©2016 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
Once
again, it’s time to take a look at the young Thoroughbreds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and prepare the 2017 Kentucky Derby Outlook which is an
annual tradition here at the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds blog. I always
enjoy researching this blog and, by far, my best pick was in December of 2010
when I wrote in my 2011
Kentucky Derby Outlook
that Animal Kingdom would most likely be my Derby
favorite. At that time, Animal Kingdom had a 1-1-0 record in two starts – both
were maiden special weight races on all-weather tracks.
I
had no idea if the connections planned to give Animal Kingdom a classic
campaign. But research of his pedigree showed me that, given a chance, he had
the potential to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred.
Now
that the racing season for two years old has come to an end, let’s take a look
at the current top 20 horses that have qualified for the 2017 Kentucky Derby
(G1).
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Classic
Empire, 30, Mark Casse, $1,459,520
2. Practical
Joke, 14, Chad Brown, $690,000
3. Gunnevera, 10,
Antonio Sano, $738,600
4. Lookin At Lee,
10, Steve Asmussen, $275,600
5. Mastery, 10,
Bob Baffert, $240,000
6. Gormley, 10,
John Sherriffs, $200,000
7. Mo Town, 10,
Tony Dutrow, $180,000
8. McCraken, 10,
Ian Wilkes, $165,048
9. Wild Shot, 6,
Rusty Arnold, II, $87,200
10. No Dozing, 5,
Arnaud Delacour, $85,000
11. Klimt, 4, Bob
Baffert, $380,000
12. Hot Sean, 4,
Bob Baffert, $180,000
13. Dangerfield,
2, Doug O’Neill, $168,500
14. Syndergaard,
4, Todd Pletcher, $160,000
15. Irap, 4, Doug
O’Neill, $60,000
16. Straight
Fire, 2, Keith Desormeaux, $96,000
17. Favorable
Outcome, 2, Chad Brown, $50,345
18. Recruiting
Ready, 2, Horacio DePaz, $43,750
19. Takaful, 2,
Kiaran McLaughlin, $30,000
20. Warrior’s
Club, 2, D. Wayne Lukas, $18,600
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
2016/2017 JAPAN ROAD TO
KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer
1.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki
2.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara
3.
Blane Eclat, 8, Ryo Takei
4.
Lavapies (JPN), 4, Ryuji Okub
At
this time of year, it is very difficult to pick the Kentucky Derby winner when
one only looks at the current list of top 20 horses. And, I documented that
difficulty in my December 26, 2014 blog where I analyzed the results
of 14 years of two-year-old Thoroughbreds on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
The
races used in that analysis were the major end-of-year prep races: the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile (G1), Hollywood Futurity (G1), Remsen (G2), Kentucky Jockey Club
(G2) and Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot (G3).
Historically,
those prep races have produced a few runners that went on to compete in the
Kentucky Derby (G1). However, since 2000 only five horses that competed in
those prep races went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Nyquist was
undefeated in four starts when he won the 2015 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Stakes (G1). He remained undefeated early in his season as a three
year old and won the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to
a 1¼ length victory in the 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Street Sense won the 2006
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1); Super Saver won the 2009
Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and the 2010 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Giacomo finished
second in the 2004 Hollywood Futurity (G1) and won the 2005 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Mine That Bird finished 12th
(dead last) in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and won the 2009 Kentucky
Derby (G1).
Since 2000,
there have been no winners of the Remsen Stakes (G2) that went on to win the
Kentucky Derby and the same is true for the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) which
began racing in 2002. It’s interesting to note that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1) has produced the most runners that went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1):
Nyquist, Street Sense and Mine That Bird.
With that in
mind, let’s look at the current top 20 and see how they fared in the previously
mentioned end-of-year prep races:
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE
CLASSIC EMPIRE: a bay colt by Pioneerof the
Nile out of Sambuca Classica by Cat Thief, currently tops the Kentucky Derby
Leaderboard with 30 points and he’s trained by Doug O’Neil.
Classic
Empire goes into his three year old season with four wins in five starts including
wins in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), Claiborne Breeders Futurity (G1) and
the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Juvenile:
CLASSIC EMPIRE
prompted the pace under rating and to the outside of SYNDERGARRD, drew on near
even terms leaving the three eighths pole, moved to a slim lead a quarter mile
out, kicked clear after being put to drive in upper stretch, kept on under
repeated left handed rousing in the final sixteenth and dug in gamely to fend
off NOT THIS TIME.
Classic
Empire has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® but
his Behavior Index and other potential Data Mining variables make him
competitive. If he stays healthy, I look for him to be in the Derby starting gate.
However, it remains to be seen if he has any classic potential. His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, sired the 2015 Triple Crown
winner American Pharoah.
Pioneerof
the Nile was a good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner
that compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two year old including a win in the CashCall
Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
(G1).
As
a three year old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1)
in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Other
top 20 horses that ran in this race include: third-place finisher Practical Joke (ranked second with 14 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard
points), fourth-place finisher Lookin at Lee (ranked fourth with 10 points), Syndergaard, fifth-place finisher (ranked
14th with four points), seventh-place finisher Gormley (ranked sixth with 10 points)
and Klimt who finished eighth (ranked 11th).
In
addition to Classic Empire, I’m especially interested to see how Gormley and
Practical Joke will fare as three years old on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY
MASTERY: a dark bay, brown colt by
Candy Ride out of Steady Course by Old Trieste, is currently ranked fifth in
the point standings and he’s trained by Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert.
Mastery
was a perfect three wins in three starts as a two year old including victories
in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Futurity:
MASTERY had good
early speed and dueled outside a rival, was fanned out some into the stretch,
inched away under left hand urging, then drifted in and drew off under steady
handling late.
Like
Classic Empire, Mastery also has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®
but his Behavior Index makes him competitive.
Candy Ride, the sire of Mastery, was bred in Argentina and
during his racing career he was undefeated in six starts.
In his maiden
debut as a three year old, Candy Ride won the Premio El Quimico, a six furlong
sprint, by 12 lengths. He went on to finish the season with a win in the one
mile Gran Premio San Isidro (G1) by eight lengths and another win by eight
lengths in the one mile Joaquin S de Anchorena (G1).
As a four year
old, Candy Ride was shipped to America where won his U.S. debut in an 8½
furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Hollywood Park on June 7, 2003. A
month later, he ran on the turf winning the 9 furlong American Handicap (G2)
and in August, Candy Ride was able to carry his speed to a 3¼-length victory in
the 10 furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) in a record time of 1:59.11.
If Mastery
continues to improve as a three year old, he could earn a spot in the Derby
starting gate.
Other top 20
horses that ran in this race are: my long shot pick Irap who finished second (ranked 15th with four
Derby Leaderboard points) and third-place finisher Dangerfield (ranked 13th with four points).
Dangerfield was my long shot pick in the Delta
Downs Jackpot (G3).
REMSEN STAKES
MO TOWN: a bay colt by Uncle Mo out of Grazie
Mille by Bernardini, is ranked seventh with 10 Derby points and he’s trained by
Anthony Dutrow.
Mo
Town compiled a 2-1-0 record in three starts as a two year old including a 2 ½
length win in the nine furlong Remsen Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Remsen:
MO TOWN raced
three wide on the clubhouse bend, rapidly moved up to latch on to TAKAFUL as
the tempo softened during the setting of the second split, was patiently ridden
keeping an eye on that foe all throughout the run on the far turn, narrowed in
after three-quarters had been reached, spun into the lane directly alongside
the one to catch, challenged in earnest when switched over to a drive in the
vicinity of the three-sixteenths marker, took charge during the ensuing
sixteenth, steadily added to the margin, kept busy to the end.
Mo
Town has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score and he was sired by
Uncle Mo,
sire of the 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, Nyquist. Whether Mo Town has any
classic potential remains to be seen. But his Behavior Index makes him
competitive and he if continues to improve as a three year old he could earn a
spot in the Derby starting gate.
Uncle
Mo was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne
Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the
2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.
As
a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in
the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo
was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed
as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.
Other
top 20 horses that ran in this race include: second-place finisher No
Dozing (ranked
10th with 5 points) Takaful (ranked 19th with
two points). I’m very interested to see how those two fare as three year olds,
especially Takaful who has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and the
potential, if he lives up to his breeding, to be competitive in the Derby.
KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES
MCCRAKEN: a bay colt by Ghostzapper out
of Ivory Empress by Seeking the Gold, is ranked eighth with 10 points and he’s
trained by Ian Wilkes.
Like
Mastery, McCracken was a perfect three wins in three starts as a two year old
including victories in the Street Sense Stakes and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
(G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Jockey Club:
MCCRACKEN was
unhurried early, swung into the six path in the far turn, made a bid four wide
down the lane, edged clear past the leader while ridden out to the finish.
Like
many of the horses in the top 20, McCraken has a low Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score and his Behavior Index makes him competitive.
Ghostzapper, a 2012 Hall of Fame inductee
and the sire of McCraken, was an
incredibly talented, multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 9-0-1 record
in 11 starts with $3,466,120 in career earnings.
As
a two year old, Ghostzapper won his maiden special weight debut by nine lengths
and was 1-0-0 in two starts. At the age of three, Ghostzapper won the Vosburgh
Stakes (G1) and finished third in the King’s Bishop (G1), compiling a 3-0-1
record in four starts.
As
a four year old, Ghostzapper was undefeated in four starts winning the Tom Fool
Handicap (G2), Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3), Woodward Stakes
(G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (G1). In addition,
Ghostzapper was selected as the 2004 Eclipse Horse of the Year and Eclipse Champion
Older Horse.
In
his only start as a five year old, Ghostzapper was a 6¼ length winner of the
one mile Metropolitan Handicap (G1).
Other
top 20 horses that ran in this race include: Wild
Shot (ranked
ninth with six points) and Warrior’s Club (ranked 20th with two
points). Wild Shot was my long shot pick in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Stakes (G1) at Keeneland and he paid $18.60 for the show. With an A Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score, I’m especially interested to see how Wild
Shot fares on the trail as a three year old.
DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT
GUNNEVERA: a chestnut colt by Dialed In
out of Unbridled Rage by Unbridled is ranked third with 10 Derby points and
he’s trained by Antonio Sano.
As
a two year old, Gunnevera compiled a 3-1-0 record in six start including wins
in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3). Here’s
the video and chart call of the Jackpot:
GUNNEVERA outrun
early, advanced outside up the backstretch, circled rivals entering the second
turn, gained the margin at the eighth pole and steadily drew clear in a solid
effort
Gunnevera
has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. If he continues to improve as a
three year old, he could, perhaps, make it into the Derby starting Gate.
In
his only start as a two year old Dialed
In, the sire of
Gunnevera, won a 6½-furlong maiden special weight by a half a length at
Churchill Downs in November 2010. As a three year old, Dialed In won the one
mile Holy Bull Stakes, finished second in a 9-furlong Allowance Optional
Claiming race at Gulfstream Park, and won the Florida Derby (G1) by a head over
Shackleford en route to an eighth place-finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Other
top 20 horses that ran in this race include: second-place finisher Hot Sean (ranked 12th
with four Derby points) and third-place finisher Dangerfield (ranked 13th
with four points).
(Three
horses that did not compete in one of the traditional end-of-year prep races
include Favorable Outcome who finished 12th
in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), Straight Fire who finished third in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1)
and Recruiting Ready who finished third in the
Buffalo Man Stakes.)
CATTLEYA SHO
The
Cattleya Sho is not a traditional end-of-year prep race. But since this is the
first year that Churchill Downs has included it in the Japan Road to the
Kentucky Derby, I’m including it in this analysis.
MONT SAINT LEGAME (JPN): a chestnut colt by Came
Home out of Julia Biko (JPN) by Jade Robbery tops the Japan Leaderboard with 40
points and he’s trained by Koji Maki.
Mont
Saint Legame (JPN) is undefeated in two starts including the one mile Cattleya Sho
Stakes. Here’s the video of that race.
One
horse that intrigues me a lot from this race is the second-place finisher, Caucus. He has an A Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score and he’s owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al
Maktoum. Also, his trainer, Hideaki Fujiwara, is ranked seventh in the Japan Racing
Association trainer standings.
*****
So,
there’s how the Japanese runners and current top 20 fared in their end-of-year
prep races. In my profile analysis, I have not taken into account the horses
competing in Japan but will include the top qualifier if he comes to America to
compete in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Below
is a listing of the current top 20 ranked according to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score:
Of
the current top 20, only Takaful in chart number one has an A+
profile ranking while Gormley and Wild
Shot both have
an A ranking. No Dozing and Straight Fire have a B ranking while Looking at Lee, Recruiting Ready, Mo
Town, Classic Empire and Gunnevera have a C ranking. All the
other horses have a low profile score.
Our
research, which is documented in my numerous blogs and on my website,
shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score (Chart One) which is a measurement of the breeding
influences found in the five-generation pedigree.
In
addition to the breeding influences found in the pedigree, horse behavior is
also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the racetrack
and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is the
addition of the Behavior Index which
I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes (G2).
The
Behavior Index is proving to be a
very valuable analytical tool, and, with
its addition to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral
analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion
Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.
