Fountain Of Youth Stakes Racing Roundup

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to sunny Florida, Saturday, where Mohayman, winner of the Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2), will go the starting gate as the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the 74^th running of $400,000 Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

Undefeated in four starts, Mohaymen comes into this race for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin off of an impressive 3½ length win in his debut as a three year old in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MOHAYMEN was reserved just off the leaders from between foes after being bumped at the break, moved up to offer a bid nearing the half, opened a clear lead approaching the stretch and drew off through the lane with little need of urging.

His finish time of 1:42.07 was pretty good for his first start of the season and it gives him a good foundation to build on going forward.

Mohaymen is a sire-line descendant of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has the breeding to be competitive in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2).

Tapit, the sire of Mohaymen, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Regular jockey Junior Alvarado returns to the irons and a bullet work out on February 12 could have Mohaymen ready to run a good race.

The horse that interests me most in this race is Zulu who’s the morning-line second choice at 3-1 odds. I wrote about him in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Zulu has the best breeding of all the horses in this race.

He’s trained by Todd Pletcher and he comes into the Fountain of Youth with two wins in two starts, including an impressive 7¼ length romp in his last race. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ZULU was away well then rated up close just off early leader, inched up leaving backstretch and put head in front at five sixteenths pole, asked for more in upper stretch, continued with response then kicked in willingly, opened up on field and finished well clear.

Bernardini, the sire of Zulu, did not race as a 2-year-old but at the age of three, he was a fast colt that won races from a mile to 10-furlongs.

He broke his maiden on his second start running a mile at Gulfstream Park in 1:35.57. That’s the kind of time I like to see a young colt run in a mile. Bernardini went on to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred, compiling a 6-1-0 record in eight starts with $3,060,480 in career earnings.

Notable races won by Bernardini in route to becoming the 2006 Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male include: Withers Stakes (G3, 8-furlongs), Preakness Stakes (G1, 9½-furlongs), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2, 8½ furlongs), Travers Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs), Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs) and he finished second, a length behind Invasor, winner of the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1, 10 furlongs).

It remains to be seen if Zulu can step up to be successful in stakes competition. But, if he lives up to his breeding, he’ll be tough in this race.

Awesome Speed (4-1) and Awesome Banner (7-2) are fast colts and if they can carry their speed beyond a mile, they could, perhaps, get up for the win or factor in the exotics. However, I’m not too keen on them for the win.

One never knows if a young Thoroughbred will live up to his breeding and there can be many factors that contribute to a horse not running to his Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® – Effinex is a good example of that. And, sometimes horses with a low profile score can win races that are shorter than the classic 10 furlong distance. Here’s a look at the profile ranking of the horses in this race:

1. Zulu

2. Mohaymen

3. Awesome Speed

4. Awesome Banner

5. Fellowship

6. Golden Ray

*****

The winner of Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.

Halfway through the Championship series, beginning with the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 26, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Gun Runner, 51, Steve Asmussen, $249,200

2. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,700,000

3. Mor Spirit, 24, Bob Baffert, $336,800

4. Mo Tom, 22, Tom Amoss $288,326

5. Mohaymen, 20, Kiaran McLaughlin, $514,830

6. Forevamo, 20, All Stall, Jr., $210,000

7. Sunny Ridge, 18, Jason Servis, $505,600

8. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $980,000

9. Flexibility, 15, Chad Brown, $232,500

10. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000

11. Greenpointcrusader, 14, Dominick Schettino, $369,300

12. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130

13. Collected, 11, Bob Baffert, $105,000

14. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080

15. Suddenbreakingnews, 10, Donnie Von Hemel, $410,000

16. Cocked and Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840

17. Discreetness, 10, William “Jinks” Fires, $246,153

18. Frank Conversation, Doug O’Neill, $199,000

19. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375

20. Vorticity, 8, James Lawrence II, $150,000

Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Louisiana, the Pelican State, where Airoforce will go to the starting gate as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in what appears to be a wide open 44^th running of the $400,000 Veterans Ford Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time is 6:21 PM ET.

Airoforce comes into this race with a 3-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Mark Casse, including a win in the Bourbon Stakes (G3), a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Here’s a look at the video and chart call of his last race:

AIROFORCE was unhurried early, fanned into the five path in the far turn, made a bid in the stretch three wide then took over command swiftly and cleared the field in the final stages.

Airoforce will be making his debut as a three year old in this race and like many of the other horses on the Kentucky Derby Trail he has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. However, his Behavior Index and other Data Mining variables have made him competitive.

Colonel John, the sire of Airoforce, was a very competitive colt that compiled a 2-2-0 record in four starts as a two year old including a first-place finish in the Real Quiet Stakes and a second-place finish in the CashCall Futurity Stakes (G1), both at 8½ furlongs.

As a three year old, Colonel John won the Sham Stakes (G3) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), both at nine furlongs, in route to a sixth-place finish in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He later went on to win the 10 furlong Travers Stakes and closed his three-year-old season with a 3-0-1 record in seven starts.

Regular jockey Julien Leparoux retains the mount on Airoforce and that’s a positive. He’s ridden Airoforce in all four of his previous starts and I look for them to run another good race in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

A long shot I like in this race is Its All Relevant (15-1). He comes into this race with a 1-2-1 record in six starts for trainer Dominick Schettino including an impressive 8½ length romp in the slop in his last race. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ITS ALL RELEVANT lead the way heading out of chute, continued to set pace throughout backstretch, opened up on field by clear margins without any urging and finished wrapped up in the end.

This was an impressive maiden win and debut as a three year old for Its All Relevant who struggled as a two year old, compiling a 0-2-1 record in five starts. In November of last year, Its All Relevant showed signs of improvement when he finished second to Shagaf, a young colt I wrote about in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook.

Hard Spun, the sire of Its All Relevant, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old, including wins in the Port Penn Stakes and Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. As a three year old on the Derby trail, Hard spun was 2-0-0 in three starts including wins in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Lane’s End Stakes (G2).

Hard Spun went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and rounded out his classic campaign with a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Its All Relevant has the best breeding of all the horses in this race. He has room to improve in his second start of the season and if he makes another move forward he could be very tough in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

In five starts, Mo Tom (3-1) has always finished in the money and he comes into this race with a 3-0-2 record for trainer Tom Amoss, including a win in the Street Sense Stakes, a third-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and a win in the LeComte Stakes (G3). Here’s a look at the video and chart call of the LeComte:

MO TOM hit the gate at the start, bumped soundly with FISH TRAPPE ROAD nearing the first turn, raced in the two path early on that bend then dropped to the rail, settled well off the pace, moved closer while inside early on the far turn, shifted three wide at the five-sixteenths, angled out in upper stretch, came under a left-handed whip outside the furlong marker, rallied on the outside and closed strongly to win going away.

Mo Tom is a proven competitor. He’s a sire-line descendant of the Nasrullah Ancestral Herd and, despite his low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, his Behavior Index makes him competitive on the Derby Trail.

Uncle Mo, the sire of Mo Tom, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.

As a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.

Jockey Corey Lanerie retains the mount and that a positive. He’s ridden Mo Tom in his last four races and I look for the pair to run a good race Saturday.

Tom’s Ready (8-1) comes into this race with 1-3-0 record in seven starts for trainer Dallas Stewart. He finished second to Mo Tom in the LeComte and here’s a look at the video and chart call of his last race:

TOM'S READY went three then four wide on the first turn, settled on the outside, was ridden along while four then five wide on the far turn, advanced coming to the quarter-pole, rallied to the lead in upper stretch, led into the final sixteenth under the whip but was overtaken while able to get the place.

Tom’s Ready also has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and, like Mo Tom, he was sired by Uncle Mo. Tom’s Ready has room to improve in his second start of the season and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to run a good race.

