Friday, February 2, 2018

Withers Stakes Racing Roundup

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby logs a lot of miles with prep races in New York, California and Florida.
Let’s take a look at the 138th running of the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York where AVERY ISLAND will go to the starting gate as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Post time is 4:35 ET.
Avery Island comes into this race for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin with a 2-1-0 record in four starts including a 4¾ length win in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and a second-place finish in the Remsen Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of the Remsen:

AVERY ISLAND two to three wide just off the pace, came under coaxing midway on the far turn, angled three to four wide at the head of the stretch, proved no match for the top one while offering up a mild kick to run on and secure the place honors safely.

Avery Island showed his talent and closed his racing season as a two-year-old with a respectable second-place finish stretching out to nine furlongs in the Remsen Stakes (G2).
Street Sense, the sire of Avery Island, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 6-4-2 record in 13 starts with $4,383,200 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Street Sense finished third in both the Arlington-Washington Breeders’ Cup Futurity (G3) and the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He followed that with a win in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and was tabbed as the Eclipse Champion Two Year Old.
Street Sense won his season debut as a three year old in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) en route to a 2¼ length win over Hard Spun in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Avery Island is the best-bred colt in this herd.
Jockey Joe Bravo has ridden Avery Island in his four previous starts and he retains the mount. I look for the pair to be tough in this race.
MARCONI (3-1) is stepping up in class and with a 1-1-0 record in two starts, he comes into this race off a maiden win for trainer Todd Pletcher. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MARCONI three wide through the first turn, settled three then two wide just off the pace, tipped out three wide put to coaxing at the three eighths, swung three to four wide into upper stretch, drew clear under a drive to prevail.

In just his second start, Marconi looked good breaking his maiden by an impressive 5½ lengths.
Tapit, the sire of Marconi, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three year old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
Marconi has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this herd. He has room to improve in his third start and I look for Marconi to run a good race.
FIRENZE FIRE (9-5) comes into this race for trainer Jason Servis with a 4-0-0 record in six starts including a win in the Jerome Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

FIRENZE FIRE five to six wide down the backstretch settled near the rear, advanced four wide through the turn under coaxing from midway, swung five wide into upper stretch, dug in under a drive to issue a challenge through the final furlong steadily gaining outside and got up in the final jumps to wear down the leader and prevail in the end.

Firenze Fire showed his talent picking up his third stakes win to prevail over a determined Seven Trumpets by a half-length.
Poseidon’s Warrior, the sire of Firenze Fire, was a fast, competitive racehorse and graded stakes winner that raced to the age of four compiling a 7-2-4 record in 21 starts with $701,147 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Poseidon’s Warrior was 2-1-1 in five starts with a win in the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity, a second-place finish in the Grey Planet Stakes and a third-place finish in the First State Dash Stakes.
As a three-year-old, He was 4-1-1 in nine starts with wins in the East Hanover Stakes, New Castle Stakes and the Le Bagoter Stakes. He finished second in the Gallant Bob Stakes and third in the Valley Forge Stakes.
In seven starts as a four-year-old, Poseidon’s Warrior was 1-0-2 with a win in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) and third-place finishes in the Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (G1) and the Fabulous Strike Handicap.
Firenze Fire is a talented colt with wins in the Jerome Stakes (video), the Champagne Stakes (G1) (video) and the Sanford Stakes (G3) (video). However, with an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, his best racing has been at a mile and I’ll be interested to see how he handles the stretch out to nine furlongs.
Honorable mention goes to BAL HARBOUR (6-1). He’s also is trained by Todd Pletcher and with a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he could be a factor in this race.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. Firenze Fire, 20, Jason Servis, $517,500
3. McKinzie, 20, Bob Baffert, $240,000
4. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
5. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
6. Instilled Regard, 14, Jerry Hollendorfer, $180,000
7. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
8. +Free Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
9. Greyvitos, 10, Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
10. Catholic Boy, 10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
11. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
12. Mourinho, 10, Bob Baffert, $124,360
13. Combatant, 8, Steve Asmussen, $110,000
14. Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
15. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $109,913
16. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $88,500
17. Principe Guilherme, 4, Steve Asmussen, $40,000
18. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
19. Seven Trumpets, 4, Dale Romans, $30,000
20. All Out Blitz, 4, Simon Callahan, $20,000
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2. Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro (JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

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