Canadian
invader Avie’s Quality heads a field of nine 3-year-old
Thoroughbreds today as the lukewarm 5-2 morning line favorite in the 69th
running of the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds.
Trained
by Josie Carroll, who won the LeComte in 2001 with Sam Lord’s Castle, Avie’s Quality has never been
out of the money in four starts and comes into the race with two back-to-back
first-place finishes at Woodbine including a 1¼-length win in the Display
Stakes on December 1.
Elusive Quality, the sire of Avie’s Quality, competed mostly in
sprint races compiling a 5-2-2 record in 12 starts including a win in the
Jaipur Handicap (G3) and Poker Stakes (G3). He also was equally talented in
route racing compiling a 2-1-0 record in four starts.
Elusive
Quality is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1)
winner Smarty Jones and stakes champions Raven’s
Pass, Quality
Road and Maryfield.
Lord
Avie, the
damsire of Avie’s Quality, was the Eclipse Champion Two-Year-old Colt and
winner of the Young America Stakes (G1), Champagne Stakes (G1), Cowdin Stakes
(G2) and Juvenile Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Lord Avie won the Hutcheson
Stakes and Florida Derby (G1) but was injured in the Florida Derby and did not
compete in any of the Triple Crown races.
Fly For Avie, the dam of
Avie’s Quality, raced mostly on the turf compiling a 5-4-2 record in 21 starts
including a win in the 10-furlong E. P. Taylor Stakes (G1) and the 12-furlong
Flaming Page Stakes.
Avie’s
Quality has yet to earn any Kentucky Derby qualifying points and a victory in
the LeComte would place him in the top twenty list. He’s been training well at the
Palm Meadows Training Center in Boynton Beach, FL and he picks up the services
of jockey Rosie Napravnik who leads the other jockeys in the LeComte with a 23
percent win rate.
If
Avie’s Quality repeats the form of his last two races, he should be
competitive.
Golden
Soul (5-1) is
stepping up in class and comes into the LeComte off of a 7¼-length maiden win in
an 8½-furlong race at the Fair Grounds on December 30.
The
time of 1:46.86 in his maiden win was pretty slow but he has room to improve in
just his third start. He’s also has a pretty good pedigree and if he lives up
to his breeding he should be competitive.
Perfect
Soul, the
damsire of Golden Soul, was competitive from 7- to 11-furlongs but his best
stakes wins were at a mile winning the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1), King
Edward Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes (G2).
Other
important influences in the first three generations include Sadler’s Wells, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Fairy Bridge, Secretariat, Raise A Native, Gold Digger and Silver Hawk.
A
long shot I like in today’s race is Heitai (10-1). In six starts, Heitai
has never been out of the money and four of those races were in listed stakes
company.
Heitai
has good speed and has raced mostly in sprints. In his last three races, the
most he lost by was three-quarters of a length and I think the stretch out to a
mile and 70 yards may be more to his liking.
Fusaichi Pegasus, the
sire of Heitai, finished second in his only start as a 2-year-old. But, as a
3-year-old, he was undefeated in four starts, including a win in the San Felipe
Stakes (G2) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), en route to winning the 2000
Kentucky Derby (G1).
Honorable
mention goes to Circle
Unbroken (7-2) and Hawaakom (20-1). I’ll be looking to see
how good they look in the post parade and if they look good they may be worthy
of a wager.
Circle
Unbroken was a young colt I had on my watch list early on. He won the Bashford
Manor Stakes (G3) in June and finished second in the Mountaineer Juvenile
Stakes in August but has not raced since then.
He’s
been working out steadily at the Fair Grounds since December and a recent
bullet work on January 13 could have him ready to run a good race.
Hawaakom
has a pretty good pedigree but with only two starts it’s too early to tell if
he will live up to his breeding. His sire, Jazil, won the 2006 Belmont
Stakes (G1).
Hawaakom’s
time of 1:46.16 in his maiden win was slow but he was in eighth-place at the
three-quarter pole and came home nicely to win by 1½-lengths.
Hawaakom
has room to improve in just his third start and another move forward would make
him competitive in today’s race.
*****
Oxbow, ranked 32nd, is
the only juvenile entered in the LeComte to earn one point for Derby
qualification. So a win by any of the horses running in the LeComte would put
them in the top twenty.
The
winner of today’s race will receive 10 points while second-place will yield 4
points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive 1 point.
The
Sham Stakes was the first qualifying race
on the 2013 Kentucky Derby Trail. The winner of the Sham, Goldencents moved up from 2nd
to 1st place. Den’s Legacy, ranked 21st, moved up to 10th
place. Here’s a look at the top twenty Kentucky Derby qualifiers:
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
January 5, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer
1
= Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
2
= Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher
3
= Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
4
= Joha, 10, Mike Maker
5
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
6
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
7
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
8
= Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
9
= River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
10
= Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
11
= Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
12=
Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
13
= He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
14
= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
15
= Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
16
= Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
17
= Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
18
= Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni
19
= Normandy Invasion, 4, Chad Brown
20
= Frac Daddy, 4, Kenny McPeak
An
updated leaderboard will be posted at the end of today’s race.
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
January 19, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer
1
= Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
2
= Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher
3
= Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4
= Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
6
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
7
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
8
= Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
9
= River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
10
= Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
11
= Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
12
= Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
13
= He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
14
= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
15
= Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
16
= Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
17
= Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
18
= Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni
19
= Normandy Invasion, 4, Chad Brown
20
= Golden Soul, 4, Dallas Stewart
Oxbow,
ranked 32nd, moves up to 3rd place. Dynamic Sky, ranked
17th, moves up to 15th place. Unranked Golden Soul cracks
the leaderboard in 20th place.
LeComte Stakes (G3), Fair
Grounds, January 19, 2013
1.
Oxbow, 10
2.
Golden Soul, 4
3.
Fear The Kitten, 2
4.
Ive Struck A Nerve, 1
I feel like a man on an island in liking FEAR THE KITTEN. Calvin, I respect your pedigree knowledge and realize FEAR THE KITTEN should do his best running on turf, but he proved he can run on dirt when 5th (4+) behind Uncaptured & Frac Daddy @ CD. He makes 1st start for Mike Maker today which is an added plus over prev. (9%) trainer. Love the work tab and his running style fits the FG long stretch.
ReplyDeleteIs it 1 mile 70 yds is TOO SHORT OR you feel he's just TOO SLOW?
G.Q.,
ReplyDeleteThe layoff plus his fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club were negatives for me and thought he would have to improve significantly to win this race.
Of course, 3-year-olds can make a lot of improvement but I did not have any information on paper to show me that.
Overall, I think that a lot of these pretty evenly matched and that could make for an interesting race.
I definitely will be watching all of them closely in the post parade to see if I can get any visual clues as to which ones may be ready to run a good race.
Well see how to rate the Cash Call race.
ReplyDeleteCash Call vaults to a top race with this dominant performance unless this colt did not like the type of track.
ReplyDelete