©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
Kentucky Derby 141 is in the history book. Overall, my brother, Dallas, and I are pleased with the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software analysis of this Derby.
All three models had good results but Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in this herd.
Mubtaahij, ranked 1st, and Carpe Diem, ranked 5th, did not run to their ranking.
Data Mining Model Two
Rank, Horse Finish
4. American Pharoah 1
10. Firing Line 2
3. Dortmund 3
2. Frosted 4
6. Danzig Moon 5
7. Materiality 6
14. Keen Ice 7
1. Mubtaahij 8
15. Itsaknockout 9
5. Carpe Diem 10
16. Frammento 11
17. Bolo 12
11. Mr. Z 13
10. Ocho Ocho Ocho 14
9. Far Right 15
13. War Story 16
18. Tencendur 17
12. Upstart 18
5. International Star
19. El Kabeir
My friend, Cindy Bledsoe @BlueStageGroup, is the owner of the Blue Stage Group (www.bluestagegroup.com) and when I showed her the results of this Derby, she crunched some analytics for me and ran a variance report. Here’s what she found:
Calvin, these results are impressive. The Variance Report shows your average margin of accuracy between your ranking and the actual finish position. It measures the difference between your profile ranking and the actual order of finish.
THE TOP 6
● Your profile rankings for this model produced an average 2.5 position variance
to the final order of finish of the Top 6 finishers.
● If you exclude Firing Line, your accuracy was an astounding 1.4 position variance to the final order of finish of the Top 6 finishers.
For those who "throw out," one could argue you could throw out Firing Line as a fluke performance. I am not saying I do or don't, but some often analyze this way so I've provided it here. I am inclined to do so because your profile model came so close on ALL the other top 6 finishers.
REST OF THE FIELD
● Your profile rankings for this model produced an average overall 4 position variance to the final order of finish for the ENTIRE FIELD.
Here is how the entire field breaks down in terms of Finish Accuracy:
● 4 horses had a Finish Accuracy of either an exact or a 1 position variance to your profile rankings. Since 3 of the 4 (75%) were remarkably in the Top 6 finishers, your profile indicates extreme value to the betting public.
● 5 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 2 - 4 position variance.
This means 50% of the field finished at or within a 4 position variance to your profile rankings. This may not sound so exciting until you consider its value for exotic wagering.
● 6 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 5 - 6 position variance.
● 3 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 7 - 8 position variance.
Thank you, Cindy, for that report.
Dallas and I are certain that with more analysis and data mining, the software will be able to hone in much closer to the finish order of the horses not in the top tier.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™.
The ability of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software to predict specific outcomes of races is robust and its greatest strength lies in its potential to predict long term racing and breeding performance – predictive ability that is valuable in assisting horse owners and breeders take the guesswork out of breeding, training, and purchasing of racehorses.
In addition, we’re confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software can be a powerful handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby.