By
Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights
reserved.
Kentucky
Derby 142 is in the history book.
Overall,
Dallas, and I are pleased and excited that for a second year in a row, the empirical evidence
gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software shows that the
pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially
of their classic potential.
Along
the Derby trail, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® proved to be a
valuable handicapping tool. And while the profile did not
identify any of the exotics in this year’s Kentucky Derby, the Data Mining chart correctly picked Nyquist as the winner and Gun
Runner to
finish third while 65% of the Derby field was eliminated from wagering
consideration. Here’s a look at the video
of the Derby and an interactive race sequence from the Blood Horse.
The
ability to know how a horse may perform on the racetrack is a valuable resource
not only for handicappers but it also is a valuable tool for breeders who want
to know how to make the best breeding decisions and for buyers at auction who
want to make the wisest investments.
Like
an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are
made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical
conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be
found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the
foal.
The
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software unlocks the secret of the
pedigree and Ancestral Herd to identify which horses have the potential to be
top-quality stakes winners or, perhaps, a classic champion.
In
the first chart below is a look at the original Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® software analysis of this year’s Derby. In the chart below that is the
wrap up analysis of Derby 142.
All
three charts had good results but the Data
Mining chart was the best, by far. In
addition to correctly picking Nyquist and Gun Runner, I had also applied Data Mining variables to Creator, Exaggerator, Mor
Spirit, Whitmore and Mo
Tom. However,
the variables added to Creator and Whitmore proved to be unjustified and when
those variables are removed, they finish much closer to their true ranking
indicated by their Behavior Index chart
profile ranking.
In
addition, it appears that Data Mining variables
should have been applied to Tom’s
Ready and when
they are added he’s ranked much closer to his actual finish. However, Tom’s
Ready, Mo Tom, Mor Spirit, Creator and Whitmore had no chance at finishing in
the money as was indicated by their ranking in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Behavior Index charts.
Also,
in my original Behavior Index and Data Mining analysis, I noted that Trojan Nation and Oscar Nominated had the potential to finish in two separate
spots. When you adjust those charts to reflect where they actually finished,
Trojan Nation finished 16th (ranked 17th) and Oscar
Nominated finished 17th (ranked 18th). Also, I had downgraded
Mohaymen
below his profile ranking and when that is corrected, he finishes much closer
to his ranking noted in the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart.
Overall,
the Data Mining chart (with the
adjustment for Mohaymen) correctly identified six of the top seven finishers
while the Behavior Index Chart
picked five of the top eight finishers and the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart picked four of the top
seven finishers. In addition, after the adjustments have been made to the final Data Mining chart, Mor
Spirit, Danzing Candy and Whitmore finished exactly where they
were ranked and many of the other horses finish very close to their profile
ranking.
Only
three of the horses with an A+ profile ranking – Suddenbreakningnews, Brody’s
Cause and Destin – finished in the top seven in
the Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® chart and Behavior Index
chart. With an A+ profile ranking, they should have run much better. However, there
can be many contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile score –
Effinex is a good example of that.
Our
research, which is documented in my numerous blogs and on my website,
shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score which is a measurement of the breeding influences
found in the five-generation pedigree. If horses like Suddenbreakingnews, Lani, Brody’s Cause, Trojan Nation
and Destin are not running close to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching their full
potential needs to be investigated.
Horse
behavior is also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the
racetrack and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is
the addition of the Behavior Index which I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes (G2).
The
Behavior Index is proving to be a
very valuable analytical tool, and, with
its addition to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral
analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion
Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.
For
example, in the original Behavior Index
chart, of all the horses with low profile scores, Nyquist is the only one that
pops into the top four. Nyquist and Outwork (now ranked ninth) were sired
by Uncle Mo and like their sire they both have
low profile scores. However, their profile scores are higher than Uncle Mo’s
score and that makes them upgrades to the Ancestral Herd.
In
addition, Gun Runner is now ranked eighth in the Behavior Index chart while Danzing Candy is ranked eleventh and My
Man Sam is
ranked thirteenth.
Some
horses that have low profile scores, like Nyquist, Outwork, Gun Runner, Danzing
Candy and My Man Sam can be moved up because their Behavior Index makes them
competitive, enabling them to sometimes win races that are shorter than the
classic 10 furlong distance.
In
my blog about the nine-furlong Wood
Memorial Stakes (G1), I noted that Outwork was a horse I liked because his
Behavior Index showed me he had the potential to be competitive, and, indeed,
he went on to win the race. However, only a few horses with low profile scores,
like Nyquist, can go on to win races at the classic 10-furlong distance.
As
previously noted, both Outwork and Danzing Candy have low profile scores and in
the Blood Horse interactive Derby race sequence, Danzing Candy is right there
with Gun Runner and Nyquist going into the far turn while Outwork is about two
lengths off the leaders. From this race sequence and also validated by their
profile score, it’s clear to see that 10 furlongs is not the best racing
distance of Danzing Candy and Outwork. And, they probably would be most
competitive in sprints and races up to 8½ or nine furlongs.
The
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® can help horse owners know how best to
place their Equine athletes, like Danzing Candy and Outwork, in key races so
that they can be successful and live up to their full potential.
Indeed,
the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is a valuable, proven handicapping
tool. But, perhaps its greatest long term strength is as a breeding and sales
analytical tool. For the first time in the lengthy history of the Thoroughbred,
the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the only tool that takes the
guesswork out of breeding and buying horses at auction.
The
profile shows horse owners and breeders how a mare can upgrade or downgrade the
stallion from the profile score of the foal from that mating. The foal should,
at the least, have a score equal to the stallion and ideally higher which would
be an upgrade to the Ancestral Herd.
Horse
owners and breeders can upgrade their entire bloodstock by using the profile
score to make the best breeding decisions resulting in less overbreeding and
fewer potential equine welfare issues.
In
addition, the profile shows buyers at auction how to make the best decisions
and investments when buying horses. The profile shows buyers which horses may
have the potential to be a top-quality stakes winner while a select few will
have a profile score that indicates they could be a winner of a classic race
like the Kentucky Derby.
Dallas
and I hope that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will equip people
with the important information they need in order to make the best decisions
about the horses in their care so they can reach their full potential and be
successful as a Thoroughbred racehorse.
If
you own horses and are planning to breed them, or if you would like to purchase
horses at auction, the empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® will give you the important information you need to make the best
decisions and investments when breeding bloodstock or buying horses at auction.
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