The Road
to the Kentucky Derby
will
log a lot of miles this Saturday with two qualifying races in the heartland of
America. At Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas, the Rebel Stakes (G2) post
is 6:23 p.m. ET. At Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky, the Jeff Ruby Stakes
(G3) post is 6:42 p.m. ET.
Let’s look at the 60th running of
the $1 million Rebel
Stakes (G2) where NADAL has been tabbed the 5-2
morning-line favorite.
Undefeated
in two starts, Nadal comes into this race for trainer Bob Baffert off a victory
in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park. Here’s the video
and chart call of that race:
NADAL
had good early speed and dueled between horses then inside on the turn and into
the stretch, battled along the rail to a short lead nearing the sixteenth pole
and gamely prevailed under urging.
Nadal
and Ginobili dueled from
the start to the far turn where Nadal pulled away in the final yards to win by
three-quarters of a length.
Blame, the sire of Nadal, was a
multiple graded stakes winner that never finished out of the money in 13
starts, compiling a 9-2-2 record with $4,368,214 in career earnings.
At the age of two, Blame was
1-0-1 in two starts in maiden special weight competition.
In June of his season debut as a
three-year-old, Blame finished third in an allowance race at Churchill Downs
and went on to compile a 4-1-1 record in six starts with wins in the Curlin
Stakes, Fayette Stakes (G2) and Clark Handicap (G2). He finished second in the
Super Derby (G2).
As a four-year-old, Blame was
4-1-0 in five starts with wins in the William Donald Schaefer Stakes (G3),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Whitney Handicap (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic
Stakes (G1) where he upset favored Zenyatta
by head. Blame finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1).
Nadal
has an A Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s a colt we profiled (Hip 1279) as a yearling at the 2018
Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Unlike other companies that provide
automatic computer-generated pedigree analysis of yearlings at auction, Classic
Champion Thoroughbreds LLC personally handpicks from the sales catalog all yearlings to be profiled at
auction based upon their breeding.
Nadal has room to improve in his third start of the season and two
recent bullet works could have him ready to take another step forward.
SILVER PROSPECTOR (7-2) comes into this race with
a 3-0-2 record in eight starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a win in
the Southwest Stakes (G3) last out. Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
SILVER
PROSPECTOR broke back, pulled through the first turn when in a forward
position, continued to be patiently handled the middle half, inched closer in
the far turn, steered out to engage the leader entering the stretch, drifted
out slightly, was straightened and put a head in front with a furlong
remaining, continued to drift slightly, edged clear under firm handling.
Silver
Prospector tracked the leader Wells Bayou for most of the race and moved past
him in the stretch to win by one length.
Kentucky-bred Declaration
of War, the sire of Silver Prospector,
was a multiple Group Stakes winner in England that compiled a 7-1-2 record in
13 starts with $1,847,489 in career earnings.
At the age of two, Declaration of
War was undefeated in two starts.
At the age of three, he was 2-0-0
in three starts with a win in the Diamond Stakes (Group 3).
At four, Declaration of War was
3-1-2 in eight starts with wins in the Heritage Stakes, Queen Anne Stakes
(Group 1) and Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1). He finished second in
the Coral Eclipse Stakes (Group 1) and third in both the QIPCO Sussex Stakes
(Group 1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G3).
Silver
Prospector has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive
in this race. He has room to improve in his third start of the season and I
look for him to run a good race.
A
long shot I like is COACH
BAHE (30-1) who comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in three
starts for trainer Philip Bauer including a maiden win last out. Here’s the chart
call of that race:
COACH
BAHE was taken back some nearing the first turn, went four then three wide on
that bend, settled off the pace, moved closer while two then three wide on the
far turn, steadied behind horses inside the three-sixteenths then altered
course to the outside, rallied outside in the final furlong and closed well to
get up under strong urging.
Coach
Bahe ran in the clear toward the back of the herd but gradually made up ground
to the far turn where he swung wide to get around a wall of horses and got up
at the wire to win by 1¼ lengths.
Take Charge
Indy, the sire of Coach Bahe, was a
multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 3-4-2 record in 14 starts with
$1,103,496 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Take Charge
Indy was 1-1-0 in four starts with a second-place finish in the
Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3).
At the age of three, Take Charge
Indy won the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a nineteenth-place finish in the
Kentucky Derby (G1). He went to the finish the season with a third-place finish
in the Fayette Stakes (G3) and a second-place finish in the Clark Handicap
(G1).
Take Charge Indy made five starts
as a four year old with a win in the Alysheba Stakes (G2), a second-place
finish in the Skip Away Stakes (G3) and a third-place finish in the Donn
Handicap (G1).
Coach
Bahe has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the best-bred
colt in this herd. He has room to improve in his third start of the season and
another step forward could make him competitive in this race.
