Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: January 2016

Friday, January 29, 2016

Holy Bull Stakes Racing Roundup

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to sunny Florida, Saturday, where Mohaymen, who is ranked 10^th in Kentucky Derby point standings, will go the starting gate as the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the 31^st running of the $350,000 Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

Undefeated in three starts, Mohaymen comes into this race for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin off of victories in the one mile Nashua Stakes (G2) and the 9-furlong Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of his Remsen win:

MOHAYMEN secured a prominent position after appearing to get away in good order, was patiently handled keeping an eye on the leader, alternating between the inside and the left border of the two path down the backstretch, pulling a bit on the bit but otherwise rating kindly, eased out into the two path past the five-sixteenths pole, continued to bide time until set down at the head of the stretch, won the duel with the runner up that followed to poke a head down in front with a furlong remaining, edged away while drifting out several paths in the course of doing so.

His finish time of 1:50.69 is slower than what I like to see a young colt run nine furlongs and I’d like to see him improve on that.

Mohaymen is a sire-line descendant of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has the breeding to be competitive in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2).

Tapit, the sire of Mohaymen, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Regular jockey Junior Alvarado returns to the irons and a bullet work out on January 21 could have Mohaymen ready to run a good race.

Greenpointcrusader (8-5) is a full brother to Algorithms, who is a young colt I liked on the 2012 Derby trail, and he comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Dominic Schettino. As a two year old, he was an impressive 4½-length winner of the Champagne Stakes (G1) and he finished seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of the Juvenile:

GREENPOINTCRUSADER was reserved early, fanned widest into the lane with a belated gain in the late stages.

Greenpointcrusader was never a factor in this race. However, he showed determination and made up good ground in closing from 12^th place at the top of the stretch to finish seventh. Like Mohaymen, Greenpointcrusader also has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, and his breeding suggests that he should run better than indicated by his performance in the Juvenile.

Bernardini, the sire of Greenpointcrusader, was a classic champion that compiled a 6-1-0 record in eight starts with $3,060,480 in career earnings.

He broke his maiden on his second start running a mile at Gulfstream Park in 1:35.57. That’s the kind of time I like to see a young colt run in a mile.

Bernardini went on from that win to victories in the Withers Stakes (G3), Preakness Stakes (G1), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), Travers Stakes (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and he finished second, a length behind the winner, Invasor, in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

It remains to be seen if Greenpointcrusader will live up to his breeding. He picks up the services of jockey John Velazquez and if he can return to his form in winning the Champagne Stakes (G1), he should be competitive in this race.

Conquest Big E (7-2) comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Mark Casse. He’s yet to win a stakes race and he comes into the Holy Bull with an eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and a 2-length win in an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Churchill Downs on November 28. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

CONQUEST BIG E stalked the pace early while between horses, made a bid three wide entering the lane, took over command in the stretch and drew clear late under a steady drive.

Conquest Big E is a long-striding, son of Tapit and he appears to be a talented colt. With a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, I look for him to be competitive, but, he’ll need to improve his game in order to secure the win from the other Tapit colt in this race, Mohaymen.

Overall, with all the chalky runners, this race looks like it may be a good race to watch and pass on wagering.

*****

Under the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000

2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000

3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000

4. Mor Spirit, 14, Bob Baffert, $246,800

5. Flexibility, 4, Chad Brown, $220,000

6. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130

7. Mo Tom, 21, Tom Amoss $188,326

8. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080

9. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000

10. Mohaymen, 10, Kiaran McLaughlin, $300,000

11. Cocked and Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840

12. Discreetness, 10, William “Jinks” Fires, $245,042

13. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375

14. Collected, 10, Bob Baffert, $80,000

15. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600

16. Rated R Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200

17. Toews On Ice, 4, Bob Baffert, $228,900

18. Vorticity, 4, James Lawrence II, $100,000

19. Tom’s Ready, 4, Dallas Stewart, $66,670

20. Gordy Florida, 4, Kenny Smith, $30,000

Withers Stakes Racing Roundup

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Empire State, Saturday, where Flexibility will go the starting gate as the 7-5, morning-line favorite in the 136^th running of the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time for the race will be 1:50 p.m. ET.

Flexibility comes into this race with a 2-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Chad Brown. As a two year old, Flexibility finished second in both the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). He finally won earned graded stakes honors earlier this month with a 4¼-length victory in the Jerome Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

FLEXIBILITY managed to escape being impacted by the stumbling rival to its left, glided into the two path, got rated keeping watch on a three-way pace dispute, tipped out when ready after stepping foot onto the far turn and issued a four wide challenge past the five-sixteenths pole, took over in short order, responded when given his cue. lengthening away from upper to mid-stretch, came out a bit in the last few jumps with the outcome no longer in doubt.

