Saturday, January 19, 2013

LeComte Stakes Racing Roundup



Canadian invader Avie’s Quality heads a field of nine 3-year-old Thoroughbreds today as the lukewarm 5-2 morning line favorite in the 69th running of the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds.

Trained by Josie Carroll, who won the LeComte in 2001 with Sam Lord’s Castle, Avie’s Quality has never been out of the money in four starts and comes into the race with two back-to-back first-place finishes at Woodbine including a 1¼-length win in the Display Stakes on December 1.

Elusive Quality, the sire of Avie’s Quality, competed mostly in sprint races compiling a 5-2-2 record in 12 starts including a win in the Jaipur Handicap (G3) and Poker Stakes (G3). He also was equally talented in route racing compiling a 2-1-0 record in four starts.

Elusive Quality is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Smarty Jones and stakes champions Raven’s Pass, Quality Road and Maryfield.

Lord Avie, the damsire of Avie’s Quality, was the Eclipse Champion Two-Year-old Colt and winner of the Young America Stakes (G1), Champagne Stakes (G1), Cowdin Stakes (G2) and Juvenile Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Lord Avie won the Hutcheson Stakes and Florida Derby (G1) but was injured in the Florida Derby and did not compete in any of the Triple Crown races.

Fly For Avie, the dam of Avie’s Quality, raced mostly on the turf compiling a 5-4-2 record in 21 starts including a win in the 10-furlong E. P. Taylor Stakes (G1) and the 12-furlong Flaming Page Stakes.

Avie’s Quality has yet to earn any Kentucky Derby qualifying points and a victory in the LeComte would place him in the top twenty list. He’s been training well at the Palm Meadows Training Center in Boynton Beach, FL and he picks up the services of jockey Rosie Napravnik who leads the other jockeys in the LeComte with a 23 percent win rate.

If Avie’s Quality repeats the form of his last two races, he should be competitive.

Golden Soul (5-1) is stepping up in class and comes into the LeComte off of a 7¼-length maiden win in an 8½-furlong race at the Fair Grounds on December 30.

The time of 1:46.86 in his maiden win was pretty slow but he has room to improve in just his third start. He’s also has a pretty good pedigree and if he lives up to his breeding he should be competitive.

Perfect Soul, the damsire of Golden Soul, was competitive from 7- to 11-furlongs but his best stakes wins were at a mile winning the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1), King Edward Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes (G2).

Other important influences in the first three generations include Sadler’s Wells, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Fairy Bridge, Secretariat, Raise A Native, Gold Digger and Silver Hawk.

A long shot I like in today’s race is Heitai (10-1). In six starts, Heitai has never been out of the money and four of those races were in listed stakes company.

Heitai has good speed and has raced mostly in sprints. In his last three races, the most he lost by was three-quarters of a length and I think the stretch out to a mile and 70 yards may be more to his liking.

Fusaichi Pegasus, the sire of Heitai, finished second in his only start as a 2-year-old. But, as a 3-year-old, he was undefeated in four starts, including a win in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), en route to winning the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Honorable mention goes to Circle Unbroken (7-2) and Hawaakom (20-1). I’ll be looking to see how good they look in the post parade and if they look good they may be worthy of a wager.

Circle Unbroken was a young colt I had on my watch list early on. He won the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) in June and finished second in the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes in August but has not raced since then.

He’s been working out steadily at the Fair Grounds since December and a recent bullet work on January 13 could have him ready to run a good race.

Hawaakom has a pretty good pedigree but with only two starts it’s too early to tell if he will live up to his breeding. His sire, Jazil, won the 2006 Belmont Stakes (G1).

Hawaakom’s time of 1:46.16 in his maiden win was slow but he was in eighth-place at the three-quarter pole and came home nicely to win by 1½-lengths.

Hawaakom has room to improve in just his third start and another move forward would make him competitive in today’s race.





*****





Oxbow, ranked 32nd, is the only juvenile entered in the LeComte to earn one point for Derby qualification. So a win by any of the horses running in the LeComte would put them in the top twenty.

The winner of today’s race will receive 10 points while second-place will yield 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.

The Sham Stakes was the first qualifying race on the 2013 Kentucky Derby Trail. The winner of the Sham, Goldencents moved up from 2nd to 1st place. Den’s Legacy, ranked 21st, moved up to 10th place. Here’s a look at the top twenty Kentucky Derby qualifiers:





Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated January 5, 2013)





Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer

1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill

2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher

3 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher

4 = Joha, 10, Mike Maker

5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher

6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse

7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert

8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson

9 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez

10 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert

11 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll

12= Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen

13 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill

14 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher

15 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill

16 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer

17 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse

18 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni

19 = Normandy Invasion, 4, Chad Brown

20 = Frac Daddy, 4, Kenny McPeak





An updated leaderboard will be posted at the end of today’s race.




Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated January 19, 2013)


Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer
1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher
3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
9 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
10 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
11 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
12 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
13 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
14 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
15 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
16 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
17 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
18 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni
19 = Normandy Invasion, 4, Chad Brown
20 = Golden Soul, 4, Dallas Stewart

Oxbow, ranked 32nd, moves up to 3rd place. Dynamic Sky, ranked 17th, moves up to 15th place. Unranked Golden Soul cracks the leaderboard in 20th place.


LeComte Stakes (G3), Fair Grounds, January 19, 2013

1. Oxbow, 10
2. Golden Soul, 4
3. Fear The Kitten, 2
4. Ive Struck A Nerve, 1
 

4 comments:

  1. I feel like a man on an island in liking FEAR THE KITTEN. Calvin, I respect your pedigree knowledge and realize FEAR THE KITTEN should do his best running on turf, but he proved he can run on dirt when 5th (4+) behind Uncaptured & Frac Daddy @ CD. He makes 1st start for Mike Maker today which is an added plus over prev. (9%) trainer. Love the work tab and his running style fits the FG long stretch.
    Is it 1 mile 70 yds is TOO SHORT OR you feel he's just TOO SLOW?

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  2. G.Q.,

    The layoff plus his fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club were negatives for me and thought he would have to improve significantly to win this race.

    Of course, 3-year-olds can make a lot of improvement but I did not have any information on paper to show me that.

    Overall, I think that a lot of these pretty evenly matched and that could make for an interesting race.

    I definitely will be watching all of them closely in the post parade to see if I can get any visual clues as to which ones may be ready to run a good race.

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  3. Well see how to rate the Cash Call race.

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  4. Cash Call vaults to a top race with this dominant performance unless this colt did not like the type of track.

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