By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
Kentucky Derby 142 is in the history book.
Overall, Dallas, and I are pleased and excited that for a second year in a row, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.
Along the Derby trail, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® proved to be a valuable handicapping tool. And while the profile did not identify any of the exotics in this year’s Kentucky Derby, the Data Mining chart correctly picked Nyquist as the winner and Gun Runner to finish third while 65% of the Derby field was eliminated from wagering consideration. Here’s a look at the video of the Derby and an interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse.
The ability to know how a horse may perform on the racetrack is a valuable resource not only for handicappers but it also is a valuable tool for breeders who want to know how to make the best breeding decisions and for buyers at auction who want to make the wisest investments.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software unlocks the secret of the pedigree and Ancestral Herd to identify which horses have the potential to be top-quality stakes winners or, perhaps, a classic champion.
In the first chart below is a look at the original Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software analysis of this year’s Derby. In the chart below that is the wrap up analysis of Derby 142.
All three charts had good results but the Data Mining chart was the best, by far. In addition to correctly picking Nyquist and Gun Runner, I had also applied Data Mining variables to Creator, Exaggerator, Mor Spirit, Whitmore and Mo Tom. However, the variables added to Creator and Whitmore proved to be unjustified and when those variables are removed, they finish much closer to their true ranking indicated by their Behavior Index chart profile ranking.
In addition, it appears that Data Mining variables should have been applied to Tom’s Ready and when they are added he’s ranked much closer to his actual finish. However, Tom’s Ready, Mo Tom, Mor Spirit, Creator and Whitmore had no chance at finishing in the money as was indicated by their ranking in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Behavior Index charts.
Also, in my original Behavior Index and Data Mining analysis, I noted that Trojan Nation and Oscar Nominated had the potential to finish in two separate spots. When you adjust those charts to reflect where they actually finished, Trojan Nation finished 16th (ranked 17th) and Oscar Nominated finished 17th (ranked 18th). Also, I had downgraded Mohaymen below his profile ranking and when that is corrected, he finishes much closer to his ranking noted in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart.
Overall, the Data Mining chart (with the adjustment for Mohaymen) correctly identified six of the top seven finishers while the Behavior Index Chart picked five of the top eight finishers and the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart picked four of the top seven finishers. In addition, after the adjustments have been made to the final Data Mining chart, Mor Spirit, Danzing Candy and Whitmore finished exactly where they were ranked and many of the other horses finish very close to their profile ranking.
Only three of the horses with an A+ profile ranking – Suddenbreakningnews, Brody’s Cause and Destin – finished in the top seven in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart and Behavior Index chart. With an A+ profile ranking, they should have run much better. However, there can be many contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.
Our research, which is documented in my numerous blogs and on my website, shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score which is a measurement of the breeding influences found in the five-generation pedigree. If horses like Suddenbreakingnews, Lani, Brody’s Cause, Trojan Nation and Destin are not running close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full potential needs to be investigated.
Horse behavior is also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the racetrack and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is the addition of the Behavior Index which I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
The Behavior Index is proving to be a very valuable analytical tool, and, with its addition to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.
For example, in the original Behavior Index chart, of all the horses with low profile scores, Nyquist is the only one that pops into the top four. Nyquist and Outwork (now ranked ninth) were sired by Uncle Mo and like their sire they both have low profile scores. However, their profile scores are higher than Uncle Mo’s score and that makes them upgrades to the Ancestral Herd.
In addition, Gun Runner is now ranked eighth in the Behavior Index chart while Danzing Candy is ranked eleventh and My Man Sam is ranked thirteenth.
Some horses that have low profile scores, like Nyquist, Outwork, Gun Runner, Danzing Candy and My Man Sam can be moved up because their Behavior Index makes them competitive, enabling them to sometimes win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.
In my blog about the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), I noted that Outwork was a horse I liked because his Behavior Index showed me he had the potential to be competitive, and, indeed, he went on to win the race. However, only a few horses with low profile scores, like Nyquist, can go on to win races at the classic 10-furlong distance.
As previously noted, both Outwork and Danzing Candy have low profile scores and in the Blood Horse interactive Derby race sequence, Danzing Candy is right there with Gun Runner and Nyquist going into the far turn while Outwork is about two lengths off the leaders. From this race sequence and also validated by their profile score, it’s clear to see that 10 furlongs is not the best racing distance of Danzing Candy and Outwork. And, they probably would be most competitive in sprints and races up to 8½ or nine furlongs.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® can help horse owners know how best to place their Equine athletes, like Danzing Candy and Outwork, in key races so that they can be successful and live up to their full potential.
Indeed, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is a valuable, proven handicapping tool. But, perhaps its greatest long term strength is as a breeding and sales analytical tool. For the first time in the lengthy history of the Thoroughbred, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the only tool that takes the guesswork out of breeding and buying horses at auction.
The profile shows horse owners and breeders how a mare can upgrade or downgrade the stallion from the profile score of the foal from that mating. The foal should, at the least, have a score equal to the stallion and ideally higher which would be an upgrade to the Ancestral Herd.
Horse owners and breeders can upgrade their entire bloodstock by using the profile score to make the best breeding decisions resulting in less overbreeding and fewer potential equine welfare issues.
In addition, the profile shows buyers at auction how to make the best decisions and investments when buying horses. The profile shows buyers which horses may have the potential to be a top-quality stakes winner while a select few will have a profile score that indicates they could be a winner of a classic race like the Kentucky Derby.
Dallas and I hope that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will equip people with the important information they need in order to make the best decisions about the horses in their care so they can reach their full potential and be successful as a Thoroughbred racehorse.
If you own horses and are planning to breed them, or if you would like to purchase horses at auction, the empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will give you the important information you need to make the best decisions and investments when breeding bloodstock or buying horses at auction.
For a confidential consultation, please contact us at our website Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.