Thursday, April 30, 2015

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd To Determine Outcome of Kentucky Derby 141



By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

          This year’s Kentucky Derby blog will always be special as I get to share a byline with my brother, Dallas, who, for the past year, has tirelessly labored to develop and perfect the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software which is an analytical tool I use to measure the classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
For that, I am truly thankful.
I’ll write more about the software later.
        For the past eight months, we’ve travelled down the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” which, now, finally brings us to Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky where this Saturday a field of 20 young Thoroughbreds will enter the starting gate in Kentucky Derby 141.
However, my road to the Kentucky Derby has been a long one spanning 20 years of research and study. Early on in my journey down the Derby Trail I quickly learned that, in addition to the influence of the sire and dam on offspring, the influence of sire lines or what I now refer to as the Ancestral Herd is of primary importance in determining classic potential in young Thoroughbreds.
Followers of my blog also know that my study of the late Federico Tesio, a world-renowned owner, breeder and trainer of Thoroughbred racehorses, and Franco Varola, a contemporary of Tesio and an equally-renowned writer, author and developer of the Dosage theory, has had a tremendous impact on how I determine if a young horse has star potential.
Varola, in his landmark book, Typology of the Racehorse (published in 1974 by J.A. Allen & Company Limited), noted the importance of sire lines in the shaping of offspring: “the prepotency of a few great continuators of the breed is not a matter of individuals alone but of entire sire lines. I am aware that it is not technically correct to speak of prepotency of bloodlines, but the phenomenon is worth noting.”
Indeed, Varola was genius and his observation, prophetic. Since publication of his book, descendants of the Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector and Sunday Silence Ancestral Herds have dominated the world of Thoroughbred horseracing and continue to dominate the sport to this very day.
Study of Tesio and Varola confirmed my own research. In addition to those studies, research and study of Old Testament scripture from the Holy Bible was a big factor that shaped my awareness and concept of the Ancestral Herd.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
For some time now, I’ve been working on a way to classify and define my studies and that led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile which is comprised of the proprietary Tesio Index and Ancestral Herd Index. The profile assigns each horse a numerical score. The higher the score, the more potential that horse has to become a classic champion.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™.
I introduced the profiles in my 2013 Derby blog and, for the past two Derbies, the scores, which were calculated by hand, easily eliminated over half of the field from wagering consideration.
This year the profiles have been developed into a software analytical tool by my brother, Dallas, and, for the first time, we’ve been able to track the performance of the three year olds on the Derby Trail.
The results have been impressive. Let’s take a look at the profiles for this year’s Derby field:


Rank, Horse, Odds                    Classic Champion
                                                Thoroughbred Profile

1. Mubtaahij (20-1)                     402.50*
2. Frosted (15-1)                         401.25
3. Danzig Moon (30-1)                 395.63
4. Dortmund (3-1)                       391.88
5. International Star (20-1)         388.13
6. Carpe Diem (8-1)                    386.88
7. American Pharoah (5-2)          384.38*
8. Materiality (12-1)                    382.50
9. Stanford (30-1)                       382.50
10. Mr. Z (50-1)                          382.50
11. Firing Line (12-1)                  380.63*
12. Far Right (30-1)                    380.63*
13. Upstart (15-1)                       380.63
14. War Story (50-1)                   380.00
15. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1)        379.38
16. Keen Ice (50-1)                     378.75
17. Itsaknockout (30-1)              375.00
18. Bolo (30-1)                           362.50
19. El Kabeir (30-1)                    362.50
20. Tencendur (30-1)                 352.88
*Data Mining Analysis


As you can see from the analysis, American Pharoah is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and he is ranked seventh with a moderate profile score of 384.38. A common discrepancy between analysis and horse performance is that some horses fail to live up to their potential while others like American Pharoah seem to exceed what is apparent in their breeding.
This raises the question: Why?
Data mining can answer that question. Data mining uses the processing power of modern technology to unlock secrets in the pedigree and quantify the influence of the Ancestral Herd.
We are currently testing the ability of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software to predict specific outcomes of races. While the software is robust in this ability, its greatest strength lies in its potential to predict long term racing and breeding performance – predictive ability that is valuable in assisting horse owners and breeders in making breeding, purchasing, and racing decisions.
In addition to the original analysis, Dallas and I built two data mining models to allow for horses like American Pharoah, Firing Line and Far Right who seem to exceed what is evident in their pedigrees.