Flexibility showed his class in this race as he took control in the stretch and was the easy winner. He’s a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd, and, with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s been competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Bluegrass Cat, the sire of Flexibility, was a competitive colt and multiple graded stakes winner on the 2005 and 2006 Derby Trail.

As a two year old, Bluegrass Cat compiled a 3-0-0 record in four starts, winning the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). As a three year old, Bluegrass Cat compiled a 2-4-0 record in seven starts, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). He finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1).

Jockey Irad Ortiz retains the mount and I look for them to run a good race.

A mild long shot I like in this race is Adventist (5-1). There must be some buzz about this young colt, trained by Leah Gyarmati. He’s the morning-line third choice and he was heavily favored at 9-5 odds in his maiden debut last December, which he won by an impressive 11 lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ADVENTIST patiently kept watch on the leader from the two path on the turn, picked up interest and real estate as the half was being completed, took charge during the run from upper to mid-stretch, drifted out several paths, fighting off some right hand pressure all the while, but still drew off.

Adventist showed good speed in that race and was geared down in the final strides, by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Despite the fact that he’s yet to run in a route race, his Behavior Index and breeding indicate that he could, perhaps, step up in class and be competitive.

Any Given Saturday, the sire of Adventist, was a competitive sprinter and middle-distance horse on the 2006-2007 Kentucky Derby Trail. As a two year old, he won his maiden debut by a narrow nose, sprinting 5½-furlongs at Turfway Park in a time of 1:04.89. He followed that run with three length win in an 8½-furlong allowance at Keeneland Racecourse and he finished the season with a second-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

As a three year old, Any Given Saturday won the Sam F. Davis Stakes, finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to an eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

His other notable wins as a three year old include the 8½-furlong Dwyer Stakes (G2) and the 9-furlong Haskell Invitational (G1) and Brooklyn Handicap (G2).

Adventist drilled a 7-furlong work on January 15 and followed that with a sharp 4-furlong work on January 25. In addition, he picks up the services of jockey Kendrick Carmouche who’s the only jock in this race with positive Brisnet figures.

Adventist has room to improve in his second start as a three year old and if he successfully makes the jump in class he could be a huge factor in this race.

Vorticity (8-1) comes into this race with a 2-1-1 record in four starts for trainer James Lawrence, including a win in the Marylander Stakes and a second-place finish to Flexibility in the Jerome Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of the Jerome:

VORTICITY broke on top and maintained a prominent position, cut over to the inside, had the rider hold something in reserve while being pressed by a pair of opponents parked out in paths two and three respectively, got pounced upon by FLEXIBILITY just as his fellow pace combatants were in the first stages of backing away, surrendered the front soon afterwards, finished with good courage down the lane to garner the place.

Voticity showed good determination to finish second. But, with an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s yet to live up to his breeding.

Distorted Humor, the sire of Vorticity, made his first start in February of his three-year-old racing season and he did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Overall, he compiled an 8-5-3 record in 23 starts and his most notable stakes wins were in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2), Salvator Mile Handicap (G3), Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G3), Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) and the Ack Ack Handicap (G3).

As a stallion, Distorted Humor has sired numerous graded stakes winners, including the classic champions Funny Cide, winner of the 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and Drosselmeyer, winner of the 2010 Belmont Stakes (G1). Distorted Humor also is the grandsire of I’ll Have Another, winner of the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1).

A bullet work on January 15 could have Vorticity ready to run a good race. However, he’ll need to improve his game if he’s going to score the win.

King Kranz (8-1) and Sunny Ridge (5-2) should be early on the pace. I’m not too keen on either of them for the win or place. However, they could be a factor in the exotics.

*****

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000

2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000

3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000

4. Mor Spirit, 14, Bob Baffert, $246,800

5. Flexibility, 4, Chad Brown, $220,000

6. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130

7. Mo Tom, 21, Tom Amoss $188,326

8. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080

9. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000

10. Mohaymen, 10, Kiaran McLaughlin, $300,000

11. Cocked and Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840

12. Discreetness, 10, William “Jinks” Fires, $245,042

13. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375

14. Collected, 10, Bob Baffert, $80,000

15. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600

16. Rated R Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200

17. Toews On Ice, 4, Bob Baffert, $228,900

18. Vorticity, 4, James Lawrence II, $100,000

19. Tom’s Ready, 4, Dallas Stewart, $66,670

20. Gordy Florida, 4, Kenny Smith, $30,000

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Smarty Jones Stakes Wrap Up And The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Behavior Index

The Smarty Jones Stakes, which was raced at Oaklawn Park this past Monday, is another good example for my brother, Dallas, and I, that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software is a powerful handicapping tool and we are excited about the progress made since its debut in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Congratulations to all who may have used my Smarty Jones Stakes selections Discreetness, Gordy Florida and Synchrony as a two dollar wager on the exotics netted them the Exacta ($264.20) and Trifecta ($1,003.20). Here’s a look at how the horses finished and their Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking:

