Friday, February 16, 2018

Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Louisiana, Saturday, where INSTILLED REGARD will go to the starting gate as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 46th running of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time is 6:03 p.m. ET.
The Risen Star is the first race on the Kentucky Derby Trail worth 50 points to the winner. The second-place horse will earn 20 points, the third-place finisher gets 10 points and the fourth-place horse will earn 5 points.
Instilled Regard comes into this race for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with a 2-2-1 record in five starts including a win in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

INSTILLED REGARD went around the first turn in the four path, settled in the front of the field on the outside, ranged up while three wide on the far turn, made a bid at the quarter pole, took the lead in upper stretch, drew clear under the whip until the final sixteenth then was placed under a hand ride to the wire while much the best.

Instilled Regard looked good winning his debut as a three year old by an easy 3¾ lengths.
Arch, the sire of Instilled Regard, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969 in career earnings.
Arch made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3).
As a stallion, Arch’s best Top Lifetime Runners include: Blame, Grand Arch, Arravale, Hymn Book, Art Trader, Les Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine Island.
Instilled Regard has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
PRINCIPE GUILHERME (7-2), who was previously undefeated in two starts for trainer Steve Asmussen, finished second last out to Instilled Regard in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

PRINCIPE GUILHERME was caught in the five path on the first turn, settled on the outside, bumped lightly with KOWBOY KARMA outside the half-mile pole, advanced four wide on the far turn, chased the winner under a drive into the final furlong and proved no match while just able to get the place.

In his first test in stakes competition, a determined Principe Guilherme showed a lot of grit to finish second by a neck to third-place finisher Snapper Sinclair (8-1).
Tapit, the sire of Principe Guilherme, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
With a high A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Principe Guilherme is the best-bred colt in this herd and he has room to improve in his second start of the season.
Undefeated in two starts, NOBLE INDY (5-1) comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher off an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park on January 11. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

 NOBLE INDY raced three wide in first turn under slight restraint then matched strides for lead racing along outside of MISSISSIPPI, continued on equal terms while settled nicely awaiting riders command, shook reins at head of the lane, tapped once right handed, moved away.

Take Charge Indy, the sire of Noble Indy, was a multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 3-4-2 record in 14 starts with $1,103,496 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Take Charge Indy was 1-1-0 in four starts with a second-place finish in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3).
At the age of three, Take Charge Indy won the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a nineteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He went to the finish the season with a third-place finish in the Fayette Stakes (G3) and a second-place finish in the Clark Handicap (G1).
Take Charge Indy made five starts as a four year old with a win in the Alysheba Stakes (G2), a second-place finish in the Skip Away Stakes (G3) and a third-place finish in the Donn Handicap (G1).
A long shot I like is HIGH NORTH (15-1). He comes into this race for trainer Brad Cox with a 1-1-0 record in four starts including a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), easily besting Givemeaminit (15-1) and Bravazo (8-1) who are also entered in the Risen Star (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

HIGH NORTH steadied and was bothered by a loose foe during the first turn, was off the rail entering the lane, rallied up the rail in the stretch with a late gain in the final stages.

High North trailed at the end of the herd until the final turn when he made a nice move along the rail to finish a respectable fourth five lengths behind Kentucky Derby qualifier Enticed (ranked 10th).
Midnight Lute, the sire of Midnight Hawk, was an Eclipse champion male sprinter and two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). During his career, Midnight Lute compiled a 6-3-1 record with $2,690,600 in earnings.
Because of breathing problems, Midnight Lute ran mostly in sprint races and it is unknown if he could have had any classic potential.
As a three year old, Midnight Lute won the Perryville Stakes (G3) and finished third in the Malibu Stakes (G1).
At the age of four, Midnight Lute won the TVG Breeders’ Cup (G1) and Forego Stakes (G1). He finished second in the Hill ‘n’ Dale Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) and San Fernando Breeders’ Cup Stakes.
Midnight Lute raced twice as a five year old and his most notable win was in the Sentient Flight Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
High North has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and a recent bullet work could have him ready to run a good race in his debut as a three year old.
Honorable mention goes to Snapper Sinclair and Supreme Aura (8-1).


This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. Firenze Fire, 24, Jason Servis, $567,500
3. McKinzie, 20, Bob Baffert, $240,000
4. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
5. +Free Drop Billy, 14, Dale Romans, $467,200
6. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
7. Catholic Boy, 14, Jonathan Thomas, $330,000
8. Avery Island, 14, Kiaran McLaughlin, $320,000
9. Instilled Regard, 14, Jerry Hollendorfer, $180,000
10. Enticed, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $180,880
11. Greyvitos, 10, Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
12. Audible, 10, Todd Pletcher, $208,320
13. Mourinho, 10, Bob Baffert, $124,360
14. Lombo, 10, Mike Pender, $90,000
15. Combatant, 8, Steve Asmussen, $110,000
16. Tiz Mischief, 6, Dale Romans, $70,400
17. +Hollywood Star, 5, Dale Romans, $98,500
18. Ayacara (GB), 5, Keith Desormeaux, $63,345
19. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $109,913
20. Principe Guilherme, 4, Steve Asmussen, $40,000
+ = Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male.


1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2. Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro (JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

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