Data Mining Model One
Rank, Horse, Odds                            

1. Mubtaahij (20-1)
2. Frosted (15-1)
3. Dortmund (3-1)
4. International Star (20-1)
5. Carpe Diem (8-1)
6. Danzig Moon (30-1)
7. American Pharoah (5-2)
8. Materiality (12-1)
9. Firing Line (12-1)
10. Far Right (30-1)
11. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1)
12. Stanford (30-1)
13. Mr. Z (50-1)
14. Upstart (15-1)
15. War Story (15-1)
16. Keen Ice (50-1)
17. Itsaknockout (30-1)
18. Bolo (30-1)
19. El Kabeir (30-1)
20. Tencendur (30-1)


Data Mining Model Two
Rank, Horse, Odds

1. Mubtaahij (20-1)         
2. Frosted (15-1)
3. Dortmund (3-1)
4. American Pharoah (5-2)
5. International Star (20-1)
6. Carpe Diem (8-1)
7. Danzig Moon (30-1)
8. Materiality (21-1)
9. Stanford (30-1)
10. Firing Line (12-1)
11. Far Right (30-1)
12. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1)
13. Mr. Z (50-1)
14. Upstart (15-1)
15. War Story (15-1)
16. Keen Ice (15-1)
17. Itsaknockout (30-1)
18. Bolo (30-1)
19. El Kabeir (30-1)
20. Tencendur (30-1)


Much of what we do in calculating the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profileis proprietary and, as such, Dallas and I decided to not publish the data mining profile scores.
In all three models, the top seven horses consisting of Mubtaahij, Frosted, Dortmund, International Star, Carpe Diem and American Pharoah are constant with little up or down movement.
In two of the models, three horses rank in the top three: Mubtaahij, Frosted and Dortmund. In all three models, four horses rank in the top five: Mubtaahij, Frosted, Dortmund and International Star. In the original analysis, Danzig Moon is ranked third. In Data Mining Model One, Carpe Diem is ranked fifth. In Data Mining Model Two, American Pharoah is ranked fourth.
So how predictive are these models in picking the order of finish in Kentucky Derby 141? Perhaps a clue can be found in the major prep races leading up to the Derby. Let’s take a look at those races:


ARKANSAS DERBY

Race Finish, Horse       Classic Champion
                                    Thoroughbred Profile

6. Win the Space             398.13
5. Bold Conquest             386.88
4. Madefromlucky            386.25
1. American Pharoah       384.38*
3. Mr. Z                           382.50
2. Far Right                     380.63*
7. The Truth Or Else       343.75
8. Bridget’s Big Luvy       333.13


