©2016 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, we’ll log a lot of miles on the Road to the Kentucky Derby which will take us to New
Orleans, Louisiana, and the nation of the United Arab Emirates where winners of
those races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in
Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
At
Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, UAE, a field of seven young
Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 16th running of the $2 million
UAE Derby (G2), and the sensational filly, Polar
River, will go
to the starting gate as the morning line, 3-5 favorite.
The
first post for Dubai World Cup Day is 8:40 a.m. EDT and the post for the UAE Derby
is 9:35 a.m. You can watch those races at AmWest
Entertainment, and here are the past performances
with race odds provided by Twinspires.com.
Undefeated
in four stats, Polar River comes into this race off of a three-quarter length
win in the Emirates UAE Oaks. Here’s the video
of that race.
The
past performances show that Polar River only won by a slim margin. But, with
300 meters left in the race, Polar River took command to lead by about four
lengths and was geared down in the final strides by Jockey Patrick Dobbs to
coast across the finish line.
Polar
River is a sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd
and with an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® she’s
one of the best bred horses in this race.
Congrats, the sire of Polar River, is a
full brother to Flatter and he did his best running at 8½ furlongs and farther. His most
notable stakes wins were the 7½ furlong Ack Ack Handicap, the Alysheba Stakes
and San Pasqual Handicap (G2), both at the 8½ furlongs, and he won 9 furlong
San Antonio Handicap (G2). In addition, Congrats finished second in the Santa
Anita Handicap (G1) and third in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), both at 10
furlongs.
If
Polar River runs true to her previous form, she’ll be tough in the Derby.
A
long shot I like in this race is Lani
(10-1) who’s nominated to the Triple Crown and comes into this race with a 2-1-0
record in five starts for trainer Mikio Matsunaga including a win in the
Cattleya Sho Stakes and a fifth-place finish in the one mile Hyacinth Stakes at
Tokyo
Racecourse. Here’s the video
of Hyacinth Stakes.
Despite
the fifth-place finish, Lani only lost by 2¾ lengths and the final time of
1:35.40 is what I like to see colts run on the Derby Trail.
Lani
has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and,
he also is a sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy, Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd.
Tapit , the sire of Lani, was
undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity
(G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the
season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a
ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Lani
has room to improve in his second start of the season and, with the added
distance in this race he could, perhaps, be competitive.
Reddam
Racing’s Frank
Conversation comes into the UAE Derby with a 3-0-1 record in six starts for
trainer Doug O’Neill, including wins in the California Derby and El Camino Real
Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields. Here’s the video
and chart call of the
El Camino Real:
FRANK CONVERSATION was allowed to
settle for a half mile, rallied three wide on the second turn then pushed to
the front in mid-stretch and held under steady urging.
The
final time of 1:50.64 is slower than what I like to see a young colt run in
nine furlongs and Frank Conversation will need to improve on that going
forward. He has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior
Index makes him competitive on the trail.
Quality
Road, the sire
of Frank Conversation, easily won his maiden debut, and only race as a two year
old, in November of 2008. In his debut as a three year old, he finished second
in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in January. He followed that in
February with a 4¼ length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and in
March, Quality Road ran to a 1¾ length win over Dunkirk in the Florida Derby (G1).
In
late April, Quality Road developed a quarter crack on his right front foot and
that prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby. After a three month
break, Quality Road returned to racing to win the Amsterdam Stakes (G2).
Quality
Road completed his racing career with wins in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3), Donn
Handicap (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Woodward Stakes (G1). He finished
third in the Travers Stakes (G1) and second in both the Jockey Club Gold Cup
Stakes (G1) and Whitney Handiciap (G1).
Regular
jockey Mario Gutierrez returns to the irons and I look for the pair to run a
good race.
*****
This
weekend with the running of the Louisiana Derby (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), the
winner of those races will receive 100 points, second-place finishers will
receive 40 points, third-place finishers will get 20 points and fourth-place
finishers will get 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby
qualifiers:
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Mohaymen, 70,
Kiaran McLaughlin, $760,350
2. Destin, 51,
Todd Pletcher, $338,000
3. Gun Runner,
51, Steve Asmussen, $249,200
4. Cupid, 50, Bob
Baffert, $540,000
5. Danzing Candy,
50, Cliff Sise, Jr., $240,000
6. Shagaf, 50,
Chad Brown, $240,000
7. Mor Spirit,
44, Bob Baffert, $416,800
8. Nyquist, 30,
Doug O’Neill, $1,700,000
9. Exaggerator,
26, Keith Desormeaux, $1,028,000
10. Whitmore, 24,
Ron Moquett, $300,000
11. Sunny Ridge,
23, Jason Servis, $505,600
12. Mo Tom, 22,
Tom Amoss $288,326
13. Laoban, 22,
Eric Guillot, $92,000
14. Forevamo, 20,
All Stall, Jr., $210,000
15. Zulu, 20,
Todd Pletcher, $79,200
16. Outwork, 20,
Todd Pletcher, $70,000
17. Flexibility,
15, Chad Brown, $232,500
18. Brody’s
Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
19.
Greenpointcrusader, 14, Dominick Schettino, $369,300
20. Swipe, 12, Keith
Desormeaux, $597,130
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