Honorable mention goes to Bistraya (15-1). He’s ran a mile faster than any of the horses in this race, however, it remains to be seen if he can carry that speed the added distance in this race and still be competitive.

*****

The pace on the Derby Trail really begins to quicken on February 20 with the Risen Star Stakes (G2) as the debut of the Championship Series, which consists of 16 races. The winner of those races will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.

Halfway through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 26, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,700,000

2. Mor Spirit, 24, Bob Baffert, $336,800

3. Mohaymen, 20, Kiaran McLaughlin, $514,830

4. Sunny Ridge, 18, Jason Servis, $505,600

5. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $980,000

6. Flexibility, 15, Chad Brown, $232,500

7. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000

8. Greenpointcrusader, 14, Dominick Schettino, $369,300

9. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130

10. Mo Tom, 21, Tom Amoss $188,326

11. Collected, 11, Bob Baffert, $105,000

12. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080

13. Suddenbreakingnews, 10, Donnie Von Hemel, $410,000

14. Cocked and Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840

15. Discreetness, 10, William “Jinks” Fires, $246,153

16. Frank Conversation, Doug O’Neill, $199,000

17. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375

18. Vorticity, 8, James Lawrence II, $150,000

19. Rated R Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200

20. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Graham Motion, $46,809

Southwest Stakes Racing Roundup

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs, Arkansas, Monday, where Hall of Fame Trainer, Bob Baffert, will send Collected to the starting gate as the (5-2) morning-line favorite in the 51^st running of the $500,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

With a 2-1-0 record in three starts for Baffert, Collected comes into this race off of a win in the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park last month. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

COLLECTED had speed five wide then dueled four wide on the first turn, stalked outside on the backstretch, bid again three deep then took the lead outside a rival a quarter mile out, inched away in the stretch and proved best under energetic handling.

In the Sham, Collected and his stablemate, Let’s Meet in Rio, were two of my picks and, I also liked Dressed in Hermes who was scratched. Since that race, both Let’s Meet in Rio and Dressed in Hermes finished out of the money in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).

Collected is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. However, his Behavior Index indicates that he has the potential to be competitive in stakes competition.

City Zip, the sire of Collected, was an good sprinter as a two year old, winning the Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2), Saratoga Special (G2) and the Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, as a three year old on the 2001 Kentucky Derby Trail, his best finish was a third place to Songandaprayer in the 8½-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1).

Despite his propensity for sprinting, at stud City Zip has sired his share of numerous, good, sprinters as well as several middle-distance runners such as Acting Zippy, Dayatthespa, With a City and Personal Diary.

The coupled entry of Suddenbreakingnews  and Synchrony (6-1) are two horses I like in this race and they will be sent to the starting gate by trainer Donnie Von Hemel.

 Suddenbreakingnews is a horse I wrote about in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook, and, with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s one of the best bred horses in this race.

To date, Suddenbreakingnews has compiled a 2-3-0 record in five starts and his only stakes win was in the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington Park. In December, he finished second in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS was allowed to settle then rallied on the far turn, was three wide in the stretch and gaining ground but lost the head bob on the wire.

At the top of the stretch, Suddenbreakingnews did not have any running room but he finally managed to squeeze between horses in the final strides to narrowly lose by a head bob to Discreetness. If he had a clear path, I think that he would have won easily and look for him to move forward off of that effort.

Mineshaft, the sire of Suddenbreakingnews, was an outstanding route racer who compiled a 10-3-1 record in 18 lifetime starts. He began his racing career in England at the age of three, winning a maiden weight for age race at Newmarket. In November, Mineshaft was shipped to America where he won two more races to close out the season with a 3-1-1 record in nine starts.

As a four year old, Mineshaft really proved himself as a champion and compiled a 7-2-0 record in route to earning Horse of the Year and Champion Older Horse honors. In nine starts, Mineshaft won the New Orleans Handicap (G2), Ben Ali Stakes (G3), Pimlico Special Handicap (G1), Suburban Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1) and the Jockey Club Gold Club Stakes (G1).

Suddenbreakingnews has posted several good work outs at Oaklawn including a bullet work on January 25 in preparation for his debut as a three year old. I look for him to run a good race.

Synchrony is 2-1-1 in four starts and he’s stepping up in class to graded stakes competition. He comes into this race with a third-place finish in the Smarty Jones Strakes on January 18. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SYNCHRONY, void of early foot, began a steady gain before a half, moved inside second turn, continued to make up ground into the lane, leaned on mid-stretch, finished up willingly the final sixteenth to be getting to the top two.

Synchrony was one of the horses I liked in this race and his third-place finish was only two lengths shy of victory. With a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Synchrony should be competitive on the Derby Trail and I look for him to be competitive in his second start of the season.

Tapit, the sire of Synchrony, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan returns for the mount and a string of several sharp work outs could have him ready to run a good race.

Discreetness (6-1) is another colt I wrote about in my 2016 Kentucky Derby Outlook. To date, he’s compiled a 4-0-0 record in six starts for trainer William Fires, including a narrow win by a neck in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call:

DISCREETNESS broke out, bobbled, raced forwardly, four wide both turns, pursued the leaders into the far bend, briskly roused, bid, lengthy stretch duel, determined.

Discreetness, like Synchrony, was also one of my picks in this race and his final time of 1:38.05 was an improvement over his time of 1:39.15 in the Springboard Mile Stakes.

Discreetness has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating and his Behavior Index indicates he’ll be competitive in his second start of the season.

Discreet Cat, the sire of Discreetness, was a late bloomer winning his only start as a 2-year-old in a 6-furlong sprint at Saratoga Racecourse. At the age of three, Discreet Cat was a speedy colt whose best distance was at a mile but was able to stretch out and win the 8½-furlong UAE Derby.

Jockey Jon Court returns to the irons and two recent, bullet work outs could have Discreetness ready to run a good race.

Whitmore (5-1) and Luna de Loco (20-1) could also be factors in this race. I liked Whitmore in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) but he finished a disappointing fifth in that race. His most recent effort was a 3¼ length win in an optional claiming race at Oaklawn on January 16. Here’s the video of that race.

Whitmore has room to improve in his second start as a three year old.

Lightly-raced Luna de Loco finished fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, just 2¾ lengths shy of victory in his debut as a three year old. With a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Luna de Loco also has a Behavior Index that indicates he could be competitive and he has room to improve in his second start of the season.

  

*****

The Southwest Stakes (G3) is the last race in Kentucky Derby Prep Season consisting of 19 races worth 10 points each to the winner. The second-place finisher in those races received 4 points, the third-place finisher received 2 points and the fourth-place finisher received one point.

The pace on the Derby Trail really begins to quicken on February 20 with the Risen Star Stakes (G2) as the debut of the Championship Series, which consists of 16 races. The winner of those races will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.

Halfway through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 26, the points will increase to 100 points for the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for fourth place.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000

2. Mor Spirit, 24, Bob Baffert, $336,800

3. Mohaymen, 20, Kiaran McLaughlin, $514,830

4. Sunny Ridge, 18, Jason Servis, $505,600

5. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000

6. Flexibility, 15, Chad Brown, $232,500

7. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000

8. Greenpointcrusader, 14, Dominick Schettino, $369,300

9. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130

10. Mo Tom, 21, Tom Amoss $188,326

11. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080

12. Cocked and Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840

13. Discreetness, 10, William “Jinks” Fires, $245,042

14. Frank Conversation, Doug O’Neill, $199,000

15. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375

16. Collected, 10, Bob Baffert, $80,000

17. Vorticity, 8, James Lawrence II, $150,000

18. Rated R Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200

19. Kasseopia, 4, Graham Motion, $46,809

20. Toews On Ice, 4, Bob Baffert, $228,900