Monday, June 8, 2015

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Unlocks Secret of Ancestral Herd To Pick Belmont Stakes Superfecta

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Belmont Stakes (G1) is in the history book. American Pharoah rules as the newest member of that exclusive herd known as Triple Crown winners and it was exciting to watch his run to fame and glory.
The Belmont resulted much like our Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile models indicated it would, and overall, Dallas and I are pleased with the results. In all four models the software picked three of the top four finishers – American Pharoah, Frosted and Mubtaahij – as key horses in this race.
However, Data Mining Model Three with the long shot wild card horse, Keen Ice, was the best, by far. In that model, the software correctly identified the top four finishers to nail the Belmont superfecta – American Pharoah, Frosted, Keen Ice and Mubtaahij:


Rank, Horse, Odds                    Finish
1. Keen Ice (20-1)                      3
2. Frosted (5-1)                         2
3. Mubtaahij (10-1)                   4
4. American Pharoah (3-5)        1
5. Materiality (6-1)                    8
6. Madefromlucky (12-1)           6
7. Tale of Verve (15-1)               7
8. Frammento (30-1)                 5

In the top tier of horses:

Keen Ice was ranked 1st and finished 3rd.

Frosted was ranked 2nd and finished 2nd.

Mubtaahij was ranked 3rd and finished 4th.

American Pharoah was ranked 4th and finished 1st.

In the bottom tier:

Materiality was ranked 5th and finished 8th.

Madefromlucky was ranked 6th and finished 6th.

Tale of Verve was ranked 7th and finished 7th.

Frammento was ranked 8th and finished 5th.

You can view the profiles for this year’s Belmont Stakes here.
This is the first year the profiles have been calculated using the software developed by my brother, Dallas, and, overall, we were pleased with the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software analysis of Kentucky Derby 141.
All three models had good results but the Derby Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in that race. And, you can read about those results here.
The Preakness results were even better and you can read about that here. Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve were the only two horses that did not run close to their ranking. Dortmund was ranked 2nd and he finished 4th. Diving Rod was ranked 3rd and he finished 3rd. American Pharoah was ranked 4th and he finished 1st. Mr. Z was ranked 5th and he finished 5th. Firing Line was ranked 6th and he finished 7th. Bodhisattva was ranked 7th and he finished 8th.
In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software was also instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.

Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile.
As my brother, Dallas, and I refine the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software, I believe that we will eventually be able to pick the exact order of finish or be extremely close.
For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.
In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.

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