^th

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 10 horse field

1^st – Comma to the Top, 19^th

REMSEN (G2) – 5 horse field

2^nd – Mucho Macho Man, 3^rd

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 7 horse field

1^st – Santiva, 6^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field

2^nd – Decisive Moment, 14^th

2011

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2012 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 13 horse field

1^st – Hansen, 9^th

2^nd – Union Rags, 7^th (1^st Belmont)

3^rd – Creative Cause, 5^th

4^th – Dullahan, 3^rd

5^th – Take Charge Indy, 19^th

8^th – Optimizer, 11^th

11^th – Alpha, 12^th

12^th – Daddy Long Legs, 20^th

13^th – Prospective, 18^th

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 13 horse field

1^st – Liaison, 6^th

2^nd – Rousing Sermon, 8^th

REMSEN (G2) – 10 horse field

3^rd – El Padrino, 13^th

4^th – Done Talking, 14^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 11 horse field

1^st – Gemologist, 16^th

4^th – Optimizer, 11^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field

1^st – Sabercat, 15^th

2012

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2013 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 9 horse field

No runners competed in the 2013 Kentucky Derby

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 11 horse field

4^th – Oxbow, 6^th (1^st Preakness)

REMSEN (G2) – 10 horse field

1^st – Overanalyze, 11^th

2^nd – Normandy Invasion, 4^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 13 horse field

2^nd – Frac Daddy, 16^th

6^th – Java’s War, 13^th

13^th – Will Take Charge, 8^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 9 horse field

1^st – Goldencents, 17^th

3^rd – Mylute, 5^th

6^th – Itsmyluckyday, 15^th

2013

RACE

Finish – Horse, 2014 Kentucky Derby Finish

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 13 horse field

7^th – We Miss Artie, 10^th

8^th – Dance With Fate, 6^th

11^th – Medal Count, 8^th

CASHCALL FUTURITY (G1) – 12 horse field

2^nd – Candy Boy, 13^th

REMSEN (G2) – 8 horse field

3^rd – Wicked Strong, 4^th

4^th – Intense Holiday, 12^th

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 9 horse field

1^st – Tapiture, 15^th

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field

No runners competed in the 2014 Kentucky Derby

          Here’s a look at this year’s finishers of the 2014 end-of-year prep races and, where applicable, their 2015 Kentucky Derby point ranking:

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) – 11 horse field, 2015 Kentucky Derby Ranking

1^st – Texas Red, 2^nd with 12 points

2^nd – Carpe Diem, 1^st with 14 points

3^rd – Upstart, 12^th with 6 points

4^th – The Great War, 25^th with 1 point

5^th – Mr. Z, 6^th with 10 points

6^th – One Lucky Dane

7^th – Souper Colossal

8^th – Lucky Player, 11^th 10 points

9^th – Private Prospect

10^th – Blue Dancer

11^th – Daredevil, 8^th with 10 points

LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY (G1) – 5 horse field, 2015 Kentucky Derby Ranking

1^st – Dortmund, 8^th with 10 points

2^nd – Firing Line, 17^th with 4 points

3^rd – Mr. Z, 6^th with 10 points

4^th – Bench Warrant, 29^th with 1 point

5^th – No Problem

REMSEN (G2) – 13 horse field, 2015 Kentucky Derby Ranking

1^st – Leave the Light On, 10^th with 10 points

2^nd – Frosted, 18^th with 4 points

3^rd – Keen Ice, 22^nd with 2 points

4^th – Classy Class, 31^st with 1 point

5^th – Bodhisattva

6^th – The Truth Or Else, 20^th with 2 points

7^th – Market Conduct

8^th – Thirtysevenliveson

9^th – Eh Cumpari

10^th – Combat Diver

11^th – Moonlight Bandit

12^th – Royal Burgh

13^th – Ostrolenka

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2) – 11 horse field, 2015 Kentucky Derby Ranking

1^st – El Kabeir, 3^rd with 11 points

2^nd – Imperia, 15^th with 4 points

3^rd – Eagle, 24^th with 2 points

4^th – International Star, 4^th with 11 points

5^th – Lord Nelson, 26^th with 1 point

6^th – Flashaway, 32^nd with 1 point

7^th – Lucky Player, 11^th with 10 points

8^th – Sky Hero

9^th – Majestico

10^th – War Point

11^th – Jumpin Frac Flash

BOYD GAMING’S DELTA JACKPOT (G3) – 10 horse field, 2015 Kentucky Derby Ranking

1^st – Ocho Ocho Ocho, 5^th with 10 points

2^nd – Mr. Z, 6^th with 10 points

3^rd – Far Right, 19^th with 2 points

4^th – Saratoga Heater, 28^th with 1 point

5^th – Dekabrist

6^th – Wake Up Nick

7^th – Red Button

8^th – Prime Engine

9^th – Golden Actor

10^th – Conquest Tsunami

          Overall, there were 50 horses that raced in the major end-of-year 2014 prep races for two year old Thoroughbreds. It remains to be seen how many of those horses will move forward as three year olds to compete in the Kentucky Derby and if any of them have classic potential.

          In my next blog, which I hope to have finished before the New Year, I’ll post my 2015 Kentucky Derby Outlook.