Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Identifies Ancestral Herd Influence, Potential Of Competitors In Preakness Stakes 140

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Preakness Stakes (G1) is in the history book. Dallas and I are pleased with the results of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software analysis which proved to be even better than the Kentucky Derby where we picked five of the top six finishers as the top tier of horses in that race.

All three Preakness Stakes (G1) models had good results but the best was the Original Ranking which is the actual score of the horse before data mining. Only American Pharoah and Firing Line had data mining in that group:

Original Ranking

Classic Champion                                                  Thoroughbred Profile™

Rank, Horse                       Finish

1. Danzig Moon (15-1)        6

2. Dortmund (7-2)              4

3. Divining Rod (12-1)        3

4. American Pharoah (4-5) 1

5. Mr. Z (20-1)                   5

6. Firing Line (4-1)             7

7. Bodhisattva (20-1)         8

8. Tale of Verve (30-1)        2

*Data Mining Analysis

Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve were the only two that did not run close to their ranking.

Dortmund was ranked 2^nd and he finished 4^th.

Diving Rod was ranked 3^rd and he finished 3^rd.

American Pharoah was ranked 4^th and he finished 1^st.

Mr. Z was ranked 5^th and he finished 5^th.

Firing Line was ranked 6^th and he finished 7^th.

Bodhisattva was ranked 7^th and he finished 8^th.

After looking at the Derby and Preakness, I believe that Firing Line's seventh-place finish is probably more true to where he should be ranked in this herd. I have some thoughts about American Pharoah, too, but I want to do more research before commenting on his success.

The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software has a proven record of consistency.

In the Kentucky Derby, all three models had good results but the Derby Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in that race. And, you can read about those results here.

In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software was instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.

Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.

The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™.

As my brother, Dallas, and I refine the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software, I believe that we will eventually be able to pick the exact order of finish or be extremely close.

For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.

In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Software Picks Five Of Top Six Finishers In Kentucky Derby 141

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Kentucky Derby 141 is in the history book. Overall, my brother, Dallas, and I are pleased with the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software analysis of this Derby.

All three models had good results but Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in this herd.

Mubtaahij, ranked 1^st, and Carpe Diem, ranked 5^th, did not run to their ranking.

Data Mining Model Two

Rank, Horse                             Finish

4. American Pharoah               1

10. Firing Line                         2

3. Dortmund                            3

2. Frosted                                4

6. Danzig Moon                       5

7. Materiality                           6

14. Keen Ice                             7

1. Mubtaahij                            8

15. Itsaknockout                      9

5. Carpe Diem                          10

16. Frammento                        11

17. Bolo                                   12

11. Mr. Z                                  13

10. Ocho Ocho Ocho               14

9.  Far Right                            15

13. War Story                          16

18. Tencendur                         17

12. Upstart                              18

Scratches

5. International Star

9. Stanford

19. El Kabeir

My friend, Cindy Bledsoe @BlueStageGroup, is the owner of the Blue Stage Group (www.bluestagegroup.com) and when I showed her the results of this Derby, she crunched some analytics for me and ran a variance report. Here’s what she found:

          Calvin, these results are impressive. The Variance Report shows your average margin of accuracy between your ranking and the actual finish position. It measures the difference between your profile ranking and the actual order of finish.

THE TOP 6

● Your profile rankings for this model produced an average 2.5 position variance

to the final order of finish of the Top 6 finishers.

● If you exclude Firing Line, your accuracy was an astounding 1.4 position variance to the final order of finish of the Top 6 finishers.

For those who "throw out," one could argue you could throw out Firing Line as a fluke performance. I am not saying I do or don't, but some often analyze this way so I've provided it here. I am inclined to do so because your profile model came so close on ALL the other top 6 finishers.

REST OF THE FIELD

● Your profile rankings for this model produced an average overall 4 position variance to the final order of finish for the ENTIRE FIELD.

 
Here is how the entire field breaks down in terms of Finish Accuracy:

● 4 horses had a Finish Accuracy of either an exact or a 1 position variance to your profile rankings. Since 3 of the 4 (75%) were remarkably in the Top 6 finishers, your profile indicates extreme value to the betting public.

● 5 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 2 - 4 position variance.

This means 50% of the field finished at or within a 4 position variance to your profile rankings. This may not sound so exciting until you consider its value for exotic wagering.

● 6 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 5 - 6 position variance.

● 3 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 7 - 8 position variance.

Well done!

Thank you, Cindy, for that report.

Dallas and I are certain that with more analysis and data mining, the software will be able to hone in much closer to the finish order of the horses not in the top tier.

Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.

The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™.

The ability of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software to predict specific outcomes of races is robust and its greatest strength lies in its potential to predict long term racing and breeding performance – predictive ability that is valuable in assisting horse owners and breeders take the guesswork out of breeding, training, and purchasing of racehorses.

In addition, we’re confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software can be a powerful handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby.