©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights
reserved.
This Saturday, the
classic trail to Triple Crown glory takes us to Pimlico Race Couse in
Baltimore, Maryland, where Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist will attempt to
win the second jewel of the crown as the prohibitive 3-5 morning-line favorite
in the 141st running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1).
Prerace television
coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on the NBC Sports Network with race coverage
beginning at 5 p.m. on NBC.
Undefeated in
eight starts, Nyquist is the deserving favorite and the horse to beat. He’s the
second classic winner for the connections of trainer Doug O’Neill and owner J.
Paul Reddam who led I’ll Have Another to wins in the
2012 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1).
In addition to
Nyquist, Exaggerator (3-1) and Lani (30-1) also ran in
the Derby and they are two horses that should be solid in this race. Other horses
that could, perhaps, be factors are Stradivari (8-1) and Collected (10-1).
Knowing
as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a
classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s and my
research and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which is an analytical tool I use to measure
the graded stakes and classic potential of young horses.
In
2014, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® was developed into a software
program by my brother, Dallas, and it assigns each horse a numerical score
which is the indicator of that horse’s potential. The higher the score, the
more potential that horse has to become a quality stakes horse or classic
champion.
Let’s take a look
at the profiles of the horses in Preakness 141:
In
the Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile chart, Lani is the only horse with an A+ profile and he’s a much better horse
than his performance in the Derby would indicate. However, one never knows if a young
Thoroughbred with a high profile score like Lani will live up to his breeding.
And, there can be many contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile
score – Effinex is a good example of that.
Stradivari
has a B profile grade rating while Awesome Speed (30-1) and Exaggerator have a C profile. All the
others have low profile scores.
Our
research which is documented in my numerous blogs and website,
shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score which is a measurement of the breeding influences
found in the five-generation pedigree. If horses like Lani are not running close to their
profile score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full
potential needs to be investigated.
Horse
behavior is also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the
racetrack and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is
the addition of the Behavior Index which I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes (G2).
The
Behavior Index is proving to be a very valuable analytical tool, and, with its addition to the software,
Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral analysis to the final equation of
what it takes to produce a Classic Champion Thoroughbred or top quality graded
stakes competitor.
For
example, in the Behavior Index chart
above, of all the horses with low profile scores, Nyquist is the only one that
pops into the top four when you factor in behavioral analysis. Uncle
Mo, the sire
of Nyquist, also sired Abiding Star (30-1), Uncle
Lino (20-1)
and Laoban (30-1). However, their profile
scores are higher than Uncle Mo’s score and that makes them upgrades to the
Ancestral Herd.
In
the Behavior Index chart and Data Mining chart, I’ve noted that
Collected is a wildcard horse and that he could, perhaps, finish in two
separate spots. If he runs to his previous form, Collected should be
competitive. However, I’m curious to see just have far he really wants to run.
Also, in the Data Mining chart, when
you factor in data mining analysis, Nyquist and Exaggerator are now ranked as
the top two.
There’s
been some recent buzz about Uncle Lino and I had thought about listing him as a
horse that could, potentially, have been ranked fifth in the Behavior Index and Data Mining charts. But, I did not add any data mining to him.
Some
horses that have low profile scores, like Nyquist and Uncle Lino, can be moved
up because their Behavior Index makes them competitive, enabling them to
sometimes win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.
However, only a few horses with low profile scores, like Nyquist, can go on to
win races at the classic distance.
Let’s
take a look at the horses I like in Preakness Stakes (G1) 141.
LANI
is a sire-line
descendant of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with an A+ Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the potential to run better than what he
ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s a look at the chart call and video
of the Derby and an interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse.
LANI broke slow
and was bumped when DESTIN came in, settled off the inside, improved slightly
into the far turn, was forced extremely wide approaching the stretch, recovered
and kept on willingly.
I’m
willing to overlook his run in the Kentucky Derby and time will tell if Lani
has any classic potential.
In
the UAE Derby (G2), Lani and Polar
River were the
two horses I liked and his victory in that race earned him a spot in the
starting gate of Kentucky Derby 142. Here’s the video
and Racing Post chart call of his run in the UAE Derby:
[LANI] broke
awkwardly, chased leaders 4f out, led 110 yds out, ran on well.
Lani
recovered well after the horrible start to get up and secure the win over a
very good Polar River who was undefeated in four starts going into that race.
To
date, Lani has compiled a 3-1-0 record in seven starts for trainer Mikio
Matsunaga. His other significant races include a win in the Cattleya Sho Stakes
and a fifth-place finish in the one mile Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse. Here’s the video
of Hyacinth Stakes.
Despite
the fifth-place finish in the Hyacinth Stakes, Lani only lost by 2¾ lengths and
the final time of 1:35.40 is what I like to see colts run on the Derby Trail.
Tapit, the sire of Lani, was
undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity
(G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the
season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a
ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Much
was made about the quirky behavior of Lani leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
Here’s what Bloodstock agent and clocker Gary Young had to say about Lani in his
last work out on May 3:
The “Iron Horse” with a mind and a will
of his own entered the building at 8:35 a.m. He had the same look on him as
Russell Crowe in “Gladiator” as he entered the Coliseum. The plan was to break
off at the 3/4 pole if the beast so desired. He declined. This is a prime case
of the inmates running the prison but by the time he saw the 5/8 pole he
decided to work. He went smoothly throughout in :24.40 and :36.60 and got to
the wire under light coaxing in 1.01. He may lose the Derby but it won’t be
because he’s undertrained. After he pulled up from his work, he came to a walk
and was asked to walk another lap around the main track. I’m starting to
believe his toughness and attitude is the stuff Godzilla was made of.
Despite
his behavior and lackluster works at Churchill Downs leading up to the Derby, Lani
has the best breeding of all the horses in this race and room to improve off of
his ninth-place finish in Kentucky Derby 142.
If
Lani returns to his previous form in the UAE Derby and presses the pace, I look
for him to be competitive and, perhaps, upset at a nice price.
NYQUIST (3-5) is a sire-line
descendant of the Grey Sovereign, Nasrullah Ancestral Herd and Nasrullah
sired Bold Ruler. As such, Nasrullah is the sire-line foundation stallion for
many of the horses running in this race.
Since
breaking his maiden last June, Nyquist has won two G2 races and five G1’s
including a 3¼ length victory in the Florida Derby (G1) and a 1¼ length win in
the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s a look at the chart call and video
of the Derby and an interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse.
NYQUIST came away
in good order, was content to track the pace three deep, took closer order
under confident handling leaving the three-eighths pole, overpowered GUN RUNNER
soon into the lane, spurted clear while shifting towards the rail in
midstretch, kept on under a downturned right handed stick and held EXAGGERATOR
at bay.
Nyquist
is one of several colts on this year’s Triple Crown trail that were sired by Uncle
Mo and like
his sire he has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score. However,
Nyquist’s profile score is higher than Uncle Mo’s score and that makes him an
upgrade to the Ancestral Herd.
Uncle
Mo was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne
Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the
2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.
As
a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in
the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo
was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed
as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.
The
best Uncle Mo could run nine furlongs was third in the Wood Memorial Stakes and
it will be interesting to see if Nyquist can extend his competitiveness to 10
furlongs.
If
Nyquist runs to his previous form, he’ll be tough be beat in the Preakness.
EXAGGERATOR (3-1) is a sire-line
descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd which has been a powerful influence in American classic
racing. Since 1990 descendants of that herd have sired 30 Classic Champion
Thoroughbreds who have won 41 of the past 78 Triple Crown races for a 53%
strike rate.
Exaggerator
comes into this race with a 4-3-1 record in 10 starts for trainer Keith
Desormeaux including a fast closing second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby
(G1). Here’s a
look at the chart call and video
of the Derby and an interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse.
