Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) winner and Eclipse Award Champion Two-Year-Old Colt Shanghai Bobby will make his first start Saturday as a
3-year-old and was tabbed as the prohibitive 4-5 morning line favorite in the
26th running of the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulstream Park.
Undefeated
in five starts, Shanghai Bobby will put his record on the line attempting to
earn more points and secure his spot in the starting gate of Kentucky Derby
139. Currently he has 20 points and is ranked second in the top twenty list of
Derby qualifiers. The top twenty horses with the most points will qualify to
enter the Derby.
Since
this is the first time that Churchill Downs has used a point system to
determine eligibility for the Derby, no one knows exactly how many points it
will take for a horse to get into the starting gate. However, I recently read
at the Downey
Profile that a horse may be able to qualify with less than 40 points.
Whatever
the final count, if Shanghai Bobby continues to improve he shouldn’t have a
problem qualifying for the Derby and I look for him to be competitive in the
Holy Bull. However, it remains to be seen if he has classic potential.
In
my 2013
Kentucky Derby Outlook I noted that the distaff pedigree of Shanghai
Bobby is not as strong as what I’d like to see in colt that may have classic
potential and I thought that was evident in his narrow victory in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) to my long
shot pick He’s Had
Enough.
Orientate, the damsire of Shanghai
Bobby, was a champion sprinter that won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) as well
as the graded stakes Forego Handicap (G1), the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap
(G2) and the Aristides Handicap (G3). Orientate was also able to stretch out
his speed to win the 8½-furlong Indiana Derby. Carson
City, the sire
of the second dam Steel Band, also adds speed influence to
the distaff pedigree.
Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of Shanghai Bobby, was a precocious
colt and good middle-distance runner that was 4-2-0 in six starts as a two year
old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes,
Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.
As
a 3-year-old, Harlan’s Holiday finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1). He followed up with a win in the Florida Derby
(G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and went into the 2002 Kentucky Derby as the
6-1 favorite but finished seventh in a field of 18.
Regular
jockey Rosie Napravnik has done a masterful job guiding Shanghai Bobby to victory
in all five of his starts but their courage could be severely tested in the
Holy Bull by Itsmyluckyday
(6-1) who, in his 3-year-old debut, was an impressive 6¾-length winner in the 8-furlong
Gulstream Park Derby at Gulfstream Park on January 13.
Itsmyluckyday
earned an impressive 111 Brisnet Speed Figure for his romp in the Derby and the
time of 1:34.39 is outstanding. Itsmyluckyday showed good speed running on the
lead in that race and appeared to be full of energy at the finish. If he improves
off of that performance, Itsmyluckyday should be competitive in the Holy Bull.
With
three wins in seven starts as a 2-year-old, the form of Itsmyluckyday is
similar to that of his sire Lawyer
Ron who had three wins in 10 starts as a 2-year-old. As a 3-year-old,
Lawyer Ron was a tough competitor and undefeated in four starts winning the
Southwest Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2)
en route to a 12th-place finish in the 2006 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Doneraile Court, the
damsire of Itsmyluckyday, compiled a 5-2-2 record in 12 route races and his best
stakes performance as a 3-year-old was a second-place finish in 1999 Holy Bull
Stakes (G3) and third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Another
young colt that could, perhaps, give the 2-year-old champ Shanghai Bobby a run
for his money is Bern
Identity who is the 4-1 morning line second choice. In six starts, Bern
Identity has never been out of the money. But, he’s yet to race as a 3-year-old
and he comes into the Holy Bull off of a two-month layoff.
In
his last race, Bern Identity was running in 5th-place going into the
stretch of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) when he made a nice move to rally and close
the gap to finish second to Goldencents
who is currently ranked 1st in the Kentucky Derby top twenty list.
Bern
Identity only lost by 1¾-lengths to Goldencents and he finished 5½-lenghts
ahead of Itsmyluckyday who finished sixth in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). So,
it will be interesting to see if Bern Identity can step up in his 3-year-old
debut and run a big race like Itsmyluckyday ran in the Gulfstream Park Derby.
Bern
Identity has already run the distance of the Holy Bull Stakes and a recent
bullet work out at Palm Meadows Training Center could have him ready to run a
good race.
Two
long shots I like in the Holy Bull are Tulira Castle (30-1) and
Dewey Square (12-1).
At
30-1 morning line odds, Tulira Castle is under-the-radar and if he repeats the
performance of his last race – running a mile at Gulfstream Park in a time of
1:36.35 – he has the breeding to competitive and could, perhaps, upset the
2-year-old champ at a good price.
Tulira
Castle is a descendant of the Cherokee
Run sire line
and in my July 3 blog of 2009 I noted the importance
of keeping track of colts from that line when they stretch out to route racing.
Over
the years, the Cherokee Run sire line has produced a lot of good middle-
distance runners such as War Pass – the sire of Tulira Castle – Yonaguska, Kafwain, Sir
Cherokee, During, Chelokee, Zanjero, Recapturetheglory, Musket
Man and The Pamplemousse.
As
a 2-year-old, War Pass won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Stakes (G1) en route to being crowned the 2007 Eclipse Champion Two-Year-old
Colt. As a 3-year-old, War Pass finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes
(G1) but an injury kept him from competing in the Kentucky Derby.
General Asssmbly, the
damsire of Tulira Castle, was a competitive 2-year-old colt that won the
Hopeful Stakes (G1), Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and finished second in the
Champagne Stakes (G1). As a 3-year-old, General Assembly won the Gotham Stakes
(G2) and finished second in the 1979 Kentucky Derby (G1).
In
three starts, Dewey Square has never finished out of the money. He’s yet to
race as a 3-year-old and comes into the Holy Bull off of a two-month layoff. Currently,
Dewey Square is ranked 32nd on the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby
leaderboard and a win in the Holy Bull would put him in the top twenty.
In
his last race, Dewey Square finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
(G2) to the winner Uncaptured (ranked 6th) and runner up Frac Daddy (ranked
23rd).
A
bullet work out at Gulfstream Park on January 20 could have Dewey Square ready
to run a good race and I’ll be watching to see how he looks in the post parade.
*****
Shanghai
Bobby is currently ranked second and Bern Identity is ranked 13th in
the Kentucky Derby top twenty list. A win by any of the other eight colts
running in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) would put them in the top twenty. Here’s a
look at the current top twenty list:
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
January 21, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer
1
= Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
2
= Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher
3
= Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4
= Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
6
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
7
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
8
= Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
9
= Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas
10
= River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
11
= Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
12
= Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
13
= Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
14
= He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
15
= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
16
= Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
17
= Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
18
= Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham
19
= Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
20
= Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni
After
the running of the Holy Bull, I’ll post an updated top twenty list at the end
of this blog.
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
January 27, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer
1
= Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher
2
= Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
3
= Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4
= Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5
= Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr.
6
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
7
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
8
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
9
= Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
10
= Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas
11
= River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
12
= Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
13
= Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
14
= Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
15
= He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
16=
Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
17
= Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
18
= Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
19
= Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham
20
= Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
Holy Bull Stakes, Gulstream
Park, January 26, 2013
1.
Itsmyluckyday, 10
2.
Shanghai Bobby, 4
3.
Clearly Now, 2
4.
Joshua’s Comprise, 1