Race Finish Rank

1. Discreetness 2

2. Gordy Florida 3

3. Synchrony 1

4. Luna de Loco 6

5. Gray Sky 7

6. Toews on Ice 4

7. Charming Deputy 10

8. Shogood 9

9. Force It 8

10. Black Ops 5

11. Back Togetheragain 11

Toewes On Ice was the prohibitive favorite in this race. But his off the board finish was not too surprising as I noted in my blog that he has a low profile score and it appeared that in the Los Alamitos Futurity, the strong urging of jockey Martin Garcia may have been a contributing factor in his second-place finish to Mor Spirit.

In addition to the Smarty Jones Stakes, my selections for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) also proved profitable as a two dollar wager on the exotics netted them the Exacta ($37.80), Trifecta ($320.20) and Superfecta ($1,474.00) if you used Gun Runner who was my top honorable mention.

This year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) also provided a nice payoff to blog readers that used my picks, netting them the Exacta ($13.60), Trifecta ($109.50) and Superfecta ($570.00).

Our software picks for the Kentucky Derby (G1) were also very good, and, you can read about those results here. The Preakness results were even better and you can read about that here. In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software was also instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.

The biggest and most important development that Dallas and I have made to the software is the addition of a Behavior Index and it’s already showing tremendous results. Horse behavior is the final piece of the breeding puzzle and it has always been an important part of my analysis of the Thoroughbred. A good mind, the ability of a horse to focus during the heat of a race is so important.

Followers of my blog know that the study of Equine behavior was also important to the late Federico Tesio, a world-renowned owner, breeder and trainer of Thoroughbred racehorses. The right behavior is what Tesio looked for in the horses he bred or inspected at auction, and, during his lifetime, Tesio bred an incredible 21 Italiano Derby winners.

Horse behavior was also important to Franco Varola, a contemporary of Tesio and an equally-renowned writer, author and developer of the Dosage theory. Varola’s Dosage system (not the one commonly used today) consisted of five “aptitudinal” groups, and he was most interested in the behavioral traits and characteristics that each sire transmitted to his offspring.

In Typology of the Racehorse (JA Allen, 1974), Varola noted: “The differences between the five aptitudinal groups are of essence or character. It matters very little whether a racehorse is 16 hands or 16.2, or whether it is chestnut or brown; but it does matter a lot the way he behaves in actual racing, whether he is consistent or erratic, brilliant or slow, bellicose or resigned, in other words which pattern or mode of being is he expressing...It is of great utility to be able to distinguish between these various aptitudes, this being something that plays an effective part in mating.”

My own study, as well as my study of Tesio and Varola, laid the groundwork for my understanding about the importance of horse behavior. So, it was an easy decision to collaborate on a book about horse behavior with Thomas Herding Technique founder Kerry Thomas when he asked me to help him write about his Equine studies. The book we co-authored, Horse Profiling: The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes, was published by Trafalgar Square Books in April of 2012. In the book, we note that good horse behavior or Emotional Conformation is vitally important and it’s the final piece of the breeding puzzle necessary to produce equine champions.

That phrase “Emotional Conformation” was coined by my friend Larry Knepper (@LDknepper and @EmotionalEquine) who, at the time, was a consultant for Kerry Thomas and it was used to describe the type of work Thomas did in analyzing horse behavior.

With the addition of the Behavior Index to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral analysis as the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.

Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree of the horse if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.

For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.

In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.

Some unique features of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®:

It unlocks the secret of the Ancestral Herd influence.

Is a valuable handicapping tool that shows in the profile score which horses have the potential to be top-quality stakes winners or a classic winner of races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

Is a valuable breeding analytical tool that shows horse owners and breeders how a mare can upgrade or downgrade a stallion she is bred to through the profile score of the foal from that mating.

Shows if the foal has the potential to be a quality stakes horse or classic champion.

Shows horse owners how their entire bloodstock can be upgraded by using the profile score to help them make the best breeding decisions resulting in less overbreeding and fewer potential equine welfare issues.

Is a valuable Thoroughbred sales analytical tool that shows buyers how to make the best decisions and investments when buying horses at auction.

Shows which horses purchased at auction may have the potential to be a top-quality stakes winner while a select few will have a profile score that indicates they could be a winner of a classic race like the Kentucky Derby.

If you are planning to breed, or purchase at auction, a potential classic-winning Thoroughbred, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need to take the guesswork out of buying and breeding champion racehorses.

The empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will easily show you which horses have the potential to be classic champions while other horses may only be quality stakes winners.

The profile will give you the important information necessary to make the best decisions and investments when breeding or buying horses at auction. For a free consultation, please contact us at my website Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC.