©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Louisiana, Saturday, where PRINCIPE GUILHERME will go to the starting gate as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 74th running of the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time is 6:03 ET.
Undefeated in two starts, Principe Guilheme has won his last two races for trainer Steve Asmussen by a combined 18 lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:
PRINCIPE GUILHERME was hustled to the front, set the pace in the two path while well rated, responded well when shaken up a bit in upper stretch and drew off under a mild hand ride to win handily.
Principe Guilherme won with ease and is poised to earn some Derby qualifying points with a good run in the LeComte Stakes (G3). With a high A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Principe Guilherme is the best-bred colt in this herd.
Tapit, the sire of Principe Guilherme, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
Principe Guilherme won his last two races with authority and I look for him to run another good race.
INSTILLED REGARD (4-1) comes into this race for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with a 1-2-1 record in four starts including narrow three-quarter-length loss in the controversial Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1). McKinzie, an easy winner of the Sham Stakes (G2) last Saturday, finished second in the Cash Call but was given the win when first-place finisher Solomini was disqualified and placed third. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
INSTILLED REGARD came off the rail into the first turn, chased off the inside, went up four wide on the second turn then bid three deep leaving that turn and into the stretch, fought back between rivals through the drive, was bumped between foes a sixteenth out and also went on gamely.
Instilled Regard was tenacious in the stretch run with McKinzie. The mile split of 1:36.04 and final time of 1:42.57 is what I like to see young colts run on the Derby Trail. However, I thought the disqualification of Solomini was unwarranted.
Arch, the sire of Instilled Regard, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969 in career earnings.
Arch made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3).
As a stallion, Arch’s best Top Lifetime Runners include: Blame, Grand Arch, Arravale, Hymn Book, Art Trader, Les Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine Island.
Instilled Regard has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
PRINCE LUCKY (8-1) comes into this race for trainer Larry Jones with a 3-0-1 record in four starts including a win in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
PRINCE LUCKY, who’s rider did not carry a whip, raced in the five path while between foes, moved out around rivals racing into the stretch, took the lead leaving furlong grounds and drew off under mild handling.
Prince Lucky chased fast fractions and drew away in the stretch to win by 2¾ lengths. He has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him potentially competitive in this herd.
Corinthian, the sire of Prince Lucky, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 6-1-2 record in 12 starts with $1,267,273 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Corinthian went 1-1-0 in two starts. He came back as a three-year-old compiling a 1-0-2 record in three starts including first-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) but he was disqualified to third. Corinthian came out of that race with a hair-line fracture of the left hind leg that knocked him off the Kentucky Derby Trail.
He came back with a debut win as a four-year-old and went on to compile a 4-0-0 record in seven starts with stakes wins in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
Prince Lucky has good speed and I look for him to run a good race.
A long shot I like is LONE SAILOR (15-1) who comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in five starts for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s yet to earn graded stakes honors but he’s been knocking on the door with a third-place finish in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), a second-place finish in the Street Sense Stakes and a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2):
LONE SAILOR was unhurried early on, fanned into the five path in the far turn with a belated gain in the stretch run.
Lone Sailor trailed at the back of the herd until the stretch when he made a run at the leaders and finished fifth, 7¼ lengths behind the victor, Enticed. Lone Sailor has run his best when closer to the pace and new jockey Miguel Mena will need to get him more involved early in the LeComte
Majestic Warrior, the sire of Lone Sailor, compiled a 2-0-0 in seven starts during his racing career with $239,229 in earnings including a win in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and a fourth-place finish in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G2).
Currently Majestic Warrior stands stud in Japan and as a stallion he’s sired numerous graded stakes winners including: Princess of Sylmar, Best Warrior, Lady Sabelia, Declan's Warrior and Mavic.
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Lone Sailor has the breeding to be competitive in this race. However, as a three-year-old, it remains to be seen if he can live up to his breeding.
This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).
2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. McKinzie, 20, Bob Baffert, $240,000
3. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
4. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
5. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
6. Firenze Fire, 10, Jason Servis, $427,500
7. +Free Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
8. Greyvitos, 10, Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
9. Catholic Boy, 10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
10. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
11. Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
12. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $109,913
13. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $88,500
14. Combatant, 4, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
15. Instilled Regard, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer, $60,000
16. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
17. All Out Blitz, 4, Simon Callahan, $20,000
18. Givemeaminit, 2, Dallas Stewart, $152,000
19. My Boy Jack, 2, Keith Desormeaux, $102,000
20. Lone Sailor, 2, Tom Amoss, $71,347
+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
2. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
3. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
8. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
9. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
10. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
11. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269
12. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
13. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
14. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $464,985
2. Ruggero (JPN), 10, Yuichi Shikato, $178,045
3. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $437,283
4. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $106,766
5. Haseno Pyro (JPN), Kenki Sato, $264,191
6. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $99,210
7. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $184,087
8. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75.979