In the Arkansas Derby (G1), American Pharoah was the runaway favorite who won by an easy eight lengths. However, only three-quarters of a length separated Far Right, who finished second, from the fifth-place finisher, Bold Conquest. Win the Space was still a maiden that had finished third in his previous two races and he was my long shot pick. Despite his sixth-place finish, he only missed finishing second by two lengths.
In my blog I wrote: American Pharoah will go to the starting gate as the 1-2 morning-line favorite in the 79th running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. …American Pharoah comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in four starts … including wins in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), FrontRunner (G1) and Rebel (G2) stakes.
Last month, American Pharoah looked impressive winning the Rebel Stakes (G2) by 6¼-lengths. …American Pharoah is the deserving favorite and I look for him to run a good race. …
A long shot I like in this race is Win the Space (30-1) who’s yet to break his maiden and comes into this Derby with two third-place finishes. …In both races, Win the Space chased fast fractions and closed from dead last to finish a respectable third. That’s pretty good considering that his pedigree indicates Win the Space should run his best as the races get longer.
Win the Space earned a 95 Brisnet Speed figure in his last race and he has room to improve in his third start of the season. …I know it’s a big step up in class. But, Win the Space has the best pedigree in this herd and if he lives up to his breeding, he, perhaps, could pull off the upset at a nice price.
Madefromlucky (6-1) comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 2-2-1 record in six stars. He finished first in his debut as a three year old at Gulfstream Park and followed that up with a second-place finish to American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes (G2).
He’s yet to win a stakes race, but Madefromlucky has room to improve in his third start of the season and his pedigree indicates that he should be more competitive stretching out to nine furlongs.
I look for him to run a good race.
Bold Conquest (20-1) also has room to improve in his third start of the season…In his debut as a three year old in the Southwest Stakes (G3), Bold Conquest finished a respectable fourth, beaten by only 3½-lengths, off of a four month layoff. He followed that run with a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2).
Another move forward off of his last run will make him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Mr. Z (10-1), The Truth or Else (15-1) and Far Right (9-2) who are proven competitors but they’ll need to improve their game considerably in order to secure the win.


BLUE GRASS

Race Finish, Horse        Classic Champion
                                     Thoroughbred Profile

2. Danzig Moon               395.63
1. Carpe Diem                 386.88
3. Ocho Ocho Och           379.38
6. Gorgeous Bird             358.13
5. Classy Class                348.13
4. Frammento                 335.13
7. Unrivaled                    390.63 – Throw Out
8. Pepper Roani               – No score


          In the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Unrivaled had a high profile score but, because of his poor past performances, he was a long shot pick at best. The scores for Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho placed them squarely in the top three. Gorgeous Bird has a decent profile score but he failed to live up to his breeding. I did not have time to calculate a score for Pepper Roani and his pedigree suggested that he would not be a factor in this race.
          In my blog I wrote: Carpe Diem has been tabbed as the even money morning-line favorite in the 91st running of the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1). …In my 2015 Kentucky Derby Outlook top ten list, Carpe Diem was ranked eighth and he was one of the few two year olds, I thought, who could be competitive on the trail as a three year old. I’m looking forward to see how he will handle the stretch out to nine furlongs.
He’s the deserving favorite and I look for him to be competitive.
Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1) is another young colt I wrote about in my 2015 Kentucky Derby Outlook …He comes into this race for trainer James Cassidy with a 3-0-0 record in four starts including wins in the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3). …Whatever the reason for his lackluster performance in the San Felipe, Ocho Ocho Ocho has the breeding to be competitive, and, I’ll be watching to see if he lives up to that breeding….
 Danzig Moon (8-1) also has good breeding and he comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Mark Casse. In his last, Danzig Moon crawled home to fourth-place in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and he, too, will need to improve his game considerably.
Finally, honorable mention goes to a couple of horses I liked in their last race. Classy Class (6-1) finished third in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and Gorgeous Bird (8-1). Finished fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and, if they can improve off of that performance, they could, perhaps, be a factor in this race.


FLORIDA DERBY

Race Finish, Horse         Classic Champion
                                      Thoroughbred Profile

1. Materiality                   382.50
2. Upstart                        380.63
4. Itsaknockout               375.00
3. Ami’s Flatter                360.63
5. Dekabrist                     358.75
7. My Point Exactly          337.50
6. Indianaughty               332.50
8. Quimet                        368.75 – Throw Out
9. Jack Tripp                   376.25 – Throw Out