Undefeated
in three starts, NO
PAROLE (8-1) comes into this race for trainer Tom Amoss off a win in
the LA Bred Premier Night Prince Stakes at Delta Downs. Here’s the video and chart
call:
NO
PAROLE went to the front, drove clear, led throughout, pulled away late and
proved much the best.
No
Parole took command from the start and pulled away in the stretch to win by an impressive
6 ½ lengths.
Violence,
the sire of No Parole, showed promise as a two year old on the Kentucky Derby
Trail winning his first three starts including the Nashua Stakes (G2) and the
CashCall Futurity (G1).
In his debut as a three year old,
Violence finished second in the Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)
but had suffered a fractured
sesamoid bone which ended his career.
No
Parole has a C Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this race.
Honorable
mention goes to Excession
(30-1), American Theorem
(6-1) and Basin (3-1). Excession
is a colt (Hip 855) we profiled at the 2018
Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he has an A Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
*****
A
total of 35 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby. In addition, there
are seven races on the European road to the Kentucky Derby and there three
races on the Japan road to Derby glory.
2020 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Authentic,
60, Bob Baffert, $300,000
2. Ete Indien, 54,
Patrick Biancone, $288,156
3. Mischievous
Alex, 50, John Servis, $308,410
4. Modernist, 50,
Bill Mott, $240,000
** King Guillermo,
50, Juan Carlos Avila, $217,050
5. +Enforceable, 33, Mark
Casse, $344,550
6. Storm the Court, 32, Peter Eurton, $1,196,351
7. Sole Volante, 30, Patrick Biancone, $243,510
8. Thousand Words, 25, Bob Baffert, $205,000
9. Tiz the Law, 22,
Barclay Tagg, $456,000
10. Silver Prospector, 21, Steve Asmussen, $654,851
11. Honor A.P., 20, John Shirreffs, $80,000
12. Major Fed, 20, Greg Foley, $80,000
13. Candy Tycoon, 20, Todd Pletcher, $76,000
14. Untitled, 20, Mark Casse, $67,275
15. Shotski, 19, Jeremiah O’Dwyer, $212,466
16. Independence Hall, 14, Mike Trombetta, $205,000
17. Silver State, 14, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
18. +Azul Coast, 14, Bob Baffert, $80,000
19. Shoplifted, 13,
Steve Asmussen, $388,500
20. Anneau d’Or, 12, Blaine Wright, $385,000
25. +Max Player, 10, Linda Rice, $137,500
30. +Scabbard, 6, Eddie Kenneally, $178,000
39. +Wells Bayou, 4, Brad Cox, $150,000
+ Enforceable (Hip 76), Azul Coast (Hip
1177),
Max Player (Hip
929),
Scabbard (Hip
802)
and Wells Bayou (Hip 3281)
were colts we profiled
at the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Unlike other companies that
provide automatic computer-generated pedigree analysis of yearlings at auction,
Classic Champion Thoroughbreds LLC personally handpicks from the sales catalog
all yearlings to be profiled at auction based upon
their breeding.
* Mr.
Monomoy, with 52 Derby points, is off the Kentucky Derby Trail due to a minor
ankle injury. ** King Guillermo, with 50 Derby
points, is not nominated to the Triple Crown.
EUROPEAN
ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Chares (GER), 20, Jane Chapple-Hyam, $80,819
2.
Crossfirehurricane, 20, Joseph O’Brien, $49,507
3.
Kameko, 14, Andrew Balding, $192,894
4.
Innisfree (IRE), 14, Aidan O’Brien, $127,856
5.
Victor Ludorum, 10, Andre Fabre, $250,958
6.
Royal Donarch (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $115,813
7.
Alson (GER), 4, J.P. Carvalho, $135,572
8.
Shekhem (IRE), 4, Dermot Weld, $24,068
9.
Year of the Tiger (IRE), 3, Aidan O’Brien $36,086
10.
Armory (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $258,793
11.
Iberia (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $25,389
12.
Gold Maze (GB), 2, Jessica Harrington, $12,034
13.
Mogul (GB), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $111,879
14.
Ecrivain (FR), 1, Carlos Laffon-Parias, $69.202
15.
Camorra (IRE), 1, Ger Lyons, $3,610
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Café Pharoah, 30, Noriyuki Hori, $234,290
2.
Vacation (JPN), 20, Kenichi Takatsuki, $499,874
3.
Tango Beauty (JPN), 12, Masato Nishizono, $329,346
4.
Dieu du Vin (JPN), 10, Yukihiro Kato, $159,609
5.
Yaugau (JPN), 6, Naosuke Sugai, $182,385
6.
Longonot (JPN), 3, Mizuki Takayanagi, $158,202
7.
Daimei Corrida (JPN), 2, Naoyuki Morita, $107,736
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