Monday, May 18, 2015

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Identifies Ancestral Herd Influence, Potential Of Competitors In Preakness Stakes 140



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Preakness Stakes (G1) is in the history book. Dallas and I are pleased with the results of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software analysis which proved to be even better than the Kentucky Derby where we picked five of the top six finishers as the top tier of horses in that race.
All three Preakness Stakes (G1) models had good results but the best was the Original Ranking which is the actual score of the horse before data mining. Only American Pharoah and Firing Line had data mining in that group:

Original Ranking
Classic Champion                                                  Thoroughbred Profile

Rank, Horse                                          Finish
1. Danzig Moon (15-1)        395.63          6
2. Dortmund (7-2)              391.88          4
3. Divining Rod (12-1)        385.63          3
4. American Pharoah (4-5) 384.38*         1
5. Mr. Z (20-1)                   382.50          5
6. Firing Line (4-1)             380.63*        7
7. Bodhisattva (20-1)         368.75          8
8. Tale of Verve (30-1)        367.50          2
*Data Mining Analysis


Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve were the only two that did not run close to their ranking.

Dortmund was ranked 2nd and he finished 4th.

Diving Rod was ranked 3rd and he finished 3rd.

American Pharoah was ranked 4th and he finished 1st.

Mr. Z was ranked 5th and he finished 5th.

Firing Line was ranked 6th and he finished 7th.

Bodhisattva was ranked 7th and he finished 8th.


After looking at the Derby and Preakness, I believe that Firing Line's seventh-place finish is probably more true to where he should be ranked in this herd. I have some thoughts about American Pharoah, too, but I want to do more research before commenting on his success.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software has a proven record of consistency.
In the Kentucky Derby, all three models had good results but the Derby Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in that race. And, you can read about those results here.
In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software was instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile.
As my brother, Dallas, and I refine the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software, I believe that we will eventually be able to pick the exact order of finish or be extremely close.
For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.
In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.

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