For
example, in chart number two McKraken, Mo Town, Gunnevera, Mastery, Practical Joke and Dangerfield all originally have low
profile scores but they move up in the ranking when you add the Behavior Index to their profile score. Some
horses that have low profile scores can be moved up because their Behavior
Index makes them competitive, enabling them to sometimes win races that are
shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance.
In
addition, if you also add Data Mining
to the profile score and Behavior Index of
Classic Empire he moves to the top of chart number two. Time will tell if
adding Data Mining to his profile
score is justifiable. In the final analysis, there could also be other horses,
like Mastery, that could benefit from adding Data Mining to their score.
Horses
with high profile scores like Takaful, Gormley and Wild Shot, I’ll be watching closely
to see if they live up to their breeding. If they fail to run close to their
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score, then the issue[s] preventing them
from reaching their full potential needs to be investigated. And there can be
many contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.
In addition to the top 20 qualifiers
previously mentioned, there are a lot of other unranked horses that could
perhaps have an impact on the Derby Trail. Below is a top 10 list of horses I’m
following that have an A+ Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
NEED TO QUALIFY FOR TOP TWENTY
1. Seau:
a bay colt by Distorted Humor out of Supercharger by A.P. Indy
Race Record:
0-1-2 (4)
Trainer: Jerry
Hollendorfer
In
Training: Santa Anita Park
2. Champions
Maternal: a chestnut colt by Giant’s Causeway out of Danceinthesunlight by
A.P. Indy
Race Record: 0-0-1
(2)
Trainer: John
Servis
In Training: Palm
Meadows Training Center
3. Bodie
Ramsey: a bay colt by Bodemeister out of Elaganter by A.P. Indy
Race Record: 0-0-0
(1)
Trainer: Michael
Maker
In Training: Belmont
Park
4. Society
Beau: a bay
colt by Curlin out of Seattle Society by A.P. Indy
Race Record: 1-3-2
(7)
Trainer: Neil
Howard
In Training: Fair
Grounds
5. Win
With Pride: a dark bay colt by Distorted Humor out of Love and Pride by
A.P. Indy
Race Record: 1-0-1
(3)
Trainer: Todd
Pletcher
In Training:
Belmont Park
6. Desert
Frontier: a dark bay colt by Empire Maker out of Reve de Fille by Storm Cat
Race Record: 0-0-0
(1)
Trainer: Arnaud
Delacour
In Training:
Gulfstream Park
7. Mr.
Meister: a bay
colt by Bodemeister out of A.P. Double Cat by A.P. Indy
Race Record: 1-0-1
(2)
Trainer: Bill
Mott
In Training: Payson
Park Training Center
8. Everybodyluvsrudy:
a chestnut colt by Union Rags out of Philly’s Philly by A.P. Indy
Race Record: 1-3-0
(5)
Trainer: Rudy
Rodriquez
In Training:
Aqueduct
9. Clearly
Super: a chestnut colt by Super Saver out of Pretty Clear by Mr. Prospector
Race Record: 0-0-0
(1)
Trainer: Kenny
McPeek
In Training:
Oaklawn
10. Heaven
Is Waiting: a dark bay gelding by Creative Cause out of Gates of Eden by
Kingmambo
Race Record:
1-0-0 (3)
Trainer: Chad
Brown
In Training: Palm
Meadows Training Center
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Also,
there are some horses with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® that are still in training and should
make their first start early in 2017. They have a lot of catching up to do but
they have the breeding to have an impact on the Derby trail. Here’s a list of six
that I’m following.
1.
Glory
or Nothing: a bay colt by Tapit out of Dress Rehearsal by Galileo (IRE)
In Training: Payson
Park Training Center
2. American
Icon: a bay colt by Bernardini out of Acoma by Empire Maker
In Training: Fair
Grounds
3. Reach
the World: a gray, roan colt by Tapit out of Reach The Stars (IRE) by
Galileo (IRE)
In Training:
Santa Anita
4. Indy
Wars: a bay colt by Bernardini out of Goldena Podkove by War Pass
In Training:
Goldmark
5. Tin
Drum: a chestnut colt by Super Saver out of Danzig Point by Point Given
In Training: Belmont
Park
6. Saved
At Sea: a dark bay colt by Super Saver out of Stormy Sea by Storm Cat
In Training: Fair
Grounds
It remains to be seen if
any of the honorable mentions or horses that have yet to qualify for the top 20
can earn a spot in the Derby starting gate. However, they have the breeding to
be a factor on the Derby trail and I’ll be watching their progress in 2017.
