©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to sunny Florida,
Saturday, where Irish War Cry, winner of the Lambholm South
Holy Bull Stakes (G2), will go the starting gate as the mild 5-2 morning-line
favorite in the 71st running of $400,000 Xpressbet.com Fountain of
Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Irish
War Cry comes into this race for trainer Graham Motion undefeated in three
starts including a narrow win by a nose in the Marylander Stakes and a three and three quarter
length win in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
IRISH WAR CRY quickly
sprinted clear but stayed well off the rail three wide into the backstretch,
remained off the inside around the far turn, lengthened the advantage into the
stretch still well out in the track and bounded away while only shown the whip
left-handed late.
Irish
War Cry was my long shot pick in the Holy Bull and he showed
his class to extend his winning streak to three in a row. He showed the same
class and grit to prevail over a determined O Dionysius in the Marylander and
that foundation should have him prepared for the Fountain of Youth.
Curlin, the sire of Irish War Cry, was an outstanding
racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800
in career earnings.
Curlin did not
start as a two year old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine
starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and
Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby
(G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important
stakes wins include the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
With
a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®,
Irish War Cry is one of the best bred colts in this race. He has the breeding
to be competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
However,
Irish War Cry could, perhaps, get some stiff competition from my long shot Lookin for Eight (20-1) who comes into this race off of a maiden
win on January 28. Here’s the video and chart call of that win.
LOOKIN FOR EIGHT
vied three deep for the early lead, took command leaving the turn without much
asking, tapped few times, pulled away to clear lead and finished wrapped up in
the end.
The
chart call pretty much tells the tale of Lookin for Eight who impressively took
command and broke his maiden in his second start.
Lookin at Lucky, the sire of Lookin for Eight, was an exceptional
two year old who was undefeated in four starts, including victories in the Best
Pal Stakes (G2), Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Norfolk Stakes (G1), before
suffering his first loss by a neck to Vale of York in the 2009 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Stakes (G1).
As
a three year old, Lookin at Lucky won the CashCall Futurity (G1), Rebel Stakes
(G2) and he finished third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Lookin at Lucky
finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby and he earned the title Classic Champion
Thoroughbred with a three-quarter length victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Lookin
for Eight is stepping up in class and stretching out to a route for new trainer
Mark Casse. However, with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the
breeding to competitive and room to improve in his second start of the season.
Made You Look (10-1) comes into this race for trainer Todd
Pletcher with a 3-1-1 record in six starts including a third-place finish in
the Kitten’s Joy Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
MADE YOU LOOK was
unhurried two wide after being bumped by CLYDE’S IMAGE at the start, remained
reserved toward the rear into the far turn, came three wide at the top of the
stretch and had nowhere to go behind and between horses, altered course toward
the inside and finished well too late.
Made
You Look only lost by one length and, perhaps, if he had clear running room he
could have won. The finish time of 1:36.41 is in the neighborhood of what I
like to see in young colts on the Derby trail.
More Than Ready, the sire of Made You Look, was a multiple
graded-stakes winner that compiled a 7-4-1 record in 17 starts with $1,026,229
in earnings. He won the WHAS-11 Stakes, Flash Stakes, Tremont Stakes (G3),
Sanford Stakes (G2), Hutcheson Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Louisiana
Derby (G2) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in route to a fourth-place finish
in the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1).
At
stud, More Than Ready made
quite a mark with in Australia with his sons Phelan
Ready
and Sebring who were champion 2-year-colts with
over $2 million in career earnings. Some of his best runners in America have
been the turf-sprinter Regally Ready with over $1 million in career
earnings and Pluck, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Turf Stakes (G2) and Summer Stakes (G3) with $727,290 in career earnings, and
Verrazano.
Made
You Look has room to improve in his third start of the season. The jockey
switch to John Velazquez and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to
run a good race in his debut on the dirt.
Gunnevera (7-2) comes into the race for
trainer Antonio Sano with a 3-2-0 record in seven starts including a win in the
Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) and a second-place finish
in the Holy Bull. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
GUNNEVERA raced within striking range along the rail to the far
turn, steadied attempting to get through inside TALK LOGISTICS with five
sixteenths to go and altered course to the outside, rallied willingly into the
stretch and would up back toward the rail clearly besting the others.
With
a C Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Gunnevera
continues to show that he is a competitor on the Derby trail and his rally in
the stretch is what I like to see in young colts.
Dialed
In, the sire of
Gunnevera, won his only start as a two year old – a 6½ furlong maiden special
weight by a half a length at Churchill Downs in November 2010. As a three year
old, Dialed In won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes, finished second in a
9-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park, and won the
Florida Derby (G1) by a head over Shackleford en route to an eighth place-finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Gunnevera has been training well and he has room
to improve in his second start of the season.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Fountain
of Youth Stakes (G2) will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will
receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the
fourth-place finisher will receive five points.
Beginning
with the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), the points will increase to
100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and
10 points for fourth place.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Girvin, 50,
Joe Sharp, $249,800
2. Classic
Empire, 32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
3. Untrapped, 24,
Steve Asmussen, $120,000
4. El Areeb, 20,
Cathal Lynch, $300,000
5. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
6. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $260,000
7. Guest Suite,
15, Neil Howard, $144,040
8. Gunnevera, 14,
Antonio Sano, $807,200
9. Practical
Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000
10. Lookin At
Lee, 12, Steve Asmussen, $325,600
11. Uncontested,
11, Wayne Catalano, $100,729
12 One Liner, 10,
Todd Pletcher, $300,000
13. Irish War
Cry, 10, Graham Motion, $272,660
14. Mastery, 10,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
15. Mo Town, 10,
Tony Dutrow, $188,000
16. Royal Mo, 10,
John Sherriffs, $90,000
17. Local Hero,
10, Steve Asmussen, $40,000
18. Petrov, 8,
Ron Moquett, $150,000
19. Irap, 8, Doug
O’Neill, $90,000
20. Wild Shot, 7,
Rusty Arnold, II, $97,200
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Here’s the video
of the Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
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