©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby will take us to Gulfstream
Park, Saturday, where Gunnevera will go the starting gate as
the 9-5 morning line favorite in 66th running of the $1 million,
Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (G1). Post time
is 6:40 ET.
Gunnevera
comes into the race for trainer Antonio Sano with a 4-2-0 record in eight starts
including a commanding win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) in his last
outing. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
GUNNEVERA bumped lightly with HURACAN AMERICO toward the rear
heading to the first turn, moved up outside down the backstretch, began picking
up rivals more rapidly four wide around the far turn, caught THREE RULES and
PRACTICAL JOKE from the outside turning for home and drew off under steady
pressure.
The
time for the mile of 1:37.85 and final time of 1:44.25 were slower than what I
like to see colts run on the Derby trail. However, with a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, Gunnevera continues to show that he is
a consistent competitor on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail.
Dialed
In, the sire of
Gunnevera, won his only start as a two year old – a 6½ furlong maiden special
weight by a half a length at Churchill Downs in November 2010. As a three year
old, Dialed In won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes, finished second in a
9-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park, and won the
Florida Derby (G1) by a head over Shackleford en route to an eighth place-finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Gunnevera has been training well and he has
room to improve in his third start of the season and I look for him to run
another good race.
A
long shot I like in this race is State of Honor (8-1) who comes into the Florida Derby
(G1) with a 1-3-2 record in nine starts for trainer Mark Casse including a
third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and a second-place
finish to Tapwrit in the Lambholm South Tampa
Bay Derby (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
STATE OF HONOR raced
four wide early, pulled his way to the front, set the pace racing near the
inside, responded when asked, was no match for the winner but continued gamely
for place honors.
Tapwrit’s
final time of 1:42.36 was a new stakes and track record and State of Honor was
about a second slower, 4½ lengths back. If State of Honor runs close to that
time it makes him very competitive in the Florida Derby (G1).
To Honor and Serve, the sire of State of Honor,
was a young colt I liked, along with my top pick Animal Kingdom, on the 2011 Kentucky Derby Trail.
In
three racing seasons, To Honor and Serve was a multiple graded-stakes winner
who compiled an 8-1-3 record in 17 starts with $1,798,840 in career earnings.
To
Honor and Serve compiled a 3-1-0 record in four starts as a two year old with
wins in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2).
As
a three year old, he was 3-0-2 in seven starts with a win in the Pennsylvania
Derby and (G2) and the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1).
At
the age of four, To Honor and Serve won the Westchester Stakes (G3) and
Woodward Stakes (G1).
With
an B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, State of Honor has the
breeding to win this race and time will tell if he can step to earn
graded-stakes honores.
Always Dreaming (4-1) comes into this race with 2-1-1
record in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a win at Gulfstream
Park on March 4. Here’s the video and chart
call of his last race:
ALWAYS DREAMING was
quickly in front, set a leisurely pace along the inside, and remained
unchallenged and unasked to mid-stretch before coming under mild hand urging
the last 70 yards.
Always
Dreaming led from gate to wire and was never called on by jockey John Velazquez
who gave him a hand ride around the track setting pitiful fractions and a final
time of 1:53.44 for the nine furlongs.
Bodemeister, the sire of Always Dreaming,
did not race until the age of three when he made six starts for Hall of Fame
Trainer Bob Baffert, compiling a 2-4-0 record in six starts with $1,304,800 in
career earnings.
He
raced twice in the maiden ranks before finishing second in his third start, the
San Felipe Stakes (G2). In his fourth start, Baffert shipped Bodemeister to
Oaklawn Park where he was my pick to win the Arkansas Derby
(G1). Bodemeister trounced the field, winning by an outstanding 9½ lengths. He
then went on to finish second in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness
Stakes (G1).
Always
Dreaming has shown good speed in his first two races and he’ll need to pick up
the pace in the Florida Derby (G1) in order to secure the win.
Three
Rules
(8-1) is a talented colt and he comes into this race with a 5-1-1- record in
eight starts for trainer Jose Pinchin including a third-place finish in the
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Here’s
the video and chart call of that race:
THREE RULES broke
alertly to set the pace outside IRISH WAR CRY
early, shook off that one after six furlongs and was confronted first by
PRACTICAL JOKE, then by GUNNEVERA as well, fought along the rail inside
PRACTICAL JOKE to the wire and yielded second grudgingly.
I
like how Three Rules showed his competitive spirit in the stretch duel with
Practical Joke.
Gone
Astray,
the sire of Three Rules, was a multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a
5-5-4 record in 21 starts with $1,125,162 in career earnings.
Gone
Astray did not run in any stakes races as a two year old and he was 1-0-1 in
four starts.
As
a three year old, Gone Astray was 3-3-2 in nine starts with wins in both the
Ohio Derby (G2) and Pennsylvania Derby (G2). As a four year old, he compiled a
1-2-1 record in seven starts with wins in the Discovery Handicap (G3) and
Withers Stakes (G3).
Gone
Astray only made one start as a five year old and he finished out of the money.
In
eight starts, Three Rules has only finished out of the money in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) last November. However, nine furlongs may be beyond
his optimum competitive distance.
Honorable
mention goes to Battalion Runner (3-1) and Talk Logistics (30-1) who could potentially be a
factor in the exotics.
Battalion
Runner is the morning line second choice and he comes into this race with 2-1-0
record in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. However, according to a
Gulfstream Park news release, Battalion Runner may skip the Florida
Derby (G1). Here’s the video of his last race.
Talk
Logistics comes into the Florida Derby (G1) off of a distant fourth-place
finish to Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Florida
Derby (G1) will receive 100 points, the second-place finisher will receive 40
points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive 10 points.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Thunder Snow,
100, Saeed bin Suroor, $1,621,063
2. Gunnevera, 64,
Antonio Sano, $1,042,800
3. Tapwrit, 54,
Todd Pletcher, $295,570
4. J Boys Echo,
53, Dale Romans, $255,000
5. Hence, 50,
Steve Asmussen, $$481,129
6. Malagacy, 50,
Todd Pletcher, $540,000
7. **Fast and
Accurate, 50, $320,712
8. Girvin, 50,
Joe Sharp, $249,800
9. Practical
Joke, 34, Chad Brown, $766,000
10. Untrapped,
34, Steve Asmussen, $210,000
11. Classic
Empire, 32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
12. El Areeb, 30,
Cathal Lynch, $330,000
13. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $284,000
14. State of
Honor, 22, Mark Casse, $119,564
15. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
16. Master Plan,
20, Todd Pletcher, $214,700
17. Iliad, 20,
Doug O’Neill, $200,000
18. Sonneteer,
20, Keith Desormeaux, $186,000
19. Blueridge
Traveler, 20, $95,000
20. Cloud
Computing, 20, Chad Brown, $60,000
**Owner
Kendall Hansen has indicated that the late supplemental nomination fee of
$200,000 will be paid. Not This Time, retired to stud at Taylor
Made Farm. Mastery is off the trail with a
condylar fracture. El Areeb is off the trail with an
injury to his right knee.
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Here’s the video
of the Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
The connections of Epicharis have stated that they will skip the Kentucky Derby
(G1) and may go to the Preakness (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
