©2018 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to the Empire State
Saturday where FIRENZE
FIRE will go
the starting gate as the 3-5 morning-line favorite in the 148th
running of the $150,000 Jerome Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time for
the race will be 3:50 p.m. ET.
Firenze
Fire comes into this race for trainer Jason Servis with a 3-0-0 record in five
starts including a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes
(G1). Here’s the video and chart call of the
Juvenile:
FIRENZE FIRE
settled off of the inside, entered the stretch four wide but lacked a response
when called upon.
Firenze
Fire is a talented colt with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G3) (video)
and Champagne Stakes (G1) (video).
However, with an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, our
analysis of the Juvenile ranked him 10th and he finished seventh.
Poseidon’s
Warrior,
the sire of Firenze Fire, was a fast, competitive racehorse and graded stakes
winner that raced to the age of four compiling a 7-2-4 record in 21 starts with
$701,147 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Poseidon’s
Warrior was 2-1-1 in five starts with a win in the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity,
a second-place finish in the Grey Planet Stakes and a third-place finish in the
First State Dash Stakes.
As a three-year-old, He was 4-1-1
in nine starts with wins in the East Hanover Stakes, New Castle Stakes and the Le
Bagoter Stakes. He finished second in the Gallant Bob Stakes and third in the
Valley Forge Stakes.
In seven starts as a
four-year-old, Poseidon’s Warrior was 1-0-2 with a win in the Alfred G.
Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) and third-place finishes in the Vosburgh Invitational
Stakes (G1) and the Fabulous Strike Handicap.
Like
most of the horses in the Jerome, Firenze Fire has a low Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive in this
herd. I like the cut back in distance to a mile and if he repeats the form of
his win in the Champagne, he’ll be tough to beat.
A
long shot I like is OLD TIME REVIVAL (10-1) who comes into this race with a
1-0-1 record in three starts with a maiden win last out for trainer Kenneth
Decker. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
OLD TIME REVIVAL
bobbled at the break, was under a firm hold attending the pace three to four
wide outside the leader, moved clear nearing the quarter pole, kicked away
after being let out in upper stretch, was kept alert with one crack of the
right stick leaving the eighth pole and continued eagerly under steady hand
pressure to the wire.
Old
Time Revival looked good breaking his maiden on his third start to win by 4¾
lengths. With a B Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he’s the best-bred colt in this herd.
Brethren,
the sire of Old Time Revival, is half-brother to Super Saver and a graded stakes
winner that raced to the age of five compiling a 5-2-1 record in 18 starts with
$386,465 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, he was undefeated in
two starts. At the age of three, Brethren won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and
finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) en route to an eleventh-place finish
in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
As a four-year-old, Brethren was 1-2-0
in six starts with second place finishes in the Delta Mile Stakes and Tenacious
Handicap. As a five-year-old, he was unplaced in five starts.
Old
Time Revival appears to be an improving colt and a recent bullet work out could
have him ready to take another big step forward.
SEVEN TRUMPETS (3-1) comes into this race for
trainer Dale Romans with a 2-0-0 record in three starts including a half-length
win in his last race. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
SEVEN TRUMPETS
attended the pace along the inside, shifted out and moved up to engage NUCLEAR
OPTION entering the stretch, forged command with a furlong to run and held
BATTLE STATION at bay.
Since
his off-the-board finish in his debut, Seven Trumpets looked good putting together
to back-to-victories to finish the racing season.
Morning Line,
the sire of Seven Trumpets, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a
5-4-2 record in 15 starts with $1,251,300 in career earnings.
Morning Line was unplaced in his only
start as a two-year-old. At the age of three he was 3-3-0 in six starts with a
win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and a second-place finish in the Breeders’
Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
In his debut as a four-year-old,
Morning Line finished third in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3). He went on to compile
a 1-1-1 record in five starts with wins in the Carter Handicap (G1) and a
second-place finish in the Donn Handicap (G1).
With two starts as a five-year-old, Morning
Line was 1-0-0 with a win in the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (G2).
In his only start at the age of six,
Morning Line finished third in the Triple Bend Handicap (G1).
Seven
Trumpets is stepping up in class and he’s never raced in a route race. However,
he has good speed and his D Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® makes him
competitive in this herd.
COLTANDMISSISSIPPI (6-1) comes into this race for trainer
Todd Pletcher with a 2-0-0 record in four starts including a fifth-place finish
in the Smooth Air Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
COLTANDMISSISSIPPI
bumped with HANDSOME FRANCO at the start, pressed the pace inside to the turn, and
weakened after six furlongs.
Pioneerof
the Nile, the sire of Coltandmississippi,
was a pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that
compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two-year-old including a win in the CashCall
Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
(G1).
As a three-year-old, Pioneerof
the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2),
San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in route to a second-place
finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Coltandmississippi
has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive
in this race. However, I’m not too keen on him for the win.
*****
This
is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to
determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of
36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to
the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on
December 17.
In
addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features
the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December
13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting
of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge
(September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy
(October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton
(March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).
2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. +Good
Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. McKinzie, 20,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
3. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
4. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
5. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
6. Firenze Fire, 10, Jason Servis, $427,500
7. +Free
Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
8. Greyvitos, 10,
Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
9. Catholic Boy,
10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
10. The Tabulator,
10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
11. Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
12. Bravazo, 4, D.
Wayne Lukas, $109,913
13. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans,
$88,500
14. Combatant, 4, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
15. Instilled Regard, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer, $60,000
16. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
17. All Out Blitz, 4, Simon Callahan, $20,000
18. Givemeaminit, 2, Dallas Stewart, $152,000
19. My Boy Jack, 2, Keith Desormeaux, $102,000
20. Lone Sailor, 2, Tom Amoss, $71,347
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my
2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
1.
Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion
(USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3.
f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4.
Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5.
Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6.
Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7.
Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8.
The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9.
Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10.
Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11.
Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12.
Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13.
Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14.
Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2.
Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3.
Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur
(JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro
(JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner
Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser
(JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay
(JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75.979