EXAGGERATOR
drafted back off the early pace saving ground, picked up steam into the far
turn, angled out and aggressively knifed his way between foes nearing the
quarter pole, swung out before being straightened into the stretch, then closed
strongly to narrow the gap.
With
a C grade rating, Exaggerator is ranked fourth in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart, but his Behavior Index and Data Mining variables make him competitive in this field. Also,
Jockey Kent Desormeaux’s decision to bring Exaggerator from off the pace has
been a big plus in that he has closed with authority in his last two races
winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and finishing second in the Kentucky Derby
(G1).
Curlin, the sire of Exaggerator, was an outstanding
racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800
in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1) and third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin
won the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
It
remains to be seen if Exaggerator can turn the tables on Nyquist who’s beat him
four times in previous races. However, I look for Exaggerator to be competitive
in Preakness Stakes (G1) 141.
STRADIVARI (8-1) is a sire-line
descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd and he comes
into the Preakness Stakes (G1) with a 2-0-0 record in three starts for trainer
Todd Pletcher. Despite his light seasoning, Stradivari’s won his last two races
by a combined 25¾ lengths including a 14-length romp in a nine furlong
allowance race at Keeneland on April 17. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
STRADIVARI settled in hand off of the pace,
popped the question with three furlongs to run, took over at will on the second
turn, swiftly drew away to score with panache.
The
ease in which Stradivari won shows the promise of things to come from this
talented colt, despite the fact that many of the horses in that race have low
profile scores.
Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of Stradivari, was a good
middle-distance runner that compiled an 8-7-0 record in 17 starts with
$5,754,720 in career earnings. Overall, he had seven wins and five second-place
finishes in 14 route races.
Medaglia
d’Oro finished second in his only start as a two year old but as a three year old
he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial
Stakes (G1) in route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
In
the Preakness Stakes (G1), Medaglia d’Oro finished eighth but rebounded from
that run to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He went on to complete
his racing season as a three year old with wins in the nine furlong Jim Dandy
Stakes (G2) and the 10 furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
As
a four year old, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine furlong Strub Stakes (G2), Oaklawn
Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1). In addition, he finished second in the
10 furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
At
the age of five, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine furlong Donn Handicap (G1) and
finished second in the 10 furlong Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (G1).
With
a B grade rating, Stradivari’s ranked second in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart and I would not be
surprised if he ran close that ranking. Also, in the Behavior Index and Data
Mining charts, Stradivari moves up into the top four if Collected fails to
run to his high ranking.
Despite
his light seasoning, Stadivari has room to improve in his second start of the
season. A recent bullet work out could have him primed to run the best race of
his career and, perhaps, classic glory.
COLLECTED (10-1) is also a sire-line
descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he comes into this race
with a 4-1-0 record in six starts for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert
including wins in the Sham Stakes (G3), Sunland Festival of Racing Stakes and
Lexington Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the nine-furlong
Sunland Festival of Race:
COLLECTED set the early pace drawing quickly clear, held a safe
advantage throughout and proved best.
Collected
is ranked sixth in the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® chart and I would not be surprised if he ran close
that ranking. When you factor in analysis for the Behavior Index and Data
Mining he moves up into the top four. However, time will tell if that
ranking is justified.
City
Zip, the sire
of Collected, ran mostly in sprint races, compiling a 9-5-4 record in 31 starts
with $818,225 in career earnings.
As
a two year old, City Zip won the Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2),
Saratoga Special (G2) and the Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, as a three year old
on the 2001 Kentucky Derby Trail, his best finish was a third place to Songandaprayer in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1).
Despite
his propensity for sprinting, at stud City Zip has sired his share of numerous,
good, sprinters as well as several middle-distance runners such as Acting
Zippy, Dayatthespa, With
a City and Personal Diary.
Collected
is a talented colt and a proven competitor. However, I’m not keen on him for
the win and I’m curious to see just how far he wants to run.
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