Monday, January 21, 2013

Smarty Jones Stakes Racing Roundup



Trainer Doug O’Neil’s California shipper Avare heads a field of nine 3-year-old Thoroughbreds today as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the 6th running of the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

The Smarty Jones Stakes is one mile long and Avare has already shown good speed at that distance. In his second start, Avare broke his maiden in October racing a mile on the turf at Santa Anita Park and his time of 1:36.16 is in the neighborhood of what I like a young colt to run. Avare came back in December to win the Eddie Logan Stakes by 4¼-lengths in a time of 1:36.39.

If Avare repeats the form of those previous two races he should be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

As a 2-year-old, Avare’s sire Johannesburg was a precocious sprinter in Europe that was undefeated in six starts, including three Group One victories, and he was the recipient of the Cartier Award for European Champion Two-Year-Old Colt.

Toward the end of the racing season, Johannesburg was brought to America and he successfully carried his speed to 8½-furlongs to win the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).

Johannesburg made one start in April as a 3-year-old winning the 7-furlong Gladness Stakes (Group 3) at the Curragh racetrack en route to an 8th-place finish in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.

Robellino, the damsire of Avare, made 14 starts in Europe compiled a 5-5-0 record on the turf. His best stakes wins were in the 8-furlong Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) and the 5-furlong Seaton Delaval Stakes (Group 3).

I look for Avare to be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

In five starts, Brown Almighty (4-1) has only been out of the money once and since his maiden-debut win in July his other four races have been stakes races.

In September, Brown Almighty finished a neck behind Java’s War in the Sunday Silence Stakes in a time of 1:36.73. His final time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Santa Anita Park in November was close to the 1:36 mark.

Big Brown, the sire of Brown Almighty, was a lightly-race, precocious colt that won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and was favored to win the Belmont Stakes (G1) but was pulled up by jockey Kent Desormeaux before the finish.

Brown Almighty’s damsire, Gone For Real, raced mostly on the turf compiling a 5-3-1 record in 11 starts. His best win came in the Royal Palm Handicap (G3) and he placed in several stakes as well.

All of Brown Almighty’s races have been on the turf. If he can transfer that form to the dirt and run close to the 1:36 mark as he has in previous races he should be competitive in today’s race.

Always in a Tiz (9-2) is stepping up in class and he’s never ran in a route race but he’s shouldn’t have a problem stretching out to 8-furlongs.

Tiznow, the sire of Always in a Tiz, was an outstanding runner who compiled an 8-4-2 record in 14 dirt route races and as a 3-year-old he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes (G1), Super Derby (G1), Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and the Affirmed Handicap (G3).

Elusive Quality, the damsire of Always in a Tiz, competed mostly in sprint races compiling a 5-2-2 record in 12 starts including a win in the Jaipur Handicap (G3) and Poker Stakes (G3). He also was equally talented in route racing compiling a 2-1-0 record in four starts.

Elusive Quality is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Smarty Jones and stakes champions Raven’s Pass, Quality Road and Maryfield.

In his maiden debut win, Always in a Tiz defeated the third-place finisher Revolutionary who went on to finally break his maiden with an impressive 8½-length romp and he’s one of the horses I wrote about in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook. In his second race, Always in a Tiz finished second to the undefeated Vyjack who recently won the Jerome Stakes (G2).

If he continues to move forward, Always in a Tiz should be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

A long shot I like in today’s race is Best of Birdstone (20-1). All three of his previous races were stakes and he has the breeding to be competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

His tail-male sire line is especially impressive with the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Birdstone, Grindstone and Unbridled. Storm and a Half, the damsire of Best of Birdstone, was unraced but his second damsire is the Sire of Sires Storm Cat who has produced numerous stakes winners.

In his last race, Best of Birdstone lost to Texas Bling and Will Take Charge who are also entered in today’s race. So, I’ll be looking those three over very closely and if Best of Birdstone looks good in the post parade he may be worthy of a wager.

A nice work out at Oaklawn Park on January 8 could have him ready to run a good race.





*****



The Smarty Jones Stakes is not a graded stakes and this is the first year that any horses in this race will earn any points under the new Churchill Downs grading system to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Under the old system, the horses with the most graded stakes earnings qualified to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The winner of today’s race will receive 10 points while second-place will yield 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.

A win by any of the horses running in the Smarty Jones Stakes would put them in the top twenty. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Kentucky Derby qualifiers:





Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated January 19, 2013)





Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer

1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill

2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher

5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher

6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse

7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert

8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson

9 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez

10 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert

11 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll

12 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen

13 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill

14 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher

15 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse

16 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill

17 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer

18 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni

19 = Normandy Invasion, 4, Chad Brown

20 = Golden Soul, 4, Dallas Stewart



An updated leaderboard will be posted at the end of today’s race.




Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated January 21, 2013)


Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer
1 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill
2 = Shanghai Bobby, 20, Todd Pletcher
3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas
4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher
5 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher
6 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse
7 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert
8 = Steeler, 10, Mark Johnson
9 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas
10 = River Seven, 10, Nick Gonzalez
11 = Den’s Legacy, 6, Bob Baffert
12 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll
13 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen
14 = He’s Had Enough, 4, Doug O’Neill
15 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher
16 = Dynamic Sky, 4, Mark Casse
17 = Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill
18 = Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham
19 = Fury Kapcori, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
20 = Artigiano, 4, Mahmood Al Zarooni

The first two finishers in the Smarty Jones stakes, both previously unranked, are now in the top twenty list of Derby qualifiers. Will Take Charge earned 10 points for his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes and is now ranked 9th. Texas Bling earned 4 points and is now ranked 18th.  

Smarty Jones Stakes, Oaklawn Park, January 21, 2013
1. Will Take Charge, 10
2. Texas Bling, 4
3. Always in a Tiz, 2
4. Stormy Holiday, 1
 

4 comments:

  1. Hi Calvin, Always In A Tiz you wrote a step up in class. I think this is a step down off the Vyjack race. The colt gave nothing back to Vyjack and appears to have a the tactical speed to pounce late.

    If Vyjack was in the race, he would be 1/2 and Always In A Tiz never lost ground that day.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Barry,

    I thought it was an unusual race.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Calvin,

    Texas Bling 2 * 9 * 3

    Will Take Charge 22 * 4 * 1,2,3

    Always in a TiZ 10,13 * 26 * 1,9

    IMO
    Texas Bling - Not entirely impossible
    Wil Take Charge - very doubtful
    Always in a TiZ - highly unlikely

    We shall see. It appears to me this was a points race without a serious derby hopeful in the top three finishers.

    I'll have to take a look at Avare.

    It is somewhat silly IMO that horses are earning points in ungraded stakes. This new system may throw some monkey wrenches in the works !

    Talk to you later
    BSB

    ReplyDelete
  4. BSB,

    I would not be surprised to see a colt that has not earned any Derby points yet step up in this next round of qualifying races to become a serious Derby contender.

    ReplyDelete