Holy Bull Stakes Racing Roundup

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) winner and Eclipse Award Champion Two-Year-Old Colt Shanghai Bobby will make his first start Saturday as a 3-year-old and was tabbed as the prohibitive 4-5 morning line favorite in the 26^th running of the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulstream Park.

Undefeated in five starts, Shanghai Bobby will put his record on the line attempting to earn more points and secure his spot in the starting gate of Kentucky Derby 139. Currently he has 20 points and is ranked second in the top twenty list of Derby qualifiers. The top twenty horses with the most points will qualify to enter the Derby.

Since this is the first time that Churchill Downs has used a point system to determine eligibility for the Derby, no one knows exactly how many points it will take for a horse to get into the starting gate. However, I recently read at the Downey Profile that a horse may be able to qualify with less than 40 points.

Whatever the final count, if Shanghai Bobby continues to improve he shouldn’t have a problem qualifying for the Derby and I look for him to be competitive in the Holy Bull. However, it remains to be seen if he has classic potential.

In my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook I noted that the distaff pedigree of Shanghai Bobby is not as strong as what I’d like to see in colt that may have classic potential and I thought that was evident in his narrow victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) to my long shot pick He’s Had Enough.

Orientate, the damsire of Shanghai Bobby, was a champion sprinter that won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) as well as the graded stakes Forego Handicap (G1), the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G2) and the Aristides Handicap (G3). Orientate was also able to stretch out his speed to win the 8½-furlong Indiana Derby. Carson City, the sire of the second dam Steel Band, also adds speed influence to the distaff pedigree.

Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of Shanghai Bobby, was a precocious colt and good middle-distance runner that was 4-2-0 in six starts as a two year old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes, Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.

As a 3-year-old, Harlan’s Holiday finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1). He followed up with a win in the Florida Derby (G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and went into the 2002 Kentucky Derby as the 6-1 favorite but finished seventh in a field of 18.

Regular jockey Rosie Napravnik has done a masterful job guiding Shanghai Bobby to victory in all five of his starts but their courage could be severely tested in the Holy Bull by Itsmyluckyday (6-1) who, in his 3-year-old debut, was an impressive 6¾-length winner in the 8-furlong Gulstream Park Derby at Gulfstream Park on January 13.

Itsmyluckyday earned an impressive 111 Brisnet Speed Figure for his romp in the Derby and the time of 1:34.39 is outstanding. Itsmyluckyday showed good speed running on the lead in that race and appeared to be full of energy at the finish. If he improves off of that performance, Itsmyluckyday should be competitive in the Holy Bull.

With three wins in seven starts as a 2-year-old, the form of Itsmyluckyday is similar to that of his sire Lawyer Ron who had three wins in 10 starts as a 2-year-old. As a 3-year-old, Lawyer Ron was a tough competitor and undefeated in four starts winning the Southwest Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a 12^th-place finish in the 2006 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Doneraile Court, the damsire of Itsmyluckyday, compiled a 5-2-2 record in 12 route races and his best stakes performance as a 3-year-old was a second-place finish in 1999 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Another young colt that could, perhaps, give the 2-year-old champ Shanghai Bobby a run for his money is Bern Identity who is the 4-1 morning line second choice. In six starts, Bern Identity has never been out of the money. But, he’s yet to race as a 3-year-old and he comes into the Holy Bull off of a two-month layoff.

In his last race, Bern Identity was running in 5^th-place going into the stretch of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) when he made a nice move to rally and close the gap to finish second to Goldencents who is currently ranked 1^st in the Kentucky Derby top twenty list.

Bern Identity only lost by 1¾-lengths to Goldencents and he finished 5½-lenghts ahead of Itsmyluckyday who finished sixth in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). So, it will be interesting to see if Bern Identity can step up in his 3-year-old debut and run a big race like Itsmyluckyday ran in the Gulfstream Park Derby.

Bern Identity has already run the distance of the Holy Bull Stakes and a recent bullet work out at Palm Meadows Training Center could have him ready to run a good race.

Two long shots I like in the Holy Bull are Tulira Castle (30-1) and Dewey Square (12-1).

At 30-1 morning line odds, Tulira Castle is under-the-radar and if he repeats the performance of his last race – running a mile at Gulfstream Park in a time of 1:36.35 – he has the breeding to competitive and could, perhaps, upset the 2-year-old champ at a good price.

Tulira Castle is a descendant of the Cherokee Run sire line and in my July 3 blog of 2009 I noted the importance of keeping track of colts from that line when they stretch out to route racing.

Over the years, the Cherokee Run sire line has produced a lot of good middle- distance runners such as War Pass – the sire of Tulira Castle – Yonaguska, Kafwain, Sir Cherokee, During, Chelokee, Zanjero, Recapturetheglory, Musket Man and The Pamplemousse.

As a 2-year-old, War Pass won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) en route to being crowned the 2007 Eclipse Champion Two-Year-old Colt. As a 3-year-old, War Pass finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) but an injury kept him from competing in the Kentucky Derby.

General Asssmbly, the damsire of Tulira Castle, was a competitive 2-year-old colt that won the Hopeful Stakes (G1), Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Champagne Stakes (G1). As a 3-year-old, General Assembly won the Gotham Stakes (G2) and finished second in the 1979 Kentucky Derby (G1).

In three starts, Dewey Square has never finished out of the money. He’s yet to race as a 3-year-old and comes into the Holy Bull off of a two-month layoff. Currently, Dewey Square is ranked 32^nd on the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby leaderboard and a win in the Holy Bull would put him in the top twenty.

In his last race, Dewey Square finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) to the winner Uncaptured (ranked 6^th) and runner up Frac Daddy (ranked 23^rd).

A bullet work out at Gulfstream Park on January 20 could have Dewey Square ready to run a good race and I’ll be watching to see how he looks in the post parade.

*****

Shanghai Bobby is currently ranked second and Bern Identity is ranked 13^th in the Kentucky Derby top twenty list. A win by any of the other eight colts running in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) would put them in the top twenty. Here’s a look at the current top twenty list:

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated January 21, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer

1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill

2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher

5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher

6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse

7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert

8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson

9 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas

10 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez

11 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert

12 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll

13 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen

14 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill

15 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher

16 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse

17 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill

18 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham

19 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer

20 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni

After the running of the Holy Bull, I’ll post an updated top twenty list at the end of this blog.

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated January 27, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer

1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher

2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher

5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr.

6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher

7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse

8 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert

9 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson

10 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas

11 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez

12 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert

13 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll

14 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen

15 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill

16= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher

17 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse

18 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill

19 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham

20 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer

Holy Bull Stakes, Gulstream Park, January 26, 2013

1. Itsmyluckyday, 10

2. Shanghai Bobby, 4

3. Clearly Now, 2

4. Joshua’s Comprise, 1