          In the Florida Derby (G1), Quimet and Jack Tripp have profile scores that placed them in the top four. But, because of their poor past performances on the racetrack, they were only considered as long shots. Materiality, with a profile score of 382.50, was ranked first and he finished first. Upstart was ranked second and he finished second.
Itsaknockout, ranked third with a profile score of 375.00, and fourth-ranked Ami’s Flatter landed squarely in the top four. Dekabrist hit the mark in fifth place. My Point Exactly and Indianaughty hit almost on the mark.
In my blog I wrote: Upstart, ranked 9th in Kentucky Derby point standings, has been tabbed as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 68th running of the $1 million Besilu Stables Florida Derby (G1). …In six starts, Upstart has never been out of the money and he comes into this race with a 3-2-1 record for trainer Rick Violette. ...I look for Upstart to be competitive Saturday. However, if he’s going to secure the win he’ll need to return to his racing form in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) which he won by 5½ lengths in the time of 1:43.61.
Materiality (7-2) did not race as a two year old and he comes into this race undefeated in two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. In his last start, the lightly-raced Materiality looked professional storming to the lead in the stretch of the Islamorada Handicap to win by an impressive 5¾ lengths.
The time of 1:49.32 for the nine furlongs is decent and a repeat of that form will make him competitive in the Florida Derby (G1).
Itsaknockout (2-1), ranked 8th in point standings, is another lightly-raced colt, trained by Pletcher, and he comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in three starts. …
“In his second start, Itsaknockout showed good speed winning his debut as a three year old, running a mile at Gulfstream Park, in the time of 1:35.04. That’s what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail and return to that form will make Itsaknockout competitive in the Florida Derby (G1).
Ami’s Flatter (8-1), ranked 14th in point standings, has yet to win a stakes race and he comes into the Florida Derby (G1) with 1-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Josie Carroll.
In his last start, Ami’s Flatter was a five length runner-up to Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He ran that race in the time zone of about 1:44 and change and he’ll need to improve on that in order win the Florida Derby (G1).


LOUISIANA DERBY

Race Finish, Horse         Classic Champion
                                      Thoroughbred Profile

1. International Star         383.13*
2. Stanford                       382.50
9. Mr. Z                            382.50
3. War Story                     380.00*
4. Keen Ice                       378.75
5. Fusaichi Flame            378.13
6. St. Joe Bay                  342.51
7. Defondo                       336.88
8. A Day in Paradise        295.63


In the Louisiana Derby (G2), here’s an example of how two competitive horses with low profile scores – International Star and War Story – were moved up after data mining to reflect how well they performed on the racetrack.
International Star, with a profile score of 383.13, was ranked first and he finished first. Stanford was ranked second and he finished second. The scores for the rest of the field, except for Mr. Z, are almost on the mark as to where they finished in the race.
Mr. Z’s profile score indicates that he should have been competitive in this race but he was not a factor. Two weeks later, he came back and finished third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). And, if he lived up to his breeding, that’s where Mr. Z should have finished in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
In my blog I wrote: International Star will go to the starting gate as the 3-1 morning line favorite in the 102nd running of the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2). …He’s already faced several horses in this field and he’s a proven competitor at the Fair Grounds winning both the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Start Stakes (G2) earlier this season.
I look for International star to be competitive in this race and I’ll be watching closely to see how well he handles the stretch out to nine furlongs.
Stanford (5-1) is a new horse in this herd and he also has the breeding to be competitive. …He finished second to stablemate Materiality in the Islamorada Handicap but was disqualified and placed sixth. 
This race will be the second start for Stanford at nine furlongs and he has room to improve in his third start of the season as a three year old. A recent bullet work out could have him ready and I look for him to run a good race.
War Story (4-1) has never finished worse than second in four starts and he comes into this race for trainer Tom Amoss off of two back-to-back second place finishes to International Star in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2).
War is always competitive and I look for him to run a good race. A recent bullet work could have him ready to run a career best race.
Mr. Z (4-1) is another new horse in this herd. He comes into this race with a 1-4-3 record in 10 starts for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and he picks up veteran jockey Kent Desormeaux who rode War Story in the Risen Star.
Mr. Z should be competitive, but I don’t look for him to win.


SANTA ANITA DERBY

Race Finish, Horse        Classic Champion
                                     Thoroughbred Profile

1. Dortmund                   391.88
4. Prospect Park              370.00
2. One Lucky Dane          363.75
3. Bolo                            362.50
6. Bad Read Sanchez      358.13
5. Cross The Line            343.75


          In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the profile scores were a pretty good indicator as to where the horses would finish in this race. Prospect Park should have run better but, afterward, trainer Clifford Sise disclosed that he may have been hampered with a health issue as he exited the race with a fever. Bad Read Sanchez and Cross The Line hit almost on the mark.
          In my blog I wrote: Dortmund has been tabbed as the 3-5 morning line favorite in the 78th running of the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1). …Dortmund, ranked sixth in Kentucky Derby point standings, comes into this race undefeated in five starts for trainer Bob Baffert and, without question, he is the deserving favorite. His perfect run includes wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), Robert B. Lewis (G3) and the Sand Felipe (G2) stakes. A big win Saturday could make him the Derby favorite. …
Prospect Park (7-2), currently 20th in point standings, perhaps is the only horse in this herd that can pull the upset over Dortmund. …Prospect Park comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record in six starts for trainer Clifford Sise and he has room to improve in his third start of the season. …I look for Prospect Park to run a good race.
One Lucky Dane (5-1) and Bolo (4-1) both have good speed and if they can carry that speed to nine furlongs they could be a factor in this race.
One Lucky Dane comes into this race for Baffert with a 2-1-1 record in five starts and he’ll need a first or second place finish in order to qualify for the Derby. Bolo, also will need to finish first or second and he comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in four starts for trainer Carla Gaines.


SUNLAND DERBY

Race Finish, Horse         Classic Champion
                                      Thoroughbred Profile

2. Where’s the Moon         397.51
1. Firing Line                    380.63*
5. Dirt Monster                 355.63
7. Malibu Mogul               350.63
3. Pain and Misery           340.63
6. Why Two                      334.38
4. Tiznow R J                   322.50

In the Sunland Derby (G3), Firing Line and Where’s the Moon were the clear, top two finishers, while others in this field failed or exceeded what their breeding indicated they were capable of running.
In my blog I wrote: Firing Line comes into this race with a 1-3-0 record in four starts for trainer Simon Callaghan including two second-place finishes to Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). …He’s been running against the likes of Dortmund, ranked third in point standings, and Mr. Z, ranked 14th, and he looms as the horse to beat.
One horse I like and who could, perhaps, pull off the upset is Where’s the Moon (6-1) who comes into this race with a nice win in the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park on February 21. …The breeding of Where’s the Moon, by Malibu Moon out of a Storm Cat mare, Aldiza, is one of the best pedigrees in this field and his tail-female line is the same as Far From Over who was one of my long shot picks in the Withers Stakes (G3). Aldiza, the dam of Where’s the Moon, is the second dam of Far From Over.
I look for Where’s the Moon to run a good race.


UAE Derby

Race Finish, Horse         Classic Champion
                                      Thoroughbred Profile

1. Mubtaahij                    402.50*       
2. Maftool                        351.25
3. Golden Barrows
4. Motaa
5. Tap That
6. Sir Fever
7. Faithful Creek
8. Dear Domus
9. My Johnny Be Good     330.63
10. Alnajem Alfaiz


I did not have time to calculate the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile of all the horses in the UAE Derby (G2). However, by far, Mubtaahij had the best pedigree in this herd and he was my clear favorite [And, I like him in the Kentucky Derby, too]. I also liked Maftool in this race.
In my blog I wrote: At Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, UAE, a field of 10 young Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 15th running of the $2 million UAE Derby (G2), and South African trainer Michael de Kock will send Mubtaahij, winner of the 9½ furlong Al Bastakiya, to the starting gate as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.
In six starts, Mubtaahij has compiled 3-1-0 record and in the Al Bastakiya he was a 2½-length victor, defeating the Uruguayan Triple Crown Champion, Sir Fever (3-1), who is also entered in this race. …I look for Mubtaahij to run another good race in the UAE Derby (G2).
Maftool (9-2) comes into this race with a 3-2-1 record in seven starts for trainer Saeed bin Soor including wins in the group three Al Tayer Motors UAE 2000 Guineas and the Tattersalls Sommerville Stakes. …I don’t look for Maftool to win this race, but he could be a factor in the exotics.


WOOD MEMORIAL

Race Finish, Horse         Classic Champion
                                      Thoroughbred Profile

1. Frosted                        401.25
3. El Kabeir                     362.50
4. Daredevil                     359.38
2. Tencendur                   352.88*
5. Tiz Shea D                   351.38
6. Toasting Master           389.38 – throw out
7. Lieutenant Colonel      325.00


In the Wood Memorial (G1), Frosted, El Kabeir, Daredevil and Tencendur had the highest Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile scores and they finished in the top four. Frosted, with a profile score of 401.25, was ranked first and he finished first. Tencendur had a low score but data mining moved him up into the top four. Toasting Master has a high profile score but was considered a long shot. Tiz Shea D and Lieutenant Colonel hit squarely on the mark.
In my blog I wrote: Daredevil has been tabbed as the 9-5 morning line favorite in the 91st running of the $1 million Twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). …Daredevil is a new horse in this herd and he comes into the Wood with a 2-1-0 record in four starts…Daredevil is a talented young colt. I look for him to be competitive but I’m not too keen on him for the win. …
To date, El Kabeir has been the dominate horse in this New York herd and he comes into the Wood with a 4-2-1 record in eight starts…including victories in the Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2), Jerome (G3) and Gotham (G3) stakes. With the extra distance and the addition of the speedy Daredevil to this race, El Kabeir could receive his greatest challenge, yet. ...El Kabeir always brings his game to the racetrack and I look for him to run a good race.
Frosted (5-2), the morning line 5-2 second choice, is the mystery horse in this race. His fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) was a disaster and did not reflect the form of his previous races. To date, he’s compiled a 1-4-0 record in six starts for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
Frosted has one of the best pedigrees in this herd but he’s yet to win a stakes race or fully live up to his breeding. Despite his good breeding, the Wood will be his last chance to earn a spot in the Derby starting gate.
Honorable mention goes to Toasting Master (20-1) who also has a good pedigree but, he has yet to fully live up to that breeding. However, he did round out the superfecta in my blog about the Gotham Stakes (G3). …


So, there’s a look at the race results of the major prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profilescores, for the most part, were a good predictor of the finish order.
To recap the analysis for Kentucky Derby 141, in all three models the top seven horses consisting of Mubtaahij, Frosted, Dortmund, International Star, Carpe Diem and American Pharoah are constant with little up or down movement.
In two of the models, three horses rank in the top three: Mubtaahij, Frosted and Dortmund. In all three models, four horses rank in the top five: Mubtaahij, Frosted, Dortmund and International Star. In the original analysis, Danzig Moon is ranked third. In Data Mining Model One, Carpe Diem is ranked fifth. In Data Mining Model Two, American Pharoah is ranked fourth.
Overall, Dallas and I are pleased with the results we’ve achieved this year with the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profilesoftware. We’re confident the software can be a powerful handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby.
In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profilesoftware can also be a powerful, valuable tool for owners and breeders of Thoroughbreds, helping them take the guesswork out of breeding, training, and purchasing of racehorses.

3 comments:

  1. Great work Calvin (and Dallas). Happy Derby Week and all the best.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lcdrball,

      Thanks my friend. Same to you.

      On another note:
      Stanford, ranked 9th in the original analysis, is scratched and all horses below him move up one.

      Frammento (50-1) draws into the field and he lands in the 17th spot between Itsaknockout and Bolo.

      Delete
  2. Great read as usual Calvin. Always enjoy reading your pedigree analysis.

    My picks are: 1 American Pharoah
    2 Danzig Moon
    3 Mubtaahij
    4 Keen Ice
    5 Upstart
    6 Ocho Ocho Ocho

    Quick question: What keeps Keen Ice so low on this list? And was Curlin low on your profile if you go back to the 2007 crop?

    ReplyDelete